Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Thursday, May 12, 1998-INT4-132
INDIA TESTS THREE NUCLEAR WEAPONSJasjit Singh, director of the New Delhi's independent Institute for Defense Studies and
Analyses, accused the United States of refusing to take India's fears of China and
Pakistan seriously. He cited U.S. willingness to sell nuclear equipment to China. India
accuses China of supplying nuclear weapons technology and ballistic missiles to Pakistan
even after signing the nuclear nonproliferation treaty in 1992.
India has said it is going nuclear because of its sense of being ignored and because of an
argument that the nuclear powers want to keep their military advantage and deny it to
others.
Singh has called on the government to develop its delivery system as part of a credible
nuclear defense. He said it could take another ten years for India to perfect an arsenal
of ballistic missiles capable of reaching major targets in China.
A United Nations statement noted that India had not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty that was adopted in September 1996 by the U.N. General Assembly. The treaty, which
has not taken force, would ban all nuclear tests. It was signed by all five nations that
acknowledge holding nuclear weapons -- the United States, Britain, France, China and
Russia.
Condemnation of India came swift on Tuesday. Japan, Australia and New Zealand all
condemned India's tests. All three said they had or planned to recall their ambassadors --
the strongest diplomatic protest short of cutting off relations.
Despite the angry worldwide reactions, Indian officials were clearly in a celebratory
mood. During an appearance Monday on CNN-International's "Q and A" program,
India's ambassador to the United States, Naresh Chandra, said the tests did not signal an
attempt to develop nuclear weapons on a large scale.
Chandra said, "It became absolutely necessary for India to re-establish its
capability and update that capability. These tests do not involve any infringement of any
treaty or agreement that we have undertaken. We have broken no law."
Last week, Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, said if India exploded a
nuclear device Pakistan would respond in kind within weeks. Even before Monday's tests,
right-wing Islamic parties were pressing Pakistan to conduct a nuclear test and put a
nuclear bomb in its arsenal.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since the Asian subcontinent gained its
independence in 1947 and came dangerously close to a fourth confrontation in 1990 over the
disputed state of Kashmir.
The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based group of
defense analysts, estimates Pakistan has enough stockpiled weapons-grade uranium for 25
nuclear bombs. India, according to the ISIS, has enough weapons-grade plutonium for 78.
Praful Bidwai, an independent weapons policy analyst who has urged India to abandon its
pursuit of nuclear weapons, said the thermonuclear device showed India's program has
progressed considerably since it tested a simpler fission device in 1974.
Bidwai said, "We have dropped the ambiguity completely. China and Pakistan will
regard us as a full-fledged nuclear adversary and so we will have two nuclear arms races
-- a small one with Pakistan and a big one with China."
India has long argued it had to keep up with Pakistan and, especially, China. All that was
lacking was the resolve to act on its fears of being surrounded by the nuclear weapons of
two countries with whom it has fought a total of four wars.
***
N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA
ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan has strongly denied that it had carried out a nuclear test to match arch-rival India, but said it could do so whenever it wished "within 12 to 26 hours." Reports of a Pakistani test, which the West wants desperately to avert, caused a nervous stir at a Group of Eight summit in Britain. President Clinton warned Cold War-style conflicts could destabilize South Asia. U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee leaders said Pakistan should be rewarded with a delivery of U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets if it showed restraint. Pakistan has already paid more than half a billion dollars for 28 F-16s that it bought it in the 1980s. But their delivery has been blocked by Congress to prevent Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons.
***
N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA
ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan is now in the state of 24-hour readiness to conduct its own nuclear tests, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told the activists of his Pakistan Muslim League party in the city of Lahore on Sunday. "We do not feel scared in the face of India's nuclear threat because Pakistan has the same potential," the prime minister said. "Now we can prove our capability to conduct a nuclear test within 24 hours of making a decision to this effect," he said.
U.S. Undersecretary of State Strobe Talbott has failed to achieve his goal of stopping Pakistan preparing to perform a nuclear test, during his visit last week to Islamabad. After the visit, the Pakistani foreign minister confirmed that Pakistan's decision to test a nuclear device was a final one, even if Americans did not believe it. "When such a command will be issued is just a matter of time," Khan said. "Everything is ready, and all to be done is simply to push the button."
ISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said on Tuesday that the West's mild response to India's nuclear tests has emboldened the Hindu-nationalist government there, which now is threatening to attack Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Neighboring India and Pakistan have fought two wars over the divided state of Kashmir, in 1948 and again in 1965, since the Asian subcontinent gained its independence in 1947. India accuses Pakistan of fomenting violence in its portion of Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state. ERRI COMMENT: We agree with Pakistan's assessment of Inida. The Indian government will become emboldened and trouble in the sub- continent can be expected as long as the BJP is in power.
By EmergencyNet News Team
ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) -- Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was quoted by the Reuter's news service on Saturday as saying that any further Indian provocation would be met with "a resolute response." The Pakistani leader said Islamabad would not tolerate any further Indian provocation in the disputed Kashmir territory or involving India's recent nuclear tests. Sharif told a news conference yesterday that any eventual decision about Pakistan conducting its own nuclear test(s), "would be taken in our supreme national interest."
He gave no hint as to when any Pakistan nuclear bomb test might take place but said the threat of sanctions from the United States and Japan would not intimidate Islamabad into discontinuing their weapons efforts, should that be necessary. Sharif reminded reporters that Pakistan had shown "extraordinary restraint" in responding the detonation of Indian bombs. He concluded by warning that Indian tests were a direct threat to Pakistan's security and complained that Pakistan's need for security had been "largely ignored by the Western world."
By: EmergencyNet News Team
ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) -- In what is being viewed by at least one security expert as an attempt at "high-risk international hard-ball," the Pakistan's foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, said on Saturday that his country would not conduct nuclear tests if it is provided with "conventional weapons so advanced that they can take on the Indian conventional weapon system."
The statement is seen as an attempt by Pakistan to obtain advanced weapons systems from the Unbited States and her allies in exchange for not conducting feared nuclear tests and causing escalating tensions in the region. Khan said that the request was an attempt to "restore military and strategic balance with India," which conducted its own nuclear tests earlier this month.
Given recent border clashes in the Kashmir region and the on-going and seemingly worsening rhetoric between India and Pakistan, ERRI analysts say that they fear that the conflict could result in open conflict, unless a diplomatic solution is found and implemented in the near future.
NEW DELHI (EmergencyNet News) - Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India Dr. Chidambaram told Indian radio on Sunday: "The technology developed by Indian scientists allows them to produce a 200-kiloton nuclear bomb."
LEAD FOCUS
U.S. INTELLIGENCE SAYS PAKISTAN NUCLEAR TEST COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIMEWASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - A U.S. intelligence official says that in the past several days, spy satellites have captured Pakistani military teams completing preparations for a nuclear weapons test in a remote western corner of the South Asian nation. U.S. intelligence this week has reportedly alerted policy-makers about Pakistan's progress, warning that the actual tests could occur at any time.
One unnamed intelligence official said the level of activity suggests that the Pakistanis "do indeed plan to conduct a test."
The U.S. State Department continues to say that it is not aware that the Pakistanis have made a final decision on whether or not to carry out a test.
As preparations for the test proceeded, Indian and Pakistani troops reportedly exchanged shell, artillery and mortar fire on Tuesday along the disputed Kashmiri border, where tension has been high since India's nuclear tests. There were no immediate reports of casualties in the fighting, the heaviest in recent days. Indian defense sources said India was building up its forces in Kashmir, and Pakistan said it was arming civilians along the border.
U.S. spy satellites have been monitoring Pakistani activity at the Chagai Hills test site in western Pakistan. In particular, they have noted tunneling activity that typically precedes an underground test, as well as the laying of explosive monitoring equipment and the setting up of observation and measuring posts.
U.S. intelligence is still stinging from criticism that it failed to provide advance warning of the Indian tests. That criticism has led to an intense focus on India and Pakistan since then. Intelligence officials for days have been reporting on the progress by Pakistan in readying its nuclear test site.
Indian and Pakistani leaders have recently been trading increasingly tough words in recent days. India's ruling Hindu nationalist party declared the government's decision to test as a necessary act of self-defense. Pakistani officials have threatened to respond with nuclear tests of their own and have loudly declared that their medium-range missiles are capable of devastating targets in India.
LEAD FOCUS
PAKISTAN CARRIES OUT ITS NUCLEAR TESTISLAMABAD (EmergencyNet News) - Just two weeks after Indian government undertook its own nuclear tests, Pakistan exploded two nuclear devices in a remote western region on Thursday. In a statement that followed the testing, Pakistan said it was ready to adapt a nuclear warhead to its newly tested long range Ghauri missile.
A later statement from Pakistan's Prime Minister said that five nuclear devices, the same number that India had exploded, had been detonated. Independent confirmation of the claim has not been received as of yet.
The Pakistani statement said: "The long-range Ghauri missile is already being capped with the nuclear warheads to give a befitting reply to any misadventure by the enemy."
The enemy being mentioned in the statement is, of course, India. Pakistan tested the Ghauri missile on 6 April. The missile is capable of traveling 900 miles and hitting most targets in India.
Earlier on Thursday, Pakistan said it had received credible information of an Indian plan to attack its nuclear sites and threatened that such an act would be met by "swift and massive retaliation." India said that Pakistan's fears had no basis.
India's ambassador was summoned to the foreign ministry at 0100 hours local time to receive a warning about any preemptive strike on Pakistan's nuclear facilities. Also notified were the United States and four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
In a statement, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said: "In the wake of the Indian nuclear tests, we have been receiving information of the possibility of attacks on our nuclear installations. The purpose behind this action would be to prevent us from taking an appropriate decision in our supreme national interest. Last night we received credible information that an attack was to be mounted before dawn. We were fully prepared to meet any eventuality in our defense. Immediate messages were transmitted to Washington and other permanent members of the (U.N.) Security Council."
Diplomats said that U.S. officials had spoken to Indian envoys and felt the information of an imminent attack had no validity.
Pakistan's military confirmed its troops were on alert at nuclear installations around the country. Late Wednesday, U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and army helicopters were on patrol over the Kahuta nuclear research station, located 25 miles east of Islamabad. Kahuta is where it is believed Pakistan conducted the bulk of its nuclear research and uranium enrichment program.
Other major nuclear sites include the Pakistan Institute of Science and Technology, 15 miles east of Islamabad, and Golra, believed to be an extension of the Kahuta plant, which is 30 miles west of the capital. The Khushab nuclear reactor, about 120 miles northeast of Islamabad in Punjab province, is believed to produce enough plutonium to manufacture 1-2 nuclear weapons annually.
(c) All reports Copyrighted, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution/Republication without permission is prohibited by law.
The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.
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