Excerpted from ENN Daily Intelligence Report -Vo.3, No. 003, 01/03/97

ERRI Threat Computers Light Up With Terrorism Warnings
By: C. L. Staten, ERRI Senior Analyst

CHICAGO (ENN) - Alarm bells are ringing this morning throughout the Emergency Response & Research Institute's (ERRI) computer operation center. Incident reports continue to pour in from Washington, DC, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, Hebron, Israel, Damascus, Syria, and other pressure points that suggest that America should be at a heightened state of alert for possible terrorist action.

ERRI's threat computer records the incidence of on-going terrorist events, reported threats, previous situational analysis, and the current level of anti-U.S. rhetoric and then, using a series of "expert algorthyms", issues a statistics-based threat level. Output is then examined by ERRI human analysts and given additional consideration in regard to overall threat planning and warning efforts.

The ERRI threat computer currently indicates an 88% likelihood of an attack on U.S. targets, somewhere in the world, within the next 30 days. This threat level is almost as high as that during the Persian Gulf war, when the computer's estimate continually topped 90%. ERRI computer technicians and programmers are currently attempting to refine the computer's "expert systems" to further indicate more specific time frames, specific regions where the possibility of terrorist attack is greatest, and to identify potential antagonists prior to the act.

Preliminary, and as yet unconfirmed, estimates would seem to indicate a general heightened threat level concerning U.S. commercial, diplomatic, and military personnel in Israel, Saudi Arabia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, the Philippines, Bosnia and some South American Countries. The U.S. State Department has issued a travel warning for Americans traveling to the Mid-East, urging caution in public places and on public transportation.

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