Special Report - 09/14/96 - 14:00CDT
Statistical "Blip", Coincidence, or Information Warfare??
By: C. Staten, Senior Analyst
(ENN) Computer statistics, gathered by the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI), would indicate that the number of reported terrorist acts (particularly those allegedly perpetrated by Moslem extremists) has decreased significantly in the days since the beginning of the current Iraq/USA crisis. It is currently unknown if this is merely a "statistical blip" relating to concentrated media attention on the Gulf crisis, or if it is part of a larger (state-supported) plan to discontinue terrorist operations that might distract the world's attention from events in Iraq.
It should be noted that the statistical information studied by the ERRI computer terrorism tracking program is provided by means of "open sources" and that it reflects (at least to a certain extent) on selected media coverage of current events. Nonetheless, the computer program reports that there is a significant drop in the number of reported incidents. Meanwhile, the level of world terrorist "rhetoric" (also studied and considered by the ERRI computer program) continues at a high level, much of it critical of, and reacting to US actions in the Iraq situation.
The implications of this trend are not completely understood at this time, and are still being studied by ERRI, but it would appear clear to our analysts that there is a concerted "information warfare" effort underway to undermine the prestige and reputation of the United States in the Mid-East. By doing so, it is hoped, by adversaries of the United States, that a "wedge" can be driven between the members of the 1991 Desert Storm coalition and that strained relations and less multilateral cooperation will result. Ultimately, we believe that these actions relate to those that are busily at work, trying to cause "disengagement" and "withdrawal" of all American forces in the Gulf area.
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