ERRI SPECIAL REPORT

ERRI Risk Assessment Services Wednesday, December 16, 1998 2030 EST

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said the United States had no real choice but to strike Iraq in the wake of its refusal to cooperate fully with United Nations weapons inspectors. Reading from a prepared statement, the DefSec said: "This is not a matter of diplomatic nicety or detail."

The strikes were launched as part of what the Pentagon is calling Operation "Desert Fox." Cohen said the air strikes began at 1700 EST. He said they will continue for up to three days although he would not discuss exact time frames for the operation. CBS News was reporting that its sources were telling them that the operation will end on Saturday night.

Cohen said U.S. forces would continue the operation until it hit all of a pre-selected list of targets. U.S. forces will remain in the region after the air strikes have been completed. He said Arab states that have sided with the United States in the past have been alerted that they may be targeted by Iraq.

U.S. Army General Henry Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared at tonight's briefing with Cohen saying that the air strikes were carried out by U.S. Navy fighters from the USS Enterprise, Navy cruise missiles, and both U.S. and British Air Force fighters and bombers. Some reports said the U.S. air strike force also included several B-52s based on the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. But other reports said that the B-52s will be put into action on Thursday.

Shelton said the timing for this strike was right from a purely military standpoint based on the number of available forces in the region.

Cohen said he is ordering additional U.S. forces to the region, including an air expeditionary wing of approximately 36 aircraft including F-117 stealth fighters. Ground troops are also being rushed to the region as is an additional aircraft carrier battle group of more than 20 ships.

U.S. military forces struck now, in part, because of a White House-imposed deadline to hit Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's forces before the Muslim celebration of Ramadan on Saturday.

During the early hours of Thursday in Baghdad, anti-aircraft guns opened fire and orange tracers lighted the sky. The guns let loose volley after volley of shots as U.S. and British officials announced the air strikes. The post-midnight firing came after sirens broke the night's silence and just before Washington announced air strikes on military and security installations.

No attacking planes or missiles were immediately seen over the Iraqi capital, and unlike during previous Western alliance attacks on Baghdad, there was no blackout. Along with the anti-aircraft fire, at least one blast was heard and television pictures showed a huge fiery glow on the horizon.

There had been no immediate reports of casualties, and the streets of Baghdad were nearly empty. The explosions began at 0049 hours Thursday Baghdad time (1649 EST Wednesday). Several fires were reported in Baghdad.

NBC News was reporting that several of Saddam's presidential palaces across Iraq were bombed in Thursday morning's attack. Saddam was scheduled to speak to the Iraqi people on radio at about 2015 EST.

Israel, which endured Iraqi Scud attacks in the 1991 Gulf War, said on Thursday it was not part of a showdown with Baghdad but vowed to defend itself if dragged into the conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's communications chief David Bar-Illan said, "We think that the chances of any attack on Israel by Iraqi missiles as a result of the American attack on Iraq are close to zero but we are prepared for any eventuality and we will take all the measures necessary."

Israeli spokesman Aviv Bushinsky said POTUS had discussed preparations for an attack with Netanyahu just minutes before the U.S. leader flew home from Israel's Ben-Gurion Airport on Tuesday, ending a three-day peace mission. Bushinsky said Netanyahu was informed of the actual attack by White House officials only after it had taken place.

Twice this year the Israeli army opened emergency gas-mask distribution centers -- to guard against any possible chemical attack -- when U.S.-led attacks on Iraq appeared imminent. Officials did not say whether gas mask depots would reopen.

Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai held consultations early on Thursday on the American-British strike. Mordechai's office would not elaborate on the meeting or who was taking part. Wednesday, Mordechai said that Israel was prepared for any possible U.S. military action on Iraq.

Mordechai did not specify what preparations Israel, the target of 39 Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War, had taken as U.S. and British bombers and warships stood ready to strike Iraq.

An army spokesman said, "The Israeli army does not detail its levels of readiness."

It should be noted that France, in a rift among Western allies, dissociated itself on Wednesday from U.S.-led air strikes on Iraq and said they could have grave consequences for the Iraqi people. A statement issued by the French authorities about an hour after the United States and Britain launched a substantial air campaign against Iraq said: "France deplores the escalation which led to the American military strikes against Iraq and the grave human consequences which they could have for the Iraqi people."

France also expressed regret that the Iraqi authorities had not cooperated fully with United Nations weapons inspections. France, Iraq's biggest Western arms supplier in the 1970s and 1980s, fought alongside the United States and Britain in the 1991 Gulf War coalition that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait and it still takes part in enforcing a no-fly zone over southern Iraq.

However, it has opposed military action in recent standoffs over Iraq's obstruction of U.N. inspections to eliminate its weapons of mass destruction and insisted that Baghdad should be offered an end to economic sanctions if it complied fully.

                                                                                       ***

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - According to defense documents declassified by Britain on Wednesday night, weapons of mass destruction were being held at the Ba'ath Party office which the United Nations weapons team were unable to inspect. Number 10 Downing Street released details which suggested the office in Baghdad was being used as a munitions dump, together with a map showing the location of the "concealment."

The document states: "During the last months of 1997, the Iraqi authorities moved sensitive military material by night to a large shed within the compound of the Shu'ba Aadhamiyya offices of the Ba'ath Party in the Aadhamiyya district of Baghdad. The shed is normally used to house military uniforms."

The document also said: "The compound is not guarded by the Ba'ath party as is usually the routine but by members of the Istikhbarat Wazira Al-Dakhiliyya (Ministry of Interior Security and Information Service) who also guard other sensitive sites and prisons."

The intelligence document, which detailed the site, said that the weapons were locked in a basement below a shed behind a thick steel door. It stated: "A Lt Colonel Sardar from the Istikhbarat Wazira Al-Dakhiliyya is in charge of supervising security at the site. The compound can only be reached by a narrow one-lane side road which is the second road on the right as you leave Atna Square heading towards the bridge to Mansur District. The shed within the compound is large and unmistakeable. The source also said that the WMD equipment was hidden in a shed made of bricks and with a flat roof. The WMD material was kept in a cellar below the shed, down approx. six steps and about the same size as the shed itself."

The statement described: "A thick steel door (3 x 3 metres) in the floor of the shed led to the cellar. A special hook was needed to move the door, and this was kept by Lt Colonel Sardar."

The document - headed Ba'ath Party office in AADHAMIYYA used to conceal sensitive military material: Summary of Reports - continued: "The WMD equipment was kept in large wooden boxes, about two metres by two metres by 1.5 metres. The boxes were locked with expensive foreign made locks sealed with red wax, and had something written in a foreign language on them. The source thought that this language was English and believed that there may have been around 10 boxes in total, although he could not commit himself to a number."

ERRI **FLASH** REPORT

ERRI Risk Assessment Services Wednesday, December 16, 1998 1840 EST

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - Pentagon sources have told CBS News that the current attack on Iraq will last until 2130 EST Thursday evening. About 100 cruise missiles will be fired. At 2130 EST, the attack will stop and an assessment will be made.

On Thursday, B-52 bombers will reportedly be used to fire cruise missiles.

The Pentagon has also said that additional aircraft, including F-117 "stealth" fighters will be sent into the region.

Some Past EmergencyNet News Stories on Conflict With Iraq

02/23/98-22:30CST--Summary of Events; Iraq vrs. U.N. Weapons Inspector Crisis - Jan. 1, 1998 to Feb. 23,
1998 (large file-91K)

02/10/98-09:00CST--The WMD/Terrorist Threat From Iraq

02/05/98-09:00CST--Saddam Should Expect "Robust" Bombing Attack From The U.S.

11/24/97-10:00CST--"HEAD'S UP;" The Iraqi Crisis Originated in Moscow??

11/18/97-11:30CST--Emergencynet News; Summary of Events-U.N. Crisis with Iraq-11/13/97 to 11/18/97

11/12/97-10:00CST--EmergencyNet News Summary of Crisis Events-U.N. Weapons Inspections in
Iraq-11/08/97 to 11/12/97

The Personal History of Saddam Hussein

(C) Copyright, Emergency Response & Research Institute and EmergencyNet News, 1998. All rights reserved. May not be reproduced or redistributed without permission.