BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Minor damage was reported after a rocket-propelled grenade was fired at the offices of the United Nations weapons inspectors in Baghdad. One unarmed grenade struck the building Friday night and did not explode. No one was injured in the attack. It was also not certain who was behind the attack. The attack was the second on U.N. offices in Baghdad in three months.

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Iraq carried through on its threat Tuesday, preventing an American-led weapons inspection team from doing its work and defying the United Nations. Iraqi authorities said Monday they would bar the team led by Scott Ritter from working, accusing it of having too many Americans and of prolonging the arms inspection program. Three carloads of other inspectors left the headquarters of the U.N. Special Commission to visit sites, but Ritter wasn't among them. The Iraqis did not provide the American and his team with escorts, which are needed for inspectors to get past security guards at suspected weapons sites.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Iraq has effectively blocked an American-led U.N. weapons inspection team from doing its work. For a second day, Iraq failed to provide Scott Ritter and his team with the escorts needed to make their rounds. Other U.N. weapons inspection teams went out as scheduled. Iraq used the same bureaucratic ploy Tuesday to prevent the U.S.-led arms inspection team from doing its job.

ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Friday, January 16, 1998 Vol. 4 - 016

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - The American weapons inspector whom Iraq had accused of being a spy has left Baghdad. The withdrawal by American team leader Scott Ritter and the other 15 members of the inspection team ends a standoff with Iraqi officials who had refused to let the team work. Iraqi officials said the team included too many Americans and Britons. Other U.N. teams have continued their tasks. U.N. officials say the team had planned to leave Iraq anyway and insisted the departure was not a surrender to Iraqi pressure.

ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Saturday, January 17, 1998 Vol. 4 - 017

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Iraq will cease cooperating with U.N. weapons inspectors if tough economic sanctions aren't lifted, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein threatens. Saddam made the comments during a speech marking the seventh anniversary of the Persian Gulf War. He said he would follow the recommendation of the National Assembly if the sanctions aren't lifted. The national assembly has recommended Saddam suspend cooperation with U.N. weapons inspectors if they don't finish their disarmament activities in Iraq within six months of 20 November.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

Source: Washington Post - 01/24/98

Decision To Strike Iraq Nears  - Clinton Advisers Believe Only Bombing Can Force Compliance With U.N.

By John F. Harris and John M. Goshko - Washington Post Staff Writers

Saturday, January 24, 1998; Page A01

"President Clinton and his senior national security advisers have concluded that a military strike against Iraq is likely within a few weeks unless Iraqi President Saddam Hussein stops interfering with the work of U.N. weapons inspectors, according to highly placed U.S officials.

After months of pursuing a series of diplomatic initiatives in the showdown with Iraq, a consensus among senior Clinton advisers emerged during hours of intensive White House meetings in recent days that military action will be necessary to force Iraq's compliance with United Nations resolutions, according to senior administration officials and others who have spoken with top U.S. policymakers."

 [ERRI editorial comment on the above Washington Post Report:

Although ERRI has been in favor of strong military action against Iraq, unilaterally by the United States if necessary, the similarities between the current situation in Washington and that in a popular movie entitled "Wag the Dog" are all too striking at this time. Even if some "inside-the-beltway spin-meisters" believe that an American military strike on Iraq, now, will divert citizen attention from current political and ethical allegations involving our nation's leader, that belief is too cynical and transparent even for words.

Both the American public and the International community will see right through any such an attempt at diversion, and it could easily result in a further deterioration of public confidence in one of our country's leading institutions. Further, enemies of the United States can be expected to utilize any such military move as the basis for a major propaganda campaign that will also negatively impact America's foreign policy and future image in the world.

MILITARY NEWS

UNITED STATES

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. Defense Department Kenneth Bacon said on Tuesday that the Pentagon is looking to improve its capability to defend its 24,400 troops in the Persian Gulf region against chemical and biological attack should the standoff with Iraq turn to military action.

Bacon said that should Iraq try to hit U.S. or allied forces with chemical or biological weapons, the U.S. response would be "decisive and devastating."

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - In a statement issued by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) on Thursday, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein warned the United States against attacking his country and said Iraqis would resist any "aggression."

Saddam was quoted as saying: "If the devil pushes these enemies into evil and aggression and they attack us, we will be forced to fight them with all our capabilities."

By Paul Anderson, ERRI Analyst

JERUSALEM (EmergencyNet News) - In Anticipation a U.S. military strike against Iraq, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly asked U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright for several days' advance warning of any bombing and immediate defensive measures against an Iraqi biological attack.

According to officials in both countries, Albright, in turn, tried to ascertain Israeli intentions on the manner and scale of its reprisal should Iraq respond to U.S. bombing with a counterattack against Israel.

U.S. officials are said to have asked that Israel forgo retaliation in case of an Iraqi attack. The president's foreign policy advisers reportedly do not wish to be seen as depriving a close ally of its right to self- defense, but are worried that Israeli involvement in an exchange of fire would create an Arab-Israeli conflict that would overshadow any perception of a united international community against Iraq.

Israel, in an effort to alert its forces and prepare operational plans, is asking the U.S. for two or three days of warning before the United States launches any air attack on Iraq. Israeli and U.S. officials said they believe Iraq is unlikely to attack Israel this time because they believe it has very few Scud missiles left and would want to reserve them for the most dire circumstances.

There are already direct communication links in place for secure voice and data transmissions between the U.S. Joint Staff's operations directorate and its Israeli counterpart.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

MILITARY NEWS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA (EmergencyNet News) - Middle East intelligence sources are saying that Saudi leaders are concerned that sentiment for the Iraqi people is so strong in the kingdom that a sustained U.S. bombing campaign could provoke a fierce anti-Western backlash. It is that fear that is behind the reluctance of the Saudis to offer more support to the United States.

One intelligence source said, "For the first day of an air bombardment, everything will be quiet. And maybe the second day, too. But the Saudis and other Arab governments have serious concerns that there may be massive demonstrations of popular support for Saddam if the air attack is a long and sustained one."

Intelligence and Arab diplomatic sources said most of the Gulf states, Egypt and Syria are opposed to any sustained U.S. bombardment of Iraq. Apart from Kuwait and Bahrain, only Great Britain has so far thrown its unconditional support behind the United States.

The Saudi press has not held back in their editorials saying that they would prefer to see the United States assassinate Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The Saudi press, which usually reflects official views, strongly opposes air strikes that could cause civilian casualties in Iraq. Recent articles argue that the United States should try to "surgically" kill Saddam himself.

The Al-Riyadh newspaper asked: "Why don't they (U.S.) consider getting rid of President Saddam Hussein through means that will cost the Iraqi people the least in terms of suffering? Instead of deploying an armada of warships and aircraft carriers in the Gulf, why don't the Americans do to Saddam what they did with former Panamanian President Manuel Noriega or what the Russians did with Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev?"

The paper added that Saddam "is not an impossible target."

According to intelligence and diplomatic sources, the Saudis and other traditionally pro-American governments in the region believe that popular frustration at and distrust of U.S. policies is at dangerously high levels in their countries. They said the United States was perceived as being tough on Arabs but unwilling to pressure Israel to carry out its obligations toward the Palestinians in the moribund peace process.

The intelligence sources added that Saudis are also said to be alarmed by an emerging U.S.-Turkish-Israeli alliance.

Jane's Defense Weekly said that a recent study found an "evolving Iran- Syria-Egypt-Saudi axis" that was emerging to counter the Tel Aviv-Ankara relationship.

http://www.emergency.com/iraq0298.htm

WORLDWIDE

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - On the 5 February, the U.S. Department of State issued the following worldwide Caution - Public Announcement:

"The Government of Iraq continues to defy the international community by refusing United Nations representatives full access to inspect and verify Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs. In response, the United States has dispatched military forces to the Middle East. While diplomatic options have not been exhausted, the Government of Iraq continues to make provocative and confrontational statements indicating its unwillingness to comply with UN resolutions.

U.S. citizens traveling or residing abroad are advised to exercise greater than usual caution. The Travel Warning of June 25, 1997 advising Americans against travel to Iraq remains in effect.

While at this time we know of no specific threats to U.S. citizens or interests overseas in relation to the present situation in Iraq, we cannot discount the possibility of random acts of anti-American violence. U.S. diplomatic posts worldwide are taking appropriate security precautions. U.S. citizens planning to travel abroad should consult the Department of State's Public Announcements, Travel Warnings, Consular Information Sheets and regional travel brochures, and refer to the Department's advisories on security awareness overseas. American citizens residing or traveling abroad are encouraged to contact the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate for up-to-date information on security conditions.

This Public Announcement expires April 30, 1998."

http://www.emergency.com/chembio9.htm

*****

ASIA AND PACIFIC

By Jeremy Zakis, ERRI Asia and Pacific Desk

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA (EmergencyNet News) - Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Australian armed forces will contribute to any U.S.- led military operation against Iraq if the current standoff cannot be solved diplomatically. Howard emphasized at a press conference Tuesday, if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is allowed to further develop weapons of mass destruction, it not only poses a threat to neighboring countries but also would tempt other countries to develop a powerful arsenal.

"There is a world security issue involved in this. That is why Australia has indicated a willingness -- if diplomatic solutions and approaches fail -- to join the United States-led effort," Howard said.

U.S. President Bill Clinton contacted Howard by phone Saturday to ask if Australia would be willing to participate in a military operation. After consulting the cabinet, Howard said Australia's contribution would be comprised of about 250 special force personnel, including a detachment of the Special Air Service for search-and-rescue operations, two Boeing 707 aircraft for refueling purposes and some intelligence and medical specialists.

"There has been very strong support within Australia," he added.

Howard's decision makes Australia the fourth nation to publicly pledge support for an attack against Iraq. Britain, Germany and Canada have also supported the possible military action. Prime Minister Howard emphasized however, that he preferred a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

During the 1991 Gulf War, Australia-U.S. joint spy bases in the remote Australian outback played a key role by allowing troops to eavesdrop on Iraqi communications and help locate targets within the Arab nation. During that conflict, Australia also provided two warships and a supply ship as part of the international force against Iraq.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Iraqi newspapers said on Thursday that U.S. threats -- like sending more troops to the Gulf or trying to recruit countries to join an attack against Iraq -- will not change Iraq's stand on United Nations weapons inspections. The comment in the ruling Baath Party newspaper Al-Thawra came a day after the U.S. and Britain dismissed an Iraqi proposal to open eight presidential complexes for 60 days to new weapons inspectors selected by the U.N. secretary-general. Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz, said in a CNN interview on Wednesday night that the standoff "might lead to a war." But Britain said on Thursday that an attack on Iraq was "not inevitable" and that diplomacy, backed up by military threat, was working.

*****

AMMAN (EmergencyNet News) - The British Embassy said on Wednesday that Jordanian police were able to prevent a man from throwing a petrol bomb at the British Embassy compound in Amman to protest against London's role in the Iraqi crisis.

A British Embassy spokesman said, "There was an incident at 1000 local time when a youth who was attempting to demonstrate outside the embassy walls tried to throw a petrol bomb, but Jordanian police guarding the embassy foiled the attempt and he was arrested."

British Security sources said that UK embassies have been put on a state of alert and security of key government installations and potential Western targets had been increased against possible attacks.

A Jordanian security official said the fortress-like U.S. Embassy located in the same area as the British mission has also reinforced its own internal security. Other Western embassies have also taken precautions.

The British Embassy has advised its citizens in Jordan to take extra security precautions.

LEAD FOCUS

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - According to sources cited in Thursday's edition of the Washington Post, U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq last fall found what they considered to be highly unsettling evidence of a 1995 agreement by the Russian government to sell Iraq sophisticated fermentation equipment that could be used to develop biological weapons. The confidential document was prepared by Iraqi officials and was discovered by a United Nations inspection team at a government ministry. The document reportedly described lengthy negotiations between the two countries that led to a deal worth millions of dollars. The notes found, according to the Post, included discussions that took place about six months after Iraq's purchase of other biological materials. The information that was found aroused suspicion that Iraq was concealing an immense biological warfare program.

The Russian government has not replied to a United Nations request made six weeks ago for information about the deal, which included a 5,000-liter fermentation vessel that could be used to make protein for animal feed. As a result, the U.N. inspectors are uncertain if Iraq received the equipment. The transaction would have violated a U.N.-authorized embargo on sales to Iraq of such sensitive materials.

The evidence of such an illicit deal is just one element of the appearance of a close collaboration between Moscow and Baghdad on matters of interest to the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq. According to sources cited by the Post, U.S. intelligence agencies have privately warned U.N. officials that Russian intelligence agents are spying on the commission and its personnel in New York and overseas. As has been reported by ERRI in the past, they have further warned that the Russian intelligence, which was formerly headed by current Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, may have passed some of the information it collects directly to Iraq. A warning that ERRI analysts have regularly voiced.

According to the Post, several U.S. officials confirmed on Wednesday that the FBI is aware of the Russian intelligence operation. Many diplomats and U.S. officials are voicing concern that Russia's recent diplomatic drive to help Iraq constrain future U.N. inspections may be motivated by more than a desire to help head off a U.S. military strike and is designed to gain favor with Iraq or develop new influence in the Middle East.

One unnamed diplomat told the Post: "People are suspicious that there really is some reason they don't want us to find stuff out."

Russia's public support for Iraqi criticism of the U.N. inspections has been matched on several occasions, officials say, by Russian efforts to block specific visits by the commission to sensitive sites in Iraq, for reasons that remain unclear. In addition, Moscow has successfully pressured a Russian specialist on ballistic missiles and chemical weapons, Nikita Smidovitch, to stop leading some of the commission's most sensitive inspections.

Since October of 1997, when Iraq announced it would no longer accept the U.N. inspection procedures that had been in place since 1992, Primakov and other senior Russian officials have been urging the U.N. Security Council to adopt new rules that are more to Saddam Hussein's liking.

Several officials told the Post that the U.S. aim in the current dispute over U.N. inspections is partly to ensure that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction are eliminated, but it is also to keep Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from improving his standing in the Middle East by standing up to the West and getting away with it. And it also appears that Russia is attempting to strengthen the Iraqi government and gain new influence in the region.

One unnamed non-U.S. Official who has access to the U.N. Security Council's private deliberations told the Post: "Clearly, in the U.N. Security Council, Russia is trying to block the commission's effectiveness."

In a proposal that was predicted by ERRI in November 1997, Russia has also attempted to install one of its own representatives as a deputy commissioner, with responsibilities equal to those of Charles Duelfer, the U.S. diplomat who now has the job. The Iraqi and Russian governments also have jointly demanded wider participation by Russian experts in the commission's work, and Moscow has given the commission 60 names of individuals who it says would be willing to "help."

Not all Russians seem to be welcomed by the Iraqi government. On 14 January, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz expressed dissatisfaction with a Russian chemical expert on the commission, Igor Matrohkin, who Aziz said "does not represent the Russian government and has no control [over] him by the government."

United States and United Nations officials have been particularly suspicious about Aziz's motives for insisting that Russians approved by Moscow be appointed chief inspectors of various teams. In many cases, they say, only the chief inspector may know in advance where a sensitive visit is to occur.

Former UNSCOM chairman, Rolf Ekeus, who is now Sweden's ambassador to the U.S. said he believes Primakov has been working closely with Aziz partly because Russia has "a dream to come back and play a much more influential role" in the Middle East.

Ekeus added that Primakov and Aziz have become close personal friends. He said, "You recognize every Primakov proposal has been prepared by Tariq," because they match Iraq's ideas "almost word by word, many times."

ERRI analysts have said it many times in the past and we're going to say it here again ... U.S. intelligence should make a large effort to monitor all communications between Moscow and Baghdad. Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov is anti-U.S. and is as dangerous as a rattlesnake in the grass. The United States government should not trust Primakov under any circumstances. One can tell what kind of person one is by the friends they pick. Yevgeny Primakov is a buddy of Saddam Hussein. Yevgeny Primakov is no friend of the United States and should be treated as such.

We can't say it anymore bluntly. And when news reports come out of some treachery by Primakov against the United States ... remember where you heard it first.

AMMAN (EmergencyNet News) - Riot police attacked several thousand Moslem worshippers, including a leading opposition cleric, for staging a pro-Iraq demonstration in central Amman in defiance of a government ban.

MILITARY NEWS

N. AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - The London Times reported on Saturday that Iraqi intelligence has parked trucks full of dangerous chemicals in residential areas of the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul, apparently to deter a coup against the regime. According to Iraqi opposition leaders, plainclothes police are guarding the trucks that contain sealed barrels.

The trucks have been sited in oil-rich areas and those with ethnic minorities. Kirkuk has many Turkish-speaking Turkomans. In 1988, the Iraqis attacked the Kurdish town of Halabja with chemical weapons, killing more than 6,000 people.

ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten said if the report was true, this could indicate that the Iraqi's are, first, using chemical weapons as a open threat designed to threaten civilian populations. Secondarily, if these trucks were struck by bombs and thus dispursed chemicals, the Iraqi's could then charge that those dropping the bombs were "engaging in chemical warfare" in civilian neighborhoods. Testing of these sites after the fact would indicate that there were chemicals present and validate the charges, even though the circumstances were staged. Diabolical and irrespective of human life, this plot if proven true, shows the mercilessness of the Iraqi regime.

*****

From the ERRI Watch Center

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - The New York Times was reporting on Sunday that Saddam Hussein has reverted back to the furtive lifestyle he maintained in the Gulf War, moving from house to house and employing decoys and disguises. The Times' sources for the story were "several senior officials who worked for him and met with him, Arab Cabinet ministers who have visited him recently and Arab intelligence officers monitoring Iraq."

All of the sources agreed that in case of attack, Iraq's first priority will be to ensure Hussein's survival. Arab officials told the Times that his movements and precautions mean that he will be all but impossible to kill unless there is a secret plan to send land troops to find and kill him. The newspaper said that Hussein often sends out presidential convoys of cars as decoys, then dresses as a Beduoin and drives another car himself.

The Iraqi leader is said to stay overnight at random ordinary Iraqi households. The Times said that his "hosts" will not know of the visit until a member of his security force knocks on their door to announce: "You have a guest tonight."

One Iraqi businessman who lives in Jordan but maintains close ties to the Iraqi regime told the newspaper: "He will use the whole Iraqi people as human shields."

Those who do know his whereabouts are said to be "forbidden under pain of death" to reveal it. If someone wants to see Hussein, they convey their request, then Hussein decides whether to grant it and picks where and when they will meet.

One senior Saudi intelligence official said: "If an American attack guarantees Saddam will be killed, we would be the first to support it. Anything less would be pointless. It would only kill Iraqis and make him more vengeful."

Former Iraqi officials say that the United States overestimates the importance of the Republican Guards. One businessman said, "The Republican Guards are finished since the Gulf War. They have long been replaced with the Special Guards, put together over the past five years from the clans, tribes and Hussein family." A smaller, 10,000-soldier unit is said to be now dedicated to Hussein's protection.

All of these reports are typical of Saddam and of terrorist leaders of his ilk. They will talk a tough game from a distance. They are more than happy to attack by using unsuspecting bombs. But at the first sign of danger or are confronted directly in open combat, they will quickly hide behind the skirts of women. Time and time again, this has proven to be true.

EUROPE

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - Security experts were warning on Monday that Iraq could be preparing terrorist attacks on British and American targets. Amid intelligence reports, counterterrorism measures in Britain were reportedly being stepped up.

In Britain, MI5, MI6, Scotland Yard and the secret Government listening agency GCHQ were said to be actively preparing for the threat of terrorist action - including the possible use of biological or chemical weapons. Responsibility for coordinating counter measures and drawing up contingency plans lies with the Home Office terrorism prevention unit.

Professor Paul Wilkinson of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrew's University said the British authorities were right to take the threat seriously. He said Saddam's agents had a track record of attacking political opponents abroad, including a failed assassination attempt on former US President George Bush in Kuwait in 1993.

Pre-emptive action by Allied security forces before the 1991 Gulf War had been crucial in preventing any serious terror attacks during the previous conflict.

Although the Iraqis could, in theory, try to use biological or chemical agents - such as the virus anthrax or VX nerve gas - Wilkinson said this was unlikely. He said, "It is difficult to see what they would gain from such an extreme attack because of the dangers of a very major attack by the Allies using more firepower than they otherwise would."

More likely was the possibility of attacks on British or American targets - such as embassies or commercial entities - in other countries. The Iraqis could exploit their links with Middle East terror groups, such as Abu Nidal, to carry out such attacks for them.

Wilkinson said a reported meeting between Saddam's son Qusay Hussein, who is responsible for security in Iraq, and Iranian intelligence minister Qorbanali Dorri Najafabadi was a particular cause for concern. If the two countries set aside their long-standing differences to cooperate against the West, it could provide a major increase in Iraq's capability to carry out terrorist attacks abroad.

"That is a worrying report. If true, it suggests there may be a readiness to cooperate on the terrorist and intelligence front," Wilkinson explained.

GAZA (EmergencyNet News) - The armed wing of the HAMAS terrorist group has vowed to carry out terrorist attacks against Israel if the United States takes military action against Iraq.

In a statement, the Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades said: "We will not stand with our hands tied if the Iraqi people and their children or any Arab or Moslem people are subjected to U.S. military attacks and we will answer this in our special way by hitting the Zionist depth and its monstrous entity. We consider this a continuation of our holy struggle against the Zionist enemy. This is serious, not a joke, and you will realize the truth of this soon."

HAMAS has carried out several suicide bombings that have killed scores of Israelis in the past.

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - The London Times reported on Tuesday that photographs of President Saddam Hussein's palace complexes and military facilities are now being examined in detail daily by Western intelligence services. A senior British defense intelligence source told the Times on Monday that he had studied a high-resolution photograph showing a presidential palace in Mosul, northern Iraq, that was spread over an area of about 16 square miles. It is believed to have been taken from an RAF Tornado GR1 using a Vicon high-quality tactical reconnaissance camera fitted inside a special pod attached underneath the bomber.

The Mosul presidential palace is one of eight sites from which United Nations inspectors with the Special Commission on Iraq (Unscom) have been specifically barred. The intelligence source said: "This site is not like Buckingham Palace or Balmoral. In each of the presidential sites we have examined, there are 50 to 500 other structures apart from the palaces. We found 500 separate buildings on one site."

The British intelligence source said that the sites, now the focus of worldwide interest because of the suspicion that they harbor weapons of mass destruction, have fiber optic communications systems and "hold numerous security bunkers with auxiliary power supplies and water- filtration plants."

Pictures taken by American satellites and aerial photographs provided by British reconnaissance aircraft have shown there are 25 palaces in the Baghdad area alone.

Intelligence information on Iraq's military sites and weapons capabilities is far more extensive than before the 1991 Gulf War, when only minimal Western intelligence resources were being devoted to the region.

Based on the reconnaissance photographs, the US and British military have been watching the movement of Saddam's Republican Guard divisions, some of which have been relocated to the south, where the minority Shia communities live, "to prevent uprisings." Other Republican Guard divisions have been divided between the rest of the Iraqi Army and Baghdad to protect Saddam's regime.

The intelligence source said Saddam now had 23 divisions, totaling about 400,000 troops and 2,200 tanks, close to the level of the early 1980s. The Special Republican Guards, a force set up to protect Saddam himself, now consist of 15,000 men.

*****

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - In a data that was released on Tuesday by the White House, U.S. intelligence says that Iraq has Scud-type missiles and a small stockpile of chemical and biological weapons, with the capability to make more quickly. The 17-page document, which had no markings to show who prepared it, was released shortly after President Bill Clinton warned Iraq to permit inspections of suspected sites of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs or face a military strike.

The document was complete with photographs of Iraqi missiles and bombs and was the latest in a series of public steps to justify a possible airstrike on Iraq and to prepare the U.S. public for military action.

According to the report, world experts said: "Enough production components and data remain hidden and enough expertise has been retained or developed to enable Iraq to resume development and production of WMD... They believe Iraq maintains a small force of Scud-type missiles, a small stockpile of chemical and biological munitions and the capability to quickly resurrect biological and chemical weapons production."

The document was entitled: "Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs." It came complete with thumbnail biographical sketches of Iraqi officials said to be involved in the weapons program, tables listing Iraq's production of biological weapons and its 1980s use of chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds and Iran.

A U.S. official declined to say who wrote the report, but said it was based on U.S. intelligence data. The paper said Iraq has repeatedly impeded the work of the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM). It said Iraq had withheld information on its biological weapons program, which included making 22,457 gallons of anthrax, 100,396 gallons of botulism toxin and 591 gallons of aflatoxin.

The paper said: "UNSCOM believes Iraq has greatly understated its production of biological agents and could be holding back such agents, which are easily concealed. Baghdad has provided no hard evidence to support claims that it destroyed all of its (biological weapons) agents and munitions in 1991."

The report listed ten separate occasions between August 1983 and March 1988 when Iraq is to have used chemical weapons -- including mustard gas and nerve agents -- during its war against Iran or on its own Kurdish minority.

The paper said: "Baghdad has not supplied adequate evidence to support its claims that it destroyed all of its (chemical weapons) agents and munitions."

In regards to Iraq's missile capability, the report said Iraq purchased 819 Scud missiles from Russia before the 1991 Gulf War. It is known that the Iraqis were able to modify the missile's warhead and extend its range. The report said: "Discrepancies in Iraqi accounting suggest that Baghdad could still have a small force of Scud-type missiles and an undetermined number of warheads and launchers."

ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Thursday, February 19, 1998 Vol. 4 - 050

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - United Nations relief workers left the Iraqi capital before dawn in a precaution against a possible U.S. attack if the U.N. secretary-general's peace mission fails. A separate U.N. advance team of about 20 people arrived at Habbaniya airport west of Baghdad to prepare for U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's arrival Friday. Annan won the blessing of the U.N. Security Council Wednesday for the diplomatic mission. Annan plans to meet with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and discuss Iraq's refusal to allow U.N. weapons inspectors unlimited access.

*****

LEAD FOCUS

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. defense officials say that military planners have picked dozens of potential targets in Iraq, from suspected chemical and biological arms sites to command centers and the Republican Guard. Despite many questions about how effective the bombs will be against Iraq's suspected chemical and biological programs, military officials say that any raids carried out by the U.S. would batter Iraq's military and reduce its weapons of mass destruction capability.

One official said, "We have said we don't have a silver bullet to end the chem-bio threat. We've said we don't know where that all is, but I think the scope of this attack will surprise people."

In private, senior U.S. military officers say that any campaign would likely begin with night laser bombing raids by F-117A stealth jets on military communications centers in Baghdad and elsewhere and by other aircraft firing "Harm" missiles against air defense radars over southern and central Iraq.

One officer said, "First you poke out their eyes and plug up their ears. You hit anti-aircraft and command sites. Then you go do what you really want."

An air campaign could last from two days to a week. Expect dozens of cruise missiles to be launched from ships and planes that would hit Saddam's presidential palaces that are suspected of hiding chemical or biological arms and "dual-use" industrial sites that could make such deadly weapons along with harmless commercial products. Other potential targets include President Saddam Hussein's elite Republican Guard and security forces.

Many private defense analysts say that although Iraq presents a target-rich environment, several hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles and thousands of tons of bombs may not do great damage to Iraq's large and spread-out forces.

Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report released on Tuesday: "We are not going to destroy Iraq's military machine, or begin to cripple it."

According to Cordesman, Iraq still had about 2,700 tanks, 2,500 major artillery weapons, about 300 helicopters, 340 major surface-to-air missile launchers and at least that many lighter launchers.

Cordesman added: "That is less than half the force Iraq had in 1990, but we are still talking about 30,000 targets spread throughout the country."

Cordesman listed dozens of potential military and arms production targets, ranging from the manufacture of ammunition cases and gas masks at Mosul in the south to production of cluster bombs and fuel air explosives at Fao. He suggested potential targets could include some facilities of Saddam's special intelligence and security forces with headquarters inside a presidential palace on Palestine Street in Baghdad and in a larger building near the Al Rashid Hotel in the capital.

*****

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM REPORTS

EUROPE

ATHENS (EmergencyNet News) - No injuries but damage was reported when a powerful bomb exploded outside the General Motors office in Athens on Thursday. Though no one has claimed responsibility for the blast, police say they suspect the attack was carried out by Greece's deadliest terrorist group, called November 17, to protest U.S. plans to launch a military strike against Iraq. The powerful bomb was planted at the rear entrance of the General Motors dealership in Kifissia, northern Athens.

November 17, named after a bloody student uprising 25 years ago, has killed over 20 U.S., Greek and Turkish officials since its first assassination, that of Richard Welsh, station chief of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in Athens. The group is among Europe's deadliest and most elusive. It launched a string of bomb and rocket attacks on U.S., Israeli and European targets during the 1991 Gulf War. Greek counterterrorism experts say they are also investigating the possibility that other small groups may be involved.

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

CAIRO (EmergencyNet News) - Americans in the Middle East are bracing for a backlash from Islamic terrorists if the United States launches air strikes against Iraq. U.S. embassies in the region have warned U.S. citizens to take extra security precautions.

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CAIRO (EmergencyNet News) - Americans in the Middle East are reportedly getting ready for a backlash from Islamic militants in the event that the United States goes ahead with threatened air strikes against Iraq.

In Cairo, many analysts believe Islamic fundamentalists will retaliate against Americans if the air campaign goes ahead. Halfa Mustafa, the director of the political section at the Ahram Center for strategic Studies and an acknowledged expert on Muslim fundamentalism, said, "I think the only response one could expect if the military strike on Iraq happens is an attack by militant groups on American interests in Egypt. I definitely expect that."

The Cairo office of the British Broadcasting Corp. has received at least one anonymous telephone call threatening: "If Iraq is bombed, the British, American and Israeli embassies will be bombed."

Islamic extremists in Egypt have killed more than 1,200 people since beginning an anti-government campaign in 1992, but so far no Americans have been among the dead. Egypt's two largest fundamentalist groups, al-Gama'a al-Islamiya (Islamic Group or IG) and Jihad (Holy War) have targeted Christians, public officials and foreign tourists in their efforts to destabilize the Mubarak government.

Traditional leaders of al-Gama'a al-Islamiya have for the past four months been trying to persuade other groups to go along with a cease-fire. But a lawyer close to the terrorist group said that the peace initiative does not apply to American or Israeli targets and that if Iraq is hit, he expects the groups to respond in kind.

According to Saad Hasabullah, an Islamist lawyer, the attack could change the direction of the organization. He said, "The Gama'a has decided not to strike the Egyptian government or citizens so that it can save its forces for battling the enemy: Israel. But the U.S., by striking Iraq, would also become the enemy, so all of the Gama'a leadership would agree to a strike."

While Saddam is not generally considered an Islamic leader, he is said to have bolstered his Islamic credentials since the 1991 Gulf war and gained popularity with Egyptian extremists.

Mustafa said, "Saddam is trying to put Islamic legitimacy or credibility to his actions. The biggest symbol was his announcement that he will build the largest mosque in the world. The political language of Saddam has changed since the Gulf war, and until now he has tried to break out of his regional isolation by using Islamic symbols to mobilize people and to evoke a kind of sympathy. It has been successful."

According to Mustafa, not only extremists, but ordinary Egyptians support Saddam. She fears that if air strikes occur, newspapers and political parties will whip up public opinion against the United States. She said, "Mobilizing people against the American policy and making America look like a Satan could create the fertile soil for an extremist attack. They encourage the animosity toward America."

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MILITARY NEWS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - A Washington think tank that monitors the military is calling for a diplomatic solution to the current Iraqi crisis. The Center for Defense Information says the White House lacks public support for military action, and that the Clinton administration has failed to define exactly what it hopes military raids would accomplish.

Eugene Carroll, the deputy director of the center and a retired Navy admiral, said, "There is increasing evidence of great unrest and unease about U.S. plans to bomb Iraq....I think the President is hoping the majority of America is behind him, but there is no evidence that it is."

The president of the center, Gene LaRocque, also a retired admiral, questions the logic of bombing Iraq if the purpose is to force Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to allow U.N. arms inspectors to continue their work. He said, "It's pretty obvious that if we bomb Iraq, the inspections will be stopped."

LaRocque added, "At first, Clinton promised we were going to 'deny' Saddam Hussein the ability to threaten his neighbors with chemical and biological weapons, but his latest statements are that we'll 'diminish' his capacity to do so."

LaRocque also said the administration is underestimating the risk of domestic terrorism, and the danger to U.S. citizens abroad, if Iraq is attacked.

Both retired admirals warn that if Saddam is toppled -- a result they describe as inevitable if Iraq attacks Israel and Israel retaliates -- U.S. troops might have to remain in Iraq indefinitely to quell the resulting anarchy.

LEAD FOCUS

U.S. Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, who will direct any U.S. bombing and cruise missile strikes against Iraq, is described as a modern officer with a background in both combat and peacekeeping tasks. The 54-year-old general is also described as easy-going and quiet, compared to some of the other generals who ran the U.S. Central Command.

Many say Zinni is a stark contrast to the blunt, bullish commander of U.S. forces during the 1991 Gulf War, the legendary General Norman Schwarzkopf. Fellow officers say the Vietnam War veteran understands the value of high- tech weaponry.

At Zinni's insistence, the United States has built a major force in the Gulf, sending extra attack and support planes there this week in case President Bill Clinton orders a strike on Iraq in the stand-off over United Nations arms inspections.

U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Stu Wagner said of Zinni, "He has a fine flair for dealing with people. That came out in difficult situations when he headed 'Operation Provide Comfort"' to help feed and shelter Kurds in Northern Iraq after the Gulf War.

Zinni was essentially thrust into that unfamiliar role in 1991 just after the shooting ended. He dealt well with the humanitarian aid agencies who were wary of military injection into their tasks and with squabbling Kurdish factions on the edge of open warfare.

Wagner said, "He did it successfully. And he did it in the glare of the international news media."

In 1992, Zinni was in Somalia and served as director of operations for a U.S.-led military humanitarian relief effort. In other words, General Zinni has paid his dues and has risen through the ranks with hard work.

Tony Zinni was commissioned a second lieutenant in the Marines in 1965, two years after graduating from Villanova University. He went on to serve two tours of duty in Vietnam and was wounded in 1970.

The general is said to get along well with top officials in moderate Gulf states. One of his hobbies is to go into the desert and hunt with trained falcons.

Colonel Wagener described Zinni as: "smart and likeable and very, very good with people. There is a genuine warmth to Tony Zinni." Zinni also gets along well with reporters.

He is the type of commander who is determined to carry out any attack in the safest way possible for American pilots.

One senior Defense Department official said, "If anybody is shot down or lost, I think it will be a fluke. But Tony has a lot of rescue people there, too."

Zinni is going into his 33rd year as a Marine. Other people say that he is a highly-regarded military strategist and is very popular with the troops. Before taking his current position last summer, he was the deputy commander of CENTCOM and had been mentioned to be on the short- list to become chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before U.S. Army General Henry Shelton was promoted to that job.

All-in-all, Zinni is the right man to be in command in this current situation against the Iraqis.

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EUROPE

ATHENS (EmergencyNet News) - The Athens News newspaper reported on Friday that Greek authorities are concerned about the possibility for more bombing attacks against U.S. and/or British targets. On Thursday, a bomb exploded at a General Motors car dealership in the northern Athens suburb of Maroussi. No injuries, but heavy damage was reported from the blast.

It was the third U.S. target to be hit in Greece recently. Two weeks ago, two McDonalds restaurants in the northern Athens suburbs of Halandri and Vrilissia were also attacked in separate bombings. Greek police believe the three incidents are related and may be connected to the Iraqi crisis.

Police suspect that Greece's terrorist organization "17 November" is responsible for the bomb attacks. During the 1991 Gulf War, 17 November terrorists declared that it had chosen four targets as a show of solidarity with Iraq.

The following is the U.S. State Department profile on the 17 November terrorist organization:

Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17 November)

Description: A radical leftist group established in 1975 and named for the November 1973 student uprising in Greece protesting the military regime. The group is anti-Greek establishment, anti-US, anti-Turkey, anti-NATO; committed to the ouster of US bases, removal of Turkish military presence from Cyprus, and severing of Greece's ties to NATO and the European Union (EU). Organization is obscure, possibly affiliated with other Greek terrorist groups.

Activities: Initial attacks were assassinations of senior US officials and Greek public figures. Added bombings in 1980s. Since 1990, has expanded targets to include EU facilities and foreign firms investing in Greece and has added improvised rocket attacks to its methods.

Strength: Unknown, but presumed to be small.

Location/Area of Operation: Athens, Greece.

External Aid: Unknown.

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MILITARY NEWS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

Commander Campbell should know. He is a recognized expert on the phenomenon of political violence and terrorism, and the successful author of the definitive work on the subject, "Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism." In that book, Campbell created a formal system to specifically measure terrorist group's potential to use Weapons of Mass Destruction in a mass casualty causing attack. Indeed, the Iraqi nation under Saddam Hussein behaves much like an isolated terrorist organization, boxed into a corner with no escape.

By applying his acclaimed expertise, insight and his WMD model to the Iraqi crisis, he arrives at some disturbing conclusions: the "ripeness" for Saddam Hussein to use Weapons of Mass Destruction does not portend welcome thoughts.

Notably, Campbell says, "Hussein may indeed attempt to use biological and chemical weapons if he feels sufficiently (read 'personally') threatened. In this case, Hussein might use Weapons of Mass Destruction as a parting shot as his 'Titanic' sinks into the bowels of historical record." Either way, the possible use of WMD certainly represents a threat potential that cannot be discounted.

Commander Campbell argues that the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction will generally emanate from terrorist groups operating under a veneer of religion, or ethnic-racist hate; not nation-states. These groups, plus the occasional cult, are the most likely candidates to threaten use of WMD in a mass casualty causing act of "super-terrorism".

Campbell does note that Hussein has used WMD in limited strikes against Iran and his own countrymen in Iraq. Isolated and personally threatened, Campbell suggests that Saddam might well feel the need for more widespread use of such weapons. In doing so, he would be exercising a type of "Samson" option, wherein such use is done as the last great act of defiance - to take down as many enemies as possible. Saddam showed this exact tendency when his retreating troops ignited the Kuwaiti oil fields as a last punitive strike.

"The distinction," Commander Campbell says, "is that if a nation like Iraq uses WMD, it can expect a swift and terrible backlash, though when dealing with a personality like Hussein's, such threats may be of limited value. If a terrorist organization strikes with Weapons of Mass Destruction, options for deterrence, (threat of massive retaliation) are severely limited. Such groups do not provide viable or visible targets."

ERRI MORNING NEWS SUMMARY

AMMAN (EmergencyNet News) - Jordan, rocked by pro-Iraqi demonstrations in a southern city, said it might need to declare a state of emergency if hostilities broke out in the Gulf.

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan met with Saddam Hussein to try to reach an agreement on U.N. inspections to avert a U.S. military strike. The talks with the Iraqi president were being held at an undisclosed location. The outcome of Annan's formal talks with Iraqi officials on Saturday and Sunday has not been disclosed, but indications are that he had been unable to resolve the last details of an agreement to grant U.N. inspectors access to all suspected weapons sites, including presidential palaces.

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LEAD FOCUS

According to retired U.S. Marine Corps General John Sheehan, if the President orders an air strike against Iraq -- the first bombs will take out Iraq's network of air defenses and communications. After that, Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard will be targeted -- in particular those troops closest to the border with Kuwait -- and, if possible, production sites for chemical and biological weapons.

Sheehan, who once headed the U.S. Atlantic Command, said that the overall strategy would be to flatten as much as possible, as quickly as possible. And keep it up for days, maybe even weeks.

That is a scenario emerging from Sheehan's discussions with senior military planners and defense specialists. He said, "It's going to be a very different war; it's not a ground war this time. The opening hours will be very violent."

About 10,000 additional U.S. ground troops are being sent into the Persian Gulf region, but they are not expected to see any action, unless Iraq threatens Kuwait. In 1991, the U.S. sent in about 500,000 military personnel to take part in Operation Desert Shield/Storm. In 1998's Operation Desert Thunder, there will be 30,000 personnel and 360 warplanes, compared with 1,000 in 1991. There are also two aircraft carriers in the region compared with six in 1991.

Sheehan says the U.S. this time around U.S. military planners have the advantage of accumulated years worth of monitoring and overflights of Iraqi forces.

Retired U.S. Air Force General Merrill McPeak, who was Air Force chief of staff during the 1991 Gulf War, explained what he would do in the opening stages of the war: "In as massive a way as you can, the objective would be to paralyze Saddam's system. The North Vietnamese would rebuild their air defense systems within days, and this guy's had years. I would never assume that this guy (Saddam) is a pushover."

Hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles would be expected to be launched at the air defense sites from nine U.S. Navy ships in the Gulf. USAF B-52s would unleash similar weapons, having flown closer to Iraqi airspace from bases on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. A key difference this time, the missiles are no longer just guided by terrain, but by satellite and can hit within a dozen feet from 1,000 miles away, and in any weather.

Stealth F-117 fighter-bombers, taking off from Kuwait, would use night cover to drop 2,000-pound laser-guided bombs at concrete command bunkers and communication outposts. Then, U.S. Air Force F-16CJ Fighting Falcons will destroy what radars are left with high-speed, anti-radiation missiles.

Those missions will pave the way for the 100 strike jets that will launch off the aircraft carriers USS George Washington (CVN-73, Nimitz Class) and USS Independence (CV-62, Forrestal Class) in the Gulf. Since the 1991 war, the Navy has outfitted its FA-18 Hornets with laser-guided weapons. And the F-14 Tomcats, once only air-to-air fighters, now can drop precision bombs as well.

That means each aircraft carrier is loaded with three times the firepower one such warship had during the Gulf War. Each carrier has practiced launching 200 bombing runs a day, and can maintain that pace for four days.

One Defense Department expert, who is involved in the planning of the operation, said, "This isn't going to be just a 25-Tomahawk launch. This will be a big deal and it will go for high priority targets from Day One. You will degrade the system and keep it up until somebody yells uncle."

Which really isn't likely in the case of Saddam Hussein.

The DoD official said "pause sequences" have been built into the plan, primarily so that constant reassessments, and potential retargeting, can be done. He added, "And after a pause, you go back and keep chewing it up."

Iraq is said to have about 382,500 active duty soldiers right now. Saddam's best troops are in his six Republican Guard divisions and four Special Republican Guard brigades. Those Special Guard units are thought to be the ones who protect Saddam's arsenals of suspected illegal weapons.

It is reported that the plan has several "menu" options that will allow U.S. Central Command commander General Anthony Zinni to call a halt to the operation within days, or keep the pace up for at least two weeks. And contingency plans exist to react should Saddam decide to lash out.

Zinni recently said, "We've looked at every possible reaction to a strike, and we have sufficient branches and sequel plans to handle anything that might come up."

When Zinni was asked whether Saddam might respond with chemical or biological agents, he replied: "We look at everything, every possibility. We don't discount anything."

U.S. Navy Admiral Leighton Smith (ret.), who was in command of the bombing of Bosnian targets in 1995, said that the most difficult targets will prove to be Iraq's suspected weapons of mass destruction.

Smith said, "First, you have to know where they are, and even if you did, you may not be able to get them because they are buried deep, deep, deep. As the president said, we can hurt him, but we can't denude him of his stockpile."

Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. General Buster Glosson, the man who planned the air war in the 1991 Gulf War, said that he would "level all those presidential compounds" in the first sweep, an effort he predicted would take seven days if perfect weather conditions existed.

Glosson added that he would throw everything in the U.S. air arsenal at Saddam, including the Air Force's long-range B-2 bomber. But U.S. officials say there are no plans to use the bat-winged bomber in this operation.

Retired U.S. Navy Admiral Stanley Arthur, who last held the position of Vice Chief of Naval Operations, said logistics and support would be crucial for maintaining the operation for any length of time.

In regards to support operations, Arthur mentioned high-flying surveillance aircraft, electronic jamming planes to disrupt Iraqi communications, Air Force AWACS and Navy E-2C Hawkeye command and control planes, numerous refueling tankers to keep bombing aircraft aloft, and search-and-rescue teams ready to go into enemy territory and retrieve downed pilots.

Arthur predicted that in this operation there will be "a decrease in collateral (civilian) damage and much more efficient destruction of the targets. Rather than having to go back in again and again (as was done in 1991), hopefully, they'll get it on the first strike."

*****

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - "If the Americans bomb Iraq, Arab nationalists will strike back," said Akeel Moustafa Darweesh, 42, a former captain in the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

He added, "When we empty the Arab world of stooges and puppets it will no longer be possible for American troops to come through the Suez Canal or use Arab land as bases and attack our people. The US has been given a safe haven in the Arab world. That will not last," said Darweesh from his base in the suburbs of Baghdad. Darweesh fought against the Israeli Army in south Lebanon until he had to flee to Yemen in 1984. Fleeing instead of standing and fight is the typical modus operandi of terrorists like Darweesh.

Extremist groups inside the Palestinian Authority have reportedly issued warnings of a violent backlash. Darweesh said the first targets of any reprisal attacks would be against Arab countries perceived as being "soft on Zionists and the American plot to keep the region permanently unstable".

Darweesh's 18-year-old son is a member of Abu Abbas's radical Palestine Liberation Front (PFLP), which is opposed to Yasser Arafat, the Palestinian leader. According to Darweesh, the group is likely to be planning attacks against "Arab lackeys", including Mr Arafat, whose name is said to be on a list of targets of the Abu Abbas faction and other radical groups.

"Many Arab rulers [Mr Arafat, Saudi royalty, the ruler of Bahrain, and King Hussein of Jordan] have rejected the threats facing Iraq. But in reality they support them," he said. "Their words are to mollify their people. But they ban demonstrations in favor of Iraq, which shows that in reality they are supporting the Americans against the Arabs."

Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan recently said that such terrorist acts could plunge the region into a conflagration. The Prince said, "The greatest danger presented by the American threat to bomb Iraq is the Balkanisation of the country. It could be torn into several pieces, and obscure groups could get hold of the very weapons that the Americans and UN say Saddam is manufacturing. That, in turn, could drag Iraq's neighbors into conflicts all over the place."

Even a terrorist like Darweesh agrees with that assessment. He said, "Iraq could be broken up into three parts. Kurdistan in the north, a Shia Muslim state in the south, and a Sunni state in the middle. That would be very, very dangerous for the region. The states would be uncontrolled and led by mobs."

ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten believes that the words of Darweesh could be merely a harbinger of future events involving civil unrest in Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and a number of other areas, using a U.S. military strike on Iraq as a justification. Additionally, data collected so far would strongly suggest that the number of Islamist- inspired terrorist events, directed at the United States or her allies, such as Israel, could increase dramatically as well. It is believed that adversaries of the United States will attempt to exploit any resulting confusion and chaos for their own purposes.

Staten added, "While we surely do not condone any sort of capitulation or changing of any U.S. policy based on threats of either civil unrest or terrorism, it still would seem prudent to take the potential of these events into consideration. Undoubtedly, appropriate contingency plans are already underway for force protection, domestic defense, and other associated matters. But, based on this information and literally dozens of other similar reports, we must urge precaution, great awareness and an advanced level of preparedness along these lines, at this time."

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U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT NEWS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

U.S. CITIZENS ADVISED TO LEAVE IRAQ; MEDIA FORGETS LESSONS OF GULF WAR

From the ERRI Watch Center

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - In what is being called another sign that a U.S. attack on Iraq is imminent, the U.S. State Department on Saturday advised all American citizens to leave Iraq as soon as possible.

The DoS said in a Public Announcement: "Due to these ongoing tensions, all U.S. citizens are strongly urged to avoid all travel to Iraq, and those already in Iraq are advised to depart as soon as possible."

The State Department warning said conditions inside Iraq were unsettled and dangerous. It is not known how many U.S. citizens are currently in Iraq, but visitors to Iraq report that apart from U.N. personnel and journalists, the number would probably be very small.

In what is seen by some military analysts as something bordering on the ridiculous -- the Pentagon on Saturday declined to tell newspaper editors when military action might start and said journalists who stayed in Iraq could be at risk. It would appear that the mainstream news media has forgotten the lessons from the 1991 Gulf War and perhaps they would like a list of targets along with the time of attack.

The Pentagon, in attempt to bring the media back into reality, said: "You should be aware that there is substantial risk involved in sending people to Iraq during a period that could be highly dangerous. We will do our best to minimize civilian casualties; however, the safety of any particular group of people, including journalists, could be jeopardized in the event of military action."

Even the White House expressed concern for journalists in Baghdad. Spokesman Mike McCurry said the government was worried about inexperienced journalists going to Iraq. He said, "That experience (of the Gulf War in 1991) has given some degree of expertise to news organizations who know how to operate under these circumstances. Our concern ... has been that there are a lot of people now who are apparently going who have not had experience operating in what could become a war zone, that there would be people over there who don't know what they're doing."

BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has signed a breakthrough deal with Iraqi officials that could avert a U.S.-Led Attack. U.N. and Iraqi officials provided few details of the accord, which the United States still has not approved. Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz credited Annan's diplomacy rather than U.S. military threats for clinching the deal. Iraq and U.N. weapons inspectors have been embroiled in 4 1/2-month crisis over opening Saddam Hussein's presidential compounds to U.N. arms inspectors.

ERRI EDITORIAL

The latest statements emulating from Baghdad would seem to indicate that Saddam Hussein and the country of Iraq have again escaped the wrath of the international community. Mr. Hussein's latest example of brinksmanship, if nothing else, clearly shows shows to what great lengths some members of the international community will go to avoid a conflict in the Mid-East or to further their country's agendas in the region... even if it means that chemical and biological weapon proliferation may continue in Iraq and other nearby countries.

Please let me preface the remainder of my remarks by saying that Mr. Kofi Annan should be commended for his earnest and robust efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis between Iraq and the United Nations. Mr. Annan did well what diplomats do...he negotiated and attained an agreement. That's what he set out to do, and that's what he did. But, the devil is in the details, and we haven't seen those yet. Perhaps we'll reserve some further judgement about the quality of the substance of that agreement until it has been passed by the U.N. Security council and made public for us to read. Certainly, a valid and effective diplomatic solution is always preferable to placing America's young men and women in harms way to attain our necessary national security goals.

That said, If we may for a moment, examine who probably won and who lost in this latest round of diplomacy. Obviously, Mr. Hussein won again. Period. The obvious rhetorical question may make this more clear for the casual observer. What did the United Nations gain in this latest agreement?

Well, let's see...Mr. Hussein, AGAIN, for the third or fourth time since 1991, agreed to abide by agreements that he made and U.N. resolutions that ended Operation Desert Storm and provided for "unfettered access and U.N. inspection anywhere in Iraq." These were promises he made in a desperate effort to end the Persian Gulf War and prevent the certain destruction of his country and the probable end of his regime, which would have undoubtedly resulted had he not capitulated. That's about it.

And, what did Mr. Hussein reportedly receive in return for his promise to finally behave? A few days ago, a U.N. brokered agreement said that Mr. Hussein could sell twice as much oil to bolster his crumbling economy. Additionally, and allegedly, the U.N. weapons inspection teams will now be "watered down" with additional diplomatic personnel who are seen by Iraq to be favorable to their position. And finally, the U.N. Secretary General has spoken openly, for the first time, of seeing a "light at the end of the tunnel" and an end to sanctions that have been imposed on Iraq since it has refused to end its capability to produce weapons of mass destruction and publicly destroy the chemical and biological weapons that it already has.

So I ask you, our reader...who won and who lost? Is Saddam Hussein to be believed NOW after he has repeatedly thumbed his nose at the United Nations in general, the United States in particular, and repeatedly deceived the world community? Or, is it more likely that we will be faced with another crisis in six months or a year and again be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to deploy our military forces to protect our allies in the Mid-East and deter Mr. Hussein's latest adventure? Aside from that, the question must be asked...what public relations, political, and foreign policy price has been paid in this, the latest "peaceful solution," to the Iraqi problem?

Sooner or later, an end must come to this madness and Mr. Hussein must be driven from power. How that is to be done remains open to question. But, certainly it must be done, or the United States will be faced with this issue, time and time again, or a even worse problem when Mr. Hussein or his terrorist surrogates decide to deploy these horrible chemical and biological weapons in the future. And that's our opinion.

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