Syria on Brink of War with Israel??

(Editor's Note: Before you begin reading the two highly-detailed and richly-researched position papers that are presented here, about the possible intentions of Syria toward Israel, allow me to provide some information to inform some of our readers to this publication who may not be entirely well-informed in the matters of intelligence and analysis. In the intelligence field, information is collected, gathered, assessed and analyzed. After that, position papers are then written and then are distributed to other analysts and to the end-user consumer. Some of the end-user consumers in the United States would, in cases like this, be the President, the Vice-President, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, Senior Military and Intelligence Officers and so on. What you will be reading, here, are position papers that are very similar to what MAY be floating around, right now, in higher circles. Most, if not all, of the information that follows comes from open sources and is the opinion of the two authors who have spent years studying these topics.)

Appeared in and copyright by the ENN Daily Report; Vol. 2, No. 244

"COULD SYRIA BE ON THE BRINK OF WAR WITH ISRAEL?"
AN ASSESSMENT
By: RONALD W. LEWIS -- THE INTELLIGYST GROUP

Syria's President Assad has made no secret of his ambitions to become the leader of the Arabs throughout the Middle East. He is an archenemy of Iraq's Saddam Hussein on his eastern border and is in a bitter contest with the Turks on his northern border.

At first glance, Syria would seem to be in poor shape, with Turkey having control over the water that flows into Syria and Iraq containing him on the east, and Israel on the southwestern region encompassing the Golan Heights.

It would also seem likely for Assad to be in direct conflict with the Iranians who are not Arab and have their own ambitions for control of the Middle East. However, Iran and Syria are closely linked allies whom have been supporting one another in a number of important ways.

Syria's army is the de facto governing force in neighboring Lebanon. This came about due to the collapse and civil war into which Lebanon descended in 1975. PLO factions under the rule of Yassir Arafat had taken over part of Lebanon and launched attacks on northern Israel. When, in 1982, Israel launched its invasion of Lebanon during the "Peace for Galilee" campaign, the United States, France and Italy all rushed to move in to Beirut to try keep the Israelis from progressing further and to quell further fighting that could expand the incursion into an open conflict with Syria. Israel eventually backed down and retreated to the southernmost border region of Lebanon and set up a Christian militia known as the Southern Lebanese Army (SLA). The intent was to have the SLA occupy this small section of southern Lebanon and keep radical Palestinians and, later, Hizbollah forces, from being able to launch quick strikes into northern Israel, most often with rockets.

Syria stepped in and filled a huge vacuum of power that was subsequently created when western peacekeepers hastily departed after 241 US Marines were killed in a truck bombing of their barracks at the Beirut airport. Syria now controls the Bekaa Valley to the east and is a major influence in Lebanese affairs.

The Hizbollah faction in Lebanon is armed, supported, trained and sponsored by Iran. However none of these weapons could be delivered by air or by land without Syria's complicity and even cooperation. In return for their assistance, the Syrian's can call upon the Hizbollah fighters to tie down a significant portion of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on their northern border with Lebanon. Because of these conditions, Iran and Syria have become close allies, even to the extent that SCUD missiles, built in North Korea and intended for shipment to Syria, are off-loaded from a ship in Iranian ports and then flown to Syria.

Unlike Iran and Libya, Syria has, until fairly recently, kept a low profile on the terrorism front. However, in the past year, they have given Hizbollah factions in southern Lebanon a green light to launch rocket attacks on northern Israel. The rocket attacks became so severe that the Israelis finally became fed up with them and launched a massive air and artillery assault on Hizbollah bases in southern Lebanon. Iran promptly decided to refill the stocks of 122mm rockets and other weapons expended by their Hizbollah agents and had Syria trans-ship these weapons to Lebanon. A recent report in JANE's ON DEFENSE indicates that the 122mm rockets have not only been replenished in large numbers, but 240mm rockets with a range of 25 miles have now been spotted.

The logistical support has not all gone just from Iran to Lebanon alone. There is not strong evidence to indicate that Hizbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon have been traced from Lebanon to Damascus, Syria; to Amman, Jordan; then into Saudi Arabia where their tanker truck was filled with explosives and detonated at the Khobar Towers barracks complex in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 19 Americans.

As a result of this cooperation, Syria has become a key element in the success of Middle East terrorism in Saudi Arabia and may be involved in destabilizing its other neighbors. Assad wants to ascend to the peak of the Arab and Muslim world. His ruthlessness is reputed to be on par with Iraq's Saddam Hussein and he has helped and encourage dissident Iraqi elements to help keep Saddam off balance.

Syria has also been instrumental in causing unrest in Jordan by allowing infiltrators and terrorists to enter Jordan and then into Israel. Assad has been waiting patiently, building his military up for a major confrontation with Israel. In 1991, Syria sent an armored division to Saudi Arabia to assist in the war against Iraq. The venture was low-risk but paid off in huge dividends when the Saudis and others contributed over a billion dollars to Syria for their aid in liberating Kuwait. That money was plowed back into arms sales that make Syria one of the largest military forces in the region, aside from Israel and Iran.

Syria's avowed enemy is Israel. Assad wants the Golan Heights lost in 1967 and he wishes to push the Israelis back into the sea. He has a very hard-line and uncompromising attitude toward Israel and figures that the Jewish state is nothing more than a transitory occupier, as were the Christian Crusaders of the Middle Ages.

Will Syria now do something to carry out Assad's long-term dream of evicting the Israelis? It is very possible that Assad may feel the time is now for such an assault. Iraq is severely weakened, so his back will not be exposed to a great danger, Jordan is too destabilized to put up much of a credible resistance to anything Assad might wish to do, and Iran is a strong ally. To the north and west, Hizbollah in the Bekaa valley are very supportive of Syria. As a result, Syria's Assad now has the men, the materiel and a window of opportunity for striking against Israel.

What is truly frightening is that Iran has an interest in closing the Straits of Hormuz or harassing shipping in the Persian Gulf if Syria doesn't get its way. To make matters worse, reports within the past few days indicate that the United Arab Emirates are being threatened by Iran in a dispute over islands out in the Gulf, the perfect spot from which to set up a crossfire against major naval surface combatants like aircraft carriers.

Iran has also practiced numerous live-fire exercises including amphibious landing assaults. The only beaches in the Persian Gulf are on Iran's shores and those of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab nations, emirates and principalities directly across the Gulf from Iran. These activities would naturally tie down a significant number of American ships and aircraft. Just getting into and out of the Gulf this time would be running a gauntlet of fire if Iran possessed control.

In Bahrain, the US 5th Fleet Headquarters is in an uneasy situation, located on an island wracked by bombings, arson attacks and other incidents. Hizbollah Bahrain is behind this unrest while elements of Hizbollah are showing up in Saudi Arabia and in Kuwait. As the region becomes more destabilized, Syria has a better chance of picking up the pieces.

In recent days, heavy military activity has been witnessed inside Syria, indicating possible preparations for war. But how would Syria launch an attack on Israel and expect to get away with it? In order to be successful, the initial attacks would have to be at least as shocking and demoralizing as the 1973 Yom Kippur War was. One way to strike panic into the hearts of Israeli citizens and to possibly destroy the morale of the troops would be the employment of chemical weapons.

Over a month ago, Syria, a country not exactly known to be self-sufficient in grain, offered 100,000 tons of grain to North Korea. North Korea does not have money to repay Syria, but it does have weapons, SCUD missiles and chemical warfare agents. Syria is believed to have a small stockpile of chemical weapons but does not have a fabrication facility. It would not be surprising to see that the ship that transported grain to North Korea would be bringing chemicals back to Syria on the return trip. Also in the past few weeks, Syria has made noises about wanting to build a chemical munitions production plant. Syria has repeatedly accused the Israelis of "looking for war" and trying to start one.

Although it is true that Syria's ground and air forces would not be an even match for Israeli forces, they do have sizable amounts of artillery and rocket launchers that could open with heavy salvos on the very first day of the war. Heavy artillery barrages are disconcerting in themselves but would be absolutely terrifying if at least some of those warheads carried chemical agents. In 1991, Israeli citizens were issued gas masks in the event that Saddam Hussein's SCUD missiles carried chemical warheads. The protection consisted of a mask with no hood, no gloves, no boots, no outer protective garments. Those who get a pinhead-sized droplet of nerve agent like sarin on their skin will die in convulsions within minutes, despite the masks they wear for protection. That tiny droplet of nerve agent will absorb through the skin and, within minutes, the victim is dead. Imagine the hysteria when people with gas masks, well behind enemy lines, begin to succumb in large numbers.

Syria might be betting that Israel would not respond with nuclear weapons for fear of dragging in Saudi Arabia and the GCC states, or due to pressure from the United States. But we simply don't know how far Assad is willing to push his luck. He has tried to get recognition among his peers and he has tried to become a pan-Arabic leader. Most of his rivals or neighbors are ill or politically unstable. He may think that this kind of opportunity can't be passed up and be tempted into making an attack to settle the issue.

If Iran is tied to recent terrorist attacks and Syria is connected, Syria may have only a short time in which to seize control before US aircraft and ships begin retaliating. At present, Syria is on good terms with North Korea, Cuba, Libya, Sudan, and a variety of other troublesome nations that are distinctly unfriendly to the US and Israel. Sudan and Libya are threatening Egypt, a country which has a peace treaty with Israel and good relations with the US. Too many unfriendly countries and terrorist organizations are demonstrating unprecedented cooperation. This may encourage Syria to make a move on Israel, whose forces are spread thin and have to deal with Palestinian strikes, a possible resurgence of the Intifadah and, now, attacks from the north and east.

US airpower in the region used to be formidable but due to downsizing of the military, we do not have several carriers in the region at any one time. In recent months, only a single carrier has operated in the Persian and Arabian Gulfs at a time. In some cases, they have departed before their replacements could arrive on station, as happened when two carriers were rushed to assist Taiwan against possible Chinese invasion.

The number of US military air patrols in the Gulf have been scaled back in number was well, all of which would seem to encourage Assad in believing that he could strike and seize Israel.

The danger level is extremely high and Syria's intentions should not be misread. Otherwise, we may be facing another major war with far-reaching implications.

( Editor's Note: Does the Kurdish fighting in northern Iraq have anything to do with the scenario of keeping Iraq's forces busy, so that Syria's back is covered? Iran has been instigating the battle between the two Kurdish groups.)

Syrian Analysis
By: Alijandra Mogilner, The Intelligyst Group

While I do not think that Syria could achieve a strategic surprise in attacking Israel, I believe that they may be readying for an attack anyway. If they do, their target date may either be the week following 96.09.22-23 (96.09.21 in the US) or the week following 96.10.11 (96.10.10 in the US). Situations both inside and outside of Israel may lead Assad to believe that they could achieve at least limited success even without the surprise factor and their current level of military activity suggests that they may wish to attack soon, perhaps on one of these dates as a symbolic gesture to commemorate, or as revenge for, the Yom Kippur war of 1973.

Instability in nations that the United States uses as its primary bases might make our support of Israel more difficult than we would like. We are busy moving equipment and personnel in Saudi Arabia, there is a high level of PKK activity within Turkey and BFM activity within Bahrain, all of which may delay or restrict our ability to use bases within these nations. At the same time, Egypt is in a rear war situation with the Sudan, with Quadaffi backing the Sudan. This leaves Israel's only (almost) ally busy and the western flank unprotected. Moreover, reports have reached us that Sudan probably has chemical weapons from Libya and biological weapons of Chinese origin which could be used against Egypt and, as an extension, against Israel. Additionally, any tactical involvement between Egypt and the Sudan would make the use of their air bases by the US problematic. Any move by Iraq or Iran could make our troops now in Kuwait unusable and if the situation heats up in Jordan once again it may impact our presence there as well. On other fronts, if North Korea timed an invasion of the South to coincide with a Syrian attack on Israel, and/or China attacked Taiwan, it would further weaken our abilities to respond.

Situations inside Israel may also lead Assad to believe the time for a strike is at hand. The Palestinian Authority has threatened Israel by saying that they could become an internal enemy -- this time armed to an extent unknown in the past. A new anti-Israeli/anti-PA "jihad" group has announced itself this past fortnight by threatening Arafat's life and declaring "war" on the existence of "the Zionist government".

Beyond this obvious threat, the IDF has expressed concerns about slackers within its ranks and a growing number of what we would call draft dodgers; morale and participation is at the lowest level since the founding of the country.

New orders, such as the one for IDF members not to hitchhike, indicate concerns that there is a hidden third force working against the country from within. Unlike most European countries and the US, hitchhiking by military personnel is expected in Israel. It is a national policy that citizens pick up people in uniform. These new orders either reflect a concern that there are terrorists in IDF uniform may be used to attack citizens, or that those who seem to be Israelis may be used to attack military personnel. Either scenario suggests a large enough non-Palestinian, anti-Israeli presence in the country to pose a security threat.

With a weakened ability for self defense, a diminished ability for the US to support Israel, the presence of chemical (and perhaps biological) weapons to both the east and the west, and new missile emplacements that have the ability to reach the center of the nation, Assad may rightly feel that a strike could succeed at least to a limited extent and, if they have been promised help from their coalition partners Iraq, Iran, Libya, and Pakistan he could believe that this is the time to push Israel into the sea. Even recent news stories and editorial positions that minimize the importance of the Palestinians speak to a policy of total destruction without consideration for protecting Arabs within the area.

The timing is obvious. There is little hope that such a strike would be unexpected within Israel. Reports of the build up of medical supplies and other support materials have already created concern within the Israeli intelligence community. As a result, one may expect that the attack on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur war would help justify it to non-involved Arab states such as the UAE and mitigate their response to the situation. The question is, which anniversary date? The Yom Kippur War took place on 73.10.11 -- on the western calendar. However, the Arab/Israeli calendar is a lunar one and Yom Kippur this year begins at sundown on the 21st. Since there have been recent troop movements within Syria and it is an ethnically-based conflict, I would expect that the September date would be more likely than the October one.

Can Assad really hope to win such a war? If it were possible, it would be possible now. I think there is a good possibility that we may see such an attack in the near future.

(Disclaimer: Positions, facts, and opinions expressed above are those of the authors and may not be in agreement with the editorial policies or positions of the EmergencyNet News Service (tm), the Emergency Response or Research Institute(tm), or any employees thereto. It is presented here to provoke better understanding and an ongoing discussion of these important world developments)

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