Excerpted from the ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Monday, November 24, 1997 Vol. 3 - No. 328
"HEAD'S UP;" The Iraqi Crisis Originated in Moscow??
Opinion/Editorial
By Steve Macko, EmergencyNet News Managing Editor
In Sunday's edition of the New York Times, columnist William Safire wrote an extremely thought-provoking and scary piece about how Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov may have fooled just about everyone in his "negotiated" settlement to end the recent crisis situation with Iraq.
It should be remembered that this publication has continued to warn everyone about Primakov, since the very day he was installed as the Russian foreign minister, replacing a pro-Western foreign minister in Boris Yeltsin's cabinet. Primakov is anything but pro-Western. He is a former KGB spymaster. He speaks Arabic. He has always been a supporter of Saddam Hussein. The two of them go way back to the days when Iraq was a very good Soviet arms client.
Many people forget that it was Primakov who worked very, very hard to prevent U.S. intervention in the 1991 Gulf War. Since this is an op-ed piece, I'll put my assessment more bluntly: The United States should only trust Primakov trusted as far as you can throw him.
Last week, when Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz went to Moscow for consultations on how best to end the crisis -- the two of them announced a "secret plan" to resolve the situation. What this secret plan was supposed to be about was never divulged by Iraqi or Russian sources. We were apparently led to believe that if Iraq were to end the crisis, Russia, in turn, would work harder in Iraq's behalf to bring an end to the United Nations economic sanctions that have been in place since the 1991 Gulf War.
On Sunday, William Safire came up with a very interesting and a very possible scenario about how the crisis was really resolved in Moscow. According to Safire, the key is in Primakov's statement, swallowed whole by the U.S. and I'll even admit, by me. Primakov said that he had negotiated an agreement to make the U.N. inspections "more effective." This could really mean that Russia could penetrate the U.N. team with Russian operatives. It is extremely important to remember Primakov's background, here.
What could the spies do? Safire said that Primakov could help his buddy Saddam anticipate U.N. ground inspections that might interrupt secret Iraqi work on terror weapons. He could tell Saddam ahead of time where the U.N. team was going to inspect so that things could "be ready" for inspection by the time they arrive.
According to Safire's article: "Saddam knew he could not permanently bar inspections without inviting a substantial military strike. But by kicking over the traces, and complaining about U.S. spying, Saddam and Primakov hoped to reconstitute the U.N. team that was giving them trouble."
Safire added: "Expect Russians not prepared to tip off Moscow to sensitive inspections to be "rotated." Expect the naming of a new executive committee to "make more effective" the commission's plans, and to reveal the names of team leaders on specific missions. Expect Rachel Davies, a tough-minded Brit at Unscom's Information Assessment Services in New York, to be replaced or find her office 'reinforced.'"
If you take into account Primakov's background with Saddam and Iraq, Primakov's KGB experience and how this whole crisis ended in a very anti-climatic fashion -- does this all makes sense?
Here's the really scary part: the United Nations has no counterintelligence capability. How do we weed out the bad apples? The only thing that I can think of is that U.S. intelligence will have to conduct background investigations of the Russians on the team and will have to notify UNSCOM head Richard Butler of who to watch out for and hopefully keep sensitive information from those alleged to be "suspect." To be on the safe side, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to isolate all Russians on the inspection team.
It must be remembered that Iraq owes cash-starved Russia about US$7 to $10 billion. France is also indirectly involved in this. The French and the Russians are eager to see the economic sanctions lifted so they can "do business" with Iraq. Maybe a prime example of the fact that some people need lessons in morality and scruples?
With Moscow's policy of selling anything to anybody as long as they've got the hard currency, the new Russian slogan should be: "Show me the money!" Russia needs hard, cold cash so badly and quickly that they may not even be thinking about the eventual consequences of their actions.
I think that we (both media and independent observers) were all taken in by an old-time KGB spymaster's plot. Ask yourself, is it possible that this whole "crisis," that we went through for three weeks, may not have originated in Baghdad, but rather in ...Moscow?
(c) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1997. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Crisis Management/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.
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