North Korea; Preparing For War??

ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services Monday, October 20, 1997 Vol. 3 - 293

NORTH KOREA - PREPARING FOR WAR?
By: Jeremy Zakis, EmergencyNet News Asia and Pacific Newsdesk and Ronald Lewis, Chief Military and Aviation Analyst, THE INTELLIGYST GROUP

Military and civilian analysts seem at odds as to what to expect in the future from North Korea; Military Intelligence argues that the Pyongyang regime is still bent on reunification of the Korean Peninsula by force, creating an entirely communist country, while their civilian counterparts and the CIA believe the North's top priority is self-preservation of the existing state. Something that those analysts believe North Korea knows will be destroyed in open warfare.

The landmine ban agreements that were recently drafted are being signed by most countries around the world, except the US, which wants to keep the deadly devices in the 2-mile-wide DMZ between North and South Korea. This is the only thing, some military analysts believe is keeping the North from launching a full-scale ground-offensive.

Today's North Korea is a struggling country suffering from famine and economic frustration which is contributing to the possible collapse of its Communist regime. High-level political and sporadic, lower-level military defections from the country are not an uncommon occurrence and often provide direct evidence of deep instability within the government. In late August, two North Korean diplomats defected shortly before the four-way peace talks between the United States, North Korea, South Korea and China broke down.

These negotiations broke down in Sep 97 when the US tried to persuade the North to stop selling medium-range ballistic missiles with potential nuclear capability, to Iran and Syria, in return for reduced economic sanctions.

Shortly before the breakdown of the four-way talks, details of the US-Japan security treaty were also released, signaling a change in Japan's military stance in Asia and giving the US more access to Japanese military bases. China, a strong ally of North Korea, was openly upset by the US-Japan defense agreement and remains wary of US actions in the region. North Korea also displayed a mild opposition to the agreement. It's entirely possible that the US-Japan accords may have contributed to the peace talk breakdown.

Shortly after the talks failed, a military reconnaissance satellite confirmed deployment of equipment necessary to launch the No-Dong intermediate-range ballistic missile in the Northern portion of North Korea. The No-Dong isn't fully operational and is rumored to be highly inaccurate, but it's believed to have a range of 600 miles, threatening a large portion of Japan, including its capital, Tokyo.

No actual missiles were deployed on the launchers but Navy Adm. Joseph Prueher, commander of U.S. forces in Asia and Pacific said that, "If they (No-Dongs) were deployed, they would be a potential threat to our forces in South Korea, as well as to other nations adjacent to the area."

The No-Dong was test-fired in 1993 and since then, no additional tests are known to have taken place.

This can mean only one of two things: a) The North Korean government is ready and willing to launch, or, b) they're merely showing off technology to intimidate the US and its allies, Japan and South Korea into providing more aid and other negotiating concessions.

Although we would like to believe that the latter is the case, we shouldn't be lured into a false sense of security given the nature of the North Korean military. An invasion of the South is likely to take place again and it's interesting to note that since the Korean War in the 1950's, not much has changed diplomatically.

During the War, the former Soviet Union supplied Mig-15s, regarded as among the most advanced aircraft of the time, to the North Koreans. The North's other strong ally, China, supplied over half of North Korea's air force of 1400 aircraft, flying from bases within China. For a time, North Korea enjoyed air supremacy in the region. Had it not been for the accelerated deployment of the American F-86 Sabre, North Korea's MiG-15s may well have kept control of the air and posed serious problems for allied forces.

Today, China remains an ally while Syria and Iran, two US-declared "rogue" states, have replaced the former Soviet Union. Both China and North Korea are involved in selling a variety of anti-ship and surface-to-surface missiles to their Middle Eastern allies, and have been actively involved in the various Scud missile development programs of their clients, setting up assembly lines in Iran, Syria, Libya and Egypt.

It seems that medium-range missiles are today's dominant substitute for the fighters and light bombers North Korea possessed in the late 40's, early 50's.

It's known that the North Koreans have Scud missiles and they have threatened to use them before, in 1993, when North Korea massed 70% of its forces on the DMZ with South Korea. Some analysts have theorized that the only reason an attack on Seoul didn't occur at that time was because then-leader Kim Il Sung became ill and subsequently died the following year.

Before he died, however, the elder Kim pledged that North and South Korea would reunify -- by force -- before his birthday in 1995 -- a pledge he made often before and one which his son, the current leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-Il, may wish to fulfill in his honor.

Everything the younger Kim has done since his father's death has bestowed respect upon his father's memory, which is deeply revered by the North Korean populace. If he feels that an attack on the South would honor his father -- and, more importantly, would be willingly carried out by his people -- such a move could come at virtually any time.

Kim Jong-il, son and heir-apparent of Kim Il Sung, has only now - three years after his father's death -- formally taken control of the country, and he is vocal in advocating reunification of the peninsula. Before he became leader, the junior Kim was rumored to be less charismatic than his father and reportedly failed to gain the support of the military.

Once Kim was in power, this turned the complete opposite, with the military pledging their support to him.

The military therefore does not see the country as being destroyed through Kim's mismanagement and may support a violent reunification with the South. Kim's policies remain unclear since his formal induction as ruler on September 8 of this year, as many of his statements contradict what allied analysts believed would happen.

In a public statement issued by Kim Jong-Il, as recently as September 8, he said: "However long and difficult the road of our revolution pioneered and led by the Great Leader Comrade Kim Il-Sung may be, we must staunchly keep to this road."

South Korean military analysts disagree however, that the younger Kim is actually following his father's footsteps. Kim has already broken his father's strict economic self-reliance policy, allowing foreign food aid and other assistance into the country, and analysts predict that this is the start of a trend. They predict we will see more changes from the repressive, isolationist doctrine that left the country in economic shambles.

Most disturbing, however, is that North Korea constantly focuses on the military although its economy can't properly support it, and the entire civilian population has suffered tremendously from food shortages. Last week, the US stopped sending food aid until a broader system of monitoring food aid was introduced.

One explanation for this may be related to the recent report of a US food label being discovered aboard the North Korean spy submarine that ran aground August 96. The label, found by US Naval officers, had the words "Food for relief, in the name of Christ," and "Mennonite Churches of Va." clearly printed on it. Charity workers had sent that food in good faith to the starving people of North Korea, but their charity had been abused by the country's leaders who view the military as more important.

Recent reports from North Korea indicate that famine is slowly beginning to fade, and food aid is making a difference which, in turn, means that the threat of the North lashing out violently against the South, in desperation, is decreasing. But North Korea remains very unpredictable. Next year's crops are uncertain and the North Koreans may find themselves in the same position again -- or worse. It's possible that the North Korean leadership may decide to strike while the army is still in relatively good shape, which means a violent reunification of the peninsula, within the next few months, is at risk of occurring.

As the situation heats up, with the abduction of two South Korean farmers last Friday morning from the DMZ by North Korean soldiers being the latest in the tense stand-off, history seems destined to repeat itself.

On June 25, 1950, North Korea launched its offensive at 4 AM under a heavy downpour of rain. The United States assumed that its new nuclear strike force of bombers and its long-ranging new supercarriers would put an end to land wars. As a result, it did not advocate that the South Koreans build up their forces and train for a war. The South Korean army, such as it was in 1950, did not have a single tank. North Korea was able to overwhelm the combined South Korean troops and their American advisors, pushing them all of the way back to the Pusan Perimeter before American airpower in Japan and on carriers provided cover for the few divisions of soldiers and Marines that could be scraped together and funneled into the fray. In September 1950, Gen. MacArthur's brilliant stroke at Inchon broke the North Korean offensive.

Today, some things are very different while others are alarmingly similar. For one, the US has developed a renewed attitude that hi-tech warfare, airpower and carrier-based seapower will be able to handle any crisis. South Korea has certainly more tanks, more planes and more integrated defenses than it did in 1950, but the terrain and climate of the Korean peninsula remain unchanged and as unforgiving as ever. North Korea also has more tanks, more planes and more artillery than it did in 1950, and its generals know that they will be bottle-necked at the chokepoints on the main roads. In order to get around those obstacles, the North Koreans would like to wait for a good, sustained freeze to solidify the rivers, marshes and rice paddies, so that their armor and mechanized infantry could cross at multiple points and thus avoid the killing fields of the chokepoints.

The weather, as always, is typically nasty in the winter, with low cloud cover, freezing rain and snow. In 1950, this weather grounded allied and enemy aircraft alike, preventing close air support of troops on the ground. Today, allied aircraft can fly in heavy weather and at night, but this is typically useful only against fixed sites or large targets which can be seen through the fog, haze, snow and cloud cover. Small groups of troops and light vehicles would be extremely difficult to detect and target effectively. The North knows this. Therefore, if they have any intention of striking a blow for violent reunification of the two Koreas, it is most likely that they will do so during the winter. The on-again, off-again "peace talks" may be nothing more than a stalling tactic until the first good, hard freeze hits Korea. It may then turn into a very hot winter.

ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, October 22, 1997 Vol. 3 - 295

MORE ON POSSIBLE NORTH KOREAN WAR PLANS ...
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) -- A North Korean defector said on Tuesday that the regime in Pyongyang believes that the U.S. would abandon the Korean Peninsula in less than a month if an attack on the south could inflict at least 20,000 U.S. casualties.

Speaking to a congressional panel, Choi Joo-Hwai, a former colonel in the Korean People's Army who defected to the South in 1995, said that North Korea's leaders do not view U.S. superior military strength as an assurance the South would win in a war.

Through an interpreter, Choi said, "If a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the North's main target will be the U.S. forces based in the South and in Japan. That is the reason that the North has been working furiously on its missile programs. Kim Jong Il believes that if North Korea creates more than 20,000 American casualties in the region, the U.S. would roll back and North Korea will win the war."

Currently, there are about 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea and an additional 45,000 in Japan. The United States is committed to defending South Korea against the communist North.

In 1995, U.S. Army General Gary Luck, then the commander of U.S. forces in Korea, said that estimates of likely wartime casualties in Korea vary widely. Some estimates said that the North could inflict 80,000 to 100,000 U.S. casulaties and a million overall on both sides.

Choi said that Kim Jong Il believes his forces would prevail over the South if U.S. reinforcements could be held at bay for 20 to 30 days. Central to this strategy is the North's development of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Japan and Okinawa.

Choi testified before the international security subcommittee of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, along with Ko Young-Hwan, a former North Korean Foreign Ministry official who defected in the Congo in 1991.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Corporate Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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