Excerpted from ENN Daily Report
9/12/96 14:00CDT - Vol. 2, No. 256

Tensions Continue to Increase Over Iraq Incidents
By Steve Macko, ENN Editor

WASHINGTON (ENN) - U.S. warplanes were fired upon by Iraqi forces in northern Iraq on Wednesday. Tensions between Washington and Baghdad continued to rise when an Iraqi MiG-25 jet and a military helicopter flew in the southern "no-fly" zone during the day. No immediate action was taken by U.S forces to the defiance. On Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon said that if U.S. planes were threatened "we will take action."

Pentagon officials said that in the first incident, that occurred in northwestern Iraq, a SAM-6 surface-to-air missile was fired at two U.S. F-16 fighter jets. The missile missed the planes. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said, "Our fighters which were in the area could not return fire at the SAM site because the Iraqi radars were turned off very quickly."
The incident happened at 0358 EDT (0758 GMT), near Gir Pahn, which is located midway between the cities of Mosul and Zakho in northwestern Iraq. One senior Pentagon official said that the missile was "errant" and suggested that the radar was not on long enough to provide for an accurate shot.

U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry was noticeably angry about the Iraqi attack on the U.S. warplanes. He spoke a bit more bluntly than he normally does and said that Iraq would soon learn that Washington was "not playing games" and that any attack launched against U.S. warplanes would draw a "disproportionate" response from the United States.

The Pentagon said that B-52 bombers have been moved from Guam in the Pacific Ocean to the British air base on the island of Diego Garcia, which is located in the Indian Ocean. One Defense Department source indicated that eight F-117A stealth fighter/ bombers had been dispatched to Kuwait.

Secretary Perry told reporters on Wednesday, "In Iraq, air defense crews are playing some kind of a game and they will very soon learn that we are not playing games. The responses that we will make ... will be disproportionate with the provocations which are made against us."

Perry said that the Iraqis fired a "wild shot" and "only had their radar turned on for a few seconds." Said the SecDef, that was a wise decision on the behalf of the Iraqis who fired the missile, otherwise "They would have had an anti-radiation missile down their throats."

ERRI analysts believe that confidence is high that another U.S. attack on Iraq will probably take place shortly. However, this may be exactly what Saddam Hussein wants. These were direct provocations in order to get the U.S. to retaliate. Saddam's game plan may be for the U.S. to attack in response to the provocations. After another U.S. attack, there will probably be more disapproval from the world community and he may hope to start driving a wedge into the U.S.-led coalition. With that out of the way, he may be able to regain total control of Iraq, once again.

Hitting these "strategic" targets in southern Iraq with more cruise missiles will not stop the provocations from Saddam Hussein. What will be needed to send him back "underground," if you will, will be a strong attack against targets that he cares about. i.e. his many palaces across the country, intelligence and defense headquarters, monuments in Baghdad, or the Baghdad power grid. It is necessary to make Saddam feel some pain -- otherwise he is just going to continue to provoke the U.S., probably up until election time, at the very least.


ENN 9/11/96 23:30

An Excerpted ARAB VIEW of the United States' Attacks on Iraq

SADDAM BECOMES HERO OF THE ARAB WORLD??

CHICAGO (ENN) - There is no question that in the Arab media Israel has become an integral component of the war hysteria resulting from the conflict between Baghdad and Washington. Almost all Arab newspapers, particularly in Syria and Egypt (countries whose armies were once members of the anti-Iraqi coalition) have now turned Saddam Hussein into the contemporary hero of the Arab world. Some went so far as to crown him the new Nasser, on his way to coalescing the prevailing manifestations of pan-Arab passion.

In Egypt, capital of the Arab world, and in other Arab countries, government television stations began to broadcast selected clips from the Nasser period. There is a rising tide of popular anti-Western sentiment. To this must be added the glaring headlines which claimed, quoting the London Times, that Israel had issued a warning to Iraq not to attack it. Baghdad has already retorted in the Arab press that Israel was collaborating with Washington in the planning of American military action against Iraq.

Saddam's popularity is gaining momentum so quickly that Iran, which previously had an interest in the weakening of the Iraqi regime, has now announced its readiness to return Iraqi warplanes seized during the Gulf war. This would be Teheran's contribution to Saddam's effort to chip away at the US's deterrence posture in the region.

An incisive reading of the Arab press reveals that Iraq has concluded that the tables have turned; indeed, with the exception of Kuwait, all the Arab countries in the former anti-Saddam coalition now lend their support to the anti-American front led by Baghdad. Since this morning, the latter is expressing an explicit linkage between the US administration and its ally in the region, Israel. All of this is designed to raise the frenzy in the Arab world to its crescendo, and with it support for Saddam.

Commentators across the region posited that Saddam has succeeded in restoring pride to the Muslims, and that, historically speaking, this is the start of an Islamic wave that will purge the entire area.

ARAFAT CEMENTS BONDS WITH SADDAM

Among the Palestinians as well, Saddam is being portrayed as a great leader; there are reports that his ally from the Gulf war, PLO chief Yasir Arafat, has already renewed his contacts with Iraq, talking this weekend with Saddam by telephone from Cairo.

IRAN BLASTS ARAFAT

The Iranian media has remained fairly quiet concerning events in the Persian Gulf, instead being satisfied with the general statement that during American election campaigns, the administration always seeks a scapegoat on whose back it can ride into another four years in the White House. In discussing Yasir Arafat, the Teheran Times called on the Palestinians to rid themselves of their leader, and to replace him with a forthright Muslim leader who would concern himself with the interests of the Palestinian people. The paper cast aspersions on Arafat's integrity and reliability, citing recent reports in the West alleging that Arafat is holding bank accounts in Europe while he declares that his people do not have a morsel of food. In a scathing historical review of Arafat's leadership, Teheran Times concluded that Arafat is motivated by personal interest and greed, and that the time has come to replace him with a religious individual who would lead the Palestinians into the new era of Islam.

ERRI Commentary on these developments:
By: Clark Staten, Senior Analyst

The old saying "my enemy's enemy must be my friend" may be applicable in regard to the Iranian view of the current conflict between the United States and Iraq. And, besides, the Iranians would benefit and be happy, regardless of who "loses". It would appear that Iran is using the current situation in Iraq as a propaganda tool and that they view it as a major "present" from the USA.

They are presently protraying themselves as "humanitarian protectors" of the Islamic Kurds, who are fleeing an onslaught by KDP and Iraqi intelligence forces. Secondarily, they wish for Iraq to give the United States as many "black eyes" as possible, to appear as impotent as possible, and ultimately split the former anti-Iraqi coilition into factions they can later exploit. And finally, they are attempting to undermine and repudiate Yasir Arafat and assume both political and religious leadership of the PLO, in particular, and all Palestinian groups, in general.

It should also be noted that at least some of this chaos is also a very pointed attempt at ending the Israeli/PLO peace accord, which a number of Islamic powers will go to great lengths to destroy. Outlook?? Continued exploitation of the media by use of "information processing and disinformation campaigns, both from Iran and Iraq can be expected. Other threats, including terrorism directed against the United States or Israel, may become evident in the coming days. It would appear likely that the situation surrounding Iraq could excalate soon.

(Thanks to Alijandra Mogliner for research assistance with this analysis.)

(C) EmergencyNet News Service, 1996. All rights reserved; contact ENN for permission to reproduce.

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