The Changing Face of Iran; Is anything Really Different in Tehran?? - 12/10/97
ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, December 8, 1997 Vol. 3 - 342
IRAN TRIES TO CHANGE ITS IMAGE
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
Iran's attempts to export its revolution once terrified conservative Arab leaders. Many of them will be welcomed in Tehran on Tuesday for an Islamic summit that Iran hopes will prove the failure of a prolonged U.S. drive to isolate the Islamic republic.
One Arab political analyst said, "If Iran today was like the Iran of several years ago, it would have been very difficult to host a successful conference with a high level of attendance. The timing of this one is very providential for Iran."
The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) summit is set to be the most prestigious international gathering to take place in Iran since the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah. According to analysts, Iran can cash in on the deep frustration felt by Arabs and Moslems at the hardline policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and what they see as Washington's failure to pursue a balanced strategy in Middle East peacemaking.
Diaa Rachwan of the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo said, "The peace process is already destroyed. Public opinion in the Arab world and Middle East is that the United States as well as Israel is responsible."
Rachwan said this perception was hobbling Washington's attempts to win regional support for treating Iran as a pariah state for its alleged sponsorship of terrorism.
ERRI analysts recently reviewed the growing Arab perception that the U.S. is not doing enough or is siding too much with Israel in the peace process. They concluded that this perception is being driven by a highly effective propaganda campaign that is being waged in the Arab media.
Arab Sunni Moslems in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, long hostile to revolutionary Iran, shunned last month's U.S.-backed economic regional conference that Israel attended in Qatar. Both will show up in Tehran, although not at head of state level.
Under former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and his successor President Mohammad Khatami, Iran has distanced itself from overt support for armed Moslem militants now challenging Arab governments in Algeria, Egypt and elsewhere.
It has also been trying to reassure suspicious Gulf monarchies, such as the United Arab Emirates, which has a territorial dispute with Iran, and Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have significant and sometimes restive Shi'ite communities.
Asef Bayat, an Iranian academic at the American University in Cairo, said, "The new Khatemi-led government is trying to appear not to be threatening, to convince the smaller Gulf states they'd be better off having good relations with Iran."
Iran still overtly backs the Hizbollah guerrillas who are fighting the Israelis in south Lebanon and lends at least moral backing to the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement.
Egypt appears to be interested in an accommodation with Iran, despite bitter past differences over Egypt's 1979 peace treaty with Israel and the friendship between former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat and the Shah, who was buried in Cairo. Obstacles to normal relations remain.
Egypt has in the past accused Iran of backing Egyptian militants waging a five-year-old struggle for a purist Islamic state, but did not repeat those charges after last month's massacre of tourists in Luxor, which Iran did condemn. Egypt, lately, turned its ire on the United Kingdom for sheltering Islamist activists and so-called Afghan Arabs said to be based in parts of Afghanistan under the control of the Taleban -- Sunni zealots condemned by Iran for giving Islam a bad name.
Rachwan said Iran's influence over Sunni militants beyond its borders had always been limited and it now saw little to gain from backing violent and often fragmented Islamist groups. Rachwan said, "With the exception of Hizbollah, it has become very complicated for Islamist groups in the Arab world to be cards in Iranian foreign policy."
Hizbollah itself has changed its tactics. It is uncertain if it was prodded by Iran or of if it did it on its own accord. Hizbollah is now focusing on political and social activity in Lebanon, as well as the anti-Israeli struggle in the south. The hostage-taking and hijackings of the 1980s, long officially disavowed by Hizbollah, seem to have been discarded.
ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Tuesday, December 9, 1997 Vol. 3 - 343
CONFLICTING MESSAGES COME OUT
OF TEHRAN
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
Nations is the Western part of the world are said to be viewing the prospect of Iran taking on the leadership of the Islamic world at a Tehran summit this week with a mixture of unease and foreboding. While the United States is determined to go on trying to isolate and punish Iran's Islamic rulers until they change their behavior, European countries still prefer to encourage and reward Tehran where it moderates its international actions.
For the United States, the contrast between the expected turnout of three kings and 27 presidents at the summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the nearly deserted ranks at a U.S.-sponsored Middle East economic conference in Qatar last month is deeply embarrassing.
Philip Gordon, senior fellow on U.S. policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, "The United States is obviously not happy. It's a real slap in the face that our Arab and Moslem allies aren't joining us in isolating Iran."
U.S. diplomats fear Iran will set an anti-American, anti-Western tone at the summit. Washington's two staunchest Arab allies, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, boycotted the Doha conference in protest at perceived Israeli intransigence in Middle East peace talks. But Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa are both expected to attend the Tehran summit, by far the biggest diplomatic gathering in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
What is particularly galling for the United States is to watch Iran mending fences with conservative Arab monarchies in the Gulf. No matter what the think-tanks or oil companies may say, there is no public support for a thaw with the ayatollahs in Tehran who still remain in American memories by the hostage-taking of U.S. diplomats in 1979. Thus, there will be no change in U.S. policy toward Iran.
Patrick Clawson of the National Defence University said the prevailing view in Washington was that the election of Islamic moderate Mohammad Khatami as president in May against the conservative establishment candidate had changed almost nothing.
Clawson said, "Khatami seems to be a distant third in the hierarchy. His role seems largely confined to opening schools."
Washington maintains that there are five charges against Iranian authorities, which it continues to describe as a "rogue regime." Those charges are: financing and organizing "terrorists," seeking weapons of mass destruction, a conventional arms buildup, attempting to sabotage the Arab-Israeli peace process and violating human rights.
While European governments agree with much of that indictment, they also see glimmers of change in Iran and believe Khatami deserves cautious encouragement to pursue a more cooperative foreign policy. The European policy is driven by dreams of business opportunities to invest in the oil- and gas-producing state with a potential market of 65 million consumers.
Professor Michael Stuermer, director of Germany's Political Science Foundation and an adviser to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, said, "What happened earlier this year in Iran looks to many European analysts like a second revolution. It was a vote for change, perhaps a turnaround, when two-thirds of the electorate voted for a more open society and a more hopeful way of life. In sharp contrast to the United States, the Europeans have pursued a pragmatic line. They are not ... out for monsters to destroy. They refuse to see Iran as part of a global Islamist conspiracy."
ERRI analysts agree with the first part of Professor Stuermer's statement. The election of Khatami this year by the Iranian public was indeed a vote for change. However, Khatemi has not shown that he has any real power to impose any real change in Iranian policies. ERRI analysts strongly disagree with the rest of Stuermer's assessment. The actions and policies of the Iranian regime for the past twenty years has clearly shown their intentions. It is a criminal regime pure and simple. If there is no conspiracy, why does Iran pursue the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction?
If it does not have any designs to export its Islamic revolution, why has it sponsored international terrorism? Members of the Iranian government were implicated in a terrorist act in Germany, itself, this past year.
The European line of dialogue has been anything but pragmatic. It borders on fantasy. The actions of the Iranian government have softened in the last few months -- but perhaps that was so to put on a good face for this conference. But past actions for many years have clearly shown what kind of people rule Iran. And the Europeans refuse to believe this because they have visions of dollar signs dancing before their eyes.
According to Stuermer, to avoid a serious "West-West" conflict, the West must adopt a more sophisticated Iran policy combining deterrence and détente similar to its approach to the former Soviet Union.
While that may sound good -- the United States really doesn't want the situation to reach that point. Do we really want to deal with Iran as a nuclear power?
ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, December 10, 1997 Vol. 3 - 344
AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI PROVES
ERRI'S POINTS
Op-Ed by Steve Macko, EmergencyNet News Managing Editor
Clark Staten, ERRI Executive Director
Supreme Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the real power in Iran, took center stage before leaders of Moslem states on Tuesday to deliver his usual tirade against the West in general, and the United States and Israel in particular, accusing them of a cultural and military invasion of the Islamic world. The ayatollah opened a world Islamic summit with a blistering attack on the West and called it materialistic, money-seeking, gluttonous and carnal.
According to Khamenei, "Sincerity, truthfulness, altruism and self- sacrifice have been replaced in many parts of the world by deception, conspiracy, avarice, jealousy and other indecent features."
The Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute has, in the past, been criticized for its hardline views toward the Iranian regime. We have been called "alarmists" and that our view of Iran wanting to expand and export its "Islamic revolution" to other countries in the Middle East is xenophobic and just plain incorrect.
Well, one only has to analyze the comments from "supreme leader" Khamenei, who is the real driving force behind Iranian policies, on Tuesday and see what Iran really thinks and what it wants to obtain.
According to the ayatollah: "Most nations are deprived of scientific progress while a group have used their science and knowledge as a means to mete out oppression on others..."
What is he really saying here? What he's really complaining about is that, in his opinion, the United States has no right to stick its nose in and attempt to frustrate Iran or any other country's right to acquire weapons of mass destruction. What other scientific progress could he possibly be talking about? Iran wants weapons of mass destruction to level the playing field so that the U.S. can't threaten Iran if it gets out of line ... that's the oppression he speaks of.
Here's another bit of wisdom from Khamenei: "Western liberalism, communism, socialism and all other - isms have gone through their tests and proved their debility. As in the past, so today, Islam is the only remedial, curative and savior angel."
Islam is a great religion, there is doubt about that. No one here at ERRI, contrary to any Islamic extremist view, is disputing that fact. We mean to cast no dispersions on one of the world's great religions. However, from the viewpoint of people who monitor world events on a daily basis -- we are sorry to say that unless certain problems -- in particular the violence that is committed in the name of Islam -- is addressed by its leaders, such as those who are now attending the conference in Tehran, those words of "remedial," "curative" and savior angel" do not quite ring true.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah touched upon this point in his speech to the conference. He said the world was witnessing an Islamic revival but Islamic militancy showed the Moslem community needed to put its house in order.
The Crown Prince said: "The Moslem world is still suffering from a state of fragmentation and disruption and is going through the worst as a result of extensive militancy which has shed innocent Moslem blood in the name of Islam. The slogans raised by these militants are outrageous and have nothing in common with Islam and its spirit of justice and tolerance."
But more important, is Khamenei really saying here that, in his opinion, the Islamic revolution must be exported in order to reach the end objectives to be gained by the regime in Tehran? It is very close to what the Soviets used to say of what had to be obtained in order to achieve world communism. Everyone had to be a true communist in order to reach the utopian society that they envisioned.
We also got the usual anti-Israeli rhetoric from the ayatollah: "The Zionists, the notorious global Zionist media and the agents of arrogance, in particular the Americans -- namely those who have sustained the greatest losses due to the Iranian revolution -- have been and are most active and vocal in slandering the Islamic republic."
He doesn't like it when ERRI explains his game plan to world. Sort of wrecks his plans, don't you see?
Khamenei, who is really his own worst enemy, also denounced the U.S.- brokered Arab-Israeli peace process as "unjust, arrogant, contemptuous and, finally, illogical" and a "losing transaction" for the Palestinians.
He said, with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat in attendance: "This imposed principle of peace for land means that the Zionists would return the lands of all neighboring countries provided that we accept that Palestine belongs to them. What could be more unjust than these words?"
The Iranian supreme leader called on the Islamic world to form a united front and seize the initiative to "retrieve the rights of the Palestinian people."
Now, how can what he called for be attained? Should we think that he is calling for an increased diplomatic effort? Based on his past rhetoric, in which he has never called for any diplomatic resolution, and Iran's backing of terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and others--what is he really saying about how the rights of the Palestinan people and how they should be retrieved? He is actually advocating the destruction of Israel.
This is the kind of person who wields the most power in Iran.
Yes, Khamenei can paint and spruce up Tehran all he wants. He can be a real good host to the people who are attending the conference. Certainly some will even believe that reform and moderation has occurred in Iran. But Americans have a news saying that was first coined by CBS newsman Dan Rather in a court case: "If it looks like a duck, if it quacks like a duck and if it walks like a duck ... then it's a duck!"
My version and ERRI's view of the situation only replaces the word "duck" with the word "terrorist."
The ayatollah's words clearly show what he is and what he wants to attain. But the French, Russians, Germans, and others seem to only see the dollar signs dancing in front of their eyes. The Europeans need to understand with whom and what they are dealing. One thing is sure, Khamenei is not King Hussein of Jordan, nor any other personage who can be expected to accept reasonable and speedy compromise in resolving issues between Islam and the West.
(c) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1997. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Corporate Security/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military/Crisis Management and National Security issues.
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