Tension Increase in Ireland Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, January 1, 1998 New Year's Day Vol. 4 - 001
Tension Increase in Ireland
BELFAST (EmergencyNet News) - Northern Ireland faces new tension on Thursday. Suspected Protestant extremists shot and killed a man during a New Year's Eve attack on a pub in a Belfast Roman Catholic zone. Four other men suffered wounds and a fifth was also hurt but his injuries were not specified. Police say the attack has the hallmarks of a sectarian shooting. The raid followed fears that pro-British guerrillas would target Catholic nationalists in reprisal for the assassination of a Protestant militia leader, Billy Wright, who was buried Tuesday. No group admitted the pub attack but security analysts feel it was the work of Protestant gunmen.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Saturday, January 3, 1998 Vol. 4 - 003
Heightened Alert in N. Ireland
BELFAST (EmergencyNet News) - Security forces in Northern Ireland are on heightened alert following a recent series of sectarian murders in the troubled British province this past week. British army patrols during the daytime have now been resumed.
Royal Ulster Constabulary Chief Constable Ronnie Flanagan said the number of police patrols would be "increased significantly" in light of the worsening security situation.
The Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) has claimed responsibility for the New Year's Eve murder of a 31-year-old man at a pub and is warning that it plans to commit more killings in the near future.
In a statement that was issued on New Year's Day, the LVF said the shooting murder at the pub had been carried out by its "West Belfast Brigade in retaliation for the death of loyalist, Billy Wright."'
Excerpted From: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, January 5, 1997 Vol. 4 -- 005
ERRI ISSUES TERRORISM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN IRELAND AND IRELAND
From the ERRI Watch Center
CHICAGO (EmergencyNet News) - Numerous reports regarding the serious situation that has arisen in Northern Ireland this past week has prompted the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute to issue a Terrorism Advisory for the troubled British province, as well as the Republic of Ireland.
According to a series of reports in the Sunday Times of London, the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) has threatened to launch a wide-scale terrorist offensive against the Republic of Ireland, including no-warning bomb and gun attacks, if the Irish government does not withdraw from the Stormont peace talks.
Security sources in Northern Ireland are saying that they are taking the threat seriously and they believe that the terrorist group has the capacity to mount a sustained campaign of violence.
Counterterrorism experts say that the LVF has attracted a large number of disenchanted members of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), which expelled and threatened to kill Billy Wright, the LVF leader who was shot and killed by a member of the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) in the Maze prison just after Christmas.
British security sources also believe that the LVF is receiving assistance from the Ulster Defense Association (UDA), which is the largest loyalist terror group. The UDA often uses the cover name of Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF).
In an interview with The Sunday Times, the LVF said it planned to "bring the war to the republic" unless the Irish government dropped the republic's constitutional claim over Northern Ireland, stopped pressing for cross- border bodies with executive powers and withdrew its officials from the Stormont talks and the Anglo-Irish secretariat at Maryfield.
An LVF spokesman told The Sunday Times: "If Dublin does that the LVF will have no quarrel with it. If it does not, the LVF intends bringing the war to the Irish government and the Irish people. It will hit the republic where it hurts most - its economy - and the general public will also pay a heavy price. The loyalist people have suffered long enough because of interference from their government. There could be a return to the kind of violence it witnessed in Dublin and Monaghan in 1974. People should not doubt our ability to carry out large scale gun and bomb attacks."
The LVF spokesman said the terrorist group also planned to escalate random attacks on the nationalist community in Northern Ireland because it believed this would put pressure on the IRA and other republican groups to stop attacking loyalists.
According to The Sunday Times, security sources on both sides of the border say they believe the LVF may try to derail the political talks by trying their hand at a mass murder attack in border towns such as Dundalk and Monaghan.
"The signs are that they want to mark the death of Billy Wright with a major atrocity that will be remembered as a memorial to his name," said one security official. He added, "Their ideal would be to assassinate a leading republican, but if that proves too difficult, they will go for a high body count."
Counterterrorism experts say they fear that an escalation of violence by the LVF will lead to reprisals by the INLA, which warned of "immediate and terrible" retaliation if Catholics were murdered in revenge for the killing of Wright.
There are also reports that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) is preparing to break its ceasefire by carrying out attacks under the cover name of the Catholic Reaction Force, which last week announced that it was reforming and warned that it would kill five Protestants for every Catholic that is killed by the LVF.
Loyalist sources say the UDA and UVF would have no alternative but to return to violence if the loyalist community came under sustained attack. There is already pressure within militant loyalist organizations for an ending of the ceasefire.
ERRI counterterrorism analysts say that it looks like the water is coming to a boil in Northern Ireland and fear it could all explode ... and soon.
(c) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.
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