***ERRI News Round-Up/Analysis; 08/22/96****
By Clark Staten, Analyst

This is a brief summary of on-going events, chosen by the Emergency Response & Research Institute, as significant in the coming days.

International Scene:

1> Chechnya - Former General and current Nation Security Advisor Lebed has been placed in the possibly untenable position of attempting to find a peaceful solution to the conflict in the break-away Republic of Chechnya. Some experts believe that Lebed may have been set-up for failure by "hard-core" members of the general staff; others fear the possibility of an anti-democracy military coup in Russia. All-in-all, the stability of the former superpower may be at risk, this region bears close scrutiny in the coming days.

2> Pakistan - As previously reported by ENN, the country of Pakistan may be on the verge of a "civil war", as fractional violence continues between religious and political organizations. Threats have reportedly been made against American interests in the area by Islamic militant groups. Rifle assaults and bombings continue there on an almost daily basis.

3> Saudi Arabia - Threats and published accounts of threats by pro-militant spokespeople in England and elsewhere continue to warn of another attack on American or Saudi forces in the near future. SecDef William Perry has himself reported concerns of additional attacks. Other concerns continue to be raised about the seeming lack of information coming from our Saudi allies in regard to the Dhahran housing bombing. Speculation continues of whether the attack was sponsored/financed by another nation-state or an internal dissident group.

4> Korea - Several N. Korean defections in the past few days would seem to indicate that food shortages and economic hardship may have further increased in the communist stronghold, despite efforts by U.S., Japanese, and other international relief organizations. Recent rains and flooding may have made an already bad situation worse. S.Korean officials have issued warnings within the past 48 hours that they fear "provocations" by N. Korean forces in the coming days. Tensions are already high in S. Korea, following several days of "pro-unification" student riots, allegedly inspired by N. Korean "agitators." Joint U.S./R.O.K. military exercises will begin soon.

5> Israel/Gaza - Multiple reports continue to come in to ENN about alleged plots by splinter Palestinian groups to assassinate Yasar Arafat and end his control of the Palestinian Authority. Coupled with increasingly threatening rhetoric by Iranian sources, ERRI analysts see the possibility of additional terror attacks in Israel in the coming days. Additionally, American support for the PLO/Israeli peace process, and its recent attempt at essentially unilateral sanctions against Iran and Libya, place it at higher risk as well.

National:

1> Infrastructure Attacks - A continual assessment, by ERRI, of possible infrastructure attacks against the the United States reveals vulnerability in a number of areas. Concerns have been raised about public, private, and government computer networks, power grids, water supplies, food supplies, public transportation systems, and any area of mass gathering. All could be targets of potential terrorist attack. The primary problem concerns the fact that many of these basic and essential services have not be "hardened" to withstand insurgent assault. A debate can be expected to continue about the trade-off of civil liberties for additional security.

For additional details, please feel free to contact:

Emergencynet News Service
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