By Jeremy Zakis, ERRI Asia and Pacific Desk

COLOMBO, SRI LANKA (EmergencyNet News) - The Sri Lankan Tamil Tiger rebels (LTTE), could resort to more attacks on the capital, Colombo, as the government military campaign in the country's north continues, diplomats and analysts say. The LTTE were blamed for a powerful bomb in a mini-bus that ripped through a busy intersection in Colombo's Maradana district on Thursday, killing 37 people and wounding more than 250.

Military officials said they were expecting more explosions. "We expect more, but we are ready," said a senior military official who declined to be identified. A military spokesman attributed the explosion to desperation among the guerrilla fighters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

"Thursday's blast clearly shows they (the rebels) are desperate. In their desperation they have lost all respect for human life," military spokesman Brigadier Sarath Munasinghe said.

A western diplomet said, "The LTTE seem to be quickening the tempo. It is possible they are getting cornered in the north and are aiming to force the soldiers back to Colombo to secure the capital." He also said the latest bomb was probably detonated prematurely, echoing views of government analysts that it was meant to hit a motorcade.

"The way the bomb was made, it was aimed at people not at buildings," he said.

The mini-bus which was driven by a lone rebel, exploded sideways sending thousands of small ball bearings into people and shops on either side of the road at the speed of bullets. There was no crater at the blast site, unlike in previous instances.

"The theory that they care for civilian life is wrong. The shrapnel pattern was meant for maximum impact," Munasinghe said. "War of explosives is the best method of creating chaos."

On a related subject, The British Sunday Times reported that tourists from Japan have been falling and Sri Lankan travel industry officials fear recent advisories by the Japanese government will lead to further declines in the tourist industry.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry issued a travel advisory in January after a Tamil Tiger rebel bomb attack in Sri Lanka's central Kandy town killed 16 people and badly damaged the country's most sacred Buddhist shrine, which is a popular tourist attraction.

The Times said the Japanese advisory was fairly comprehensive and included a map of Sri Lanka indicating danger areas. Japan also issued a similar advisory last October after Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) exploded a truck bomb in the capital's business district, killing 18 people and damaging several buildings including three five-star hotels.

Last October, it was reported that Japanese tourism in Sri Lanka had dropped 11 percent from the year-ago period. There was another 15 percent drop reported during the month of November and Japanese tourism fell by 33 percent in January 1998.

A delegation from the Sri Lanka tourist industry is due to arrive in Japan on March 22 to promote tourism in Sri Lanka. The delegation is expected to request Japan to reduce the severity of its travel advisories.

Even though the drop in tourism from Japan has been falling, the tourism industry in Sri Lanka, overall, is up by 21 percent this year. Most visitors come from the United Kingdom with Germans a close second. Sri Lanka is a popular European tourist spot because it is considered to be a low-budget vacation. The Japanese are among the top ten on the arrivals list and are considered to be important because they tend to spend more money in the island nation.

While ERRI analysts can quite understand Sri Lanka being an attractive low-budget vacation spot, nevertheless to ignore the dangers that are posed to the visitor in the country is just pure folly. No matter how anyone looks at it, Sri Lanka is a war zone and anyone considering visiting the country should be so advised. ERRI analysts condsider Sri Lanka to be an extreme risk.

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM REPORTS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

ERAVUR, SRI LANKA (EmergencyNet News) - Injuries were reported when a bomb aboard a tractor exploded in eastern Sri Lanka on Monday. Some nearby shops were reported set on fire by the blast. It was believed that Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels. No further details were immediately available. Eravur is located about 140 miles east of the capital Colombo.

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PACHCHANUR, SRI LANKA (EmergencyNet News) - At least three Sri Lankan policemen were killed when Tamil Tiger rebels attacked a police post in northeastern Sri Lanka early on Monday. The rebels had attacked the post in the village of Pachchanur at about 0245 hours local time.