Chicago, IL., August 9, 1995 -- The Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) today announced the first release of a by a new computer-generated reporting tool regarding both international and domestic terrorism, and particularly anticipated acts directed against the United States.
Clark Staten, Executive Director of ERRI, a Chicago-based emergency service 'think tank", said that the new reporting mechanism will reflect the latest advances in computer information gathering and analysis. Staten said that the ERRI "prediction chart" is based on a database of twelve (12) years of accumulated data on terrorist incidents, that have occurred throughout the world. Staten continued by saying that current data is updated on a daily basis and that the program attempts to make predictions based on modeling and tracking of trends that have precipitated violent acts in the past. Additionally, human analysis of current data, as it is entered, allows it to be given greater or lesser weight in the overall determination of future threat levels.
Although Staten admits that this subjective input can change the outcome of predictions made by the "expert system", and that the programming is constantly being upgraded to provide a better technical picture of the world situation, he says that the human evaluations are still necessary to give the program a more accurate picture of near-term anticipated events. As additional "expert rules" are added, he continued, it is anticipated that the program will get better and better at identifying circumstances that could forecast potential terrorist acts.
Tom Lorinzi, ERRI computer systems analyst, said that ERRI and it's reporting arm, EmergencyNet NEWS, have been using the new system for most of 1995, and have found it to be "amazingly accurate" in anticipating times when the likelihood of an extremist act is increased. He said that the biggest problem encountered, so far, is the inputting of the tremendous number of variables that are necessary for the program to make "good decisions". Lorinzi concluded by saying that the ERRI system is one of the few in the world, outside of major intelligence and police agencies, that is attempting to analyze and report on potential acts of violence.
Staten concluded the interview by saying that ERRI will utilize the new "Terrorist Watch Chart" in future news releases, when significant events warrant a change in the threat status of the United States.
For more information about this timely topic, contact:
(c) Emergencynet NEWS Service, 1995
Emergency Response & Research Institute
6348 N. Milwaukee Ave., #312, Chicago, IL 60646
(312) 631-ERRI - Voice/Voice Mail
(312) 631-4703 - Fax
(312) 631-3950 - Computer/Modem-EMERGENCY BBS-28,800bps