ERRI SPECIAL REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services Wednesday, February 25, 1998

Testimony of Clark L. Staten, Executive Director and Senior Analyst,
Emergency Response & Research Institute, Chicago, IL

Before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and Government Information,
U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee

February 24, 1998

"Foreign Terrorism in the United States: Five years After the World Trade Center"

Good Day, my name is Clark Staten and I am the Executive Director of the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) in Chicago, IL. I am a U.S. Army veteran, a former police officer, and in 1995 I retired as an Assistant Chief Paramedic from the Chicago Fire Department. I have served as a counter-terrorism instructor for the U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, and a number of Law Enforcement agencies. I have been researching and reporting on terrorism issues since 1985 and am the author of a book entitled, "The Emergency Response Guide to Terrorism."

This report is being given at what will probably prove to be a historical time in the history of the United States as American troops prepare for another confrontation with Saddam Hussein and the country of Iraq. In the wake of this latest conflict it would seem most appropriate to look at both the overall problem of terrorism and specific concerns about what the future may hold for the United States.

bluered.gif (876 bytes) General Considerations

The facts would suggest that the threat of terrorism is multi-dimensional, both domestic and international, and comes from a variety of political and religious tangents. It is an assault on freedom and free nations by extremists, insurgents, shadow warriors, and the geo-politically impotent. It is a war of surrogate engagement often involving attacks by the "have nots" against those they perceive as "haves."

To understand this increasing more dangerous problem, let's briefly examine some of the psychological aspects and the motivating factors behind terrorists' dissatisfaction and murderous attacks:

Contrary to popular belief, terrorism isn't just about the color of a person's skin, their religious beliefs, or their political ideology. It's about fanaticism...extremists who take any reasonable belief to an absurd conclusion and then justify abnormal, and often dangerous, behavior in the furtherance of their convoluted beliefs. For example, most members of the Islamic faith aren't fanatics, nor violent, nor uncaring, nor do they resemble any of the other negative connotations that have been attributed to them. The real problem of Islamic Fundamentalism involves only a very small percentage of zealots, who have chosen to undertake violent acts, allegedly in the furtherance of their religion, when in fact, they commit these acts in contradiction of their faith.

Terrorism isn't about power in the conventional sense...rather, it may be about perceived powerlessness. It is a seemingly illogical response by individuals, groups, and even nation-states who feel minimized and relegated to a meaningless or inconsequential position in society. It would appear to be their dysfunctional way of responding to events and circumstances dictated by more conventional, mainstream, or majority events and thinking. It can be described as a small minority "raging against the machine" of organized religion, politics, government, or general societal norms. Terrorism is often spawned in overt repression, a lack of individual freedoms, or in an environment that lacks respect for minority viewpoints and individuals.

There would also appear to be strong elements of greed, avarice, and "coveting of thy neighbors' possessions" in much of terrorism that is occurring today. In many recent low-intensity conflicts, the motivating factors have involved a problem as old as society itself. This geo-political/economic struggle has been occurring since the first caveman killed his neighbor in order to inhabit a "better" cave. The age-old story is one of the use of violence to obtain control of more and better possessions, be they a flock of sheep, natural resources, a country, or an entire region.

Then there are the anarchists, the sociopathic, and psychologically imbalanced, who are so angry and disillusioned with society as a whole and their own failures that they believe that the only solution is the complete destruction of all around them. They are the most unpredictable and difficult to combat, because they do not adhere to normal behavioral patterns or rationality. These are the mass murderers and suicide bombers of the world, people who attack school yards full of children with an AK-47 and blow up senior citizen centers, all in the name of whatever cause they have chosen. They will commit any and every atrocity in an attempt to cause fear and attain some sense of power.

 bluered.gif (876 bytes) International Terrorism

"New York, NY - 02/26/93 -- What has been described as a "tremendous detonation" roared through several floors of the World Trade Center this afternoon and sparked a major fire that burned for more than two (2) hours. Early reports indicate that the explosion occurred at approximately 12:18 p.m. EST and that the point of origin of the blast was probably in a parking garage two stories below street level. The immediate area of detonation was described as a hole more than 30 square meters in diameter. The burst is also blamed for causing a ceiling collapse in the Port Authority Trans Hudson (PATH) train station, which reportedly caused as many as fifty (50) injuries due to falling debris."(1)

The report above triggered a realization on the part of many Americans that the face of the terrorism had changed and that it had now come to the shores of America. Before the World trade Center bombing, many Americans believed that terrorism was something "remote," one of those things that only happened someplace else. Many suffered from a state of denial. Sadly, it took an explosion in our largest city to convince the American public that the threat of terrorism from abroad was real, and that it could happen here.

Since then, we have witnessed several waves of terrorist attacks, including those against bus stations and markets in Israel, several bombings near the tourist sites of Paris, France, almost daily bombing in Algeria, a series of chemical attacks in Tokyo, Japan, the still-unsolved destruction of a U.S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia, an attack on the Olympics in Atlanta, GA, and literally hundreds of other unassociated acts of extreme violence, too numerous to mention in this report.

In keeping with an emerging patterns of "state-less terrorism," ERRI analysts suggest that it is likely that the perpetrators of a number of recent acts against the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other allies have consisted of a specially put together "cells" of terrorist specialists that were brought together just for the purposes of each individual act and then disbanded to their host countries. It is also likely that the "specialists" are of a similar extremist ideological or religious philosophy and may act in manner consistent with previously identified "mercenary groups," even though they may or may not be committing the acts for money. While they may be financially supported, equipped, and motivated by a sponsor country or group of countries, no direct ties can easily be drawn to any single state. This kind of compartmentalization makes capture of the terrorists difficult and placing direct responsibility for the act even more troublesome.

Terrorist financiers like Osama bin-Laden may be part of this trend of "stateless warfare," where the insurgent objectives and policies of identifiable nation-states such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, and others are being carried out by specially put together teams of "deniable" political and religious operatives. These terrorists, after carrying out a terrorist act, can easily melt back into the civilian population of any sympathetic nation and make it next to impossible for the United States or her allies to trace and "legally" take action against the nation that actually condoned or sponsored the atrocity. It is likely that the World Trade Center Bombing was one of the first instances where this phenomenon was observed and studied.

The resulting circumstances of this trend may explain the difficulties our country has seen in the FBI investigation of the Dhahran bombing and in several other recent terrorist acts. It may also help to explain the reason why no one group has claimed responsibility for any number of terrorist events. There is no recognizable cell/group before the attack, and there is no recognizable cell or group after the attack...they only exist as a very compartmentalized organization during the planning and carrying out of the operation. This makes detection, prevention or apprehension of the terrorists very difficult, at best...and limits the public ability of the victim nation to engage in legitimate retaliation for what could well be considered an 'act of war'."

Concerning very current events, CT analysts at ERRI say that they fear that the only viable avenue for Saddam Hussein's revenge on the United States may be through the use of terrorism. As Operation Desert Storm showed, it is implausible for Iraq to engage in a direct combat confrontation with the United States or her allies in the Middle East. Most analysts say that even Saddam Hussein, who has never displayed a great deal of restraint nor military competence regarding any conflict with his enemies, should recognize the foolhardiness of a direct attack on the United States. A preferable revenge for Iraq, however, could well involve having a "surrogate terrorist" carry out an attack on our country that Hussein could publicly or privately take credit for.

It is also possible, based on our current threat assessment, that there is an increased likelihood that other Mid-Eastern or Asian extremist groups may also undertake terrorist attacks on the United States, her bases overseas, or her allies, allegedly in "sympathy" with the regime in Iraq. Such threats have already been received from Hamas and other splinter groups, who have openly theatened to attack Israel or the United States, in the event that a military strike is directed at Iraq.

bluered.gif (876 bytes) Chemical/Biological/Nuclear Terrorism

"Chicago, IL, - May 22, 1995 -- The magnitude and atrocity of the poison gas attack in Tokyo is just starting to become realized by emergency response officials throughout the world. Many admit they have been living in a state of professional denial about the possibility of such an attack. Many have voiced an opinion, in a variety of ways, that "it can't happen here"...or "it won't happen at all". Many were awakened by a startling realization, yesterday, that it has happened, and could happen again. The "chemical genie" was out of the bottle.(2)

A flurry of official faxes and telephone calls to our offices in Chicago began to ask; "What would we do if it happened here?...How do you treat nerve gas poisoning?...What can be done to neutralize it?...How can this be prevented?...Do we have a plan for this?". Unfortunately, the answers are not heartening. All too many officials are willing to admit that they do not have a plan, nor the necessary resources, to effectively manage a major poisoning incident like that which occurred in Tokyo.

In fairness, there were and are a number of Fire/Police/Paramedic chiefs in the United States who are aware of the implications of a terrorist attack or a major accident involving chemical or biological weapons. But, most candidly acknowledge that, during current government downsizing, they don't have the budgetary assets to adequately train personnel or buy equipment that would be necessary to effectively prepare for the threat. Most say that they would hope to be at least minimally prepared and look to the state or federal government to provide additional means and measures that might be needed. Emergency preparedness experts, however, tell us that they fear that the arrival of supplies and personnel from other (state and federal) agencies might be so delayed as to prove ineffectual to assist those poisoned by a chemical/biological terrorist attack." (3)(4)

Given the proliferation of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons in the world, our assessment would have to suggest that the potential for a terrorist attack involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is one that the United States will face in the foreseeable future. In fact, the likelihood of the use of these fearsome weapons may have increased since 1995 and the Aum Shin-Rikyo attack in Tokyo.(5)(6)

Current trends in terrorism statistics, complied by the U.S. State Department and the FBI, would suggest that today's terrorists may be committing fewer acts, but those that occur are far deadlier than in the past. Unfortunately, the use of WMD fits this pattern perfectly and enables terrorists to kill large numbers of people with extreme efficiency and relatively inexpensive materials.

Of most serious consideration by emergency planners is the fact that most civilian emergency service agencies, including specialized hazardous materials teams, currently do not possess the effective testing equipment to help identify sophisticated chemical or biological warfare agents that might be used in a potential terrorist attack. While they may be able to quantify those agents that have civilian counter-parts, for instance - organophosphate pesticides - there are any number of others, for which they have no testing reagents or detection meters. It is suggested that federal funding be made available for the purchase of the necessary detection and monitoring equipment that emergency agencies will need to manage this burgeoning threat.

Further, one of the present problems concerning the response to chemical/ biological agents is the fact that very little information sharing is taking place between differing agencies, except on an informal or individual basis. Secondarily, there is no national "clearing house" or database of exercises that have been conducted, "lessons learned," outcomes of actual incidents, or model programs to be emulated in planning efforts. It is highly recommended that a national central repository of related data be designated and funding provided for its operation.

All of these facts and opinions point out the need for immediate funding of new and different kind training and equipment for local Police/Fire/EMS personnel. They are the front-line of defense if the unthinkable happens... and some fanatic were to attack our country with these weapons of mass destruction(WMD). Bottom-line...we need to develop and deploy a totally integrated response against terrorists and terrorism...this must include all State, Federal, and local emergency agencies, the military, and the medical research community...if we, collectively, are to be truly prepared for the threat of a chemical or biological attack.

 bluered.gif (876 bytes) The Coming Era of Stateless Warfare

Martin Van Creveld in his seminal work, "The Transformation of War", contends we are seeing the end of a monopoly on violence by larger nation-states. This monopoly is being replaced by a panorama of "stateless actors" responsible for threats to our security.(7)

It should also be noted that there is also an increasing amount of evidence to suggest that there is an emerging trend that involves an intermingling, coordination and cooperation between drug gangs, organized crime organizations, revolutionary groups and terrorists. This troubling situation can be seen, for instance, in Colombia, where drug cartels are believed to be financing and providing weapons to "revolutionary organizations" in exchange for protection of their drug smuggling operations. It is also likely that these sort of arrangements are also migrating into Mexico, where they might be an even greater threat to the United States in the future.

Additionally, a recent arrest of a Russian national in Miami, FL, might suggest that the "Russian Mafia" is engaging in drug smuggling schemes with the South American cartels and importing Cocaine and other drugs into Europe and parts of the former Soviet Union. Any number of other occurrences are too common to be coincidence. As additional evidence is gathered, it is believed that even greater ties will be demonstrated in these areas.

As the concept of "stateless warfare" continues to emerge, and its implications better understood, it would appear that there is a greater need for closer cooperation between civilian emergency service and military agencies. Greater collaboration between Fire/Police/EMS and Military agencies could prove mandatory in domestic terrorism circumstances such as large scale bombings, or particularly those involving chemical or biological weapons.(2)(3)

Although we are not currently advocating greater military participation in civilian law enforcement functions at this time, necessary over-lapping and concurrent responsibilities, functions, and a need for cooperation could quickly become apparent...as terrorist acts cause an interdependency in both civilian/military agency chains of command. Certainly, at a bare minimum, direct and continual communications should be authorized between vital civilian emergency and military agencies and it is recommended that more direct communication be enabled in the immediate future.

Another problem that must be addressed is the fact that terrorist events may move faster than our current responses to them...leading to decision- makers being forced into making uneducated "guesses" about what to do next. Currently available terrorism information may not only be slow in arriving at the incident scene, but also be inappropriate or irrelevant to those that need it to make decisions. The real requirement is to acquire and analyze pertinent intelligence data, in as close to real-time as possible, and to speed up the decision-making loop at an incident scene. Communications and interagency cooperation, at all levels, are a must at a terrorist incident.

Current operational trends in stateless warfare may also require that we track individual terrorists...particularly those with specialized capabilities like explosives, assassinations, etc. Greater computer capability and increasing cooperation between nations can make this possible. We might suggest that this same information could be used for air travel profiling databases, which could help target terrorists, rather than just trying to track the general public.

bluered.gif (876 bytes) Information Warfare/Propaganda/Psychological Operations

Numerous examples are available of the covert and/or potentially damaging use of technology by America's adversaries. A primary problem would seem to involve the fact that America continues to computerize and connect government, military, business, and personal computer systems together. Wait, you are probably saying, isn't that what we want to do in order to become more productive and innovative? As with most things in life, there is both "good news" and "bad news" in this part of the story.

The good news is that computers have made major contributions to America's productivity, creativity, security, and overall success in the past decade. User interactivity, communications, data-sharing and "just-in-time" logistic schemes have created an economic powerhouse in America. But, the bad news is that with all of these connections, advantages, and advances comes an increasing vulnerability to penetration and attacks on our computers by criminals, crackers, and computer terrorists.(8)

The President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection recently noted that all it takes is "a personal computer and a simple telephone connection to an internet service provider, anyplace in the world...to cause a great deal of harm." Additionally, the commission addressed in depth, the issue of the use of computers to attack the United States and her national assets. "Recreational hackers," cyber-terrorism, criminal manipulation," industrial espionage, virus dissemination, and large scale information warfare campaigns were all cited by the report as being part of an evolving threat to America and her allies. We would suggest an extensive effort involving public awareness and joint government/corporate cooperation in developing an effective "electronic civil defense" to combat these future threats.

Global communications strategies are changing, and even small terrorist groups are now using the internet to broadcast their message and misdirect/ misinform the general population in multiple nations simultaneously. This trend has accelerated in recent days as extemist causes have used internet and fax technology to spread misinformation and foster support for Saddam Hussein and the despotic regime in Iraq. [In February and June] We have provided the committee staff (under separate cover), with several examples of both international and domestic messages that engage in anti-American and anti-Israeli propaganda and threats, to include a widely distributed extremist call for "jihad" against American and Great Britain. We would expect these practices to increase in volume and sophistication as time passes.

Although harder to document through open source means and methods, it would also appear that drug trafficking and terrorist operations are being planned and implemented through the use of internet, satellite communications, and encrypted messages. Reports have been received that drug cartels have developed "counter-intelligence centers" that have communications interception and monitoring equipment that is as good, or better, than that used by the U.S. government. It is also believed that members of some Islamic extremist organizations have been attempting to develop a "hacker network" to support their computer activities and even engage in offensive information warfare attacks in the future.

In light of these facts, we believe that military and law enforcement agencies must be better trained and equipped to counter increasing more sophisticated uses of the internet and other communications systems by our adversaries. Additionally, we would recommend that the internet and other assets be used more extensively to gather open source (OSINT) information on America's detractors and known opponents. There is a wealth of information to be gained, in a very cost effective way, through innovative OSINT methods. This OSINT program should be part of a larger "all-source" intelligence gathering and analysis effort on the part of the United States.

bluered.gif (876 bytes) Conclusions

First, and foremost, we must avoid giving in to feelings of desperation and fear that plays into the hands of terrorists. That is one of their primary objectives...to propagate mistrust of public agencies, institutions, religions, governments, and societal norms. They want to create an atmosphere that suggests that citizens can't be protected and provided for by existing governmental structures. They want unmitigated fear to undermine our confidence in those we elect or pay to serve and protect us.

Second, we should be aware that terrorists will use all of the available technologies to spread propaganda, misinformation, threats, intimidation, and engage in manipulation of the press. Our enemies will propagate unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, and use every other possible means to discredit our government and the institutions of America and her allies. We must, collectively, therefore, foster methods of maintaining belief in both our government and way of life. It is this unshakable belief in the "goodness" of our representative system and its inherent freedom that is our greatest strength.

Third, we would hope to circumvent an attack prior to it's occurrence through means of intelligence gathering, infiltration, predictive analysis and proactive law enforcement, but we should consider the fact that the openness of American society makes us particularly vulnerable to an isolated group of fanatics who are intent on causing us mass casualties. It is ironic that it may be the very freedom and openness of our society that places us at risk. While we might sincerely wish that there were some reasonable or moderate response to prevent or combat all of these savage acts of barbarism, there does not appear to be many options that will effectively terminate the terrorist's actions without sometimes resorting to equal or greater force. Covert pre-emptive actions may need to be taken, in order to save American lives. American can not afford to be squeamish or engage in mistaken political correctness in the application of force when dealing with proven violent terrorist organizations.

Fourth, one of the greatest hopes of terrorists is that a government will overreact to threats of terrorism or actual terrorist acts, and implement repressive and draconian measures in an attempt to thwart the threat. They are hopeful that government officials will diminish individual freedoms, conduct extensive surveillance campaigns, restrict the press and free speech, monitor and outlaw peaceful public gatherings, and eventually fight "on the streets" with demonstrators and defenders of these liberties. The "bad guys" know that historically such tactics often prompt further dissension and eventually cause chaos and an attempted overthrow of any government that undertakes "heavy-handed" and restrictive measures. Terrorists would like nothing better...they thrive on chaos, mistrust, fear, and hatred.

The temptation to implement invasive and restrictive legislation may, at times be great. But, Americans must work together to retain as many of the individual freedoms, provided in the U.S. Constitution, as is practically possible. It is respectfully suggested that any changes in these fundamental rights and privileges, afforded to citizens, should only be made with the understanding and concurrence of those governed. While certain changes may need to be made to minimize any threat to the security of the nation, it certainly should not be done at the expense of the personal freedoms that make this country worth defending. To do so, would mean that we have lost the very essence of our country and the fanatics and the terrorists will have won...we can not let that happen.

bluered.gif (876 bytes) References:

1. "Terrorist Bomb Rocks World Trade Center, Seven (7) Dead, 650 Injured," by Anderson, P., EmergencyNet News Special Report, 02/26/93-20:00CST

2. "Terrorist Attack in Toyko," by Anderson, P. and Staten, C., EmergencyNet News Special Report, March 19, 1995-22:15CST

3. "Chemical Attack- Are We Prepared?" By Staten, C., EmergencyNet News Special Report, May 22, 1995

4. "Emergency Response to Chemical/Biological Terrorist Incidents," by Staten, C., presented at XII Annual International Symposium on Criminal Justice Issues, The Escalation of the Terrorist Threat: Issues in Chemical/ Biological and Cyber Terror, Office of International Criminal Justice, University of Illinois, 08/07/97

5. "Responding to Poison Gas", Los Angeles Times, Page A6, March 22, 1995

6. Weapons of Mass Destruction-Terrorism, By Campbell, J. Cmdr., USN, Interpact Press, 1997, Pg. 51-70

7. "Emerging, Devolving Threat of Terrorism," by Fuller, F. USAJFKSWCS, Ft. Bragg, NC and Col. Wilson, G.I. OSD, USMC, Excerpt from the EmergencyNet News Daily Report, 11/30/96, Vol. 2, No. 335

8. "Reflections on the 1997 Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) Report," By Staten, C., 10/23/97-16:30CST


 (C) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.

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