The Crumbling Russian Military

Excerpted from the EmergencyNet News Daily Report
09/01/96 - Vol. 2, No. 245

RUSSIA'S CRUMBLING MILITARY ...
By Steve Macko, ENN Editor

When the Chechen rebels battled Russian government troops for Grozny during the week of 6 August, they did more than give the Russians a bloody nose. Some descriptions of the battle said that the Russians were "humiliated." The statistics seem to suggest that description to be true. Killed were 451 Russian troops. Another 1,264 were wounded. Many, many more were recorded as missing, but there are reports that many of those may have actually been soldiers who had deserted.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin had handed the Chechen problem over to his national security chief Alexander Lebed. In a sense, Yeltsin threw the ball to Lebed to see if he could find a way out of the abyss that the Russian government has found itself in with the would-be breakaway region of Chechnya. Lebed has had some success in negotiating a settlement in the region, but has consistently been undercut by other military and political leaders in Moscow, as he conducted shuttle diplomacy between Grozny and Moscow.

Some people wonder why has Russia fought so hard to keep this region that few had ever heard of before? The answer is quite simple ... it's oil. Black gold. What some Americans call, "Texas tea." Chechnya has a large amount of oil and the Russians aren't just going to let that walk awayand leave it for others. They also have concerns about Moslem incursion into the former Soviet Union and the possible instability, in other republics, that allowing Chechnya to break away could cause

Chechnya has become Alexander Lebed's top priority. But our study, here, is not the Chechen war. It's what has become of the Russian military. For decades following the second world war, the Soviet military machine was feared and respected. Military strength in Russia has been a very important fact for centuries; before and during communism. Leaders and members of the military were also held in high esteem. Today, the current Defense Minister, General Igor Rodionov, says of his own military, "Our armed forces do not have a single regiment capable of launching a combat action or moving by rail or air at two or three hours' notice."

So, what happened? What happened to this once-respected military machine?

The only Russian military force that is still well-run is said to be the Strategic Rocket Force. They control and maintain the approximately 700 mobile and/or silo-based intercontinental nuclear ballistic missiles. This force is described as operational and efficient. James Brusstar of the Institute for National Strategic Studies in Washington said, "It's the one force that's gotten all the money it needs." But the Strategic Rocket Force is the only operational force that can be looked upon as being completely operationally ready. The rest of the military, the army, the navy and the air force would appear to have big, major problems."

Here is just a partial list of some of the woes of the Russian Military:

Military Equipment. What was once considered to be the former Soviet military-industrial complex has virtually been ground to a halt. Plants that once rolled out thousands of tanks are now standing idle. Russia has not completed the construction of one single warship since 1991. In 1995, they were trying to sell some uncompleted ships, including at least one aircraft carrier. Since 1995, the Air Force has received less than ten new aircraft. Even though the army has considerably less personnel today, they don't have enough uniforms to go around and civilian clothing has been permitted to be worn.

Morale Of The Troops. It has been said that crime and corruption in the Russian military even exceeds what is happening in the civilian world. This area is not pretty. Officers are said to abuse each other and their troops. Border troops reportedly deal in narcotics. Air Force officers don't get paid. Tens of thousands of military personnel have second jobs. William Odom, the highly- respected former director of the U.S. National Security Agency and who is an expert on Russia at the Hudson Institute, said, "If you issue an order, what happens is unpredictable." Is it any wonder when orders from Moscow to commanders in the Chechen theater were not carried out if those commanders didn't agree with the orders? This is no way to run a military.

Training Of The Troops. The Russian Army does not hold exercises on the divisional or regimental level. Virtually every tank and infantry division is rated unfit for combat. Which in itself is astounding. Jet fighter pilots only receive ten percent as many training sorties as their Western counterparts. Another incredible example is that submarine commanders have to fill out their crews with sailors from surface vessels in order to go out on patrol.

Military Budget. In 1996, Russia spent about $17 billion on defense. That is less than ten percent what the United States spends and about one third what Russian defense officials sought. Some military analysts say that Russia may actually be spending a bit more than the above figure -- but its still nowhere near what it used to be during the Soviet era.

Andrei Piontkovsky of the Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow says that weak leadership, high-level infighting and Russia's uncertainty about its post-Cold War status are to blame to what has happened to its military. In July of this year, President Yeltsin replaced the unpopular Pavel Grachev as Defense Minister. In his place, he named General Igor Rodionov. It will be Rodionov's job to reform the military. Unfortunately, since Rodionov is near retirement age -- he may not have enough time to finish the massive job. Rodionov is no fool. He is said to be a long-term strategic thinker and is well-versed on Russian security issues. A purge of the Army's top ranks is said to be likely and at the top of Rodionov's list.

He has a smaller military to deal with. Russian forces today are said to number at about 1.5 million troops. By comparison, the Soviet Union had 4.25 million troops in 1989. One important question is whether Russia will be able to go from a conscript military to an all-volunteer professional operation by the year 2000. There would be some doubt if that could be accomplished. Russia is unable to pay its personnel now. What are they going to offer to a potential recruit?

Rodionov recently gave an interview and said that he would like Russia to have a professional military at about the personnel levels that the country has at this time. The armed forces will place special emphasis on nuclear weapons, mobility and high-tech equipment. A very good observation Rodionov made was that Russia is no longer a global power. It is now a regional power. It's main military doctrine will place emphasis on defense, as he said, "To repel and contain a first strike." Rodionov did not name who he might consider enemies of Russia. Military experts suggest that Russia's main defensive concerns lay not with NATO expansion, but with China and its volatile southern border area -- these are the areas most likely that can be considered for any future conflict. The Russians, like the Americans and other major powers must also concern themselves with "low-intensity conflicts" and "guerilla movements", which may be the source of terrorist attacks and increasing instability in the coming years.

It may appear that we wish for the old days of the Russian military to return. But that's not true. What is sad, to a certain extent, is that an old, respected adversary has shrunken to thelevel that it has. It really is quite shocking. But it is also very dangerous. Russia still maintains a very powerful nuclear arsenal. It is still considered to be the one country that could destroy the U.S. or any other country with a nuclear strike. Because Russia has weakened its forces to such a dangerous level, it increases the prospect that should an enemy push too hard, Moscow would have to resort to nuclear weapons in order to prevail. That is very scary and it is very real.

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