ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BELGRADE, YUGOSLAVIA (EmergencyNet News) - Russian envoys have warned President Slobodan Milosevic that NATO may launch airstrikes unless he takes "decisive measures" to end the humanitarian crisis in the southern province of Kosovo. Fearing airstrikes, Yugoslav generals put the nation's air defense on high alert, but tried a belated compromise by moving some tanks and other heavy equipment out of Kosovo. A Western diplomat said up to 120 Yugoslav army armored vehicles, including tanks, have been pulled out. Milosevic met Sunday with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, Serbian President Milan Milutinovic and Yugoslavia's top defense officials.

BRUSSELS (EmergencyNet News) - Veteran U.S. Balkans envoy Richard Holbrooke said Monday the situation in Kosovo is "fully as serious today as it was a week or two ago." Asked if he thought that assessment would be reflected in a crucial report by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan later Monday, he replied: "Yes." Holbrooke was speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels after talks with Secretary-General Javier Solana and the allied supreme commander, General Wesley Clark. He was on his way to Belgrade at the request of Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to see Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - The Bosnian Serb news agency SRNA reported that Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic plans to address his people on Monday morning to talk about differences with Belgrade over the threat of NATO intervention in Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia vowed on Sunday to defend itself against NATO air attacks after a strong warning from Russia that Western military intervention in the Kosovo conflict would cause a crisis in East-West relations. The SRNA report, monitored by the British Broadcasting Corporation, said Djukanovic's position differed considerably from the statement issued Sunday by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's military office.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News) - Punitive air strikes against Yugoslavia loomed larger Monday as NATO declared Belgrade had flouted demands for an end to bloodshed in Kosovo and the United Nations' top official blamed Serbian forces for massacres of civilians. U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke warned Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic that NATO raids were inevitable unless he met short-term deadlines that would involve a swift cease-fire and emergency aid for refugees. One U.N. source said, "Ambassador Holbrooke came to tell President Milosevic that there was not the slightest doubt in anybody's mind that there would be military action if he did not comply with last month's U.N. resolution."

BOSTON (EmergencyNet News) - According to Monday's edition of the Christian Science Monitor, while the United States and NATO prepare for possible airstrikes against Serb forces in Kosovo, Western diplomats there say NATO intervention could actually lead to more violence between Serb forces and ethnic Albanians. One diplomat asked, "Who do you think the Serbs would blame for airstrikes?" According to the diplomats, the only way to prevent renewed fighting after an air assault would be to send in a massive ground force, an unlikely commitment.

MONS, BELGIUM (EmergencyNet News) - A senior NATO military official said on Monday that elements of four Yugoslav army brigades plus special police still remained in Kosovo 12 days after a United Nations demand for a military withdrawal. He said their very presence constituted intimidation and a threat to ethnic Albanian civilians, provoking a "high sense of insecurity" which was preventing the return of refugees and talks leading to a political settlement in the Serbian province. A three-month Yugoslav offensive against guerrillas of the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army has displaced a quarter of a million ethnic Albanians, who form 90 percent of Kosovo's 1.8 million population.

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MILITARY NEWS

EUROPE

MONS, BELGIUM (EmergencyNet News) - A senior NATO military official said on Monday that elements of four Yugoslav army brigades plus special police still remained in Kosovo 12 days after a United Nations demand for a military withdrawal. He said their very presence constituted intimidation and a threat to ethnic Albanian civilians, provoking a "high sense of insecurity" which was preventing the return of refugees and talks leading to a political settlement in the Serbian province.

NATO charges that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is breaking promises to his Orthodox Slav friend Russia and has deliberately set out to punish and terrorize civilians and could not be trusted to refrain from further attacks. The official said the military and heavily-armed special police units were operating with real-time command and control so it could be safely assumed that they could have been pulled out within a day or two of the 23 September U.N. resolution.

The NATO official said, "There is no evidence to indicate that this was done." Although elements of the army forces and heavy weapons had returned to garrison, significant forces remained and their intention was not clear. In a report on Yugoslavia's compliance with Security Council Resolution 1199 on Kosovo, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Monday sidestepped a clear judgment on the military situation, turning the issue back to the Security Council.

Some NATO allies say a U.N. ruling that Yugoslavia was not complying with its demands would be a sufficient green light to begin military action. Others believe a further formal resolution authorizing force should be sought. NATO's Supreme Commander Allied Force Europe, General Wesley Clark, said the allies were ready to hit a variety of Yugoslav targets within hours of a political decision to do so and had the airpower in place to carry out the task.

The senior NATO official said the alliance had firm commitments from its members for an air armada "in the hundreds" should it be required to move beyond an initial, limited air strike to a phased campaign of bombardments. He said, "We have said repeatedly and consistently there should be no assumption of sanctuary anywhere in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia if such an action were conducted," underlining that air-defense systems would be knocked out.

The official said NATO was well aware of the risk to its manned aircraft. He also said ships and aircraft currently participating in NATO exercise Dynamic Mix in the Mediterranean, Adriatic and Aegean Seas could be used in an air strike. Some 62 ships and 170 aircraft were due to take part in the war games, which include a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group with cruise missile capability.

But he said it was premature to talk of ground forces. There was no consensus on their size or objective and consideration of such a step was "days or weeks away." NATO faces the prospect that, even with full- scale Yugoslav military withdrawal from Kosovo, frightened refugees will refuse to return to their villages unless an international force of some kind guarantees their safety.

The official said NATO had "a great deal of respect for Yugoslavia's integrated defense system" which was efficient and effective Western technology with former Soviet elements. He said the allies would view such a heavily armed opponent with respect, especially when it has had so much recent practice of combat. But although Yugoslavia has Mig-29 and Mig-21 fighters they would be "no match" for NATO forces.

The U.S. government's top national security officials met at the White House on Monday to discuss the Kosovo situation and received a briefing on plans for a possible military strike on Serb targets. A U.S. official said that U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke had not reached any breakthrough in his talks with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic on Monday, but had delivered the U.S. message that it wants full compliance from Belgrade on ending its crackdown on separatist ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

The official said National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, Defense Secretary William Cohen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Henry Shelton and State Department officials met for two hours in the White House Situation Room to discuss Kosovo. They reviewed the latest United Nations report on the situation, which U.S. officials have said made "crystal clear" that Belgrade has not fully complied with U.N. demands that it cease hostilities, withdraw military forces, allow humanitarian aid and permit the resettlement of ethnic Albanians driven from their homes.

The U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said, "The principals were briefed also by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the military options and the military plans. This is a refinement of the military plan they have been working on for a while."

ERRI WORLD SITUATION REPORT

ERRI Risk Assessment Services Tuesday, October 6, 1998 Vol. 2 - 092

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (UPDATE)

ERRI ASSESSMENT:

The "Federal Republic of Yugoslavia" (Serbia-Montenegro) is a moderately developed European country confronting profound political and economic changes. In view of the increasingly volatile situation in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), ERRI advises against all travel to the FRY. Foreign nationals are advised to consider leaving. Those who choose to remain should be fully prepared to leave the country at very short notice.

Robberies and other crimes have increased, especially in urban centers. Car theft is common. Travelers should be extra cautious on public transport and while walking in city centers.

On 1 October, the U.S. Department of State issued the following Travel Warning:

"The Department of State warns U.S. citizens against travel to Serbia- Montenegro. United States citizens in Serbia-Montenegro are urged to consider departing the country. Due to the failure of Belgrade authorities to comply with United Nations Security Council demands and in the face of atrocities committed in Kosovo, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are considering the necessity for military action. This action could be decided upon in the near future.

Both the police and Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) are active in Kosovo and each operates numerous checkpoints throughout the region. There have been incidents at both kinds of checkpoints in which guards have fired at vehicles whose occupants did not obey their commands. Due to the potential for violence, the authority of the individuals operating these checkpoints should not be challenged."

Most parts of Serbia may very well turn into a war zone and be subject to NATO bombing raids in the very near future. Because of this potential, ERRI analysts consider Serbia-Montenegro to be an EXTREME RISK, at this time. An extreme risk is defined as countries that have civil and other war situations wherein the central government does not control significant geographical areas, which are in the partial control of insurgent forces or where government control is immediately threatened. Also, countries undergoing a violent transformation through a military coup or revolution. Travel and/or investment are discouraged.

CRIME:

In recent years there has been an increase in street crime in the large cities. Local citizens frequently complain that they do not feel as safe as in the past. This may partially be attributed to difficult economic conditions and to the growth of an organized criminal class. While confrontational and gratuitously violent crimes are not a concern for tourists in Belgrade, Mafia-style reprisals can occur anywhere, including hotels, restaurants, and shops. As in other parts of the world, travelers should be especially on guard near railroad and bus stations, on public transport, and while walking in city centers. In case of emergency, the police telephone number is 92.

An analysis of the current general safety and crime environment in Serbia/Montenegro indicates a depressed economy, high unemployment and an ineffective and/or compromised law enforcement community that have contributed to a high rate of crime.

In a three year period, all categories of crime reported increased 90 to 110 percent. It should be noted that organized crime groups, and there are many in the country, are heavily armed. Poor economic conditions coupled with United Nations sanctions have fueled the increase of smuggling activities which in turn have fed organized crime and increased other criminal acts. As a result, leading criminologists estimate that even the most "radical" government efforts will not help prevent the upsurge in organized crime, as mobsters are the only individuals financially sound enough to take advantage of the current situation.

Crime statistics indicate an increase in all categories of crime with unsuccessful efforts by the police to cope with the problem. Contract hits, car bombings and drive-by shootings are often reported in the media. Until recently, organized mob attacks have not been indiscriminate and innocent people have been spared.

Most of the criminal groups in the country comprise of young men who fought in the Bosnian war and brought all their weapons and explosives with them back to civilian life. These individuals tend to have a feeling of invincibility because they managed to survive the war. Police inability to deal with the rising incidence of organized crime may be due to the involvement of some policemen with these criminal elements. Organized crime has penetrated all levels of society including the government, local officials and the police and this is why it will take a long period of time to bring the situation back into control.

U.S. nationals could be indirectly affected by the existing lawlessness, but there is no evidence that they or any other foreign nationals have been directly targeted.

TERRORISM/INSURGENCY:

In Serbia's southern province of Kosovo, ongoing tensions between ethnic Serbs and ethnic Albanians have worsened in recent months to the point of frequent armed clashes, particularly in the Drenica region north and west of Pristina and in the region near the border with Albania. Police check- points are numerous throughout Kosovo and the Yugoslav Army is increasingly visible outside garrisons. Armed ethnic Albanian extremists are also increasingly visible and have set up temporary roadblocks at some points. Large demonstrations by both Serbs and ethnic Albanians continue in major Kosovo towns on a daily basis. Ethnic tensions remain high in the Sandzak region as well. Travelers can expect to be stopped by government militia and should cooperate fully.

HEALTH CONDITIONS:

Although many physicians in Serbia-Montenegro are highly trained, hospitals and clinics are generally not equipped and maintained to U.S. standards. Medicines and basic medical supplies are largely obtainable in privately- owned pharmacies. Hepatitis A, tuberculosis, and typhoid fever can occur in Yugoslavia (FRY).

AVIATION INFORMATION:

Direct commercial air service between the U.S. and Serbia-Montenegro has been suspended since 1992. An application to the U.S. government by JAT- Yugoslav Airlines to resume service is being held in abeyance on foreign policy grounds until further notice. In June 1998, the European Union (EU) approved a ban on direct flights between EU member states and Serbia- Montenegro, which they are now taking steps to implement.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has assessed the government of Serbia-Montenegro's civil aviation authority as Category 1 -- in compliance with international aviation safety standards for oversight of Serbia-Montenegro's air carrier operations.

CHRONOLOGY:

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News 10/6/98) - Punitive air strikes against Yugoslavia loomed larger Monday as NATO declared Belgrade had flouted demands for an end to bloodshed in Kosovo and the United Nations' top official blamed Serbian forces for massacres of civilians. U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke warned Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic that NATO raids were inevitable unless he met short-term deadlines that would involve a swift cease-fire and emergency aid for refugees. One U.N. source said, "Ambassador Holbrooke came to tell President Milosevic that there was not the slightest doubt in anybody's mind that there would be military action if he did not comply with last month's U.N. resolution."

LONDON (EmergencyNet News 10/3/98) - The London Times reported on Friday that NATO military planners have devised a three-phase air campaign against Serbian military facilities in Kosovo and elsewhere in Yugoslavia. The first phase would target radar sites with Harm and Alarm anti-radar missiles, clearing the way for NATO planes to attack air defense sites, helicopter bases, logistics depots, ammunition depots and Yugoslav army barracks in subsequent phases of the campaign.

BRUSSELS (EmergencyNet News 10/1/98) - NATO allies pushed forward preparations for a possible air strike against Yugoslavia on Wednesday after warning President Slobodan Milosevic he would face "an important benchmark" in the Kosovo crisis next week. Ambassadors held a brief, unscheduled meeting of the North Atlantic Council as reports of atrocities by Serbian security forces against ethnic Albanian civilians piled on the media and political pressure for outside military intervention. A NATO official said of the session, "It's a sign that things are moving but it does not mean a decision has been taken to act." The consultations had focused on continuing preparations "to get our planes ready."

PRISTINA, SERBIA (EmergencyNet News 9/29/98) - Serbian forces pounded mountain villages in southern Kosovo on Monday, sending local people fleeing from their homes, only hours after Belgrade claimed to have ended its offensive. Western diplomats and journalists said they saw artillery bombard ethnic Albanian hamlets burning in the Mount Jezero area and spoke to desperate refugees streaming away from the zone.

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News 9/25/98) - The Pentagon is awaiting a formal order from NATO after Secretary-General Solana announced the alliance will ask members to support possible air strikes aimed at halting Serb attacks on civilians in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo. Pentagon Spokesman Captain Michael Doubleday said once the "activation warning" order is received, U.S. military officials will begin designating units to be sent to the Balkans if NATO decides to use force.

City: KOSOVO Country: SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Date of Event: 09/24/98
Subject: U.N. ALLOWS NATO INTERVENTION

On September 23, the United Nations Security Council, by a vote of 14-0, with China abstaining, adopted a resolution on Kosovo, thereby sanctioning the use of force, as long as regional security is threatened. According to Article 7 of the U.N. Charter, member states are allowed to use force as long as there is a regional threat to peace and security. The resolution was passed, hoping to apply further pressure on Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, also nicknamed the "Balkan butcher". His "police action" in Kosovo continues to displace more persons and refugees to move into neighboring countries. If no political solution can be found, the "Council will examine further measures to take for keeping the peace and stability in the region."

The Serbian Foreign Minister Zivadin Jovanovic declared the U.N. resolution "groundless" and "counterproductive", and that the crisis cannot be settled "with force." Regional Serbian President Milan Milutinovic reiterated that "terrorists and their foreign helpers and supporters are mistaken if they believe that they can violate the integrity of our country without having to suffer the consequences." He then stated the army has acted "honorably, responsibly, and professionally." There continues to be intense fighting in the central Drenica region (in the northwest), and numerous casualties are reported, but the exact numbers were still unconfirmed by independent sources.

On September 22, the U.S. held a press conference at the Pentagon. According to Pentagon Spokesperson Kevin Bacon, U.S. Defense Minister William Cohen is meeting with other NATO defense ministers in Villamoura, Portugal to discuss preparations for a probable military operation in Kosovo. Cohen will ask other NATO members for support. Bacon clarified, "If there will be a cease fire agreement reached, we will supervise its implementation." NATO apparently has two possible operations for action in Kosovo. The first one entails air strikes, according to Bacon, while the second would solely be a peace-making ground mission, having the duty of supervising a cease-fire.

Bacon disclosed, "The next step for NATO is to issue a 'warning before action'. This would be an official warning before actual action is taken, suggesting to member countries to begin preparations for what they have obligated themselves to do in the possible NATO plan. The 'warning before action' still has not taken effect, but it is the next step and I expect NATO to take it." Currently, the biggest issue in Kosovo is the immediate threat of a humanitarian catastrophe and the "most important guideline" in NATO operations.

City: KOSOVO Country: SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Date of Event: 09/22/98
Subject: 12 RELEASED POLITICIANS

Two International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) vehicles picked up twelve Kosovar Albanian politicians detained by Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) elements in Cirez on September 20. The twelve, led by Kosovo Parliament Deputy Speaker Dedaj and LDK Presidency member Krasniqi, reported they were fine. At a press conference in Pristina following their return, Dedaj and his colleagues said the UCK had treated them well, "questioned them about their political views" and then released them in a small hamlet in the Cicanica Mountains (NW of Pristina), not far from Vucitrn. (This area has been the focus of agressive Serbian military operations over the past two days.) Dedaj publicly thanked the ICRC for collecting the group in the village of Drvare (about 4 kilometers south of Vucitrn).

City: PRISTINA, KOSOVO Country: SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Date of Event: 09/21/98
Subject: DEMACI FORCED TO STEP DOWN

The political representative Office of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) issued a statement that Adem Demaci, the political representative of the KLA, must "disengage from all political activities for as long as possible" due to his deteriorating health. Demaci had just sharply criticized the U.S. Kosovo peace plan and Kosovo shadow president Rugova for accepting the plan as a foundation for negotiating with the Serbs. Many Kosovo politicians feel the plan is too pro-Serb and will split the ethnic Albanians over U.S. Kosovo policy.

With Demaci's departure, many believe the KLA has lost its political clout, giving Rugova's policy more credibility. The KLA controlled 50 percent of the Kosovo region, but after three months of the Serbian offensive, the KLA now controls less than 10 percent.

Demaci was a former political prisoner who had spent 28 years in Serbian jails. A few days ago, Demaci told Reuters news agency the KLA will not enter into negotiations in the near future and warned that without the KLA, the peace talks will eventually fail.

U.S. Ambassador to Macedonia, Christopher Hill, has been the chief negotiator in the Kosovo issue. He was recently presented by both the leaders in Kosovo and Serbia amendments to his peace plan, which officials are hoping is a signal that peace talks may soon begin again.

City: KOSOVO Country: SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Date of Event: 09/16/98
Subject: SITUATION UPDATE

Albanian sources report Serb forces are burning and looting the mining town of Magura, in the Lipljan municipality. According to the LDK's Kosovo Information Center, most of the population fled the town a month ago after a Serb offensive in the region.

Adem Demaci, the political representative of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) claimed the UCK, having withdrawn from previously held positions, is reorganizing. Demaci claimed the UCK will continue to fight and stated there will be no dialogue until the Serbian forces stop their offensive. On whether the group will change tactics, Demaci again implied the UCK would start a guerrilla war.

According to press reports, Jiri Dienstbier, Special Representative for the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, said in Montenegro yesterday the decision to deport 3,000 Kosovar refugees to Albania was unpleasant but understandable. Citing the danger than a large influx of refugees could destabilize an already strained republic, in which refugees comprise 12% of the total population, Dienstbier claimed to understand but not support the controversial decision.

City: MONTENEGRO Country: SERBIA-MONTENEGRO Date of Event: 09/14/98
Subject: NO LONGER ACCEPTING REFUGEES

Officials in Montenegro announced they will no longer accept refugees from Kosovo. Montenegro has already accepted over 75,000 Kosovar refugees, which is roughly 12% of Montenegro's total population. The local government can no longer provide the refugees with shelter, and medical reserves are depleted, which also affects the local Montenegrin population.

Some authorities believe Montenegro's retaliatory actions for not accepting more refugees is two-fold: one, to the government in Belgrade for forcing Kosovars to seek refuge in Montenegro and destabilize the region, and the second, to the United States for donating 40 million German marks for humanitarian assistance to Belgrade. Officials in Montenegro feel assistance should not be given to the side that caused the humanitarian crisis.

ERRI can provide custom, in-depth country studies specifically designed for executives and travelers. For more information, please contact ERRI at any of the contact numbers at the end of this report.

THE ABOVE INFORMATION WAS DERIVED FROM DEPARTMENT OF STATE, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, AND OPEN PUBLIC MEDIA SOURCE DOCUMENTS.

This report updated information regarding: ERRI Assessment, Crime, Terrorism/Insurgency, Health Conditions, Aviation Information and Chronology.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - The Wall Street Journal said on Tuesday that the West's halting approach to the Kosovo crisis mirrors how the U.S. and Europe have handled the Balkans for at least a decade. Diplomats say that there were many reasons for the delays and mixed signals. NATO needed time -- a lot of time, as it turned out -- to plan for possible action. Stiff Russian objections and uncertainty among some allies also made the threat of intervention less potent and a consensus harder to achieve. As always, there were political reasons for going slow, particularly concerns that NATO action in Kosovo would upset crucial September elections in Bosnia.

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - Tuesday's edition of the New York Times said that there has been a subtle shift in NATO's operations in Bosnia. Several hundred members of Italy's Carabinieri Corps, the country's domestic militarized police, have arrived to form the core of a new law enforcement force to maintain public order. NATO officials say that the unit's paramilitary approach, which has no counterpart in the U.S., may offer a European alternative to keeping large numbers of combat troops in Bosnia.

PARIS (EmergencyNet News) - France asked its nationals Wednesday to leave Yugoslavia immediately and stay away until further notice. In a sign that Western military action might be imminent over Kosovo, a Foreign Ministry statement said the order was issued "due to the uncertainty of the situation." It also applied to the families of French diplomatic personnel on the spot.

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SECURITY NEWS FOR TRAVELERS

EUROPE

BRUSSELS (EmergencyNet News) - The Belgian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday urged all Belgians living in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to leave the country as quickly as possible in the face of a possible NATO military intervention. In a statement the ministry urged Belgians choosing to stay for urgent personal reasons to be prudent and to contact the embassy in Belgrade. Belgium has already told relatives of its diplomats in the Yugoslav capital to leave by Thursday.

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - A Foreign Office spokeswoman said on Wednesday that Britain has advised its nationals to leave Yugoslavia immediately "in view of the increasingly volatile situation." She said that the warning went out on the British Broadcasting Corporation's World Service on Wednesday morning. She declined to discuss whether the move indicated Western military action against Yugoslavia was imminent, saying the warning was a "precautionary" measure. She said 117 British nationals were registered with the British embassy in Yugoslavia, although there may be more that are not registered. She did not know whether anyone was already preparing to leave. She said, "Obviously that's up to them, to heed or not heed our advice."

PARIS (EmergencyNet News) - France advised its nationals on Wednesday to leave Yugoslavia immediately and stay away until further notice. In a sign that Western military action might be imminent over Kosovo, a Foreign Ministry statement said the order was issued "due to the uncertainty of the situation." It also applied to the families of French diplomatic personnel on the spot. The statement recommended that French nationals not yet in the country stay away from Yugoslavia. The French decision followed a similar move taken by Britain, Belgium and the United States.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - Facing the threat of NATO airstrikes, Serb forces are apparently preparing for a military confrontation, loading anti- ship missiles onto naval vessels and camouflaging anti-aircraft guns. ABC News quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying there were several signs the Serbs had no intention of backing down in a standoff with the West over Yugoslavia's offensive against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. As part of their preparations, the Serbs have also upgraded some of their anti-aircraft missiles with Russian technology, making them more deadly.

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MILITARY NEWS

UNITED STATES

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - A Pentagon official said Wednesday that the United States has told NATO it could provide about 260 aircraft for a military operation in Kosovo province, should one be ordered. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the warplanes offered include two B-2 stealth bombers, a dozen F-117 stealth fighters, six B-52 bombers, the U.S. Navy's 70 aircraft on board the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower (CVN-69, Nimitz Class) and dozens of U.S. Air Force F-15s and F-16s based in Europe. Should the B-2 be ordered into combat, it would be the first such use of the bat-winged bomber. The official stressed that no movement orders have been issued for any of the aircraft at this time.

EUROPE

BELGRADE, YUGOSLAVIA (EmergencyNet News) - Opposition political sources said on Wednesday that the Yugoslav army has called up air defense reservists ahead of expected NATO air strikes. Notices have been sent to reservists mostly in southern Serbia.

The source, who asked not to be named, said: "These calls are to a limited number of people so far and mainly to those who used to serve in the Yugoslav People's Army Air Defense Force and are reservists now."

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EAGLE BASE, BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA (EmergencyNet News) - Officials said on Wednesday that U.S. peacekeepers in Bosnia take "very seriously" threats of retaliation in the event NATO launches airstrikes against neighboring Yugoslavia. General Kevin P. Byrnes, commander of the U.S.-run northern sector of Bosnia said his troops are well prepared to defend themselves and react in case of hostile actions.

The contingent of 8,500 U.S. troops stands out as a target if Serbs carry out threats to fight back in the event NATO conducts airstrikes to halt Serbia's crackdown on secessionist Kosovo province. Hard-liners in both Yugoslavia and Bosnia -- who envision a "Greater Serbia" that would join Yugoslavia with sections of Bosnia and Croatia -- have pledged to respond to a NATO attack with their own attacks.

A spokesman for the U.S. peacekeeping contingent said that they have heard, through reports, about the threats and the U.S. peacekeepers take them very seriously. The spokesman said there were no plans to increase security, although he said security is "our first priority at any time."

Located on a narrow, winding road about ten miles southeast of Tuzla, the site of Eagle Base itself signals a wariness of potential attacks. Strict security rules require Americans to move in patrols of no fewer than six soldiers when outside the base. More vulnerable are American civilians in Bosnia who work for aid agencies, reconstruction organizations or the U.S. government.

Last weekend, the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning American citizens of possible Serb retaliation. Due to the "potential increased danger," the warning urged all Americans in Bosnia to consider leaving the Serb-held half of the country, or at least to try to avoid traveling through it. This already has caused inconvenience for some U.S. employees based in the other half of Bosnia, the Muslim-Croat federation. By heeding the advisory, they often must travel for several more hours to skirt areas dominated by Serbs.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News) - A Serb leader has threatened to send NATO troops home "in coffins" if the alliance attacks to try to halt Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's crackdown on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. The threat came Thursday as U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright dispatched U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke back to Belgrade to warn the Yugoslav president that "time is all but gone" for a peaceful settlement. She declared that a united NATO stands ready to authorize bombing of the Serbs for their military actions in Kosovo.

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. defense officials said on Thursday that the United States has pledged radar-avoiding B-2 bombers and F-117A attack jets to a massive NATO force of up to 430 warplanes that could strike Serbian military targets. It would be the first combat use of the batwing B-2s, the world's most advanced, and most expensive, stealth warplanes. Each plane costs around $2 billion and can drop 40,000 pounds of satellite-guided "smart" bombs. The two B-2 bombers and 12 F-117As promised as part of a 260-plane U.S. package for the proposed NATO force are designed to avoid anti-aircraft missiles.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - Six B-52 bombers, one reconnaissance aircraft and 13 tanker planes left the United States on Saturday for Britain in readiness for possible air strikes against Yugoslavia in the Kosovo crisis. The Pentagon said the planes took off from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana at 2000 CDT Saturday. They were expected to arrive at Fairford Royal Air Force Base in England on Sunday. The deployment is the latest preparatory step taken by U.S. forces that will supply the bulk of the firepower if NATO decides to respond militarily to the Serb military offensive in Kosovo.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke and Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic plunged back into marathon talks over the Kosovo crisis Monday as NATO bombers were readied for a shooting war. Holbrooke described Sunday's 11 hours of talks as "intense" and "at times very heated." In Paris, French Defense Minister Alain Richard said any NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia would carry on for several days and target ammunition dumps, military airports and logistics centers.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke said on Tuesday that Yugoslavia had agreed to international ground and aerial verification of its compliance with United Nations resolutions on Kosovo and would sign an agreement allowing NATO to overfly the Serbian province. Holbrooke also said he expected the Yugoslav authorities to issue a statement later on Tuesday launching a political process which "we hope will mark a turning point" toward giving the people Kosovo autonomy and self-determination. Holbrooke said NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana and Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General Wesley Clark would visit Belgrade in the near future to sign an agreement allowing unarmed aircraft to verify compliance with a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Serbian security forces. NATO on Tuesday authorized air strikes on Serb targets but gave Yugoslav President Slobadan Milosevic four days to avoid them by ending his seven-month offensive against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

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LEAD FOCUS

BELGRADE (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke said on Tuesday that Yugoslavia had agreed to international ground and aerial verification of its compliance with United Nations resolutions on Kosovo and would sign an agreement allowing NATO to overfly the Serbian province. Holbrooke also said he expected the Yugoslav authorities to issue a statement later on Tuesday launching a political process which "we hope will mark a turning point" toward giving the people Kosovo autonomy and self-determination.

Holbrooke said, "We have agreed with President Slobodan Milosevic on a ground verification program augmented with an important aerial verification program." He said NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana and Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General Wesley Clark would visit Belgrade in the near future to sign an agreement allowing unarmed aircraft to verify compliance with a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Serbian security forces.

Holbrooke said he hoped Russian planes would fly alongside NATO aircraft to enforce the agreement. He added that there would be no NATO ground troops in Kosovo. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) would sign an agreement allowing for 2,000 "compliance verifiers" with diplomatic status to ensure freedom of movement for refugees and eventually "organize any election that takes place" in Kosovo.

Crucial to averting hundreds of winter deaths among refugees camped in the hills will be how quickly this ground mission can be formed and deployed.

A senior NATO diplomat said Tuesday that a NATO order authorizing the use of force was issued early Tuesday with a 96-hour delayed fuse. The clock is now running down to Saturday morning. The diplomat said that if Milosevic complies initially, staying NATO's hand, then attempts later to revert to a military solution, the allied threat of air strikes would "snap back" into action.

The extra time for compliance was decided on by NATO allies in a late-night session after U.S. troubleshooter Richard Holbrooke reported important progress in his peace mission.

The unnamed diplomat said that aircraft such as the high-flying U2 spy plane and the lower altitude P3 Orion and the British Royal Air Force Canberra photo-reconnaissance plane would patrol Kosovo, backed up by pilotless drones. There was no indication of the numbers of planes involved or the frequency of overflights, which would be set out in an agreement.

The diplomat said that in addition to accepting a specified type of overflight, Milosevic had agreed to move or dismantle some of his air defense capabilities in the zones to be patrolled by NATO aircraft -- a significant concession.

The Western allies hope the OSCE ground mission and the air regime will provide sufficient reassurance to the Kosovars to return to their homes. The verification mechanism would at the same time give NATO a full-time air and ground picture of Milosevic's adherence to pledges to remove his intimidating army and special police forces from the province.

The diplomat said Milosevic was still far from full compliance with United Nations demands -- for a troop withdrawal and measures to assure the safe return of an estimated 300,000 displaced ethnic Albanians, compliance with the International War Crimes Tribunal and moves to strike a political settlement. But the verification mechanism agreed with Holbrooke over the past 48 hours gave hope that Milosevic could be held to promises which at the moment are "still just pieces of paper."

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U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT NEWS

EUROPE

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - On 11 October, the U.S. Department of State upgraded its Travel Warning for Serbia-Montenegro to reflect the following:

"The Department of State warns U.S. citizens against travel to Serbia- Montenegro and strongly urges U.S. citizens in Serbia-Montenegro to depart the country. Due to the failure of Belgrade authorities to comply with United Nations Security Council demands and the ongoing violence perpetrated by security forces against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have taken steps that could lead to military intervention. While the Government of Serbia- Montenegro has given assurances no retaliatory actions would be taken against U.S. citizens, given recent history in the region, the possibility exists for spontaneous reactions against U.S. citizens.

On October 11, the Department ordered an additional reduction in staff as the NATO alliance moved toward an activation order (ACTORD). All Embassy Belgrade personnel in non-emergency positions and all dependents of Embassy personnel have been ordered to leave the country. Further reductions in staff will be considered as the situation warrants.

Both the police and Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) are active in the region and each operates numerous checkpoints throughout Kosovo. There have been incidents at both kinds of checkpoints in which guards have fired at vehicles whose occupants did not obey their commands. Due to the potential for violence, the authority of the indvividuals operating these checkpoints should not be challenged."

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - The New York Times said on Tuesday that Moscow tried to head off NATO's threat to bomb Serb positions in Kosovo by warning a raid could jeopardize Russia's cooperation with the Western alliance. The ascension of Yevgeny Primakov to prime minister is seen contributing to Moscow's determination to take a stand against the West. Primakov is widely viewed as anti-Western.

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The White House says that Americans won't be a large part of a 2,000-member civilian force that will be go into Kosovo to verify progress toward peace between Serbs and ethnic Albanians. A still undetermined number of American observers and members of the U.S. military -- all unarmed and wearing civilian clothes -- will join the international monitors. But the primary American role will be conducting air reconnaissance and maintaining a threat of NATO airstrikes if Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic fails to meet commitments he made to stop fighting secessionists and let refugees go home.

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INTELLIGENCE BRIEFS

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The Pentagon said on Tuesday that NATO is expected to station a stand-by "rapid reaction" military presence near Kosovo to protect unarmed observers of an agreement to end violence in the Serbian province. U.S. Navy Captain Mike Doubleday, a Defense Department spokesman, said, "I believe that what you will see is some kind of rapid reaction capability which would be over the horizon, but not located there in Kosovo."

BRUSSELS (EmergencyNet News) - NATO Secretary General Javier Solana said on Thursday that NATO is still not satisfied that Yugoslav security forces are complying with international demands to pull out of Kosovo despite a positive assessment from Washington. Solana, at Alliance headquarters in Brussels, said: "The information we have at this very moment, this morning, is that still compliance is not a reality." Solana said he would probably go to Belgrade on Thursday afternoon or Friday to sign an accord on airborne verification of the settlement worked out by U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke.

LEAD FOCUS

BRUSSELS (EmergencyNet News) - NATO Secretary General Javier Solana said on Thursday that NATO is still not satisfied that Yugoslav security forces are complying with international demands to pull out of Kosovo despite a positive assessment from Washington. Solana said at Alliance headquarters in Brussels: "The information we have at this very moment, this morning, is that still compliance is not a reality."

Solana said he would probably go to Belgrade on Thursday afternoon or Friday to sign an accord on airborne verification of the settlement worked out by U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke. But he wanted to convey a clear message to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to realize that "the solution is not in signing papers."

On Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said Serbian police were pulling out and access to the refugees for international aid workers to the refugees was "excellent." Solana said the two statements were not contradictory.

NATO ambassadors were expected to receive a fresh assessment of the situation at their Thursday morning Council meeting, but it was not clear whether diplomatic observers in Kosovo had returned in sufficient numbers to provide a solid overview. Most of the Kosovo Diplomatic Observer Mission (KDOM) left Kosovo earlier this week as a precaution against Serb reprisals if NATO should launch air strikes to compel compliance. Most went to Skopje, Macedonia.

Asked about the apparent discrepancy between the U.S. assessment and that of NATO, one senior alliance diplomat said intelligence "takes 48 hours to process ... we can't do any better."

It is primarily NATO which is taking on the task of aerial surveillance of Kosovo, intended to back up 2,000 unarmed "compliance verifiers" on the ground and raise the alarm if there are signs that Milosevic is reverting to a military solution to the separatist crisis.