This page is a salute to the men and women of all of our nation's armed services. On it we will feature on-going military operations, as well as background articles, links and reference information.

• August, 2008 - "Editorial/Opinion/Commentary: The Aftermath of the Russian Incursion Into Georgia, " Indicator: The Reemergence of the The Russian Bear, Editorial Comment By C. L. Staten, ERRI CEO and Sr. National Security Analyst, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2008/russia_georgia_aug2008.htm
   

• Jan. 8, 2008 -US Releases Dramatic Video of Iran Boat Incident
  Tape Shows Iranian Boats Surrounding U.S. War Ships, Ignoring Order to Leave
  http://www.emergency.com/archive/cat_military.htm

• Friday, 23 March 2007, 16:51 GMT -- 15 British Sailors and Marines Reported Captured by Iran, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/archive/03-01-2007_03-31-2007.htm
   
• 11 January, 2007, INT13-011a -- Supplement to the EmergencyNet News Daily Intelligence Report, The President's Address: Counterinsurgency in Iraq/Countering Iran;
  ²ERRI CEO's Comments on "Perceptions" and the War in Iraq, By Paul Anderson, Correspondent
  Can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2007/iraq_counter-insurgency_perceptions.htm
   
• 30 July 2006 -- ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East, by C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2006/Hezbollah_israel_crisis07-30-06.htm
   
• Sunday, April 16, 2006, Vol. 12, No. 106 -- Analysis on the Iranian Nuclear Crisis, by C. L. Staten, ERRI, Opinion/Editorial/Commentary, on the internet at: http://www.emergency.com/2006/iran_nuke_crisis06.htm
   
• 2006 -- Emerging China; The Emerging Threat? (Friend or Peer Competitor...), conference speech/analysis by the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI), can be found on the internet at: http://www.emergency.com/2006/emerging_china_flash.htm
   
• 10 Feb 2005
  
  Insurgency: Modern Warfare
  Evolves into a Fourth Generation (4GW)
  by Thomas X. Hammes

Fourth-generation warfare, which is now playing out in Iraq and Afghanistan, is a modern form of insurgency. Its practitioners seek to convince enemy political leaders that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly for the perceived benefit. The fundamental precept is that superior political will, when properly employed, can defeat greater economic and military power.

Because it is organized to ensure political rather than military success, this type of warfare is difficult to defeat.

-- Strategically, fourth-generation warfare remains focused on changing the minds of decision makers.

-- Politically, it involves transnational, national, and sub-national organizations and networks.

-- Operationally, it uses different messages for different audiences, all of which focus on breaking an opponent’s political will.

-- Tactically, it utilizes materials present in the society under attack— to include industrial chemicals, liquefied natural gas, or fertilizers.

Although these modern insurgencies are the only type of war that the United States has lost (Vietnam, Lebanon, and Somalia), they can be overcome—witness Malaya (1950s), Oman (1970s), and El Salvador (1980s).

Winning, however, requires coherent, patient action that encompasses the full range of political, economic, social, and military activities.

The United States cannot force its opponents to fight the short, high technology wars it easily dominates. Instead, the Nation must learn to fight fourth-generation wars anew. 

Read the whole paper, click here to access No. 214, January 2005, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF214/SF214.pdf  (requires Adobe .pdf reader/plug-in to review)

• 01 Feb 2005

  Proposal For Increase in Veteran Death Benefits Presented

  WASHINGTON, DC: President Bush will propose that families of U.S. troops killed in Iraq, Afghanistan and war zones of the future receive an extra $250,000 in government payments.
  
  The plan, which includes retroactive payments to the spouses or surviving relatives of the more than 1,500 who have died in Iraq and Afghanistan since October 2001, will be part of the 2006 budget proposal submitted to Congress next week, the Pentagon's personnel chief said.
  
  A tax-free "death gratuity," now $12,420, would grow to $100,000. The government would also pay for $150,000 in life insurance for troops. Veterans groups and many in Congress have been pushing for such increases.
  
  "We think the nation ought to make a larger one-time payment, quite apart from insurance, should you be killed in a combat area of operations," David Chu, the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, said in an interview in his Pentagon office.
  
  "We can never in any program give someone back their loved one," he added. "There is nothing we can do about the hurt, to make it go away. But we can make your circumstances reasonable, in terms of finances."  Chu was unveiling the administration's full proposal in congressional testimony Tuesday. Read more about at the NYPost online: http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/M/MILITARY_DEATH_BENEFITS?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=HOME

  ERRI ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY/OPINION

  CHICAGO, IL: "Any politician who opposes this proposal should be voted out of office at the next possible opportunity," ERRI senior analyst and spokesman Clark Staten said in response to the increased death benefit.  "The families of all of those killed in the line of duty (KIA) deserve everything we can do to help them...both financially and psychologically," Staten continued. "We would recommend immediate passage and implementation of these measures," the ERRI CEO added.

  "Since the inception of this country, the American people have owed a tremendous debt to the men and women of our armed forces, who have risked and lost their lives to protect the rest of us and the freedoms that we enjoy everyday," the U.S. Army veteran added. 

  "Although we can't replace the family's loved one, we can surely make sure that their spouse and children don't suffer in poverty after the loss of their primary bread-winner," he continued.  "The statement that freedom is not free...is true and must apply...both in regard to honor for our slain hero's and to the treatment that is afforded their families, Staten concluded. As always, EmergencyNet News welcomes reasoned opposing viewpoints and will consider them for publication here.  Send to: sysop@mail.emergency.com
   

• 27 Jan 2005:  Pentagon Prepares to Rethink Focus on Conventional Warfare; New Emphasis on Insurgencies and Terrorism Is Planned
  Can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2005/rethink_conventional_war.htm
   

• January 2005 - Resource Locator - Asymmetric Warfare

  "Urban Battle Fields of South Asia; Lessons Learned from Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan"

  Prepared for the United States Army, Approved for public release; distribution unlimited, UNCLAS, © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation, 174 pgs. (large 2.4MB file in .pdf format - requires Adobe reader to review). Can be found at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG210.pdf
   

• December, 2004 -- Fourth Generation Warfare & OODA Loop Implications of The Iraqi Insurgency, By: G. I. Wilson, Greg Wilcox, Chet Richards, Powerpoint Brief in .SWF format - requires Flash Player. Internet location: http://www.emergency.com/2005/4gw_ooda_iraq.htm
   
• Dec 2004
  Trauma Care in Combat: Casualties of War — Military Care for the Wounded from Iraq and Afghanistan
  By: Atul Gawande, M.D., M.P.H.
  
  When U.S. combat deaths in Iraq reached the 1000 mark in September, the event captured worldwide attention. Combat deaths are seen as a measure of the magnitude and dangerousness of war, just as murder rates are seen as a measure of the magnitude and dangerousness of violence in our communities. Both, however, are weak proxies. Little recognized is how fundamentally important the medical system is — and not just the enemy's weaponry — in determining whether or not someone dies. U.S. homicide rates, for example, have dropped in recent years to levels unseen since the mid-1960s. Yet aggravated assaults, particularly with firearms, have more than tripled during that period. The difference appears to be our trauma care system: mortality from gun assaults has fallen from 16 percent in 1964 to 5 percent today.
  
  We have seen a similar evolution in war. Though firepower has increased, lethality has decreased. In World War II, 30 percent of the Americans injured in combat died. In Vietnam, the proportion dropped to 24 percent. In the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, about 10 percent of those injured have died. At least as many U.S. soldiers have been injured in combat in this war as in the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, or the first five years of the Vietnam conflict, from 1961 through 1965 (see table). This can no longer be described as a small or contained conflict. But a far larger proportion of soldiers are surviving their injuries.
  
  It is too early to make a definitive pronouncement that medical care is responsible for this difference. With the war ongoing and still intense, data on the severity of injuries, the care provided, and the outcomes are necessarily fragmentary. But from the data made available for this report and discussions with surgical teams that have returned home, a suggestive picture has emerged. It depicts a military medical system that has made fundamental — and apparently effective — changes in the strategies and systems of battle care, even since the Persian Gulf War.
  
  Source: The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 351:2471-2475, December 9, 2004, Number 24
  
  Can be found in html format at: http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/351/24/2471
  In .pdf format at: http://content.nejm.org/cgi/reprint/351/24/2471.pdf
   
• 01 Nov 2004 --ERRI Continues to Try to Assist in Understanding of U.S. Military "Transformation"
   
• 12 Oct 2004
  Resource Locator

  The Dynamic Terrorist Threat; An Assessment of Group Motivations
  and Capabilities in a Changing World

  Shortly after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, Air Force Chief of Staff General John Jumper asked the RAND Corporation to conduct a study entitled “Thinking Strategically About Combating Terrorism.” The yearlong project was divided into four research tasks, each undertaking different yet complementary aspects of the counterterrorism problem:
  
  • Threat assessment—identifying the character and boundaries of the threat
  
  • The international dimension—assessing the impact of coalition and other international actors on U.S. options
  
  • Strategy—designing an overarching counterterrorism approach
  
  • Implications for the Air Force—identifying promising applications of air and space power.
  
  The research for this report was conducted as part of the first task on threat assessment. It assesses the threat that terrorist groups pose to the United States and to its interests overseas by proposing a framework for evaluating their relative motivations and capabilities. The report describes the tools that various terrorist groups use to maintain group cohesion and to conduct successful terrorist attacks.

  Also,after identifying the potential vulnerabilities of terrorist groups, it discusses how these groups adapt and change and concludes with implications for the ongoing struggle against terrorism. This report therefore should be of interest to policymakers confronted with the task of reducing the threat that terrorism poses to the United States today. But terrorist threats change over time, so the authors have attempted to present a framework of use to decision-makers and academics involved in terrorism analyses and counter-terrorism responsibilities in the future.
  --  Source: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1782/MR1782.pdf  (126 pgs.)
   

• 23 Apr 2004

  ERRI Staff Laments Death of Afghan Hero

  By C. L. Staten

  CHICAGO, IL: It isn't often that you read here about the heroics of America's military forces. It isn't that many men and women of our armed services don't deserve recognition...we know they do. In fact, we would respectfully suggest that heroics are often commonplace on the very difficult battlegrounds in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  Maybe our failing in the matter relates to the fact that the people who run this website and EmergencyNet News have spent much of their lives in one uniform or another...and have seen bravery and honor in the military and emergency services on an almost daily basis.  To us, courage and service are a watchword and a common expectation. And, then there comes a tragic event that highlights an extraordinary individual who is of deserving of everyone's praise and admiration...most of all ours. This man, Pat Tillman (above), truly demonstrates what sacrifice and being an American are all about.

  Reports are coming in that, Tillman, an Arizona Cardinals safety, has today been killed while serving as a U.S. army ranger in Afghanistan. NFL officials said that Tillman had given up a multi-million football contract to volunteer for the 75th Ranger Regiment and go confront America's enemies, where ever they might be found.  Sadly, his chosen duty came to an end today as he was killed in the line of duty during a firefight in eastern Afghanistan

  The staff of ERRI and EmergencyNet News would like to express our most profound sorrow at Specialist Tillman's passing and would like to extend our condolences and prayers to his family, friends, and co-workers. Tillman was truly a hero and an extraordinary individual.  Specialist Tillman's service reflects the very best things about America and Americans.  (Subsequent reports say that Tillman was laterally moved to Corporal from SP/4 and that he was awarded the Silver Star posthumously)
   

• Jan, 2004 -- "Coping with an Attack, A Quick Guide to Dealing with Biological, Chemical and ‘Dirty Bomb’ Attacks"
  
  While our (military) forces are well-trained and capable of responding to a CBRN attack, the safety of their dependents and our DOD civilian workforce remains a concern. If a military base with dependents were attacked, it is doubtful the family members or civilian employees would know what immediate actions to take. By not managing such an attack properly, contamination could be spread around a base and the base medical facilities could be overwhelmed by the “worried well.” To address this concern, the CTNSP Life Sciences Office created Coping with an Attack, A Quick Guide to Dealing with Biological, Chemical and ‘Dirty Bomb’ Attacks, a colorful, easy-to-read poster that can be hung on bulletin boards in military and civilian offices and refrigerator doors at home. The poster consists of simple matrices describing immediate actions to take in case of a biological, chemical, or “dirty bomb” attack, plus answers to frequently asked questions. This poster can be reproduced locally and adopted for use by any local, state, federal agency, as well as non-governmental organizations.  --  Full Color Poster (25 inches by 38 inches, Adobe Acrobat pdf.)
   

• December, 2003 -- "The American Soldier" has been named Time Magazine's
  Person of the Year for 2003

  

  The Management and Staff of ERRI and EmergencyNet News would like to send
  our congratulations to all of the men and women who are defending our nation... throughout in the world...
   

• 13 Sep 2003: Response to Terrorism: Legal Aspects of the Use of Military Force
  By David M. Ackerman, Legislative Attorney, American Law Division
  Summary: The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, has precipitated widespread calls for the use of military force in response. Under U.S. and international law a variety of legal considerations attach to such use. This report briefly summarizes several salient aspects...
   

• 17 July 2003
  
  Gen. Abizaid Says Coalition Is Facing 'Guerrilla-Type Warfare' In Iraq

  Source: Washington File

  IRAQ/WASHINGTON, DC: Coalition forces are facing a classic guerrilla-type warfare campaign being waged by Ba'athist remnants and some foreign terrorist elements throughout Iraq, and are adapting their tactics in order to end the attacks, says General John Abizaid, commander of the U.S. Central Command. "We're fighting Ba'athist remnants...that have organized at the regional level in cellular structure and are conducting what I would describe as a classical guerrilla-type campaign against us," he told reporters at the Pentagon July 16.

  "We're seeing a cellular organization of six to eight people...attacking us sometimes at times and places of their own choosing. And other times we attack them at times and places of our choosing. They are receiving financial help from probably regional-level leaders," he said.

  Abizaid said there is also significant terrorist group activity in Iraq. "Ansar al-Islam, which is a terrorist group that we hit very hard in the very opening stages in the war up in the area of northern Iraq and northeast of Sulimaniyah...is reforming and is presenting a threat to us." They could be infiltrating through Iran, he added.

  He also cited a threat from al-Qaeda or "al-Qaeda look-alikes" who are "making an opportunity to move against us." But, the primary resistance is from mid-level Ba'athist leaders, he said. "It is getting more organized, and it is learning. It is adapting to our tactics, techniques and procedures, and we've got to adapt to their tactics, techniques and procedures..."

  ERRI references: "29 Mar 2003: Urban Warfare Considerations; Understanding and Combating Irregular and Guerilla Forces During A 'Conventional War' In Iraq"

  5 May 2002: “Military Response to Fourth Generation Warfare in Afghanistan”

  24 Sep 2001: WAR ON TERROR-2001; What We Expect in The Coming "War on Terrorism"

  19 February 2001: "Anticipating the Nature of the Next Conflict"

  04/27/98 Asymmetric Warfare, the Evolution and Devolution of Terrorism; The Coming Challenge For Emergency and National Security Forces

  IRAQ: On the anniversary of the revolution that put the former leader's party in power in Iraq, a speaker purported to be Saddam Hussein urged his followers to wage a holy war against U.S. and British forces. The new recording was played Thursday on two Arabic television stations. U.S. troops were on the alert for attacks timed to coincide with the anniversary of the 1968 Ba'ath party revolution. Saddam officially took power 11 years later. This latest tape has not been authenticated by Western military and intelligence sources at the time of this report.
   

• 24 May 2003
  
  Report Says China's Military Lags Far Behind U.S.

  NEW YORK CITY: A new report says that China has emerged as an increasingly powerful competitor in global markets, but its military technology remains at least 20 years behind the United States. The report, by the Council on Foreign Relations, said the United States is likely to continue to lead China in military capability for at least 20 years if the United States continues its rate of military spending. The 92-page report, released Thursday, was prepared by a task force led by former Secretary of Defense Harold Brown and retired Navy admiral Joseph Prueher, a former U.S. ambassador to China.

  The task force found that China's military spending rose throughout the 1990s, and that the country is poised to become the predominant military power in East Asia, though it said North Korea could spark a change in the balance of power in the region. While the report pinpointed the Taiwan Strait as an area of concern, the task force said China is unlikely to invade Taiwan, though it said China could impose blockades on Taiwan or lay mines in the strait. The report said that U.S. forces would prevail in a conflict with China, but China could "impose serious risks and costs" on the U.S. military if the United States battled with China over Taiwan...
   

• Summary and Historical Chronology of ERRI/EmergencyNet News Stories Concerning A Conflict With Iraq and Disarmament  01 Dec 2002 to Present
   

• 29 Mar 2003: Urban Warfare Considerations; Understanding and Combating Irregular and Guerilla Forces During A "Conventional War" In Iraq
   

• 09 Mar 2003
  
  U.S. Forces May Be Targeted By Al-Qaeda In War

  WASHINGTON: Counterterrorism officials said on Saturday that members of al-Qaeda are planning to strike at U.S. and allied forces taking part in a war in Iraq. According to information acquired by U.S. intelligence, the operatives are subordinates of Abu Musab Zarqawi, whom CIA officials describe as a senior associate of the fugitive Usama bin Laden. The intelligence report does not suggest any kind of coordination between the Iraqi government and the al-Qaeda members. Instead, a CIA report said that analysts believe the terrorists are looking to capitalize on the chaos created by any military conflict to strike at American and allied troops.

  ERRI analyst Steve Macko said, "It should be remembered that members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban were promised a 'glorious battle' against the U.S. military in Afghanistan. They were amazed and sorely disappointed when they found their numbers dropping dead from an enemy they couldn't see or even hear until it was too late."

  The counterterrorism officials said operatives may be planning to use explosives or toxins to conduct the attack. At the center of U.S. allegations that there are links between Iraq and the terrorist group is Zarqawi, a Jordanian terrorist operative, and some of his followers. The CIA has described Zarqawi as a senior associate of bin Laden, but officials acknowledge some difference of opinion within U.S. intelligence whether it is accurate to describe him as a formal member of the organization.

  ERRI spokesman and Sr. National Security Analyst, Clark Staten, said, "Our most current assessment would suggest that should a conflict in Iraq be joined in 2003, that we will again see what we saw during the 1991 Persian Gulf War...namely, numerous convergent and concurrent terrorist attacks in multiple locations, of either a sympathetic or opportunistic nature." "During Desert Storm, we recorded about 100 terror events of greatly varying intensity...we would anticipate a greater number than that, should an armed conflict occur in Iraq this year," the veteran terrorism analyst added.
   

• 01 Mar 2003:
  
  ERRI Force Protection Advisory Issued

  By C. L. Staten, ERRI Senior National Security Analyst

  CHICAGO, IL: Given the details of recent threat indicators, the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) would respectfully recommend a force protection alert for U.S. military and diplomatic forces world- wide at this time, particularly those based in the Mid-East and Asia. A 28 February shooting attack on the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, and anti-American demonstrations in Yemen and Bahrain would seem to indicate that a heightened state of alert at all diplomatic and military facilities in these regions would now be prudent. Additionally, our monitoring of recent radical internet statements and contiguous "calls for Jihad" from several sources would further buttresses our assessment. Given these circumstances, we would predict an increased likelihood of possible additional attack(s) on U.S. installations or forces OCONUS in the coming days and therefore recommend an increase in THREATCON levels.
   

• Summary and Chronology of ERRI/EmergencyNet News Stories Concerning A Conflict With Iraq and Disarmament 01 Dec 2002 to Present
   

• INSTANT UPDATE -- 16:30CST - 19 Feb 2003

  302 Dead in Iranian Plane Crash
  
  TEHRAN, IRAN: - An Iranian military aircraft, operated by the Islamic Revolution's Guards Corps (IRGC), crashed near a central city Wednesday evening, killing all 302 people aboard, the official state news agency IRNA reported. "All those aboard were the personnel of Division 41 of Sarallah of the Islamic Revolution's Guards Corps," Kerman governor, Mohammad Ali Karimi, told the IRNA, adding that 18 of those aboard were the airplane crew. IRNA blamed the crash on "bad weather." Additional data to be published in tomorrow's EmergencyNet Daily Emergency Service Report...

  14:00CST - 23:30 Tehran time - 19 Feb 2003

  Plane Reported Down in S.E. Iran

  TEHRAN, IRAN: (EmergencyNet News) -- According to preliminary and as yet officially unconfirmed reports from the region, an Iranian airliner with as many as 250 people on board is missing and believed to have crashed. The incident was being reported as occurring at around 17:30 hrs. local time. There is some suggestion that the plane may have been carrying "military personnel." The cause of the crash is not presently clear. Few official details are currently available and EmergencyNet News is monitoring events in Iran and will bring you additional facts as they emerge...
   

• 30 Jan 2003
  
  Chairman Of U.S. Joint Chiefs Confirms U.S. Troops In N. Iraq

  IRAQ/WASHINGTON: General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed on Wednesday that a small number of U.S. troops have been inserted in northern Iraq. Myers declined to specify the number or type of soldiers but called it an "insignificant" number. The troops, most likely special operations forces, are presumably embedded with Kurdish military units who would be relied on to help fight the northern front near Turkey if the United States invades Iraq.

  Military and intelligence officials have acknowledged privately that CIA officers may be working with friendly Kurdish factions, but Myers statement was the first time the Pentagon publicly confirmed their presence. History reveals that small numbers of Special Forces soldiers were instrumental in organizing, equipping and training Afghan rebel forces, and only a few hundred were necessary to guide the Northern Alliance to victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan.

  ERRI's Clark Staten said today that Gen. Myers statement points out the unique capabilities of American special operations forces. "U.S. special operators are everywhere and nowhere, all at the same time...known terrorists, throughout the world, should be concerned that U.S. counter-terrorist forces may be waiting around the next corner," Staten said.
   

• 21 Jan 2003
  
  U.S. Army 4th Infantry Division Gets Deployment Orders

  WASHINGTON: A U.S. Army Division with a total of 37,000 soldiers has received its orders to deploy to the Persian Gulf. The 4th Infantry Division, equipped with tanks, attack helicopters, artillery and other weaponry designed to defeat armored forces is known as Task Force Ironhorse. The Army announced on Monday that the task force has been ordered to "reposition" to the Central Command area that covers the Persian Gulf, where tens of thousands of other American forces are assembling in preparation for possible war against Iraq.

  The 4th Infantry Division is considered the Army's most lethal, modern, and deployable heavy division, with the most sophisticated information- gathering and command and control equipment. In addition to about 12,500 soldiers from the 4th Infantry Division at Fort Hood, Texas, nearly 4,000 soldiers from the division's 3rd Brigade at Fort Carson, Colorado, and more than 20,000 troops for 10 other installations comprise the task force...
   

• 20 Jan 2003
  
  US Soldiers Injured In Afghanistan

  AFGHANISTAN: Six American soldiers have been injured in Afghanistan in recent days. A military spokesman at the main US base north of Kabul said five of the injuries were the result of hostile action. These instances and regular rocket attacks against American military bases underline the continuing insecurity in large parts of the country beyond the capital.

  Some 8,000 US troops are still based in the country, many of them hunting for al-Qaeda remnants in the Pashtun tribal lands of the east. Four of the soldiers were injured in two separate incidents in eastern Afghanistan. One explosive device went off under a vehicle and another apparently went off attached to a parked bicycle.

  Another American was shot in the leg while patrolling on horseback in western Afghanistan. Rockets are frequently fired at American bases, though few do any damage as they usually miss their targets. Afghans helping the Americans are also under threat. Three have been injured in southern Afghanistan in recent days, one by gun- shots and two in a grenade blast. The identity of the  attackers remains unclear and under investigation.
   

• 07 Jan 2003
  
  Rumsfeld: Special Operations Forces To Be Given Larger (Operational) Role in Terrorism War

  WASHINGTON: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, saying the global war on terrorism is unlike any war the nation has fought before, announced that the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is being given an expanded role in the war on terrorism and will receive additional funding and manpower to carry out its new missions. "In Afghanistan and elsewhere, we've seen the indispensable role that special operations forces have and are currently playing," Rumsfeld said at a January 7 Pentagon news briefing. "Today we're taking a number of steps to strengthen the U.S. Special Operations Command so it can make even greater contributions to the global war on terrorism."

  "Since 1987 the Special Operations Command has been organized as a supporting command, meaning it provides warriors and materiel to the various regional combatant commanders, who then plan and direct missions," he said. "By organizing at SOCOM headquarters in Tampa, as well as at smaller Theater Special Operations Commands in regional theaters, the Special Operations Command will have the tools it will need to plan and execute missions in support of the global war on terror. This expanded operational role will be in addition to the current role it plays as a supporting command."  Source: http://usinfo.state.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/ display.pl?p=/ products/washfile/latest&f=03010701.plt&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml
   

• 01 Jan 2003
  
  U.S. Orders Infantry Division To Persian Gulf

  WASHINGTON: U.S. military officials said on Tuesday that an infantry division from Georgia has been ordered to the Persian Gulf region as a part of the military's preparations for war with Iraq. The troops, from the 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized), received prepare-to- deploy orders earlier this week. The division's 2nd Brigade -- several thousand soldiers based at Fort Stewart, Georgia -- is already in Kuwait on a regular troop rotation.
   

• 30 Oct 2002

  U.S. Forces Said to Be Operating In Djibouti

  

  CENTCOM: U.S. Central Commander General Tommy Franks said on Tuesday that between 700 and 800 U.S. Marines are operating in Djibouti, a tiny country in the Horn of Africa. The Marines are said to be there for potential anti-terrorist missions. At a Pentagon news conference, Franks said: "We do have more forces in that region, down around Djibouti. Well, as we have better refined and defined our relationships and what we're looking at, it seems to make sense to us to put this capability -- Marine capability -- in the vicinity of Djibouti to work with countries in the Horn of Africa."

  Some of the Marines are at sea off Djibouti while others are on land, most likely at a French base. News reports in September said there were about 800 U.S. forces in the region, including Force Recon, Special Forces, and CIA officers. Franks said: "Having that force there gives us the ability to increase our exercise work with all those nations."

  Djibouti is bordered by Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden (see map above). The movement of U.S. forces to the region reflects the possible widespread presence of al-Qaeda and other alleged terrorist groups, who are believed to be using a no-man's-land in Yemen and parts of Somalia as a base of operation since being expelled from Afghanistan...
   

• Summary of ERRI Terrorist Alerts/Advisories - 1998-2003
   

• 13 Oct 2002
  
  KUWAIT: Officials said U.S. forces came under fire from two civilian vehicles near a training area in northern Kuwait on Monday. No one was hurt. It was the third case of gunfire involving American forces in Kuwait in less than a week. On Tuesday, two Kuwaitis ambushed U.S. Marines during training exercises, killing one and wounding a second. Marines killed the two attackers.
   

• 07 Oct 2002

  

  WASHINGTON: In one of his most detailed justifications for disarming Iraq immediately, POTUS told a selected audience at a Cincinnati museum America "cannot wait for the final proof -- the smoking gun that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud." He warned in a broadcast address on Monday night: "If the Iraqi regime is able to produce, buy or steal an amount of highly enriched uranium a little larger than a single softball, it could have a nuclear weapon in less than a year." In a speech that quoted President John F. Kennedy and was clearly designed to be reminiscent of JFK's warning to the Soviet Union upon discovering missiles in Cuba, Bush said his aim was not war, but disarmament.

  Click here for Full Text of U.S. President George W. Bush's Remarks Tonight Concerning the Threats Involving Iraq, From the Official White House website...Cincinnati Museum Center in Cincinnati, Ohio, Monday Night, Oct. 7, 2002,  20:02-20:31EDT
   

• 05 Oct 2002
  
  CIA Report Says Iraq Hides Large Portions Of Its Weapons Programs

  WASHINGTON: A new Central Intelligence Agency report says Iraq has the capacity to produce and weaponize a variety of biological weapons agents -- including anthrax -- for delivery "by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers and covert operatives," giving the Iraqis the capability potentially to threaten the continental United States. Since United Nations weapons inspections ended in 1998 the CIA report, titled: "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs," says the Iraqi regime "has maintained its chemical weapons effort, energized its missile program, and invested more heavily in biological weapons," with "most analysts" finding that Iraq is seeking to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program.

  The report, released on Friday, asserts that Iraq "has expanded its chemical and biological infrastructure under the cover of civilian production." It also suggests that Iraq has probably stockpiled "a few hundred metric tons" of chemical weapons agents. Meanwhile, Iraq's offensive biological weapons (BW) program has become more advanced than before the Persian Gulf war more than a decade ago. "Baghdad has established a large-scale, redundant, and concealed BW agent production capability, which includes mobile facilities" which are highly survivable and can evade detection, according to the report.

  The report points to Iraq's unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as capable of delivering chemical and biological agents that "could threaten Iraq's neighbors, U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf and the United States if brought close to, or into" the United States. Iraq has defied U.N. resolutions and restrictions by continuing to pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the report states, and if left unchecked Iraq "probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade..."  The report may be viewed on the Internet at: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/iraq_wmd/Iraq_Oct_2002.htm#01
   

• 01 Oct 2002

  

  NorthCom Goes On-Line Today

  The Northern Command Headquarters at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado assumed command of military Homeland Security (HLS) activities in a ceremony today. Air Force Gen. Ralph Eberhart is double-hatted as both NORAD and Northern Command commander. The Northern Command will have to provide unified support for civil authorities as well as for the president and the secretary of defense, Eberhart added. That, in turn, will require improving relations with local law enforcement agencies to detect and deter terrorist acts and to train and work with emergency responders, he added.
   

• 29 Sep 2002
  
  The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, from the White House (Requires Adobe .pdf reader/plug-in to review)
   

• 10:39 A.M. EDT - 12 Sep 2002
  Click here to read the Remarks by the President of the United States, in Address to the United Nations General Assembly (Iraq, "A Decade of Defiance to the U.N.") United Nations Headquarters, New York, New York
   

• Now Available....

  

  ERRI/EmergencyNet News Special Report on the Attacks of 9/11
  
  Click here to access "One Year After; 9/11 First Anniversary Special Report," compiled by ERRI and EmergencyNet News... (Review requires Adobe .pdf reader or plug-in -- large file, 556kb, users with slow internet connections may require extended download times.

  Click here for our original coverage of the 9/11 Disasters
   

• 10 September 2002 - INSTANT - 16:30EDT

  NEWS RELEASE from the United States Department of Defense
  IMMEDIATE RELEASE
  September 10, 2002

  DOD CHANGES STATUS OF AIR DEFENSE EXERCISE

  The Secretary of Defense announced today a transition of air defense assets from Exercise Clear Skies II into an Operation Noble Eagle deployment. This transition involves the movement of missiles from storage in the local area to the deployed systems, beginning later today. This is not a response to any specific threat, but is a prudent precaution to increase the radar and air defense posture in the National Capital Region. For security and deterrent reasons, we will not disclose exact locations of the air defense equipment.

  [Web version: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep2002/b09102002_bt460-02.html]

  [ERRI analysts said that essentially this means that the air-defense launchers will now be armed and prepared for action, should a specific threat present itself.]

  09 September 2002
  "Clear Skies 2" Exercise Begins in Washington Area

  

  WASHINGTON, DC (EmergencyNet News) -- "Avenger" anti-aircraft missile systems will be stationed at Washington area military installations during an exercise that is taking place for at least the next four days. The time-frame for the exercise coincidently includes Wednesday's anniversary of the Sept. 11 hijack airliner attacks on America.

  Military officials, who asked not to be identified, said that the "Clear Skies 2" exercise did not call for launchers to be loaded with live warheads. The exercise, similar to one previously held, will test the integration and coordination of F-16 fighter jets and ground forces protecting Washington with missiles, and radar and emergency communications between a variety of both military and civilian agencies.
   

• 26 Aug 2002
  
  The Six Standard Phases of A Government Project/Investigation:

  Phase One:  Enthusiasm
  Phase Two: Disillusionment
  Phase Three: Panic
  Phase Four: The Search For the Guilty
  Phase Five: Punishment of the Innocent
  Phase Six: Praise and Honor for Higher Ranking Non-Participants

  -- Source Unknown, Reprinted from "Success-One Day At a Time," Pg. 60, by John C. Maxwell, Thomas Nelson/Hallmark, Inc.-Publishers

  Editorial Note to Our Readers: It is NOT the intent of the provision of this information to engage in political recrimination based on hindsight, nor to batter the hardworking and dedicated men and women of our nation's intelligence, law enforcement, and military agencies, nor to expose our collective weaknesses to our enemies...rather, this information is presented in an effort to provoke thought, encourage discussion, and foster change that will enable better overall preparedness for the USA. The time for a "sea change," among those who protect our country, has come...failure to do so now will surely result in a disaster that will dwarf 11 Sep 2001 by comparison.  

  ERRI Special Report: 16 August 2002 --9/11: Bush's Fault, Clinton's Fault? -- Or An Institutional Failure For Many Years?

  Additional. References:  Military Analyst's Terror Warning Fell on Deaf Ears," 1 of 3 parts, By Bill Gertz, THE WASHINGTON TIMES

  GERTZ RELEASES 'BREAKDOWN' DOCUMENTING DEEP INTELLIGENCE FAILURES, From Matt Drudge: http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz1.htm
   

• 30 July 2002
  
  AFGHANISTAN: A top Afghan intelligence official reported on Tuesday that a would-be homicide bomber with more than a half-ton of explosives packed into his car was just 300 yards from the U.S. Embassy on Monday when he was stopped by a chance traffic accident. Foreign intelligence information indicated the alleged terrorist, who was captured by Afghan authorities after a car chase through Kabul, is a foreigner and a member of the al-Qaeda terror group.

  *Assessment by ERRI's C. L. Staten: Our most current assessment at ERRI suggests that lower level Al-Qaeda associates are in the midst of undertaking a series of small or medium strikes on "easier" targets to retain public attention...and to include car bombings and assassinations. See above. These acts are being undertaken by "independent cells" with motivation by (and funding?), but little direction from top leadership of Al-Qaeda. It would be our estimate that we will see this trend continue and that there is a greater than even chance of an attack of much greater magnitude (possibly involving Weapons of Mass Destruction) during August or September. We are particularly concerned about a major "anniversary attack" on Sept. 11th, 2002, in the continental U.S.
   

• 4GW: “Military Response to Fourth Generation Warfare in Afghanistan” By Wilcox, G, and Wilson, G. I.
   

• 16 July 2002

  Resource Notification:

  National Strategy For Homeland Security, from Office of Homeland Defense, July 2002

  Can be downloaded at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/book/nat_strat_hls.pdf
  (Note: Requires Adobe Acrobat .pdf reader/plug-in to view)
   

• ERRI Annual Report Of International Terrorist Activity: 2001  (Statistics, analysis, charts, terrorist groups, etc. -- requires Adobe Acrobat reader/plug-in to review. Caution is urged for those with slow internet connections, this is a large 626kb file)
   

• 07 June 2002
  
  U.S. Says Embassy Kabul Could Be Attacked; Force Protection Alert II

  AFGHANISTAN: On Wednesday, U.S. Marines guarding the embassy in Kabul detained a man who was seen photographing the walled, strongly fortified U.S. Embassy compound from a slow-moving white van. Military intelligence and other sources said it was the second such incident in two weeks. Earlier, another man in a maroon van had also been detained under similar circumstances.

  U.S. military officials believe an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul is being planned for the day after the end of the loya jirga, the Afghan tribal council that is supposed to determine the country's political future later this month. Violence is widely expected in Kabul during or immediately after the six-day meeting that will bring together representatives of Afghanistan's complex and conflict-ridden patchwork of ethnic groups and tribes. One military official was quoted as saying: "0Something is definitely going to happen..." U.S. officials are on particular alert for car bombs or a rocket-propelled grenade attack.

  The U.S. Embassy in Kabul's New City quarter was reopened earlier this year following the collapse of the Islamic militant Taliban regime. Taliban remnants and warlord Hekmatyar's forces -- alongside Usama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network -- are tops on the United States' list of those thought to be plotting attacks in Kabul. (See Force Protection Advisory below - Dtd. 12 May 2002)
   

• 01 June 2002
  
  Wolfowitz Says World Faces Worse Terror Attacks Than 9/11

  SINGAPORE: According to US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, the 9/11 terror attack on the United States was a warning of worse terrorist atrocities to come. Speaking at a conference of Asia-Pacific, North American and European defense ministers and policymakers, he said that there were warning signs that "as terrorists continue to murder innocents, their methods will only grow more deadly. It would be a mistake to think that we have seen either the last or the worst of such attacks. It would be a mistake to think that, in the future, they will strike only in the United States." His emphasis on the likelihood of further terrorist strikes extended warnings from US Vice President Dick Cheney earlier this month that "there is no doubt" further attacks were being planned in the United States.

  Wolfowitz told the Asia Security Conference that the threat of terrorism was global and "threatens hundreds of millions of moderate Muslims in East Asia who are among the principal targets of the terrorists." Intelligence analysts have reported increased communications among al-Qaeda cells, which they said could be an indication that preparations for a new terrorist attack were be under way.

  In a speech opening the conference on Friday, Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew said militants linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network were plotting to overthrow governments in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore to set up an Islamic state...
   

• 12 May 2002

  ERRI Force Protection Advisory

  CHICAGO: Given the details of two recent threat indicators detailed below*, the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) would respectfully recommend a force protection alert for U.S. military forces worldwide, and particularly in the Mid-East and Asia. Add to these two incidents the recent attack in Karachi, Pakistan on French naval contractors, our monitoring of recent radical internet statements, and other general threat indicators -- and our preliminary assessment would indicate an increased likelihood of possible additional attack(s) on U.S. installations or forces at this time...

  Rocket Attack Targets U.S. Forces In Pakistan

  *PAKISTAN: A local official said on Saturday that for the second time in two weeks, a rocket missed U.S. special forces searching for Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan's frontier tribal belt. The target was said to be a vocational school in Miran Shah, where about seven Americans are thought to sleep while assisting Pakistani troops in the semi-autonomous region along the Afghan border. U.S. officials have not confirmed their presence in the building. The first rocket fired Friday hit a sports complex 150 to 200 yards from the school. The second rocket was set to fire Saturday but was found and defused by EOD experts.

  Missile Launcher Found Near U.S. Base In Saudi Arabia

  *SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi military officials said on Saturday that Saudi soldiers found an empty tube from a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile near a military base used by U.S. warplanes. A patrol discovered the missile launcher tube about a half-mile from the remote Prince Sultan Air Base, south of the Saudi capital, Riyadh, "at the end of the week." The Saudi officials commented after the Pentagon reported on Friday that a launcher tube had been found about two miles from a base runway...
   

• 26 Apr 2002
  
  Spring Thaw Likely to Spark Attacks in Afghanistan

  By Linda D. Kozaryn
  American Forces Press Service

  SHANNON, Ireland, April 25, 2002 – The spring thaw in Afghanistan may mean more al Qaeda and Taliban attacks on U.S. and coalition forces, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Thursday on his way to Central Asia. "My guess is that as…the weather improves, and as they find ways to communicate with each other, that they will probably again try to attack the interim authority and opposing factions in the country, as well as U.S. and coalition forces," the secretary said. The terrorists will try to "create an environment that is inhospitable for everyone except themselves," he told 12 reporters traveling with him. Rumsfeld left Washington Thursday afternoon on his third trip to Central Asia since the United States launched military operations in October against the al Qaeda terrorist network and Afghanistan's Taliban regime....
  
  Article continues at: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Apr2002/n04262002_200204262.html

  WASHINGTON, DC: According to a report in the New York Times, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia yesterday reportedly warned President Bush bluntly that the United States must "temper its support for Israel or face grave consequences throughout the Arab world," Saudi officials said. Despite previous concerns by a number of analysts, including ERRI, that Saudi Arabia could use petroleum as "leverage" in an attempt to change U.S. policy and lessen support for Israel, both Saudi and U.S. officials flatly denied that such an action was possible. "Saudi Arabia made it clear, and has made it clear publicly, that they will not use oil as a weapon," President Bush said.

  Islamic extremists in a number of forums, and Saddam Hussein and the country of Iraq in particular, continue to call for the use of oil as a "weapon of coercion" in their conflict with the West. ERRI analysts are also in general concurrence with unofficial allegations that fundamentalists, including the Bin Laden/Al-Qaeda organization, are attempting to use the oil issue to "drive a diplomatic wedge" between Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab states, and the United States. Never-the-less, ERRI analysts today said that it is also imperative that Saudi Arabia not be seen to be supporting "suicide/homicide" bombers in any way, nor engaging in the promotion of terrorism through educational, financial, or other efforts. According to the Times, Saudi Arabia is America's second-largest foreign supplier of oil, and in 2001 exported nearly 605 million barrels to the United States, or 8.5 percent of what the U.S.A. consumes.
   

• 23 Apr 2002
  
  IRAQ: General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Monday that the Iraqi military has moved more surface-to-air missiles into the northern and southern parts of the country in the last few days than it has for the last few years and has used them to target U.S, air- craft enforcing no-fly zones. After nearly three months of quiet, Iraq fired on at least three U.S. aircraft in the space of five days -- twice from surface-to-air missile sites in Mosul in the northern zone on 19 April, and once from near Talil in the southern zone on 15 April. The fighter planes responded with air strikes. The last time U.S. forces were targeted or fired on in northern Iraq was February.
   

• "Online since '95"

  ERRI/EmergencyNet News Undergoing Assessment Period

  By Paul Anderson, St. Analyst

  Chicago, IL (EmergencyNet News) -- ERRI corporate CEO and Sr. National Security Analyst, C. L. Staten, today said that as part of an on-going reevaluation of the services provided by ERRI, that consideration is currently being given to changing the focus and function of this website. "As indicated by a continued increase in our number of page views (hits) that we receive, we apparently invoke a tremendous amount of interest from the emergency, military, intelligence, and business community...and we are probably the most popular emergency service website on the World-Wide-Web." "That said, we have so far not been able to prompt the necessary amount of financial support necessary for the website to become completely self-sustaining," Staten said.

  Top Ten System Users of Emergency.com, by Domain Name

  April 2002

  1. nipr.mil
  2. navy.mil
  3. af.mil
  4. adelphia.net
  5. comcast.net
  6. attbi.com
  7. pacbell.net
  8. bellsouth.net
  9. optonline.net
  10. webtv.net

  "Part of the problem relates to our attitude towards marketing and refusal so far to make the website a totally commercial concern," the veteran analyst added. "So far, we have focused on providing useful content and thoughtful analysis in an expeditious manner to the communities that we serve, rather than selling ads or filling our pages with promotional gimmicks," Staten continued.  "It has always been our hope that the community would recognize the usefulness and accuracy of our products and support the ERRI and the website in some way," the retired emergency chief added.

  "Unless additional fiscal support is forthcoming, it is becoming increasingly obvious that we will soon no longer be able to offer all of the services that we presently do for free to the communities that we serve ...many of our competitors already charge a substantial amount of money to access their websites with similar information...and we may have to consider that option in the future." Staten concluded. Per usual, questions, comments, or suggestions concerning these potential developments can be sent to webmaster@emergency.com
   

• 06 April 2002

  Oil As an Economic Terrorist Weapon...

  IRAQ/IRAN: The Reuters news service is today reporting that the Iraqi Baath party, largely controlled by Saddam Hussein, has called for terrorist attacks on U.S. interests and the use of "oil as a weapon," in an apparent attempt to coerce allies of Israel to reduce their support for the beleaguered nation. A similar statement also came from hardliners in Iran in the past two days, also calling for an month-long "oil boycott" for U.S. and other countries, who may support Israel's right to self-defense against terrorist acts. ERRI analysts warned previously of this possibility and urged lesser U.S. dependence on Mid-East oil.   
   

• 25 Mar 2002 - From http://www.emergency.com/ennday.htm
  
  U.S. Calls For NATO to Prepare For Terrorist Disaster

  Brussels, Belgium -- According to the Reuters News service in a report today, Joe Allbaugh, director of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), briefed ambassadors of the 19-nation NATO alliance on the key lessons in handling the aftermath of the Sept. 11th terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. A major priority in the briefing was to convince the European allies of the reality of the threat of terrorist or weapons of mass destruction attacks on their own countries, Allbaugh said. "It can happen literally anywhere," he told reporters after the meeting. "The only way we're going to be able to whip this is to deal with it collectively."

  The Reuters report said that France, often reluctant to see NATO's mission expanded, reportedly wanted the European Union (EU) rather than the NATO alliance, to coordinate civilian emergency service response to catastrophic terrorist events. Interestingly, ERRI's Clark Staten presented a similar briefing to that issued by Mr. Allbaugh to senior NATO military officers in Norfolk, VA in 1999, at an operational seminar on "Emerging Asymmetric Threats and Trans-National Security Risks to NATO." ERRI terrorism analysts said today that both military and emergency services units will undoubtedly be needed to manage a major terrorist Chem/Bio/Nuclear attack in Europe.
   

• 10 Mar 2002

  BEAUFORT, S. CAROLINA: Two people were killed and a U.S. Marine Corps crew member remains missing after a USMC helicopter went down in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday during a mission to rescue passengers from an earlier helicopter crash. The civilian helicopter, carrying two workers on a Marine Corps project, crashed on Friday after 20:00EST. The U.S. Coast Guard rescued one man on Friday night, but he died later at a hospital.

  The USMC helicopter, based in Beaufort, South Carolina, was searching for the second occupant when it went down at about 09:30EST. A USCG cutter rescued four of the five crewmembers. One injured crewman was taken to a hospital, where he was in stable condition. The body of the other civilian was found Saturday morning. No information on the cause of the crashes was released.
   

• 05 Mar 2002
  
  Reprise: ERRI Assessment/Analysis on Afghanistan

  From Thursday, November 15, 2001 1:29 PM

  By C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst

  "The Taliban and Al-Qaeda are falling back and melting into the mountains, where they have a tactical advantage and great knowledge of the terrain. The real problem comes in six months, as guerilla attacks and terrorism are then undertaken by the reconstituted remnants of Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

  I don't want to "beat a dead horse" here, but if you look back at the history of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...you'll see that they were also most successful at the onset of their operations. The problems came over time as small bands of guerillas undertook attacks on fixed installations and convoys. These successful attacks then contributed to the growth of the Taliban and other rebel groups. IMHO, the problem is yet to come somewhere down the road...both political and humanitarian issues will also play a large role in future considerations of these issues.

  Incidentally, nothing precludes the Al-Qaeda network from undertaking a major terrorist attack on the U.S., her allies, or our installations overseas....in the nearer term. In fact, as greater pressure comes to bear on Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban, we feel it likely that there will be another significant terror attack by these groups. The current facts would suggest that this is the only way that they have to strike back at the USA. We remain concerned about the possibility of the use of "Weapons of Mass Destruction"...this potential further reinforced by recent statements by Omar and the discovery of documents on these topics in the Kabul area."
   

• 14:45CST - 21 Feb 2002

  Reports of Army Helicopter Down in the Philippines

  Manila, Philippines (EmergencyNet News) -- Early reports are coming into EmergencyNet News concerning a report that a CH-47 Chinook helicopter, carrying American troops, is believed down in the sea off the coast of the S. Philippines. Twelve U.S. personnel are said to be missing in the crash. The incident is being confirmed by Pentagon officials, though few details are being released as search and rescue operations continue. The incident happened at about 02:30 Philippine time on Friday (13:30EST - Thursday). A military spokesman said that there was no immediate evidence that the crash was the result of "hostile action." We'll bring you additional details if/when they become available...
   

• 07 Feb 2002

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS

  CIA Director Warns Of Continued Al-Qaeda Threat

  From the ERRI/EmergencyNet News Watchdesk

  WASHINGTON: The Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) George Tenet said on Wednesday that al-Qaeda terrorist attacks remain a real threat, with cells working secretly around the world on new and more deadly strikes. In testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Tenet said: "Al-Qaeda's leaders still at large are working to reconstitute the organization and resume its terrorist operations. We must be prepared for a long war, and we must not falter."

  The Director said terrorists have planned high-profile strikes on government and private facilities, landmarks and infrastructure such as airports, harbors and dams. He said: "High-profile events, such as the Olympics or last weekend's Super Bowl, also fit the terrorists' interest in striking another blow within the United States that would command worldwide media attention."

  The CIA director also said al-Qaeda, the Islamic terror group led by Osama bin Laden, has ties to Saddam Hussein's Iraqi government. Tenet said Iraq and al-Qaeda have a common aim in their opposition to the United States and the Saudi Arabian monarchy, suggesting "tactical cooperation between them is possible, even though Saddam is well aware that such activity would carry serious consequences."

  Iraqi links to al-Qaeda were raised by the Czech Republic last year after Czech intelligence uncovered a meeting in Prague between an Iraqi intelligence agent and Mohamed Atta, believed to be the operations chief for the 9/11 attacks. Since 9/11, almost 1,000 al-Qaeda terrorists in more than 60 nations have been arrested and the group's training structure in Afghanistan has been dismantled.

  In a detailed briefing on national security threats, Tenet, flanked by intelligence chiefs from the FBI, Defense Intelligence Agency and State Department, outlined the key dangers:

  -- Al-Qaeda is working on "multiple-attack plans" and putting cells in place to carry them out.

  -- Iran continues to support terrorist groups and has sent arms to Palestinian terrorists and the group Hezbollah. Tenet said: "Tehran also has failed to move decisively against al-Qaeda members who have relocated to Iran from Afghanistan."

  -- Terrorists could attack U.S. nuclear plants or chemical industry sites using conventional means "to cause widespread toxic or radiological damage."

  -- Attacks could be launched by al-Qaeda cells in major European and Middle Eastern cities, and al-Qaeda is connected with groups in Somalia, Yemen, Indonesia and the Philippines.

  -- There are fears al-Qaeda and other terrorists will attack using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. The Director said: "Terrorist groups worldwide have ready access to information on chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons via the Internet, and we know that al-Qaeda was working to acquire some of the most dangerous chemical agents and toxins."

  -- Tensions between India and Pakistan remain high over a 13 December terrorist attack in India, and the two nations could resort to nuclear weapons. Tenet said: "We are deeply concerned that a conventional war, once begun, could escalate into a nuclear confrontation."

  -- Terrorists could attempt to attack the United States by conducting cyber-strikes designed to cripple U.S. electronic-based infrastructures.

  The CIA director, appearing in public for the first time since 9/11, also defended the U.S. intelligence community from charges that it failed to anticipate and prevent the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee that he welcomed congressional inquiries into "our record on terrorism."

  Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, who is very knowledgeable on intelligence matters and who has been critical of Tenet as of late, asked the DCI how U.S. intelligence could be "utterly unaware" that terrorists were planning the 9/11 attacks. Tenet responded that intelligence agencies suspected an attack by al-Qaeda inside the United States but lacked details of when or where they would take place. He added, "The shock was where it occurred, not the fact that the attack occurred."

  Tenet said that in the spring and summer of 2001, "we saw a speculative threat reporting about massive casualties against the United States. These threat reports had very little texture with regard to what was occurring inside the United States. We again launched a massive disruption effort. We know that we stopped three or four American facilities from being bombed overseas. We know we saved many American lives. We never had the texture that said the day, time and place of the event inside the United States would result in September 11. It was not the result of the failure of attention and discipline and focus and consistent effort, and the American people need to understand that."

  Still hitting hard on the point, Shelby said the CIA has a "rocky history of intelligence failures," including the 1996 bombing of a U.S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia, terrorist bombings in 1998 of U.S. embassies, the 1993 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole. Shelby said: "Examined individually, each of these failures, tragic in their own way, may not suggest a continuing or systemic problem. But, however, taken as a whole, and culminating with the events of September the 11th, they present a disturbing series of intelligence shortfalls that I believe expose some serious problems in the structure of and approaches taken by our intelligence community."

  Tenet explained: "Intelligence will never give you 100 percent predictive capability on terrorist threats and terrorist events. We know that they will hurt us again. We have to minimize their ability to do so, because there is no such thing as perfect security in this business." The DCI added intelligence alone could not protect the country, saying security procedures must be in place at airports, embassies and other places to minimize risk. He said: "When the information isn't available we need to make sure our backside is protected. We know they will hurt us again, we have to minimize their ability to do so," he said, adding that nearly 1,000 members of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization have been arrested worldwide since 9/11.

  Defense Intelligence Agency chief Vice Admiral Thomas Wilson said in written testimony that he is worried a new massive attack against the United States or its interests abroad could occur during the next 12 months and singled out Colombia, the Philippines, or Indonesia as potential centers for planning violence against U.S. citizens or interests. Wilson wrote: "We must continue to be vigilant and never assume that we have 'won the war'. We will be most vulnerable when the threat appears to have diminished, security measures are relaxed, and we return to 'normal.' Terrorists work on their own timeline and are patient. They are content to wait for the right opportunity -- even if it takes years -- to increase their chances of success."

  Wilson said the intense attacks on al-Qaeda training camps had a devastating effect on the organization. He said: "What was removed in Afghanistan for al-Qaeda was, in essence, their Fort Bragg, their Fort Irwin. It was truly military-style training that was ongoing...It is difficult to establish the scale and the complexity of that kind of operation."

  According to the DIA director, bin Laden has no identified successor that could rally his forces as effectively if he is killed or captured, but warned that could cause the organization to splinter into different groups with different agendas. Wilson said, for the near-term, terrorists will likely favor easily fashioned or bought conventional weapons, but said the psychological and economic impact of last fall's anthrax attack has probably not gone unnoticed by the terrorists.
   

• 05 Feb 2002: From http://www.emergency.com/ennday.htm

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS

  Rice Says "It's Time To Get Serious" About North Korea, Iran, Iraq

  WASHINGTON: National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice defended the strongly worded warning about North Korea, Iran and Iraq made on 29 January by POTUS in his State of the Union address, saying these countries pose a serious threat and "it's time to get serious about it."

  Interviewed on Sunday on the Fox News Sunday TV program, Rice said "you don't get anywhere by pulling punches about the nature of regimes like the Iraqi regime, or the North Korean regime. It's not as if anybody really believes that these are good regimes that are just engaging in a little bad policy.

  "We've seen, in this war on terrorism," she said, "that speaking plainly is the way to rally people, not the other way around."

  Rice noted that the president said in his address that the United States wants to work with its allies on this issue. "I would say to everyone, Let's step back here, and instead of worrying so much about what the president said on Tuesday night, let's put equal energy into working to make sure that these regimes don't get these weapons of mass destruction."

  These countries, she said, "are a clear and present threat to us and to all of the responsible and civilized world. Because the Iranians, who spread and support terror around the world, the North Koreans, who proliferate these weapons, the Iraqis, who make a region of great importance to us unstable, clearly are a clear and present threat to America, America's interests and America's allies."

  The focus on these three countries is not a change in U.S. policy -- "they've been on notice for some time," Rice said. But Bush's words were "a call to the international community, to our friends and our allies, to do what all of us must do in terms of non-proliferation, in terms of cutting off the vehicles for these regimes to get these weapons..." (Article continues in EmergencyNet News Daily Intelligence Report, Vol. 8, No. 036)
   

• From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-Saturday, February 2, 2002-Vol. 8, No. 033

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS:

  Wolfowitz Says Coalitions Are Vital To Defeat Terror

  GERMANY: Addressing an international security conference in the German city of Munich, US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz has stressed the importance of coalitions in the war against terrorism. He said there would not be one all-embracing coalition, but different alliances for different missions.

  Wolfowitz is seen as one of the most hawkish members of the US policymaking team, but his speech was carefully tailored for an international audience. He said some allies might join with the United States publicly, while others might choose quieter, more discreet forms of cooperation.

  He said NATO's role was still important, but stressed that the Western defense alliance needed new capabilities to face new challenges in a new era. Wolfowitz was speaking in Munich on the first day of an annual security conference which brings together key officials and strategic experts from around the world.

  This year, the discussions among the world's defense policymakers are overshadowed by the fear of terrorism and doubts about NATO's relevance. Wolfowitz made an apparent reference to the US President's State of the Union address, when he described Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an "axis of evil" which had tried to develop weapons of mass destruction. Wolfowitz said that since the 9/11 suicide attacks on the United States, "we have acquired a visceral understanding of what terrorists can do with commercial aircraft." He added: "We cannot afford to wait until we have acquired a visceral understanding of what terrorists can do with weapons of mass destruction."

  Police dispersed several thousand anti-war protesters who took to the streets of Munich on Friday evening in defiance of a ban on demonstrations in the city during the two-day conference. Several dozen were detained. About 400 defense experts from almost all the NATO countries are attending the conference to discuss the fight against terrorism and the alliance's planned expansion.

  Authorities are hoping that checkpoints in the city, on roads leading into it and at the railway station will prevent trouble. Police say they have evidence that up to 3,000 of the 5,000 protesters expected are bent on violence. Many demonstrators are expected to arrive from Italy, Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands.
   

• From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-Sunday, January 13, 2002-Vol. 8 - 013
  
  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS:

  U.S. Sees Battles After Afghan War in Lawless Areas

  Terror Group Reference: al-Qaeda and Abu Sayyaf

  By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

  WASHINGTON: Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz said this past week that the war on terrorism after Afghanistan could focus on denying terrorist groups sanctuary in places like Somalia, Yemen, Indonesia and the Philippines, countries where they have sometimes operated freely. Wolfowitz's remarks provided one of the clearest outlines of the military's strategy for destroying terrorist networks.

  While Wolfowitz has a reputation as one of the more aggressive members of the White House war council, his statements suggested that the Pentagon could opt to put off the bigger and politically more difficult targets in the war on terrorism like Iraq, and therefore avoid conflict with some of its most important Arab and European allies, which have been leery about taking on Baghdad. Instead, Wolfowitz said, the military is now engaged with friendly countries like the Philippines that would welcome U.S. help in ridding themselves of terrorist networks. The Pentagon is also looking hard at possible terror bases in countries like Somalia and Yemen that are weakly governed and ill equipped to uproot them.

  Wolfowitz stressed that he was not providing an explicit forecast for the next step in the war on terrorism and that the Pentagon had not ruled out imminent military action against any country. He asserted that the U.S. military's devastating air campaign in Afghanistan had already induced many nations that have supported terrorism to change their ways, and that it would serve as a powerful deterrent against future acts of terrorism.

  He said: "I'd say almost everywhere one has seen progress. A lot of that progress is motivated by the sense of American seriousness and the fear of getting on the wrong side of us. To the extent that's the motivation, then obviously you don't want to issue a report card on those people and have them let up, because they're not doing it out of the goodness of their heart."

  Iraq, however, has shown no signs of opposing terrorism. Wolfowitz said while Saddam Hussein "is keeping his head down these days, that should not leave the impression that he doesn't continue to do a bunch of things that concern us." Those things include firing at U.S. warplanes patrolling the no-flight zones in southern and northern Iraq.

  While careful not to identify countries where the U.S. might next aim its military might, Wolfowitz said Somalia, perhaps more than any other place, fitted the bill of a lawless state that draws terrorists like a magnet. But he acknowledged that U.S. options were limited in Somalia, where, he said, "by definition you don't have a government you can work with." The Central Intelligence Agency, he added, is "looking for exactly those sorts of people" that the United States can use as proxy forces, as it did with anti-Taliban groups in Afghanistan.

  In the Philippines, he said the government was eager to quell a rebellion by Muslim militants from the Abu Sayyaf group who have been linked to al-Qaeda and have been battling government forces on Basilan Island, in the southern part of the country. U.S. officials have already begun training the country's forces in counterterrorist and Special Operations activities. He said U.S. involvement "might include direct support of Philippine military operations. "There's no question that we believe that if they could clear the Abu Sayyaf group out of Basilan Island, that would be a small blow against the extended al-Qaeda network."

  In Indonesia, Islamic militants have fought with Christians on Sulawesi Island and in Maluku Province, areas where the government is extremely weak. Wolfowitz said: "You see the potential for Muslim extremists and Muslim terrorists to link up with those Muslim groups in Indonesia and find a little corner for themselves in a country that's otherwise quite unfriendly to terrorism. In the case of Sulawesi, the concern is there isn't enough military to protect the local population or to create the kinds of stable conditions that keep terrorism down."

  He said that while Indonesia had expressed a willingness to crack down on terrorists, the government there was fearful of causing a violent backlash among its large Muslim population. He also said the United States was prepared to provide assistance. Wolfowitz said it was unlikely, however, that the United States would consider direct military action in Indonesia, "because it's such a big and disparate place."
   

• 11 Jan 2002

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS:
  
  War On Terror Said To Accelerate Worldwide
  
  [Terror Group Reference: al-Qaeda]
  
  From ERRI/Emergencynet News Watchdesk
  
  WASHINGTON: According to U.S. officials, the U.S.-led war on terrorism is proceeding worldwide, with increasing results even in problem areas ranging from Sudan in Africa and Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the Philippines in Southeast Asia. The United States is said to have tangible evidence that terrorist attacks outside Afghanistan have been disrupted, delayed or prevented by the four-month global effort.
  
  The growing number of arrests and the freezing of financial assets are, according to one U.S. official, "beginning to impair al-Qaeda operations and their ability to launch terrorist actions," referring to Usama bin Laden's terrorism network.
  
  As the fighting winds down in Afghanistan, the focus will increasingly be on this largely invisible half of the war and expanding it deeper into areas such as Somalia, an unruly country on the Horn of Africa where al-Qaeda has been active in the past--and still has ties.
  
  Between 800 and 1,000 terrorism suspects have been arrested or detained in more than 50 countries, not including the more than 640 held in the United States. Many of the foreign arrests have not been made public. More than 140 countries have also frozen funds in 270 accounts with assets of US$65 million. Most of the arrests and frozen assets are linked to al-Qaeda, but other extremist groups have also been affected.
  
  In contrast to the Afghan operation, the other half of the war, so far, involves limited or no military use of U.S. troops. In the other half of the war, covert intelligence operations or operations involving local militias or militaries are more likely to be used. Each operation has been tailored to
  local circumstances.
  
  According to U.S. officials, in the war outside Afghanistan, countries fall into one of three tiers. The first is made up of countries, most notably in Europe, that have the will and means to act on their own against terrorism. The U.S. role on the first tier has usually been limited to sharing intelligence.
  
  The second tier includes countries that have the will but need active support from U.S. law enforcement, intelligence, counter-terrorism or military advisors. The third tier consists of countries whose desire or ability to deal with terrorism remains in question.
  
  The five nations under the most intense scrutiny because of their political environments or past links to al-Qaeda, are Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, the Philippines and Indonesia. Four are unstable Muslim nations, and the Philippines has a militant separatist movement within its Muslim minority.
  
  As ERRI has reported several times in the past weeks, Somalia has long been the biggest concern because conditions there are even worse than in Afghanistan. Somalia is a largely destitute Muslim country, a failed nation-state, with a power vacuum and a highly armed population prone to internal clashes. After 9/11, the United States put the Somalian movement Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya on its terrorist list and froze the assets of Al Barakaat.

  Counterterrorism analysts tell ERRI that the U.S. is particularly interested in Ras Kamboni, an area near the border with Kenya where al-Qaeda cells have operated in the past. U.S. intelligence is also closely monitoring
  the coastline for suspicious shipping traffic that might infiltrate al-Qaeda forces back into Somalia.
  
  Progress has been made in some of the aforementioned most vulnerable countries. One of the most interesting break-throughs has been in Sudan, where Bin Laden lived, ran terrorist training camps and set up multinational business interests and a bank from 1991 to 1996. Sudan remains on the U.S. State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. But the country, ruled by an Islamic government, is now cooperating closely with Washington, most notably by arresting about two dozen al-Qaeda operatives and making them available to U.S. investigators for interrogation. Sudan also has provided intelligence data about bin Laden's
  activities, allies and financial network.
  
  In the Philippines, U.S. troops have trained local forces, which have carried out a series of raids on Muslim militants. Among them is the Abu Sayyaf group, believed to have long-standing ties to al-Qaeda.
  
  After more than a year of tension with Yemen over the slow investigation into the attack on the USS Cole in October 2000, the U.S. turned a corner with the country after a visit to Washington in November by President Ali Abdullah Saleh. According to diplomatic sources, U.S. intelligence guided Yemeni forces who launched raids in search of militants in Marib province in mid-December. Al-Qaeda has reportedly long had operatives and allies in Hadhramaut province. After its concerns about Somalia, the U.S. has the greatest worry about al-Qaeda operatives infiltrating into poor, overpopulated Yemen.
  
  Another of the five nations under scrutiny is also the biggest unknown and that is Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country, which is undergoing a troubled political period. As one U.S. official put it: "Indonesia is potentially a real harbor for al-Qaeda elements and Muslim extremists, and it's not clear what the attitude -- or capability -- of the government will be to deal with it."
  
  Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Philippines and Indonesia ... these are the countries to keep your eye on for the next few months. Beginning on Monday, these five plus Afghanistan will be included in the new "U.S. Counterterrorism Operations" section of the ERRI Daily Intelligence Report. Click here to learn how to get the latest EmergencyNet News every day on your desktop
   

• 05 Jan 2002

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS:

  War On Terrorism Already Enter Phase Two?

  [Terror Group Reference: al-Qaeda and World-Wide War on Terrorism]

  From: ERRI/EmergencyNet News Watchdesk

  WASHINGTON, DC: Those of us who read daily intelligence reports such as this may have already noticed but many ordinary people have not -- the U.S. has quietly began phase two in the war on terrorism. No, there hasn't been any bombing runs but there has been some low-grade activity in some of the countries we have previously mentioned were next on the list that the United States was looking at.

  Yemen, for one, has been, by all appearances, doing whatever Washington has asked to crack down on militants in its jurisdiction. Somalia, has, on one hand, invited U.S. operatives to come in country and take a look for any terrorist elements. On the other hand, they say there are no terrorist elements in their "country," if you will.

  One unnamed foreign diplomat assigned in Eastern Africa said: "These governments are afraid they might be the next U.S. target, and are therefore clearly keen to show they are cooperating in the war against terrorism." In recent weeks, the authorities in both Yemen and Somalia have tracked down and arrested several people with suspected links to master terrorist Usama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network. Dozens have been killed in these operations, on both the insurgent and government side -- especially in Yemen.

  One country that is being closely monitored is Somalia. In recent weeks, top U.S. officials have repeatedly said they suspect links between the transitional government in Somalia and extremist actors -- and have hinted that action might be taken soon against these forces. Interim Somali President Abdiquassim Salad Hassan has, as we mentioned, denied any such links and vowed to help the U.S. find any terrorists there. Last week, his government arrested eight Iraqis and a Palestinian on suspicion of having links with al-Qaeda. The arrests came one day after a diplomat from U.S. Embassy Nairobi went to Mogadishu, the first visit by a U.S. official to the Somali capital since 1995. Coincidence?

  A counterterrorism adviser to the U.S. government, who requested anonymity, says the arrests are a sign that U.S. pressure on Somalia is bearing some fruit. But the arrests, the adviser said, were largely symbolic, adding that he is skeptical that the Somali government would risk a destabilizing backlash by arresting any real extremists.

  Since the arrests in Somalia, violent clashes have occurred among different clan groups there, with 35 reported killed within the following week. While it is difficult to link the fighting directly to the government arrests, the out- breaks are symptomatic of rising tensions in the country -- and reminders of how quickly violence can flare up there.

  Meanwhile, in Yemen, the U.S. has reportedly asked the government to allow U.S. forces to participate in the hunt for members of al-Qaeda. While the U.S. State Department denies those reports, the Yemeni government says its own troops have been searching since 18 December for people identified by Washington as al-Qaeda members, and that at least 24 solders and six tribesmen have been killed in the ensuing battles.

  A Yemeni government spokesman said: "Yemen and the United States are cooperating in intelligence in the current anti- terror campaign." He added that Yemeni security forces are "capable of doing their duty and tracking down wanted terrorists and any elements who threaten the country's security on their own."
   

• 01 Jan 2002

  TODAY'S CENTRAL FOCUS:

  Forecast For Parts of Asia in the New Year Looks Pretty Grim

  By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

  With India and Pakistan becoming the world's top hot spot, Afghanistan's future uncertain and many insurgencies still festering, the forecast by analysts for Asia in 2002 is looking pretty grim. Many regional experts believe that decades-old points of tension will in the next year lead to a repeat of the thousands of violent deaths that occurred in 2001. It would appear that a 2001 change in focus by the U.S. military to the Asian region is probably warranted.

  If one were to closely study the conflicts in the Asian region, the main point that would come up is the apparent inability of countries to resolve tensions that lead to the conflicts. None of the conflicts are new. The military build-up of Pakistan and Indian troops along their border and in disputed Kashmir is an example of unresolved tensions leading to conflict. The disagreement over Kashmir dates back to 1947. The latest crisis actually stemmed from the same issues as those that sparked the previous conflicts between the two nations.

  And even without all-out war, the Muslim separatist insurgency in Kashmir, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, continues to exact a deadly daily toll. According to official Indian figures, separatist-related violence in Kashmir claimed 3,440 lives in 2001, including 2,017 militants, 927 civilians and 496 security personnel. The reports of violence come in so regular from Kashmir that the analysts in the ERRI Watch Center sometimes have a difficult time keeping them straight.

  War with Pakistan and the insurgency in Kashmir isn't the only problems India faces. It also has armed insurgencies in its northeast states with at least 30 rebel groups making demands that range from secession to greater autonomy and the right to self-determination. More than 75,000 people have lost their lives to insurgency in the northeast since India's independence from the U.K. 54 years ago.

  The US-led military action inside nearby Afghanistan during 2001 has also thrown up many potential regional security pitfalls for 2002, despite the early promise of the war- ravaged nation's new government. What will happen in Afghanistan during the year 2002 is really unpredictable. Hong Kong-based regional analyst Lau Siu Kai warns that Pakistan, which had previously supported the Taliban regime, now has a potentially unfriendly government on its western border in Afghanistan as well as India to the east. Lau, who is the associate director of the Hong Kong Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, said: "Right now Pakistan is facing hostility on both sides of its boundaries so it is under a lot of pressure."

  Elsewhere in Asia, experts predict thousands of people will die in ongoing national crises in a manner little different from 2001 and previous years. In Sri Lanka, an average of 2,000 people have been killed each year since the Tamil Tigers began their push for an independent homeland in the island's northeast in 1972. And although Sri Lanka's new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is pushing for peace, most analysts are not optimistic. Currently there is a ceasefire between the two sides on the island. But history has shown that the Tamil Tigers have used peace negotiations and ceasefires as an excuse to regroup and reinforce and have come back even stronger.

  In the basket-case nation of Indonesia, 2001 was another bloody year with an estimated 1,700 people killed in a government crackdown on separatist guerrillas in the province of Aceh. Indigenous Dayak tribes slaughtered about 500 Madurese migrants in the jungles of Borneo in March. And in the far eastern province of Irian Jaya, more than 50 people were killed as the government beefed up security forces. These numbers are probably conservative.

  In the Philippines, the long-time battle between the national government and Muslims seeking an independent homeland in the south claimed hundreds of lives. A resurgent communist movement also caused deaths. Nepal is also on the radar screen. More than 500 people were killed as Maoist rebels stepped up a five-year rebellion to overthrow the monarchy. Things seem to be heating up there.

  One shouldn't forget Burma. The unresolved battle between ethnic Karen rebels and the military junta has led to as many as 300,000 people being internally displaced and countless (because we really don't know) others killed.

  Analysts say that besides from national insurgencies and India/Pakistan, there are other major regional tensions that are poised, as always, to become international flash points. There is always tension between China and Taiwan and the two Koreas that might require watching.
   

• Crisis in Kashmir: 2001 Series of EmergencyNet News "Real-Time" Reports Concerning Escalating Tensions Between Pakistan and India -- 13 Dec 2001 to Present (Update, reference, and analysis - 03 Jan 2002)
   

• Summary and Chronology of EmergencyNet News Military-Related Reports:
  02 Jan 2001 to 29 Nov 2001
   

• DoD USS COLE COMMISSION REPORT, 9 January 2001, Executive Summary: http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/cole20010109.html
   

• 24 Dec 2000
  
  WORLDWIDE-ASYMMETRIC WARFARE:

  Low-Tech War Tools Used In Terror Threats

  According to a sweeping new study by intelligence analysts and non-government experts, the main threats to U.S. territory over the coming 15 years will likely come from terrorists and other adversaries using low-tech tools of war. According to the assessment "Global Trends 2015," published last week, the threat is made more worrisome by a trend toward increasing collusion among terrorists, drug traffickers, weapons proliferaters and organized crime.

  The report said: "Most adversaries will recognize the information advantage and military superiority of the United States in 2015. Rather than acquiesce to any potential U.S. military domination, they will try to circumvent or minimize U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses."

  The report added that this kind of approach - known as "asymmetric warfare" -- will threaten U.S. interests not only abroad but also at home. The report said: "Such asymmetric approaches - whether undertaken by states or non-state actors - will become the dominant characteristic of most threats to the U.S. homeland." This will become the "defining challenge" of U.S. national security strategy and military force development in coming years.

  According to the report, high-tech threats also will loom large. The report said: "Advances in science and technology will pose national security challenges of uncertain character and scale. Increasing reliance on computer networks is making critical U.S. infrastructures more attractive as targets. Computer network operations today offer new options for attacking the United States within its traditional continental sanctuary, potentially anonymously and with selective effects."

  The report was 15 months in the making and was directed by the National Intelligence Council, a group of intelligence officials representing all elements of the U.S. national security establishment, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Also contributing were experts from private think tanks and academic institutions...
   

• 17 Dec 2000
  
  EmergencyNet Resource Notification:

  "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts"

  NIC 2000-02, December 2000

  This paper was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence.

  Available on-line at: 

  http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html
   

• 15 Dec 2000

  Resource Notifications: Major Reports on Homeland Defense

  Combating Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism: A Comprehensive Strategy

  Center for Strategic and International Studies Washington, D.C.

  http://www.csis.org/homeland/reports/combatchembiorad.pdf

  (Requires .PDF reader/plug-in to view)

  ERRI's Clark Staten was a member of the panel that prepared this report.

  *****

  "Toward a National Strategy for Combating Terrorism"

  Gilmore Commission Second Annual Report

  http://www.rand.org/organization/nsrd/terrpanel/terror2.pdf

  (Requires .PDF reader/plug-in to view)

• 11 Dec 2000
  
  MCAS-NEW RIVER, NC:

  Tilt-Rotor Crash Kills Four Marines

  A MV-22 Osprey has crashed overnight, killing four crewmembers and throwing the entire Osprey program into doubt.  The incident happened as the helicopter/airplane went down Monday night in a densely wooded area in southeastern North Carolina. 

  USMC sources verified the names of the victims. They were identified as: Lt. Col. Keith M. Sweaney, 42, of Richmond, Va.; Maj. Michael L. Murphy, 38, of Blauvelt, N.Y.; Staff Sgt. Avely W. Runnels, 25, of Morven, Ga.; and Sgt. Jason A. Buyck, 24, of Sodus, N.Y.  

  The N.C. crash remains under investigation, but Marine Corp leaders, including Commandant Gen. James L. Jones, say that the entire fleet of Ospreys is grounded and further production will be stopped until they can ascertain the safety of the revolutionary new aircraft.

• 06 Dec 2000
  
  PERSIAN GULF:

  Security Increased In Persian Gulf

  Pentagon officials said on Tuesday that U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen has authorized military commanders to send dozens of additional U.S. forces to the Persian Gulf to strengthen and augment port security. The move is said to be part of a Pentagon effort to improve the protection of U.S. warships and other military forces in the region in the aftermath of the 12 October terrorist bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen.

  To strengthen port security in the Gulf, Cohen authorized the deployment of extra Navy and Coast Guard security personnel. The Pentagon would be deliberately vague about where the security forces would operate and how they would be equipped and deployed.

  An investigation by an outside panel appointed by Cohen is reviewing whether the U.S. military as a whole can take steps to improve the way it protects and supports U.S. forces abroad.

• 04 Nov 2000: Series of EmergencyNet News reports concerning an apparent terrorist attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Aden, Yemen harbor...12 Oct to 14 Dec 2000 (Last Updated 11 Jan 2001)

• 28 Nov 2000-Rules of Engagement; The Reality, Not the Movie...an examination of the problem of establishing "Rules of Engagement" for police and military personnel...

• Winter-2000: "Back to the Future with Asymmetric Warfare," By Colonel Vincent J. Goulding, Jr., USMC

• 05 Nov 2000: Crisis in Kashmir: Summary of EmergencyNet News Reports of the Continuing Conflict Between India and Pakistan Over the Disputed Region of Kashmir-- 01 Oct 2000 to 05 Nov 2000

• WASHINGTON, DC:

  Groundbreaking Ceremony Held for World War II Memorial

  By Jim Garamone
  American Forces Press Service

  WASHINGTON, Nov. 14, 2000 -- World War II veterans, many in wheelchairs or with walkers, were out in force Nov. 11 to participate in groundbreaking ceremonies for the National World War II Memorial on the National Mall here.

  "We're a lot like the season," said Andy Glover, a vet from Harrisburg, Pa., as he watched the gusting wind knock more leaves out of the trees near the site. "We're like the leaves in that there's more of us falling each day. I'm glad I'm here to see this."

  President Clinton, former Sen. Bob Dole and Defense Secretary William S. Cohen joined with World War II veterans to begin the process of building the $140 million structure.

  Speakers and veterans stressed that the memorial will honor the more than 400,000 Americans who died in the war. It will also pay tribute to the generation that fought the war. Another purpose is to school future generations about the sacrifices Americans have made for freedom. Plans call to dedicate the completed structure on Memorial Day 2003...

  Read the whole article at:
  http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Nov2000/n11142000_200011142.html

• NATIONAL MILITARY FIRE/RESCUE:

  Resource Notification:

  "2000 WILDLAND FIRE SUPPORT After Action Review (AAR)," -- After-action report by 20th Engineer Battalion (Mech), 1st Cavalry Division, following their assistance to local authorities in Wildfire Operations during Aug/Sep of 2000.

  Source: http://call.army.mil/call/trngqtr/tq1-01/firesptaar.htm

• Resource Notification: 

  OCTOBER 27, 2000
  Business Week -- COMMENTARY
  By Stan Crock
  
  Sticks and Stones Can Break an Army

  Military theorists see conflicts such as in Israel as "fourth generation" warfare -- and warn that sophisticated weaponry no longer guarantees victory... http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2000
  nf20001027_861.htm

• 19 Oct 2000
  
  Retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, former Central Command CINC, today (Thursday) told the Senate Armed Services Committee the United States must prepare for a new "asymmetrical" conflict with guerrillas able to use new weapons to strike hard at U.S. interests.

  "There are no rear areas out here. There are no safe barracks. There are no safe places you could move. It's not just unique to the Middle East, although it's more intense and concentrated," Zinni said.

  "We will continue to face asymmetric threats. Where you shut them down ... they go back and cook up a new way I think you're going to find, in this incident, this is a new way, a new technology," he said.

  "We're going to see that again. We will eventually see a weapon of mass destruction used in a terrorist act, somewhere, in this mode. And I would just say that we had better start thinking about how we're going to be prepared for that because we're woefully unprepared for that event. And that's inevitable as this asymmetry continues," he added. (Source: Reuters News Service, "U.S. General Defends Using Aden, Warns More Attacks," Thursday October 19 8:13 PM ET)
  

• 14 Oct 2000

  IRAQ:

  U.S. Watching Iraqi Troop Movements Closely

  U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said on Thursday that the United States was watching current Iraqi troop movements but there were no signs of an immediate threat from Saddam Hussein. Cohen told a news conference that Iraqi troops had been identified moving in western Iraq, adding that this was also a training cycle for the Iraqi military.

  White House spokesman Jake Siewert said later that the United States would be prepared to act if Iraq threatens its neighbors or U.S. forces. Siewert said: "As we all know, Saddam Hussein is capable of stooping to any level.

  And he has demonstrated he'll try to capitalize on the violence in Israel and the territories to try to advance his own agenda. If he does intend something more menacing, we've made it very clear that if Iraq threatens its neighbors or U.S. forces, we maintain a credible force in the region, and are prepared to use it at a time and place of our own choosing."

  Earlier, U.S. defense officials, said U.S. intelligence had detected the movement by the Hammurabi Division, composed of about 15,000 Special Republican Guard troops, within the past 24 hours. The Pentagon, worried that Iraq might make a disruptive strike against dissident Kurds in northern Iraq in advance of next month's U.S. presidential election, has repeatedly warned Saddam against taking such a step. 

  Some fear Saddam might want to spring a so-called "October surprise" which heightens tensions in the Middle East and drives up the oil price in the crucial weeks ahead of the 7 November election.
  

• 07 Oct 2000 - Click here for a Series of EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning the Take-Over 
  of the Serbia/Yugoslav Parliament Building; Milosevic Overthrown By Popular Uprising -- 05 
  to 06 Oct 2000

• EmergencyNet Resource Notification:

  Secretary of Defense William Cohen discusses "Defense Challenges for the 21st Century" at CSIS
  Center for Strategic and International Studies
  October 2, 2000

  http://www.csis.org/av/cohen10022000audio.ram

  http://www.csis.org/av/cohen10022000av.ram

  Full statement available in both Real Audio File and Real Video Files. (Note: Requires RealAudio/Video Player). Both files are approximately 50 min. in length...

• Series of EmergencyNet News "Real-Time" Reports Concerning an Explosion Aboard the U.S.S. Cole in the Port of Aden, Yemen -- 12 Oct to 27 Nov 2000  -- Includes on-going series of exclusive EmergencyNet News reports concerning the investigation of terrorist attack on the Cole...

• 24 Sep 2000
  
  KOREA: MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

  REPORT ON THE MILITARY SITUATION ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA

  The FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1233) directs the Secretary of Defense to submit a report on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. This report provides an assessment of the warfighting capability of the Republic of Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command when compared to the armed forces of North Korea. It also provides an assessment of the North Korean threat to the Republic of Korea. Finally, it examines the current status and future direction of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.

  The report is now available on line at:

  http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep2000/korea09122000.html

• 18 Sep 2000
  
  SINGAPORE:

  U. S. Essential to S.E. Asia Stability

  U.S. military presence is crucial to stability in the Southeast Asian region, said U.S. Ambassador to Singapore Steven Green. Singapore also wants to see a responsible China emerge and the unrest in Indonesia settled, he said.

  Green spoke Sept. 17 to reporters traveling with Defense Secretary William S. Cohen. Singapore is one stop on the secretary’s six-nation tour of Asia.

  “Regional stability is very important for Singapore,” Green said. Singapore sees the U.S. presence in the region as building stability. Singapore has a “very strong” military and commercial relationship with the United States, he said.

  Singapore is the 10th largest purchaser of American products in the world. “That means that Singapore buys more products from the United States than China does,” Green said. About 18,000 Americans live in Singapore and around 1,300 U.S. companies have made Singapore their regional headquarters. The city-state with a population of around 3.8 million has influence in the area far beyond its size, Green said.

  “As relates to our military relationship, I don’t think there’s another country in the world that welcomes our presence more and makes more assets available to the United States than does Singapore,” Green said. “Singapore sees the United States and its presence as a stabilizing factor for the region. When we had our issues in the Philippines and left Subic Bay, Singapore made facilities available here for U.S. forces...”

  Source: Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service, http://www.defenselink.mil/news/#News

• 01 Sep 2000 - Series of ERRI/EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning an Emerging Terrorist Insurgency In Central/South Asia - 01 Aug to 01 Sep, 2000

• 21 July 2000
  
  S. KOREA/JAPAN:

  U.S. State Department Issues Public Announcement

  On 20 July, the U.S. Department of State issued the following Public Announcement for South Korea: 

  "The  U.S. Embassy in Seoul advises U.S. citizens traveling or residing in South Korea that there have been several random attacks in recent weeks involving Americans, including the stabbing death of a U.S. Army medical doctor, in the Itaewon district of Seoul. American citizens visiting the Itaewon district and market areas in Korea should stay alert, keep a low profile, avoid large crowds, travel in groups to the extent possible, avoid confrontations with vendors, and report suspicious activities to the police..."

  U.S. Forces in Japan And Korea Advised To Be More Vigilant

  The American Forces Press Service reported on Friday that U.S. military personnel are being advised to be more vigilant in regards to force protection in light of a "spike" in demonstrations against the American presence in Japan and Korea. Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon said at a briefing on Thursday that the increase in demonstrations against the American presence in the region is probably due to the summit in Okinawa, Japan, and because of some recent political developments in South Korea.

  Bacon said that opposition groups "are episodically more energetic. But the governments remain steadfast for the presence of the American military in the Asia-Pacific region."

  A number of anti-American incidents have occurred near bases in South Korea. The most violent was the murder of U.S. Army Dr. (Maj.) David Berry on 25 June. Berry was stabbed to death while walking with two other doctors in Itaewon, a popular shopping area in Seoul. A 37-year-old out-of-work construction worker was charged with the crime.

  Other attacks have been made against American service members, a Korean national working for U.S. Forces Korea and the spouses of American service members. U.S. officials in Korea have urged U.S. personnel to travel in groups or at least in pairs. In South Korea, U.S. military police will increase their liaison with Korean National Police in areas frequented by Americans...

• 20 July 2000
  
  WORLDWIDE/Force Protection:

  GAO: U.S. Military Bases Said Vulnerable to Terror Attack

  Congressional investigators reported on Wednesday that U.S. military forces around the world remain vulnerable to terrorist attack despite improvements made after a truck bomb killed 19 Americans at a U.S. military complex in Saudi Arabia four years ago. The Pentagon said the General Accounting Office (GAO) report contained errors and did not reflect its "strong commitment to combat terrorism." Officials did agree with some recommendations.

  Investigators from the GAO visited 19 military sites in Europe, the Mid-East and the Pacific. Their report cited several inadequacies in protection and procedures and gave examples without disclosing the facilities' location. The GAO report said: "Significant security and procedural anti-terrorism/ force protection problems continue at many installations."

  To obtain/review the entire report, "Combating Terrorism: Action Taken but Considerable Risks Remain for Forces Overseas" NSIAD-00-181. 29 pp. plus 3 appendices (10 pp.) July 19, 2000. click here: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/ns00181.pdf   (Note: requires Adobe .PDF plug-in/reader)

• 15 June 2000 -- Series of EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning a Coup, Hostage Incident, and Continuing Conflict on Fiji: 19 May 2000 to 25 June 2000

• Spring-2000: "The Human Terrain of Urban Operations," By Ralph Peters, LTC (USA-Ret.)

• 09 June 2000-09:30CDT -- EmergencyNet News Reports of Terrorist Assassination of British Military Attaché in Greece; 08/09 June 2000

• 02 May 2000- 10:00CDT-21 April 2000 ERRI advisory and series of 01 May 2000 real-time EmergencyNet News reports concerning MayDay 2K activities...

• 29 Feb 2000
  
  USA/WORLDWIDE:

  GAO Says DoD Has Poor Urban Intelligence

  U.S. Congressional investigators said on Monday that poor intelligence information about cities around the world, especially in developing countries, is increasing the dangers to U.S.military forces who may have to fight in urban environments without even accurate street maps. The General Accounting Office, the investigative arm of Congress, said U.S. forces currently don't have adequate information because urban warfare has been a low priority for the intelligence community.

  The investigators said: "The absence of good intelligence for urban settings can impede military operations and leave forces vulnerable to ambushes, friendly fire incidents and unacceptable noncombatant casualties." In recent conflicts in Kosovo, Bosnia and Somalia U.S. forces often found themselves with inaccurate maps and out of date information on the local people.

  ERRI analysts said that the mapping and understanding of urban environments throughout the world is becoming of increasing importance as non-conventional conflicts transition from the countryside to the heart of cities. "All you have to do is look at Grozny or Mitrovica in order to begin to understand the problems of urban warfare," ERRI's Clark Staten said today. "This is the future of OOTW (Operations Other Than War) and asymmetric warfare and our forces must figure out ways to be more effective when confronted with combat in built-up areas," he concluded. 

• 23 Jan 2000-10:00 CST--Summary of  Real-time Reports From EmergencyNet News Concerning 
  a Coup in Ecuador: 22 Jan 2000 to 23 Jan 2000

• 02 Jan 2000:
  
  RUSSIA/CHECHNYA: 

  Chechnya: Use of "Chemical Weapons" Reported

  The Itar-Tass news agency said that according to the Russian military on Sunday, Chechen rebels opposing them in the regional capital of Grozny had detonated several bombs with "toxic substances," but its troops were not affected. The Russian military command said the bombs, supposedly containing "chlorine and ammonia," had been detonated overnight and early on Sunday in Grozny's eastern suburbs. A greenish cloud, reportedly caused by the explosion, was seen hanging over the rebel-held city, where many civilians are trapped. It was the third time the Russians had accused the Chechen rebels of a chemical attack since they began their operation to try to take control of Grozny a week ago. The Russian military says it is well equipped to face chemical attacks...

• 16 Oct 99-09:30 CDT- Series of Real-time EmergencyNet News Reports Concerning a Military Coup and Governmental Crisis in Pakistan - 12 Oct 99 to 15 Oct 99 
• 09/21/99-10:00CDT--NEW WORLD COMING: AMERICAN SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY MAJOR THEMES AND IMPLICATIONS;The Phase I Report on the Emerging Global Security Environment for the First Quarter of the 21st Century (.pdf document - requires reader)
• 07/27/99-09:30CDT-Details Of How Close All-Out War Came In Kashmir
• Summer-1999: The Battle of Grozny: Deadly Classroom for Urban Combat, LTC Timothy L. Thomas (USA-Ret.) 
• 06/05/99-10:00CDT- Series of EmergencyNet News Reports of Escalating Conflict Between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir Region - 23 May, 1999 to 04 June 1999
• 03/30/99-13:00CST Op/Ed: Are Ground Troops Necessary in Kosovo?
• 03/20/99-09:30CST--Series of EmergencyNet News Reports on Yugoslavia/Kosovo Crisis: 13 Mar 99 to 20 Mar 99
• 03/16/99-08:30CST--Series of EmergencyNet News Articles Concerning Allegations of Chinese Espionage Directed Against America:  12 Mar 99 to 16 Mar 99
• 12/09/98-09:30CST--Nepal: One Of The Newest Hotspot On The Map?
• 11/16/98-12:00CST--Saddam's Latest "Rope-a-Dope"; Diplomatic Solution Reached at Eleventh Hour
• 10/15/98-08:30CDT--The Crisis in Kosovo - A Series of EmergencyNet News Reports - 05 Oct 98 to 15 Oct 98
• 10/07/98-10:00CDT--THE CONVERGENCE OF CRISES; A Summary of World Circumstances
• 09/16/98-10:00CDT--ERRI Summary/Review Of Global Conflicts; Are We Distracted?
• 06/09/98-08:30CDT--Series of EmergencyNet reports on Escalating Conflict in the ERITREA-ETHIOPIAN area: 06/06/98 to 06/08/98
• 05/28/98-10:30CDT--Series of Reports Converning Increasing Nuclear Crisis Between India and Pakistan: 05/12/98 to 5/28/98
• 05/20/98-08:30CDT--Series of EmergencyNet News Reports on The Deepening Indonesia Crisis: 05/01/98 to 05/20/98
• 05/02/98-10:00CDT--CIA Says Chinese Nukes Are Aimed At U.S. Cities
• 04/276/98--Asymmetric Warfare, the Evolution and Devolution of Terrorism; The Coming Challenge For Emergency and National Security Forces
• 03/18/98-14:00CST--State-Federal Public Safety Partnership To Generate Better Protection Against Terrorism and Disasters (From SSCOM)
• 03/06/98-09:30CST--Series of Reports Concerning Increasing Unrest in Yugoslavia/Kosovo Province - 28 Feb 98 to 06 Mar 98
• 02/23/98-22:30CST--Summary of Events; Iraq vrs. U.N. Weapons Inspector Crisis - Jan. 1, 1998 to Feb. 23, 1998 (91K)
• 02/16/98-15:30CST--Series of Reports on Economic and Civil Unrest In Indonesia - 02/11/98 to 02/16/98
• 02/12/98-12:30CST--Pakistan; A Country in Search of Its Identity (New format)
• 03/13/98-09:30CST--Series of Reports Concerning Terrorist "THREATCON ALPHA" in Washington, DC - 12 MAR 98 to 13 MAR 98
• 02/10/98-01:00CST--The WMD/Terrorist Threat From Iraq
• 02/05/98-10:00CST--Saddam Should Expect "Robust" Bombing Attack From The U.S.
• 01/22/98--10:30CST--Economic Turmoil in Asia Raises Security Concerns; Analysis (includes RealAudio Report)
• 01/07/98-12:00CST--The World In Conflict: What To Expect In 1998
• 02/23/98--The Latest Agreement In Iraq, Saddam Wins?
• 12/18/97-09:00CST--Khatami Seen Taking on the Establishment in Iran
• 12/10/97-14:20CST--The Changing Face of Iran; Is anything Really Different in Tehran??
• 12/02/97-09:30CST--The Unruly Nation of Afghanistan (ERRI Analysis)
• 01/24/98--Commentary; Let's Not "Wag the Dog" In Iraq...
• 01/13/98--Iraq and Latest Confrontation With The U.N. Weapons Inspectors
• 11/24/97-10:00CST--"HEAD'S UP;" The Iraqi Crisis Originated in Moscow??
• 11/18/97-11:30CST--Emergencynet News; Summary of Events-U.N. Crisis with Iraq-11/13/97 to 11/18/97
• 11/12/97-10:00CST--EmergencyNet News Summary of Crisis Events-U.N. Weapons Inspections in Iraq-11/08/97 to 11/12/97
• 10/22/97-10:00CST--Is North Korea Preparing For War? (2 EmergencyNet News Reports)
• 08/30/97-10:30CDT-- The Odd Couple; Saudi Arabia/United States Relations
• 08/17/97-10:30CDT--ERRI Analysis; Syria in Search of Allies
• 08/11/97-09:30CDT--The Israeli Defense Forces "Duvdevan" Unit
• 08/07/97-13:00CDT--Emergency Response to Chemical/Biological Terrorist Attack; Opening of ERRI "Lessons-on Line"
• 06/02/97-11:30CDT--Iran's Quest For Nuclear Weapons Continues in Bushehr
• 05/19/97-08:00CDT--ERRI Special Report; Survey of Military Personnel on the Quadrennial Defense Review
• 04/17/97-09:00CDT-- 2 ENN Reports; Security Alert at NORAD Cheyenne Mountain Site
• 04/12/97-10:00CDT--Military Forces in Bosnia; Intelligence Overload Report
• 04/09/97-08:00CDT--Strategic Knowledge; Preventing the Bombing of the Bridge to the 21st Century
• 03/15/97-11:00CST--Chaos Reigns in Albania; ENN Report on Recent Developments
• 02/16/97-10:00CST--North Korean Defector Shot in Seoul; Tension Heighten
• 02/06-7/97--GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO THE UNITED STATES AND ITS INTERESTS ABROAD, By Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, USA, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
• 01/05/96-14:00CST--Pentagon Planners Study Two Major Regional Conflict (MRC) Policy - ERRI Suggests Small Regional Conflict Policy (SRC) Study
• 11/14/96-15:00CST--ERRI Situation Report; Selected Events - Zaire/Uganda/Rwanda
• 11/13/96-13:06CST--White House Announces US Deployment to Zaire
• 11/07/96-16:00CST-Could the Taleban Bring Stability to Afganistan?
• 11/06/96-15:00CST--Is Colombia At War With itself?
• 10/02/96-12:00CDT--It's Time to Come Clean on Gulf War Syndrome; ENN Editorial
• 09/29/96-15:00CDT--ENN Editorial; Fairness is Required in Israeli/PLO Dispute
• 09/27/96-14:00CDT--Violence Continues in Israel for 3rd Day; Location Sit-Reps
• 09/26/96-13:05CDT--Intense Fighting Continues in Israel; Tanks and Attack Helicopters Deployed
• 09/25/96-15:31--Israeli Summary of Events; Rioting and Gunbattles, Worst in Five Years
• 09/18/96-12:00CDT--Pentagon Report; Failed Security in Dhahran Bombing of US Personnel
• 09/15/96-08:00CDT--Operational Profile; F-117A Stealth Fighter
• 09/12/96-14:00CDT--Tensions Continue to Increase In Iraq; Update and ERRI Analysis
• 09/06/96-12:00CDT--Keeping Iraq and Saddam "In a Box"
• 09/03/96-22:30CDT--The United States Attacks Iraq; And FLASH Traffic on 2nd Launch Against Same Targets (20:00EDT)
• 09/03/96-03:15CDT-- U.S. Cruise Missiles Launched on Iraq
• 09/02/96-10:00CDT--Popular Revolutionary Army Rebels Attack in 6 Mexican States
• 09/01/96-14:00CDT--The Crumbling Russian Military; ERRI Analysis
• 09/01/96-08:18CDT--Biggest Iraqi Offensive of Last 5 Years Reported
• 08/30/96 and 08/31/96-13:00CDT -- Iraqi Invasion of the Kurds; American Forces Plan Contingencies
• 08/30/96-14:00CDT--What are Syria's Intentions? -- ERRI Analysis, Part 2 of 2
• 08/29/96-13:00CDT--Could Syria and Israel be on the Brink of War? -- Intelligyst Analysis, Part 1 of 2
• 08/22/96 -14:00CDT - World News Round-Up; Hotspots to Watch in the Near Future
• 08/18/96-01:52CDT--*FLASH* Presidential Support Plane Crashed in Wyoming
• 08/05/96-12:00CDT--British Paper Criticizes Possible U.S. Plan to Capture Serb Karazdic in Bosnia
• 07/15/96-16:36CDT--Admiral Reports Iran Importing Chinese Anti-Ship Missiles; Gulf Threatened
• 07/08/96-12:00CDT--Reports Cite Saudi Shortcomings; Investigation Continues
• 06/05/96-17:00CDT--The Movement of Armor in Korea and Notes of Interest, By Ron Lewis
• 05/25/96-14:00CDT--ENN Special Report--The Attack on Qana, Lebanon; Was it a Deliberate Attack?
• 05/16/96--ERRI Assessment; North Korea Invasion of S. Korea?
• 05/06/96-21:00CDT--Muslim Incursion Into Africa; ENN Special Report
• 04/03/96-13:30CST--SecComm Ron Brown's Plane Reported Down in Dubrovnik, Croatia
• 03/14/96-17:00CST--ERRI Assessment of Chinese Military Capabilities; Taiwan Tensions
• 02/16/96-16:00CST--IFOR Soldiers Raid Bosnia "Terrorist School"; Iranians Seized
• 02/14/96-16:00CST--USAF SR-71 Spy Plane Flying High Again
• 02/08/96-16:00CST--Isreali Defense Industries Announce New Assault Weapon for Commandos (w/photo)
• 02/96--Bosnia Special Report; Landmine Dangers, 2 Wounded
• ENN Report; American Troops Review Dangers of Deployment to Bosnia
• ENN Editorial Regarding Bosnian Deployment
• 01/16/96-15:20CST--Chechen Terrorism Widens; Russian Ferry Hijacked...Hostage Crisis Worsens
• 01/15/96-14:00CST--Russian Commandos Storm Chechen Hostage Takers; Deaths Likely
• 11/29/94--Iran "Officially" Sending Revolutionary Guards to Bosnia