EmergencyNet News Special Report

12/04/98 - 08:00CST

Chicago Institute Releases Preliminary Results
of Emergency Service Y2K Survey
By Paul Anderson, Analyst

Chicago, IL (EmergencyNet News) -- In what is thought to be the first survey of it's kind, the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) today announced the preliminary results of it's recent Year2000 or Y2K emergency/government service survey. The survey's stated purpose was to "gauge the levels of awareness, knowledge, planning and preparedness for
the "Year 2000," "Y2K" or "Millennium Bug." The survey was conducted in a variety of ways, including a posting on the world-wide-web, through internet newsgroups, by e-mail, and by telephone interviews with emergency service and government leaders. The survey was announced on  Nov. 12, 1998 and concluded Dec. 2, 1998.

According to Clark Staten, Executive Director of the Chicago-based emergency service and national security think-tank, 212 people responded to the survey. Staten said that due to the size of the survey that it is by no means a definitive study of government agency preparedness, but that it does provide an interesting and insightful glimpse into the attitudes, opinions, and preparations of members of Fire, Police, EMS, Disaster, and Military agencies in the United States and Canada.

RAW RESPONSES TO THE SURVEY:

1> I have heard of the so-called "Y2K" problem and understand its basic implications for my agency:

Yes - 100%

No - 0%

2> I believe that the "Millennium Bug" will affect my agency:

Yes - 74.2%

No - 11.4%

I don't know - 14.2%

3> My agency and/or co-workers believe that the Y2K problem is:

A hoax, perpetrated by software salesmen and consultants - 2.6%

Vastly Overblown and will probably have little affect - 13.1%

A problem, but one that can be easily fixed - 7.8%

A serious problem, but one can be solved in time - 63.1%

A potential catastrophe in the making - 5.2%

Not solvable in the time that is left - 2.6%

4> To the best of my knowledge, my agency has developed an effective INTERNAL plan for fixing our own "Y2K problems?

Yes - 78.7%

No - 18.1%

I don't know - 3.0%

5> To the best of my knowledge, my agency has developed effective contingency plans for the EXTERNAL effects of possible "Y2K" problems that may affect the infrastructure in my community?

Yes - 23.5%

No - 61.7%

I don't know - 14.7%

6> My position in the Hierarchy/Chain of Command is: (choose the single best answer)

First responder (officer, firefighter, paramedic, etc.) - 8.5%

First-line supervisor (Lieutenant, Sergeant, Field supervisor) - 11.7%

More senior supervisor (Captain, District Commander, etc.) - 11.7%

Chief Officer, Executive Level Supervisor - 14.7%

Chief of Department - 5.8%

Other, please describe: ________________________________ - 47.6%

(Some typical titles described by the respondents as "other" include:
Principal Engineer, Intelligence analyst, Technical Coordinator, Emergency
Room Manager, Consultant, Y2K Project Manager, Safety Officer, MIS Manager,
Communications Supervisor, Emergency Manager, Regional EMS Director, etc.)

7> My department/agency has developed a specific plan to deal with any potential problems that might develop on the the night of December 31, 1999:

Yes - 29.7%

No - 43.2%

I don't know - 27%

8> I/we believe that our department is NOW effectively prepared to deal with any eventuality relating to the "Y2K" or "Millennium Bug"?

Yes - 43.7%

No - 46.8%

I don't know - 9.3%

9> At this time, I/we believe that our department/agency is ______% prepared to deal with any potential problems associated with the "Y2K" issue: (choose the single best answer)

100% - 2.8%

90% - 8.5%

80% - 20.0%

70% - 25.7%

60% - 8.5%

50% - 11.4%

Less than 50% - 17.1%

Not at all, not necessary - 2.8%

10> To the best of my knowledge, our agency/department uses _____________for our computing needs: (choose the best answer)

Main-frame computers with networked work-stations - 27.9%

PC-based "peer-to-peer" networked work stations - 28%

Non-networked PC(s) - 4.6%

"Apple-based" network - 2.3%

Windows/95-98-NT network - 34.8%

Other, please describe: __________________________ - 6.9%

(Some typical network described by the respondents as "other" include: Silicon Graphics Network, Banyan Vines, Minicomputer & network, etc.)

11> Please place an "X" next to all other agencies with whom your agency/department is working in regard to overall preparedness for any potential "Y2K" problem that might present itself: (Please check all that pertain to your plans)

Power Company/Electrical Utility - 9.5%

Gas Company - 6.9%

Telecommunications Company - 9.5%

Water Department/Sanitation District - 7.4%

Police Department - 5.8%

Fire Department - 4.7%

EMS Agency - 7.1%

Hospital(s) - 6.3%

Health/human service agency - 3.1%

Radio, TV, Cable media outlets/stations - 4.2%

City/County emergency planning agency - 9.5%

State emergency planning agency - 6.3%

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) - 5.3%

Nuclear facility - 2.1%

Commercial concerns/businesses - 2.6%

Other, please describe: ______________________

(Some typical agencies described by the respondents as "other" include: Computer Vendors, Corp of Engineers, Dept. of Energy, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Forest Service, EEI, EPRI, DoD, etc.)

12> I/my department would like to share studies, information, threat assessments, contingency plans with other agencies faced with similar problems?

Yes - 54.5%

No - 21.2%

I don't know - 24.2%

I would like to receive a copy of the results of this survey:

Yes - 80.6%

No - 19.4

I don't know - 0%

ANALYSIS

Staten said of the survey, "Although we are still studying some of the implications of this effort...I think we can draw some conclusions and make some observations about the data presented so far."

* Virtually every respondent said that they understand the implications of the Year2000 (Y2K) problem. This is interesting, due to the fact that experts in both government and in the computer industry are divided  about the potential implications of the problem. But, emergency service personnel are, by nature, very decisive and can be opinionated...which may account for their confidence in perception.

* A large majority of respondents to the survey (74.2%0 agree that the Y2K bug will affect their agency. 25.6% either don't believe it will or don't know if it will.

* A majority of respondents to the survey (63.1%) believe that the Y2K situation is "A serious problem, but one that can be solved in time." Very few believe that Y2K is "a hoax," but a significant number (13.1%) did answer that the Year2000 problem is "Vastly Overblown and will probably have little affect." On the other end of the spectrum, 7.8% of the respondents said that they believe that Y2K is "potential catastrophe in the making" or "not solvable in the time that is left."

* Of significance to emergency administrators and planners is the fact that a vast majority of respondents (78.7%) said that their agency was INTERNALLY prepared for Y2K, while only 23.5% said that their agency had developed effective contingency plans for the EXTERNAL effects of possible "Y2K" problems. This may indicate a potential lack of communications and coordination with other parts of the critical infrastructure that underlies all of our systems. A loss of electricity, telecommunications, and other essential resources could have a negative cascading effect on communities.

* When asked if the respondents knew of specific plans for their agency for the night of December 31, 1999, The results were negative, with 29.7% saying they had developed plans, and 70.2% indicating they had either had not developed any plans or didn't know of any. This may be indicative of indecision about the seriousness of Y2K issues, within emergency agencies.

* In complimentary and corresponding questions asked about current preparatory measures, the respondents said that 43.7% were NOW prepared for the Y2K problem. This belief was further reinforced by the fact that an aggregate of 57% of respondents said that their agency was 70% or greater "prepared to deal with any potential problems associated with the "Y2K" issue."

* Of interest to systems engineers and computer marketers is the fact that 34.8% of the respondents said that they had "Win95/98" network systems. This was closely followed by "Main-frame computers with networked work-stations" -- 27.9% and "PC-based "peer-to-peer" networked work stations" -- 28%.

* It is also interesting to note the fact that proprietary or "appearances" concerns may have played a part in the survey. Only a
little more than half of the respondents (54.5%) said that their department "would like to share studies, information, threat
assessments, contingency plans with other agencies faced with similar problems." ERRI would have thought that a much larger percentage of the respondents would want to share information or ideas concerning the emerging Y2K issue.

CONCLUSIONS AND OBSERVATIONS

Staten, a retired emergency service chief and senior researcher for the Y2K project, said about the survey, " I believe this issue deserves a great deal more study and emphasis within the emergency community...I am not assured, at this point, that Fire, Police, EMS, and Disaster Chiefs are paying enough attention to the Y2K problem." "I am concerned that there may be a certain amount of apathy or denial about the whole thing," Staten continued. "I think that the results of this study should suggest
that this issue requires additional thought and serious consideration," Staten said.

"I am hopeful that additional attention and future surveys by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the President Clinton's Year2000 initiatives and other emergency management groups will give this issue more clarity," he added. "One thing is certain, there is only a finite amount of time left in which we must ascertain if Y2K is to be a 'disaster in the making'...and if so, it is then incumbent upon all emergency agencies to develop the necessary contingency plans to protect
and adequately serve their communities," Staten concluded.

(C)Copyright, Emergency Response & Research Institute and EmergencyNet News, 1998. All rights reserved. May not be reproduced or redistributed without permission.

(Statistics Note: The study is statistically accurate to +/- 4%. Certain portions of the responses may add up to more or less than 100% due to "rounding" and the fact that some respondents may have not answered some questions or submitted more than one answer to others.)

Other related stories on these results: Sounding the Sirens on Y2K (Emergency Service Survey), on Wired News

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