11/16/98 - 12:00CST
Saddam's Latest "Rope-a-Dope";
Diplomatic Solution Reached at Eleventh Hour
By C. L. Staten, Executive Director and Sr. Analyst
Washington, DC/Baghdad, Iraq (EmergencyNet News) -- As in the past, Saddam Hussein and his military council have again apparently "changed course," at the last minute, in an effort to avert imminent military action by the United States. According to reports from both Washington and Baghdad, Tariq Aziz sent a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan that allows U.N. weapons inspectors access to sites that are suspected as being part of Iraq's covert weapons of mass destruction program.
Although all of the details of the deal are still not clear at this juncture, it would appear that Iraq has agreed in one letter to allow inspectors to resume their work "without conditions," as required by U.N. resolutions and United States demands in recent weeks. According to news reports, however, there was an annex to this "no conditions" letter that essentially demands a lifting of sanctions against Iraq. The annex is being called a "list of Iraqi wishes and desires" by those sympathetic to Iraq and to the lifting of sanctions against them.
At first, American security officials flatly called the Iraqi letter "unacceptable," skeptical of past broken promises by Saddam Hussein, but eventually they were persuaded by U.N. officials and other countries to allow Iraq an opportunity to demonstrate that they were serious about complying with existing U.N. resolutions. Senior American officials, however, cautioned that U.S. military forces would remain in place and that the threat of a "substantial military option" could occur at any time, should Iraq again renege on its most latest assurances.
U.S. national security analysts tell EmergencyNet News that the current situation is "more than vaguely reminiscent" of circumstances surrounding the last showdown with Iraq in February of 1998. In that confrontation, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan reportedly reached a last-minute accord with Saddam Hussein and Iraq that allowed "unlimited" access to U.N. weapons inspectors in exchange for allowing Iraq to sell additional oil reserves. Eight months later, in October/early November, Iraq again forced this most recent crisis by refusing all cooperation with the U.N. inspectors.
One Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) analyst likened Iraq's strategy to that used by former heavy-weight champion Mohhamad Ali, who covered up and lay on the ropes in a championship fight and allowed his opponent to expend all of his energy pummeling his forearms. Similarly, Saddam Hussein seems content to provoke crisis after crisis, causing the United States to spend literally hundreds of millions of dollars each time to counter the threat. Eventually, Hussein hopes that
the United States will become tired of the cost of confrontation, both economically and diplomatically.
ERRI analysts say that "the proof will be in the pudding" in this most recent confrontation and that the United States and the United Nations will only be able to judge Iraq's intentions after weapons inspectors are readmitted to Iraq and actually attempt to inspect sensitive sites that may contain evidence of missiles, or chemical/biological/nuclear weapons. At least one senior analyst said that he would recommend, upon arrival, that U.N. inspectors go immediately to those suspected sites where they have had difficulty gaining access in the past. In doing so, it may be possible to gauge Hussein's sincerity and adherence to this
latest agreement.
U.S. security experts suggest that in the event that recalcitrance or non-compliance is encountered by the inspectors, the military option should then be immediately reinstituted, without additional diplomatic negotiations or other warnings. One must wonder how long the "peace" with Saddam will last this time....
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