Series of Reports Converning Increasing Nuclear Crisis Between India and Pakistan: 05/12/98 to 05/28/98
(Includes initial reports of both Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Tests, by members of the EmergencyNet News Team)

Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, May 12, 1998-INT4-132

Indmisl.gif (15134 bytes)INDIA TESTS THREE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
From the ERRI Watch Center

NEW DELHI (EmergencyNet News) - India on Monday set off three underground nuclear explosions and announced it was capable of making nuclear weapons. This event enraged its neighbor and rival, Pakistan, and defied a worldwide campaign to contain the spread of nuclear arms.

India's two-month-old government, that is beginning to look more and more reckless, is led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Monday's nuclear tests surprised allies and enemies alike with the nation's first nuclear tests in 24 years. The underground nuclear tests were conducted in the desert 330 miles southwest of New Delhi. No radiation was released into the atmosphere.

Indian scientists were said to had tested a fission device, a low-yield device and a thermonuclear device. India did not comment on the size of  the explosions. The Swiss Federal Institute of Technology said its earthquake-measuring devices put the magnitude at 5.2, which it said  would be equal to about 10 kilotons of TNT. The U.S. atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan, was the equivalent of about 15 kilotons.

Pakistan, also believed to have nuclear capability, immediately replied to tests and pledged to make its defenses "impregnable against any Indian threat, be it nuclear or conventional."

Pakistani Foreign Minister Gauhar Ayub said, "The responsibility for dealing a death blow to the global efforts at nuclear nonproliferation rests squarely with India."

The United States reacted by expressing disappointment, but did not say if it would ban aid or impose sanctions to keep sophisticated technology out of India.

A U.S. State Department spokesman called India's tests a "very, very negative development" that threatened world security.

Jasjit Singh, director of the New Delhi's independent Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, accused the United States of refusing to take India's fears of China and Pakistan seriously. He cited U.S. willingness to sell nuclear equipment to China. India accuses China of supplying nuclear weapons technology and ballistic missiles to Pakistan even after signing the nuclear nonproliferation treaty in 1992.

India has said it is going nuclear because of its sense of being ignored and because of an argument that the nuclear powers want to keep their military advantage and deny it to others.

Singh has called on the government to develop its delivery system as part of a credible nuclear defense. He said it could take another ten years for India to perfect an arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of reaching major targets in China.

A United Nations statement noted that India had not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty that was adopted in September 1996 by the U.N. General Assembly. The treaty, which has not taken force, would ban all nuclear tests. It was signed by all five nations that acknowledge holding nuclear weapons -- the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.

Condemnation of India came swift on Tuesday. Japan, Australia and New Zealand all condemned India's tests. All three said they had or planned to recall their ambassadors -- the strongest diplomatic protest short of cutting off relations.

Despite the angry worldwide reactions, Indian officials were clearly in a celebratory mood. During an appearance Monday on CNN-International's "Q and A" program, India's ambassador to the United States, Naresh Chandra, said the tests did not signal an attempt to develop nuclear weapons on a large scale.

Chandra said, "It became absolutely necessary for India to re-establish its capability and update that capability. These tests do not involve any infringement of any treaty or agreement that we have undertaken. We have broken no law."

Last week, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, said if India exploded a nuclear device Pakistan would respond in kind within weeks. Even before Monday's tests, right-wing Islamic parties were pressing Pakistan to conduct a nuclear test and put a nuclear bomb in its arsenal.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since the Asian subcontinent gained its independence in 1947 and came dangerously close to a fourth confrontation in 1990 over the disputed state of Kashmir.

The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based group of defense analysts, estimates Pakistan has enough stockpiled weapons-grade uranium for 25 nuclear bombs. India, according to the ISIS, has enough weapons-grade plutonium for 78.

Praful Bidwai, an independent weapons policy analyst who has urged India to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons, said the thermonuclear device showed India's program has progressed considerably since it tested a simpler fission device in 1974.

Bidwai said, "We have dropped the ambiguity completely. China and Pakistan will regard us as a full-fledged nuclear adversary and so we will have two nuclear arms races -- a small one with Pakistan and a big one with China."

India has long argued it had to keep up with Pakistan and, especially, China. All that was lacking was the resolve to act on its fears of being surrounded by the nuclear weapons of two countries with whom it has fought a total of four wars.


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, May 13, 1998-INT4-133

INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS CAUGHT U.S INTELLIGENCE OFF GUARD
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The Washington Times reported on Tuesday that U.S. intelligence agencies failed to detect any signs that India was preparing for the underground nuclear weapons blasts carried out on Monday and were embarrassed by New Delhi's extensive efforts to hide the tests.

According to the Times report written by CIA watcher Bill Gertz, the Indian government engaged in elaborate "denial and deception" of U.S. satellites and other spying in the weeks leading up to the three tests at the nuclear center near Pokhran, in the northwestern state of Rajasthan bordering Pakistan.

One U.S. administration official close to the CIA said, "We had zero warning."

On Tuesday, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet appointed a special team to examine why U.S. intelligence failed to discover preparations for the tests. Retired Admiral David Jeremiah, a highly respected intelligence specialist and former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will lead the team.

The intelligence failure has heightened concerns among U.S. officials about the ability to monitor cheating on a proposed international nuclear testing ban being considered for ratification by the Senate.

One Senate aide said, "There were three tests, and none were detected. If our satellites can't tell us what was happening, what does that say about their ability to verify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty?"

The primary means of detecting preparations for nuclear tests is electronic and photographic surveillance by the National Security Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office. Both agencies rely on spy satellites. John Pike, a technical intelligence specialist with the Federation of American Scientists, called the episode "the intelligence failure of the decade."

He said that the U.S. intelligence community should have known about the test before it occurred so that it could warn policy-makers, who could have taken diplomatic or other steps to avert it.

Another U.S. administration official said, "The Indians went out of their way to do it in a way that wouldn't be detected. We've been watching the site fairly carefully and on a fairly regular basis. They clearly did things in a way that tried to rush it through."

Nuclear testing normally is preceded by increased vehicle and personnel activity at sites. U.S. intelligence agencies learned of the blasts as the result of seismic monitoring.

CIA spokesman William Harlow, in a statement Tuesday, suggested the Indian government had engaged in what intelligence professionals call a "denial and deception" campaign to hide preparations for the nuclear tests. "It is apparent," Harlow said, "that the Indians went to some lengths to conceal their activities and intentions."

CIA officials declined to elaborate. But specialists in and out of the intelligence community said the spy agencies' apparent inability to learn of the tests before they were conducted was troubling -- whether the Indian government had sought to hide them or not.

"It's a pretty big damned deal," said former Army Gen. William Odom, who headed the National Security Agency, which conducts global eavesdropping operations. "There are lots of people who have got to be feeling pretty chagrined right now. This is not just a handful of people who screwed up, but a whole lot."

U.S. intelligence analysts believe the tests were carried out in part as the Indian response to Pakistan's 10 April test firing of 900-mile-range missiles.

Henry Sokolski, director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, warned, "We could be looking at a nuclear arms race in South Asia."

Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he planned to hold closed-door hearings into the intelligence lapse as early as Thursday. He said, "We want to know why this happened, how this happened, who was asleep, why they were asleep. Something's wrong here."

In related developments on Wednesday, India conducted two more underground nuclear tests. The tests were held at the same desert range southwest of New Delhi where the nuclear explosions were set off Monday. Few other details were immediately available.

In Germany, U.S. President Clinton ordered tough sanctions against India in retaliation for its underground nuclear tests. Clinton was to announce the sanctions after talks with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. He executed the necessary paperwork on Wednesday morning.

The sanctions include an end to U.S. assistance to India, a prohibition on the export of certain defense and technology material, an end to U.S. credit and credit guarantees to India, and U.S. opposition to lending by international financial institutions to India. While U.S. assistance is to be halted, there is an exception for food and humanitarian aid. Under U.S. law, sanctions are mandatory.


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, May 14, 1998-Vol. 4 - 134

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - The New York Times was reporting on Thursday that Pakistan is preparing for an underground nuclear test that could take place as early as Sunday. The newspaper says American officials cite clear signs from spy satellites, foreign agents and Pakistan's political leaders. Members of the U.S. Congress are joining the Clinton administration in appealing to Pakistan to resist the urge to conduct its own nuclear tests in the aftermath of those by India. U.S. policy-makers said Pakistan, which has fought three wars with India over the past 50 years, would be subject to the same scorn and sanctions as India if it goes ahead with its tests -- but would receive international acclaim by not acting in kind. Analysts doubt that Pakistan can be dissuaded from going ahead with the test.

***

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

PAKISTAN NUCLEAR WEAPON TEST COULD COME AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
By Jeremy Zakis, ERRI Asia and Pacific Desk

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - American diplomatic, intelligence and military officials believe Pakistan is preparing for an underground nuclear test that could take place as early as Sunday, the New York Times reported on Thursday. The report said Pakistan could test a nuclear warhead sometime next week at a desert site in response to the five tests that India has conducted since Monday.

U.S. spy satellites have detected military equipment and technical personnel preparing for a test at the Chagai Hills site, the Times said. Foreign intelligence agents in Pakistan reported also that the test could be conducted immediately, for maximum political effect, or later next week for a greater yield of technological data.

The United States has tried to persuade Pakistan not to follow India in conducting a nuclear test. In a telephone call to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, President Clinton asked him "to resist the temptation to respond to an irresponsible act," Karl Inderfurth, assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, reported.

"Sharif was not able to give that reassurance. He told the president that he was under tremendous pressure to respond," Inderfurth said. Pakistan is regarded as a threshold nuclear power that has not yet exploded a nuclear device. U.S. officials have been quoted as saying that Pakistan has been capable of conducting a nuclear test since the early 1990s and has enough fissile material to produce about a dozen warheads. The warheads, based on Chinese design, could be mounted on missiles.

If Pakistan does conduct a test, it will face the same sanctions that the United States has imposed on India including a ban on private American loans and the loss of military and economic aid.


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, May 18, 1998 Vol. 4 - 138

ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan has strongly denied that it had carried out a nuclear test to match arch-rival India, but said it could do so whenever it wished "within 12 to 26 hours." Reports of a Pakistani test, which the West wants desperately to avert, caused a nervous stir at a Group of Eight summit in Britain. President Clinton warned Cold War-style conflicts could destabilize South Asia. U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee leaders said Pakistan should be rewarded with a delivery of U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets if it showed restraint. Pakistan has already paid more than half a billion dollars for 28 F-16s that it bought it in the 1980s. But their delivery has been blocked by Congress to prevent Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons.

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N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan is now in the state of 24-hour readiness to conduct its own nuclear tests, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told the activists of his Pakistan Muslim League party in the city of Lahore on Sunday. "We do not feel scared in the face of India's nuclear threat because Pakistan has the same potential," the prime minister said. "Now we can prove our capability to conduct a nuclear test within 24 hours of making a decision to this effect," he said.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Strobe Talbott has failed to achieve his goal of stopping Pakistan preparing to perform a nuclear test, during his visit last week to Islamabad. After the visit, the Pakistani foreign minister confirmed that Pakistan's decision to test a nuclear device was a final one, even if Americans did not believe it. "When such a command will be issued is just a matter of time," Khan said. "Everything is ready, and all to be done is simply to push the button."


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Tuesday, May 19, 1998 Vol. 4 - 139

ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said on Tuesday that the West's mild response to India's nuclear tests has emboldened the Hindu-nationalist government there, which now is threatening to attack Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Neighboring India and Pakistan have fought two wars over the divided state of Kashmir, in 1948 and again in 1965, since the Asian subcontinent gained its independence in 1947. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting violence in its portion of Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state. ERRI COMMENT: We agree with Pakistan's assessment of Inida. The Indian government will become emboldened and trouble in the sub- continent can be expected as long as the BJP is in power.


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Saturday, May 23, 1998 Vol. 4 - 143

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION/ANTIPROLIFERATION
India-Pakistan Tensions Continue

By EmergencyNet News Team

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) -- Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was quoted by the Reuter's news service on Saturday as saying that any further Indian provocation would be met with "a resolute response." The Pakistani leader said Islamabad would not tolerate any further Indian provocation in the disputed Kashmir territory or involving India's recent nuclear tests. Sharif told a news conference yesterday that any eventual decision about Pakistan conducting its own nuclear test(s), "would be taken in our supreme national interest."

He gave no hint as to when any Pakistan nuclear bomb test might take place but said the threat of sanctions from the United States and Japan would not intimidate Islamabad into discontinuing their weapons efforts, should that be necessary. Sharif reminded reporters that Pakistan had shown "extraordinary restraint" in responding the detonation of Indian bombs. He concluded by warning that Indian tests were a direct threat to Pakistan's security and complained that Pakistan's need for security had been "largely ignored by the Western world."


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Sunday, May 24, 1998 Vol. 4 - 144

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION/WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Pakistan Offers Deal To Not Explode Nuclear Device

By: EmergencyNet News Team

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) -- In what is being viewed by at least one security expert as an attempt at "high-risk international hard-ball," the Pakistan's foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, said on Saturday that his country would not conduct nuclear tests if it is provided with "conventional weapons so advanced that they can take on the Indian conventional weapon system."

The statement is seen as an attempt by Pakistan to obtain advanced weapons systems from the Unbited States and her allies in exchange for not conducting feared nuclear tests and causing escalating tensions in the region. Khan said that the request was an attempt to "restore military and strategic balance with India," which conducted its own nuclear tests earlier this month.

Given recent border clashes in the Kashmir region and the on-going and seemingly worsening rhetoric between India and Pakistan, ERRI analysts say that they fear that the conflict could result in open conflict, unless a diplomatic solution is found and implemented in the near future.


ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, May 25, 1998 Memorial Day Vol. 4 - 145

NEW DELHI (EmergencyNet News) - Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India Dr. Chidambaram told Indian radio on Sunday: "The technology developed by Indian scientists allows them to produce a 200-kiloton nuclear bomb."


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, May 27, 1998 Vol. 4 - 147

LEAD FOCUS

U.S. INTELLIGENCE SAYS PAKISTAN NUCLEAR TEST COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - A U.S. intelligence official says that in the past several days, spy satellites have captured Pakistani military teams completing preparations for a nuclear weapons test in a remote western corner of the South Asian nation. U.S. intelligence this week has reportedly alerted policy-makers about Pakistan's progress, warning that the actual tests could occur at any time.

One unnamed intelligence official said the level of activity suggests that the Pakistanis "do indeed plan to conduct a test."

The U.S. State Department continues to say that it is not aware that the Pakistanis have made a final decision on whether or not to carry out a test.

As preparations for the test proceeded, Indian and Pakistani troops reportedly exchanged shell, artillery and mortar fire on Tuesday along the disputed Kashmiri border, where tension has been high since India's nuclear tests. There were no immediate reports of casualties in the fighting, the heaviest in recent days. Indian defense sources said India was building up its forces in Kashmir, and Pakistan said it was arming civilians along the border.

U.S. spy satellites have been monitoring Pakistani activity at the Chagai Hills test site in western Pakistan. In particular, they have noted tunneling activity that typically precedes an underground test, as well as the laying of explosive monitoring equipment and the setting up of observation and measuring posts.

U.S. intelligence is still stinging from criticism that it failed to provide advance warning of the Indian tests. That criticism has led to an intense focus on India and Pakistan since then. Intelligence officials for days have been reporting on the progress by Pakistan in readying its nuclear test site.

Indian and Pakistani leaders have recently been trading increasingly tough words in recent days. India's ruling Hindu nationalist party declared the government's decision to test as a necessary act of self-defense. Pakistani officials have threatened to respond with nuclear tests of their own and have loudly declared that their medium-range missiles are capable of devastating targets in India.


Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, May 28, 1998 Vol. 4 - 148

LEAD FOCUS

PAKISTAN CARRIES OUT ITS NUCLEAR TEST
From the ERRI Watch Center

ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Just two weeks after Indian government undertook its own nuclear tests, Pakistan exploded two nuclear devices in a remote western region on Thursday. In a statement that followed the testing, Pakistan said it was ready to adapt a nuclear warhead to its newly tested long range Ghauri missile.

A later statement from Pakistan's Prime Minister said that five nuclear devices, the same number that India had exploded, had been detonated. Independent confirmation of the claim has not been received as of yet.

The Pakistani statement said: "The long-range Ghauri missile is already being capped with the nuclear warheads to give a befitting reply to any misadventure by the enemy."

The enemy being mentioned in the statement is, of course, India. Pakistan tested the Ghauri missile on 6 April. The missile is capable of traveling 900 miles and hitting most targets in India.

Earlier on Thursday, Pakistan said it had received credible information of an Indian plan to attack its nuclear sites and threatened that such an act would be met by "swift and massive retaliation." India said that Pakistan's fears had no basis.

India's ambassador was summoned to the foreign ministry at 0100 hours local time to receive a warning about any preemptive strike on Pakistan's nuclear facilities. Also notified were the United States and four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

In a statement, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said: "In the wake of the Indian nuclear tests, we have been receiving information of the possibility of attacks on our nuclear installations. The purpose behind this action would be to prevent us from taking an appropriate decision in our supreme national interest. Last night we received credible information that an attack was to be mounted before dawn. We were fully prepared to meet any eventuality in our defense. Immediate messages were transmitted to Washington and other permanent members of the (U.N.) Security Council."

Diplomats said that U.S. officials had spoken to Indian envoys and felt the information of an imminent attack had no validity.

Pakistan's military confirmed its troops were on alert at nuclear installations around the country. Late Wednesday, U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and army helicopters were on patrol over the Kahuta nuclear research station, located 25 miles east of Islamabad. Kahuta is where it is believed Pakistan conducted the bulk of its nuclear research and uranium enrichment program.

Other major nuclear sites include the Pakistan Institute of Science and Technology, 15 miles east of Islamabad, and Golra, believed to be an extension of the Kahuta plant, which is 30 miles west of the capital. The Khushab nuclear reactor, about 120 miles northeast of Islamabad in Punjab province, is believed to produce enough plutonium to manufacture 1-2 nuclear weapons annually.


(c) All reports Copyrighted, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution/Republication without permission is prohibited by law.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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