The NDF is in the business of monitoring hostilities that result in regional instability. They also include, to the objection of many analysts, major criminal activity and drug trafficking.
There was an increase of three new worldwide conflict areas compared to 1996. In all, there were 67 conflict areas, according to the NDF, which advocates increased defense spending for the U.S. military.
The number of 67 conflict areas is almost double the number when the Berlin Wall came down and the Cold War ended. The highest number of worldwide conflict areas recorded by the NDCF was in 1995 when there were 71.
The NDF report said: "The main causes of this year's turmoil were the continued vacillating leadership by the United States, illogical and selective interventions by various groups -- including the U.N. -- and proliferation issues and religious extremism."
The survey included an "instability indicator" that is said to be based on economic, social, political and security in individual countries. States with the highest instability rates, those "most likely to implode or explode over the next year," include North Korea, Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Sudan.
Some of the hot spots listed are far from the daily headlines in the mainstream press, but can be read about in the ERRI daily reports. They include:
-- Political
violence in French Guyana -- where serious riots and shootings occurred and the French
government was forced to send hundreds of police reinforcements to help restore order.
Citizens in this South American overseas territory are not happy with the French
government. Could be another thorn in the side of the French, like Corsica.--
Anti-establishment bombings in Greece -- In which a few law enforcement officers were
wounded in 1997. Expect more in 1998.--
Drug-associated violence in Laos.-- Insurgent
activities in Bougainville -- which helped to bring down the government in Papua New
Guinea last year.-- A
separatist movement in Senegal -- in which ERRI analysts feel that this will probably be
next African nation that will experience serious conflict. There is a separatist movement
in Casamance district. Could this be the next African civil war?Other expected hot spots for 1998 (ERRI projections) include:
--
Afghanistan. Where the civil war will continue and neither side will make any major gains.-- Albania.
Political violence, terrorism, voter intimidation by armed gangs will continue despite
government efforts to improve the security situation. The big problem, here, is everybody
is armed to the teeth with an assault rifle in the closet of literally every home.-- Algeria.
Where the massacres and bombings will continue and the body count will mount and little to
nothing will be done about it. We fail to understand why the world community has failed to
act to stop the carnage in Algeria.-- Brazil.
Drug violence and criminal activity, particularly in major urban areas. Perhaps not as bad
as Colombia, but the security situation is expected to degrade in the next year.
Cross-border problems can also be expected to occur.-- Burundi.
The Hutus and Tutsis will continue to kill one another like they've been doing for ages.
Tensions with Rwanda could erupt.-- Colombia.
Insurgent violence will continue most likely at the same pace as in 1997. Neither side is
seen to be gaining ground.-- Comoros.
Separatist activity on Anjouan and Moheli Islands. An ongoing situation that is still
unresolved, despite numerous efforts to bring an end to the dispute.-- Republic of
Congo. Civil war, incursions by Angola. An African powder-keg that can blow at anytime.-- India. No
end in sight of the separatist violence. Clashes with government troops and bombings will
continue.-- Italy.
Separatist violence, widespread Mafia activity. The northern part of the country wants to
separate from the southern half and this sentiment is growing. There is an ongoing mob war
in Naples.-- Iraq.
Saddam is going to get spanked for being bad. The only question is how hard? The only
thing that is predictable about Mr Hussein is is his unpredictability. However, he doesn't
seem predisposed to engage in a real conflict with the USA. -- Iran. We're
going out on a limb on this one -- should something happen to the popular President
Khatami, the masses could start another revolution and it won't be to the liking of the
hardline ayatollahs like "supreme leader" Khamenei.-- Israel. The
northern border with Syria and Lebanon may heat up. More difficulties with HAMAS is
expected.-- The Kosovo
region of Serbia. Many analysts are picking this area to explode in 1998. There is a
danger that the violence could spillover into neighboring regions and even into Albania.
In the last six months, many weapons stolen in Albania have reached nationalists in
Kosovo, giving them an arms capability equal to the Serbian police.-- Mexico.
Where ERRI analysts are closely watching the security situation that seems to be getting
worse as of late. As of right now, expect more attacks by rebels...particularly in the
Southern parts of the country. Expect more drug-related violence on/near the U.S. border.-- Northern
Ireland. Regardless of on-going negotiations, all signs point to a resumption of violence.
This could be bloody.-- Pakistan.
Though apparently under control at the moment -- sectarian violence can erupt at any time.
It was also recently announced that the Gross Nation Product (GNP) of the "black
market" economy in Pakistan exceeds that of the official government. This development
may not bode well for the future of the country.-- Peru.
Another border conflict with Ecuador may be brewing. Will President Fujimori be able to
keep his military on a leash?--
Philippines. Border dispute in the South China Sea, flare-up of Muslim and Marxist
insurgencies. Kidnapping and bombings on the increase. This is a country to watch.-- Sri Lanka.
There could be a big push by the government to finally crush the LTTE rebels.-- Venezuela.
Some analysts expect a big increase in narco-violence.