**LEAD STORY**
A furious debate has been raging among intelligence, military, and national security experts. Will North Korea attempt to militarily invade South Korea? If so, how will they try to do it? The clear official view expressed by the U.S. administration is that North Korea will not attempt a suicidal attack against the South. On the other hand, there are several experts and analysts that say the North will attack ... in the near future.
South Korean forces are taking the threat seriously. In March, they went on their highest state of alert in recent memory. Every evening soldiers rake the beaches along the South Korean shoreline. This was not to just keep the beaches clean, but an effort to see if there were any infilitrators entering the country in the middle of the night. Footprints in the sand could be a warning of a breakout of hostilities.
There is one thing that all of the experts agree upon. And, that is that no one really knows what is going on in North Korea. Just about all of the analysts can provide justification for why North Korea should not to invade, but it's not certain if North Korea, itself, is even aware of the reasoning. The N. Korean government and its motivations remain shrouded in a cloud of mystery, behind of DMZ that has existed for four decades.
There are many possible explanations of why the North Koreans may launch an invasion of the South. What is not certain is which of these reasons may be the correct one. What is known is that the economy in the North is in ruin. Floods have ruined crops and agriculture in general is in a dismal state. Food and other essentials may be in short supply. Economic isolation of N. Korea by the West has negatively impacted the economy and their exports are often restricted. Aside from trade with other rogue nations like Iran, Iraq, and Libya, N. Korea has few legitimate trading partners. Some experts think that the North Koreans might launch an attack in a desperate gamble to avoid economic collapse. That gamble may lead to negotiations with the U.S. that could, in the end, lead to a formalized peace treaty and normalized political and trade relations. But if that's the end goal ... wouldn't it be easier to go another route other than war?
General Gary E. Luck, the commander of U.S. forces in South Korea told Congress in March, "We worry that in a very short period, this country will either collapse or take aggressive actions against the South in a desperate attempt to divert attention from its internal situation. It is entirely possible that the leadership in Pyongyang is not, or will not remain, cohesive enough to make rational decisions."
Invasion Methods
Even though there is a lot of disagreement about whether or not the North Koreans will invade -- there is a lot of agreement about how they would do it.
The first step, in all probability, will be that the North Korean Army would send its special forces into many areas of the South. Military experts say that many of these SOF units would infilitrate far from the front lines. The 80,000-strong force would arrive via boats, submarines, hovercraft and light planes. This is the reason why the South Koreans rake their beaches every night.
The North Korean special forces would attack South Korean and U.S. command posts, communications centers, and supply depots. They would try to destroy and damage military aircraft and just create general chaos in the South. These special forces units, as in most armies, comprise of some of the best troops in the North Korean Army.
While the special forces were launching their attacks, it is expected that North Korean artillery and short-range missiles would open up. The artillery would be targeted against key South Korean and U.S. forces and the capital of Seoul, which is located only 30 miles south of the border.
Next, masses of North Korean tanks and trucks would pour across the border. Of course the South Koreans have always expected this and have constructed very intricate defenses for this eventuality. Anti-tank ditches, concrete walls and other barriers would force the North Korean tanks into narrow "killing zones" where the defenders of the South would focus their firepower.
But, the North Koreans also know about these defenses and have figured out other ways to get their troops across the border. Most likely, the North Koreans would use underground tunnels to move their troops into the South. The South Koreans have discovered four of these tunnels, one was as deep as 450 feet below the surface. Even though four of the tunnels have been discovered, it is believed that the North Koreans may have 20 more such tunnels at their disposal. These tunnels are very important to the overall invasion plan. Some experts believe that the four discovered tunnels were capable of allowing 10,000 troops per hour to enter South Korea.
Other defenses that the South Koreans have established may include explosives already built into strategic sections of bridges and roads. Built above key roads are very large rock fields that will can be explosively triggered, sending giant boulders to block roads necessary for travel to the South.
The North Koreans have also built formidable river crossing units, as water does block any number of access routes into the South. Intelligence sources have indicated that the North has built 2,300 pre-fabricated sections of bridge and has more than 600 amphibious vehicles at its disposal. The S. Koreans can be expected to use the natural terrain to maximum advantage in their defense.
Military experts say that the North Koreans would try a blitzkrieg-type attack to capture the capital of Seoul. They would try very hard to accomplish their military objectives before United States reinforcements can arrive from Japan, the U.S. and Europe. Many experts in contact with ERRI say that a missile attack(s) on U.S. air bases and forces in Japan could be expected. It is believed that North Korea has a few nuclear weapons, but it is not certain how they might be delivered. What is more expected is a chemical weapons attack. North Korea reportedly has several tons of chemical weapons in their stockpile.
One U.S. military expert, who fully expects that the North will invade the South, said, "I think you would probably see the first major use of chemical agents since World War I. If they were to decide to depopulate Seoul before taking it, they could probably do it with very little defense on our part." At least one military expert says that "Tokyo-style" subway poison gas attacks and other sabotage efforts could proceed an actual assault on the South.
Just about all of the military experts interviewed said that the United States and South Korea could quickly establish air and naval superiority over the North. While it might take some time to then decimate ground units, superior allied firepower and technology practically assures the eventuality. In the end, North Korea would be destroyed.
The scenario outlined above is not much different than what happened in 1950, when the Korean War broke out. One difference today is that the South Korean military is no longer a pushover, and the South Koreans are backed by about 35,000 U.S. troops. Many more allied troops and planes are stationed only a short distance away in Japan. Another difference could be, and not all analysts agree with this assessment, that China would not come to the aid of the North Koreans, as they did during the Korean War. Relations between North Korea and China are not described as overly cordial at the present time.
Again, many experts say that the North will not invade because it would be "suicide" for them. But, other experts say that the North may think that the risk is worth it. One national security analyst in the U.S., who believes that the North will invade the South, said, "The problem is not that North Korea can defeat us, but that they think they can." In their self-imposed isolation, the N. Koreans may be suffering the delusion that they can actually win a conventional war against S. Korea and the Unted States.
Colonel John Reitz, the spokesman for U.S. military forces in South Korea, said, "The situation for the regime in North Korea is not sustainable, because their economy and their agriculture are continuing to get worse and worse and then they had those horrible floods last summer. The end for that regime is in sight. We just don't know when."
Last fall, the North Koreans repositioned heavy artillery and aircraft closer to the border. One group of North Korean bombers can reach Seoul in approximately six minutes. That doesn't allow much warning. On the other hand, North Korean military exercises have been at a low levels recently. U.S. Intelligence says that it has not noticed any unusual troop movements.
On Thursday, in Singapore, General John Shalikashvili, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a news conference that the tension on the Korean peninsula was the greatest security concern currently in Asia. The General said, "That's probably the security issue of most concern to us. Certainly, Korea is an issue that requires careful watching because of those massive conventional forces that are in such close proximity to each other and the conditions of the economy that we read about in North Korea. It is a bothersome issue that we need to watch, without being alarmist about it."
Will the North invade the South? Most experts and analysts tell ERRI that it will probably happen at some point in time. They say that the N. Koreans may believe that they have few other logical alternatives. If it does happen, they predict that it won't as easy as the 1991 Gulf War. They say it will be a difficult, demanding, and bloody conflict. The bodies, on both sides, will be likely to pile up. Most professional warriors tell ENN that they pray that there is diplomatic resolution to the increasing tensions in Korea, but that they will be prepared for a military solution, should that become necessary.
(c) EmergencyNet News Service, 1996, All Rights Reserved.