Situation Report; Selected Events

Situation Report; Selected Events - Uganda/Zaire/Burundi - 11/14/96
By C. L. Staten, ERRI Senior Analyst

Sept. 3-10, 1996 -- While it may be only a coincidence, early September finds Iranian President Akbar Hashemio Rafsanjani on a tour of several African nations, including those involved in the current conflict. Rafsanjani is quoted as accusing America and European nations of "raping the the continent of Africa like colonialists." He offers a "hand of friendship and support," to all African nations, as he works to ensure a continued flow of Iranian oil to the area.

Sept. 10, 1996 -- The Zairean Army has moved quickly to quash fears of a coup while President Mobutu Sese Seko is in Switzerland for prostate surgery. Mobutu seized power in 1965, allegedly with the assistance of Western powers. A series of army-led revolts, rioting, and looting have taken place since 1991...some say leading to the current situation there. Analysts say that without Mobutu's government leadership that the country could quickly disintegrate into a situation similar to Somali or Libera, with "warlords and militias" fighting for overall control.

Sept. 24, 1996 -- U.N. agencies starting evacuating non-essential staff from the Eastern Zairean town of Bakavu, following "heavy exchanges" of gunfire between Rwandan army and Zairean forces. Rwanda's defense minister, Emmanuel Ndahiro, charged that Zairean forces had opened fire first with anti-aircraft guns and 75mm rifles. In Kinshasa, Zairean Foreign Minister Kititwa Tumansi alleged that the exchange was prompted by artillery fire from Rwandan forces that landed in Bukavu.

Sept. 29, 1996 -- Over 2,000 Burundi secondary education students start military training under the supervision of Col. Nzihabandi Cyrille. Compulsory military training was instituted after Major Pierre Boyoya came into power by force. In June, rioting and demonstrations displaced the government of President Ntibantuganya, accusing it of complicity with Hutu rebels opposed to the regular army. Mobilization of youths such as these is commonly viewed as a precusor to major military activities.

Oct. 2, 1996 -- The World Health organization (WHO) holds a conference in Cameroon to prepare for "eventual outbreaks" of epidemics in Central African Sub-region. According to a report issued at that meeting, at least 3,000 people have died in June and July from "various epidemic diseases" in the Central African area.

Oct. 15, 1996 -- The Commander of the "Uganda People's Defense forces", Maj. General Salim Saleh, charged that rebels of "Lord's Resisance Army (LRA), killed four people and committed an arson attack on United Nations and Lutheran World Federation trucks, destroying 14 of them. The attacks took place in Northwest Uganda. A spokesperson of the High Commissioner for refugees in Kampala confirmed the attack and said that the U.N. compound in Pakele had been "overun."

Oct. 17, 1996 -- An estimated 200 LRA rebels ambushed a convoy in Northwest Uganda, reportedly killing 20 people and burning several vehicles. The rebels allegedly also overran the Pakwach police station and abducted four police officers, including the station's commander. Other reports are received that the rebels had raided a girls school in the Apac district, earlier in October, and kidnapped as many as 150 girls...20 of whom are still being held hostage by the rebels.

Oct. 18, 1996 -- 25,000, mainly Burundi, refugees are reported fleeing their camp near the Eastern Zairean town of Uvira after fighting between the Zairean military and ethnic Tutsi rebels (Banyamulenge) left three dead and several wounded. A U.N. refugee coordinator said that the camp at Kagunga was "virtually empty" as refugees fled the fighting. This attack followed another attack, a few day earlier, on the camp at Runingo, where Hutu refugees from Burundi fled from an attack by "unknown armed men." According to UNHCR representatives, there are thirteen camps in the area of Uvira, with a total population of 220,000.

Oct. 31, 1996 -- Fighting between Zairean troops and Tutsi rebels rages near the Eastern city of Goma. Mortar and heavy weapons fire is reportedly occurring in an area two kilometers north of the Goma city limits. An area of Eastern Zaire, close to both Rwanda and Burundi is reportedly now outside of the control of the Zairean military, following a "lightning campaign" by Tutsi guerillas. "Bloated bodies" are continually found floating up on the shores of Lake Tanganyika, raising fears of both a continued massacre and the spread of a number of infectious diseases..including cholera. The refugee camp at Mugunga is declared the largest encampment of displaced persons in the world, with an estimated 400,000 people there.

Nov. 5, 1996 -- Several African leaders are calling for a deployment of a "neutral force" to Eastern Zaire to protect more than 1 million refugees. In Goma, Red Cross workers report that they buried more than 400 bodies of people thought to have been killed in factional fighting. In Kinshasa, roadblocks are set up and cars hijacked as anti-Rawandan demonstrations take place. In France, Zairean President Mobutu Sese Seko is still recovering from cancer surgery and reportedly not able to be directly involved in events in his country. U.N. diplomats meet with Rwandan strongman Paul Kagame, in an effort to defuse rising border tensions; Rwandan Foreign Minister says Rwanda would oppose any "international military intervention" into Eastern Zaire.

Nov. 8, 1996 -- Zairean aid workers report that an "apocalypse" is underway as Rwandan refugees die by the thousands. Dr. Fernando Rodriquez of Doctors of the World (medecins du monde) says that Eastern Zaire is in "virtual mayhem," with armed bands looting warehouses in Katale and Kahindo and pillaging "anything of value." Rodriquez also charged that Zairean troops, hired to guard aid workers, had stolen their vehicles and fled, leaving them to the mobs. A spokesperson for the Action for Churches Together (ACT) reported that there was a large contingent of refugees hiding in the jungle between the Zairean towns of Hombo and Walikale.

Nov. 13, 1996 -- Under heavy diplomatic pressure from France, the United States announced that it was considering sending U.S. troops to assist in "humanitarian assistance" in Zaire. An advance team of 40 U.S. military advisors is reportedly sent to Uganda to assess the situation on the ground, in the region. Repeated mortar and artillery shelling reportedly interrupts the distribution of food and water in the Goma area. Although French defense officials deny the report, a relief plane was reportedly fired upon, rebels saying they suspected it contained French troops. Rwanda and some rebel groups accuse France of a secret agenda to restore Zairean authority and of helping the Hutus. Statements to the press indicate that rebel troops have threatened to attack French troops if they arrive in the Goma area.

Unseen Threats

This region of Central Africa is "the home" of any number of infectious diseases. Reports have been received from that region, within the past two years, of outbreaks of dysentery, meningitis, cholera, typhoid, pneumonia and even the dreaded Ebola virus. Both aid workers and military personnel must be prepared to effectively manage circumstances involving unsanitary conditions and an unrestrained spread of any number of viruses. Medical personnel will need large amounts of antibiotics, IV fluids, gloves, gowns, and isolation equipment.

Weapons in the Region

Both U.N. and independent investigators report that, in the past two years, that Zaire has been a hub of transshipment for weapons of all kinds. Weapons have been sold on both the black market and through legal arms deals to any number of the 200 ethnic tribes/groups in the region. Reportedly, vast numbers of Ak-47 assault rifles have flooded the area, allegedly sold there by members of the former Soviet bloc. The extremely reliable weapons can allegedly be obtained in Zaire for as little as $150.00 per rifle.

South Africa has also reportedly been involved in both legal and illegal arms sales to Rwanda, including a recent sale of $18 Million dollars worth of R-4 assault rifles, mortars, machine guns, and land mines. The government in Pretoria, under international pressure, is said to have halted arms sales recently...but, not before many weapons may have moved between the two countries.

Zairean officials accuse the Tutsi-led governments in Rwanda and Burundi of arming insurgents. Suspicion also falls on Uganda, who may have armed Tutsi guerillas involved in taking power in Rwanda in 1994. A variety of both Hutu and Tutsi rebels are believed involved in the illegal arms trade, with criss-crossing arms sales throughout the border areas.

Conclusions

As the fighting in Zaire grows fiercer by the day, there is every prospect of the whole of Central Africa degenerating into violent and bloody war. Unless the United Nations can achieve the near impossible and halt the civil fighting in the southern provinces in Zaire, it seems inevitable that neighboring Rwanda and Burundi will be drawn into outright war which would force this vast region of Africa into another terrible cauldron of genocide.

While President Mobuto Sese Seko of Zaire recovers in France from treatment for cancer, his government is flooding Kivu with fresh troops in an attempt to contain an advancing army of rebel Tutsi fighters. The 300,000 Tutsis, known as the Banyamulenge, have lived around Kivu for over 200 years. Several weeks ago, the Zairean government renounced their citizenship and ordered them back to Rwanda, the land of their forefathers, or to face concentration camps. The Banyamulenge rose up in revolt. In their path, thousands of Hutus, their sworn enemies, have crossed the border from Rwanda, to escape the savagery of Tutsi forces, then fled north to Bukavu. The Zairean government ordered the army to crush the revolt while the UN airlifted its aid workers out of Bukavu.

Zaire has already accused the Tutsi-led governments of neighboring Rwanda and Burundi of aiding the rebels, but the UN has pleaded with all governments to step back from aggression. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has called for an emergency mission followed by an international conference. The key question for any conference is a stark one: is the UN prepared to act, to commit forces to police this powder keg?

It may appear brutal, but the simple fact is that this is not the Persian Gulf... where oil was at stake. This is not Bosnia... where the security of the West and the stability of Eastern Europe could have been threatened. Only France and Belgium have past colonial links with this part of Africa and they have both, as yet, remained out of the conflict, except for their calls for others to intervene.

It is alleged that no other Western power has any real economic or political stake in the heart of Africa, and a number of policy experts believe that it has nothing to offer but trouble for those becoming involved there. The only responsibility there for the West...the only important question...is a moral one. As terrible as it may sound, morality has its price, and the world powers have to decide if they are prepared to pay that price, and intervene in a violent, complex, and potentially unresolvable political and ethnic situation.

(Editor's Note; Special thanks are in order for A. Mogliner for assistance with this report)

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