Summary of Events-U.N. Weapons Inspectors and Iraq-11/123/97 to 11/18/97

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, November 13, 1997

THURSDAY DEVELOPMENTS

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Despite a United Nations Security Council resolution that was passed on Wednesday placing travel sanctions on Iraqi officials, the government in Baghdad on Thursday once again barred Americans from U.N. arms inspections in the Middle Eastern country.

In what has become a daily ritual, the inspectors were unable to carry out their work because of the 10th rebuff in 11 days.

On Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution banning travel by Iraqi officials responsible for disrupting the U.N. inspections and warned of unspecified "further measures" if Iraq did not rescind its 29 October order to exclude Americans from U.N. teams. Iraq immediately rejected and condemned the resolution.

U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Richardson told the Security Council on Wednesday, "The United States looks forward to the day when the sanctions against Iraq can be lifted. It is not our desire to see Iraq, a land of past greatness which could be great again, permanently saddled with U.N. sanctions. But Iraq must first comply fully and unconditionally with the requirements of relevant Security Council resolutions. Iraq has known this all along."

Richardson added, "There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and the Iraqi leaders control the switch."

But in Baghdad, there was no sign of any inclination to back down. The headlines on all Iraqi newspapers read: "Iraq rejects the unjust American resolution!"

The ruling Baath party newspaper al-Thawra said: "Under the leadership of Saddam Hussein, we will restore our rights stripped off by the Americans and their allies."

Another newspaper, al-Qadissiya, threatened in an editorial that Iraq would "confront the new American unjust resolution." But it did not say how.

In New York on Wednesday, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz rejected the Security Council resolution, saying it was adopted as a result of U.S. "pressure and blackmail."

Despite the unified Security Council vote and strong condemnation of Iraqi actions, Russia, France, China and Egypt have served notice that the resolution did not endorse the use of force, or else they would not have backed it. Russia's ambassador to the U.N. Sergei Lavrov said, "Military action is not going to be supported by the Security Council."

Short of a hostile act by Iraq against American personnel or forces in the area, the United States now seems content to take diplomatic rather than military action to resolve the standoff. A buildup of expectations of unilateral U.S. military action to break the impasse with Iraq would only play into the hands of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who appears intent on driving a wedge between the United States and its allies.

President Clinton told a Democratic fund-raising dinner Wednesday night in emphasizing the need for U.N. inspections in Iraq. "We don't want a bunch of terrorists with laboratories in briefcases going from airport to airport wreaking havoc in the world."

But in the short run, unless Iraq tries something like shooting at a U.S. surveillance plane, the United States is likely, for the time being, to settle for diplomatic and economic moves.

Even an Iraqi decision to make good on its threat to expel the American members of the U.N. weapons inspection team probably will not elicit a military response.

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Friday, November 14, 1997

FRIDAY DEVELOPMENTS

Amman, Jordon (Emergencynet News)--The six U.S. arms inspectors who were expelled from Iraq reached the Jordanian capital of Amman on Friday after driving across the desert. The Americans were forbidden by the Iraqis from waiting for the plane that carried other U.N. inspectors out of the troubled Middle Eastern country.

Angered by Iraq's order to expel the Americans, chief weapons inspector Richard Butler decided to withdraw the rest of his inspections staff from the country rather than let Iraq dictate the nationalities of his inspection teams.

Butler admitted on Thursday that pulling all inspectors out would weaken the United Nations' ability to ensure that Iraq is not building banned weapons. But Butler said the United Nations could not tolerate "this illegal separation of nationalities."

In New York City on Friday morning, former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger said that it was his opinion that a sustained bombing campaign was the only way to make the Iraqi government change its mine. He called for a long, intensive bombing campaign that would bomb various targets including Saddam's Revolutionary Guards.

The British government announced on Friday that it was putting a squadron of Royal Air Force Harrier GR-7 warplanes on 48-hour notice to back up its forces deployed around the Gulf. No decision had yet been taken to send either the planes or the aircraft carrier Invincible to the Gulf.

A British government official said the move was "a sensible precautionary measure." Britain said on Thursday that the Invincible would be moved from the Caribbean to the Mediterranean.

The RAF's No. 1 squadron of six Harrier vertical take-off jets, equipped with laser-guided bombs, could be ordered to join Invincible in Gibraltar.

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Saturday, November 15, 1997

SATURDAY DEVELOPMENTS

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The United States on Friday ordered a second U.S. aircraft carrier and its battle group to move within striking distance of Iraq as diplomatic options dwindled. In a sign of apparent frustration, President Bill Clinton said Iraq's expulsion of U.N. arms inspectors could ensure Iraq would stay under sanctions as long as its leader remained in power.

The aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73, Nimitz Class) will sail from its present location in the Mediterranean to join the carrier USS Nimitz in the Persian Gulf. It will take the George Washington about a week to make the move.

Any speculation of an imminent military attack was played down by officials in the White House on Friday. One unnamed official said, "A lot of diplomacy is going to have to play out over the next week."

U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen said, "There is no deadline. There should not be any countdown. We're not looking to bomb anyone back into either a Stone Age or any sort of submission, but we're seeking to emphasize the fact that we expect compliance with the resolutions."

The USS George Washington is accompanied by a cruiser, a destroyer and an attack submarine, all of which can fire cruise missiles, as well as a refueling ship. The depolyment would put more than 300 U.S. warplanes in the Gulf region. A supply ship with additional cruise missiles was getting underway from the U.S. and will be sent to the Gulf region.

Diplomatic options are said to be dwindling. At the United Nations, Security Council members delayed until nearly midnight on Thursday to adopt a condemnation of Iraq that the United States wanted.

The United States is trying to build a case for possible military action by characterizing Iraq as bent on rebuilding an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.

At the Pentagon, U.S. Army General Henry Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "This is the crux of the problem. Weapons of mass destruction -- and by this I mean the deadly nerve gases and the contagious diseases -- are a serious threat not only to the countries of the region but also the U.S. and coalition forces serving there today."

The Pentagon believes Iraq has 80 to 100 chemical weapons facilities; about 100 such facilities for biological weapons and approximately 20 nuclear weapons facilities. A senior defense official said that it was "not logical to believe" U.S. bomb strikes could destroy all those sites, which are sprinkled throughout Iraq.

A U.S. Defense Department report dated 8 November said: "We believe that Iraq maintains a small force of Scud-type missiles, a small stockpile of chemical and biological munitions, and the capability to quickly resurrect biological and chemical weapons production. Baghdad has tried to create an impression of cooperation (with the United Nations) while concealing essential information on the scope of its (weapons of mass destruction) programs."

At the White House, President Clinton called the spread of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons "one of the three or four most significant security threats. We've got to stop it."

In Baghdad, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammad Saeed al-Sahaf said Iraq was not seeking military confrontation. He said, "We are requesting that our grievances ... be heard, be discussed and a serious dialogue be opened in order to get rid of the current situation of sanctions imposed on Iraq for more than seven years."

Sahaf was asked how close a military confrontation with the United States was? He replied, "Well, any moment. This would not surprise us at all. The question is ... how near the Americans and their stooges, the British, are to launching an aggression against Iraq." He called on the Security Council to stop parroting "American rhetoric."

The Iraqi Foreign Minister also said that Iraqis were also volunteering to act as human shields for factories and government establishments in and around Baghdad. State-run television told Iraqis they were facing the "great and eternal mother of battles."

A student at Baghdad University said, "We are peaceful people ... But if the Americans want to destroy us than we have no other option but to fight -- and we will fight." The student must of been too small of a child to remember how the Iraqis surrendered en masse during the 1991 Gulf War.

The United Kingdom on Friday said it is also moving its aircraft carrier HMS Invincible to the Mediterranean from the Caribbean, and announced that it was putting a squadron of Harrier GR-7 planes on 48-hour notice to back up its forces deployed around the Gulf.

Iraq said on Saturday no military action against it would force Baghdad to rescind its decision to ban Americans from U.N. arms inspections. The government newspaper al-Jumhouriya said in a front-page editorial: "One aggression, two or even ten means nothing but more sacrifices (by the people) equal to those of one, two or three months caused by the unjust embargo." The editorial added that the military "option will only cause destruction in certain parts of Iraq but it would not be able to change the current situation or change the firm facts."

In another editorial, Al-Jumhouriya said that United Nations chief arms inspector Richard Butler was trying to escalate tension in order to prepare the ground for a military strike against Iraq. The paper said: "Butler's decision to pull out non-American inspectors has assured, without any doubt, that he is trying to escalate the crisis instead of cooling it down."

United Nations Security Council members criticized Butler on Thursday night for pulling all the teams without first consulting them. Butler said he had no choice but to pull out his team, otherwise Iraq would have had its way.

The Iraqi newspaper Babil, owned by Saddam's demented son, Odai, slammed the Security Council in an editorial on Saturday. It asked: "Why should the Security Council accept being a puppet of America and let the Americans play havoc with the world security?"

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Sunday, November 16, 1997

SUNDAY DEVELOPMENTS

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - In the 19th day of the crisis over Iraq's expulsion of American U.N. arms inspectors, Baghdad and Washington traded bitter accusations on Sunday. Iraq accused the United States of playing for time while it built up forces in the Gulf. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright charged Iraq of lies and obstruction in the six years since the Gulf War.

The al-Thawra newspaper said on Sunday: "America is impeding any dialogue between Iraq and the (U.N.) Security Council...It is investing in the time of diplomacy in order to complete its military preparations."

Albright, who is in Qatar on a diplomatic mission, said, "When the Gulf War ended six years ago, the world spelled out in U.N. Security Council resolutions what Iraq had to do to return to the family of nations. Unfortunately for the Iraqi people, instead of meeting these requirements, for six years Saddam Hussein has lied, delayed, obstructed and tried to deceive."

French president Jacques Chirac said on Sunday that he supported diplomatic efforts to end the crisis with Iraq. At a news conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, Chirac said, "The way their leaders are acting at the moment is unacceptable and...I condemn it."

The U.S. aircraft carrier George Washington resumed sailing through the Suez Canal on its way to the Gulf on Sunday after fog delayed it for several hours. The nuclear-powered carrier and its escort ships passed the city of Ismailia at noon (1000 GMT) after being held up earlier in the northern half of the 100-mile canal.

Kuwait on Sunday added its voice to an Arab chorus opposed to military action against its former invader Iraq in Baghdad's confrontation with the United Nations. Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who is also deputy prime minister, said, "We have not supported any military action against Iraq."

Former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eageleburger said on Sunday that Kuwait needs "an attitude adjustment."

The Sunday Times of London was reporting on Sunday that Iraq has been manufacturing poisonous gas at a secret location in Sudan. The newspaper, citing intelligence and diplomatic sources in Uganda, said that Sudan has been working together with Iraq to produce and stockpile mustard gas. The gas is being made at Wau in southwest Sudan.

The report claims Sudanese armed forces already have used the gas twice in a civil war against rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army. Production of the relatively inexpensive gas began in 1995 following a visit by an Iraqi military delegation that included the army's leading chemical weapons expert. Under terms of the alleged deal, Iraq supplied pilots and weapons to help the Sudan war effort.

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, November 17, 1997

MONDAY DEVELOPMENTS

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - An anti-American protest was held in front of Iraq's parliament on Monday. Each of its 250 members charmingly wrote: "Down with America" as Saddam Hussein's government showed little indication of backing down in its standoff over U.N. weapons inspectors. The one-hour protest was meant to show support for Saddam.

Iraqi Parliament Speaker Saadoun Hammadi urged all Iraqi families to write "Down with America" front of their homes. Monday's protest came only a day after Saddam met with his Cabinet and said he hoped an escalation of the conflict could be averted.

In a statement, Saddam said: "Iraq does not seek conflict with the United States and if there is a solution to this crisis ... we would be happy."

In Paris, Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said that the crisis could end if the teams included fewer Americans and better represented the makeup of the U.N. Security Council. The proposal was rejected by the United States when it was first offered a week ago. Washington reiterated its position on Sunday, saying Iraq was in no position to dictate the composition of the team.

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Richard Butler has been warning in interviews that Iraq could resume building biological weapons within a week.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Saddam "is not a man that is going to listen to any language of reason or sweetness unless the person using it is also carrying a big stick."

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright cut short a visit to Qatar and left for neighboring Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to discuss the crisis. After talking with Albright, there seemed to be a change of attitude on the part of the Kuwaitis.

Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah said the Iraqi regime will be responsible for any military strike against Kuwait and should remember what happened in the 1991 Gulf War. He dismissed any possiblity of dialogue between Kuwait and Iraq under the current regime of President Saddam Hussein, and called on the Iraqi high command to implement Security Council resolutions, "return to reason and remember what happened to its people during the 1991 Desert Storm. It is not in Kuwait's hands to prevent any likely military strike against Iraq. The Americans do not need Kuwaiti military bases to take off and hit Iraq. Their aircraft carriers are heavily present in the Gulf Sea."

Al-Sabah said, "The confrontation is not between Iraq and Kuwait or the United States. It is between Iraq and the U.N. Security Council."

ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Tuesday, November 18, 1997

TUESDAY'S DEVELOPMENTS

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - A U.S. U-2 surveillance plane flew over Iraq Tuesday without incident. The mission came as the President was scheduled to meet with national security advisors at the White House later in the day. The flight was the first since Iraq kicked U.S. arms inspectors out of the country last week.

The United States said on Monday that is was considering sending more fighter planes to the Gulf region as well as increasing the amount of oil Iraq can sell to buy food and other humanitarian goods.

The fighter aircraft being considered being sent to the Gulf would include F-117A stealth fighters and perhaps B-1 or B-2 bombers to reinforce two aircraft carriers and more than 200 warplanes already in the region. No official decision has been made yet, but nations in the area have agreed to accept the additional forces.

U.S. Secretary of State Albright, who is now in Pakistan, had earlier brought up the idea of increasing the amount of oil Iraq could sell under a so-called U.N. oil-for-food deal. But Iraq's U.N. ambassador Nizar Hamdoon rejected the proposal as a "non-starter." Hamdoon said, "We want guarantees from the Security Council as an institution and that the sanctions will be lifted soon."

U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen rejected the Iraqis demand. He said, "We are not seeking any deal in order to insist that he (President Saddam Hussein) comply with his obligations."

Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz, in Paris over the weekend, again said that all five permanent members of the council, which includes France, Russia and China, should have equitable representation in UNSCOM along with the United States and Britain, who together account for 25 percent of the experts. It is essentially a ludicrous demand because, according to U.N. diplomats, China has refused to send staff to UNSCOM in the six years of its existence.

Also on Tuesday, Iraq dismissed as baseless allegations that its weapons arsenal had not been emptied yet by U.N. arms inspectors, and said it was time for the world body to lift crippling sanctions.

Amir al-Saadi, an advisor to Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein, said, "The first to know that Iraq does not have any prohibited weapons is the (U.N.) Special Commission (UNSCOM)." He said Iraq had "fully complied with U.N. resolutions" and if it had been given the chance to prove that, sanctions would have been lifted long ago.

He rejected news reports that Iraq was still maintaining deadly VX chemical agents. Saddi said, "We have been accused of keeping VX agents and storing them in sensitive sites...This is absolutely incorrect...politically motivated and unscientific allegations. The biological program is entirely obliterated since 1991...The destruction was carried out by the Iraqi side under the supervision of UNSCOM's personnel."

He also said Baghdad was not hiding any missiles prohibited under terms of the 1991 Gulf War ceasefire. "We have no missiles...We have no launchers to launch them," he said.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Corporate Security/Crisis Management/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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