ERRI Risk Assessment Services/EmergencyNet News - Wednesday, December 16, 1998 18:00EST
"FIRST PACKAGE" OF OPERATION DESERT FOX BEING DELIVERED ON IRAQ
From the ERRI Watch Center
WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - Pentagon sources have told ABC News that "the first package" of a multi-prong attack is being delivered on Iraq. The White House has announced that the orders for an attack have been given by POTUS.
News reports from Baghdad have only indicated some anti-aircraft fire and "rumbles" being heard in the distance. Military experts say that if and when cruise missiles strike in the city of Baghdad, it will be obvious.
POTUS had an early morning meeting on Iraq with U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Secretary of Defense William Cohen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Henry Shelton, and National Security Adviser Sandy Berger.
National Security Council spokesman P.J. Crowley said the foreign policy advisers arrived at the White House at about 0700 EST (1200 GMT) for the meeting, which lasted an hour.
At the U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin, giving a detailed account of Iraq's failure to comply that could stand as a justification if bombing is ordered, said: "There is no end in sight for this pattern of obfuscation, obstruction or outright violation. We can find no grounds for optimism that the Iraqi leadership, if left to its own devices, will suddenly change course and opt for cooperation in the new year, or, if it remains in power, in the new millennium."
He said Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had spoken by telephone with the foreign ministers of Russia, France and Britain, Washington's closest ally in the face-off with Iraq.
The United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) on Tuesday reported that Baghdad was not cooperating with its inspections meant to eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, a situation that U.S. officials described as "very serious."
Butler concluded Tuesday that Iraq had failed to restore full cooperation with his weapons experts. He said in a sharp report to U.N. Secretary- General Kofi Annan and the Security Council: "Iraq's conduct ensured that no progress was able to be made in either the fields of disarmament or account for its prohibited weapons programs."
U.N. weapons inspectors were evacuated abruptly from Iraq to Bahrain on Wednesday, and all of the world body's international staff have now left Iraq.
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein put his country on a war footing on Wednesday to confront the threat of "foreign aggression" prompted by a crisis over the U.N. weapons inspections. Saddam invoked the memory of Iraq's 1991 "Mother of all Battles" against U.S.-led forces and appointed four regional commanders to face any foreign aggression.
Saddam's move came just hours after U.N. arms inspectors left the country. A defiant statement issued after the Iraqi leader chaired a joint meeting of the Revolutionary Command Council and ruling Baath Party urged ordinary Iraqis to defy looming Western strikes which it said were aimed at bringing Iraq to its knees.
In a statement, Saddam said: "We call on you Iraqis, women and men, relying on God to throw out their dreams and their failed visions, and prove ... that they will fail as they have failed during the Mother of Battles. They have been planning for a long time to commit a new aggression against you ... thinking, may God forbid, that they can achieve their goals that all the Arab nation should kneel under their feet."
Baghdad's official radio and television played patriotic music, matching the defiant tone of the leadership. They reported that Saddam and his top aides had divided the country into four regional commands to confront air strikes. The United States and Britain had warned these come at any time if they judged Iraq had reneged on an 11th-hour promise to work with the inspectors -- a pledge which narrowly averted a similar threat of force one month ago.
They divided the country into northern, southern, central and "central Euphrates" districts, each assigned different armies and ordered to deal with outside attacks and maintain internal order. An official statement said they would "confront foreign aggression which targeted Iraq's sovereignty, independence and security, and preserve internal security."
Each regional commander would assume control of one or two armies, while Saddam, in his capacity as commander in chief of armed forces, would retain control of air force and air defence units.
Offiicals say that an attack against Iraq probably would begin with waves of up to 300 long-range cruise missiles in an operation designed to heavily damage Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, military.
The goal of the operation would be to cause as much damage as possible to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction -- primarily chemical and biological weapons -- and the means the country uses to produce and hide them. Military officials said that targets could also include those forces that keep Saddam Hussein in power -- his Republican Guard units. Other targets would be Iraq's air defenses and mobile missiles and the command- and-control units that operate Saddam's military forces.
One official said such an attack could last well into the weekend.
Earlier in the day, German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping was quoted as saying that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had to comply with U.N. demands on weapons inspections or face the consequences. Scharping said Hussein had long since exhausted the world's patience. He said he hoped that a military strike against Iraq could be avoided, but added that Germany completely backed the position of the United States.
U.S. FORCES AND WEAPONS IN THE GULF REGION
From B-52 bombers to warships armed with more than 400 long-range cruise missiles, U.S. military forces poised in the Gulf region could quickly launch devastating attacks on Iraq. U.S. forces total over 200 warplanes and 20 ships and are anchored by 15 B-52 bombers on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, each capable of firing 20 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) with 2,000-pound high-explosive warheads.
The aircraft carrier USS Enterprise heads the naval armada. Among other ships are an attack submarine and seven cruisers and destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles with 1,000-pound warheads. The missiles can fly up to 1,000 miles and, guided by satellites in space, strike small targets with pinpoint accuracy.
Britain, which along with the United States called off a massive raid on Iraq at the last minute in November, has 18 Tornado attack jets in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Radar-avoiding U.S. F-117A "stealth" attack jets have not been sent to the Gulf this time, and defense officials say privately initial attacks are likely to chiefly involve cruise missiles to keep U.S. and British pilots out of harm's way.
In addition to more than 70 naval aircraft on the Enterprise, the U.S. Air Force has four big B-1 bombers based in Oman and some 90 F-15, F-16 and A-10 attack jets based in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
MISSILES AND BOMBS
Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missile: Accurate, 18-foot, $1 million "TLAM" fired from Navy cruisers, destroyers and submarines. Range improved since 1991 Gulf War from 700 to 1,000 miles and now more accurate with satellite guidance system. Packs 1,000-pound warhead sheathed in titanium to penetrate walls, then explode. Can also release up to 166 troop-killing bomblets over target area.
Conventional AGM-86C Air-Launched Cruise Missile: Air Force air-to-ground version of Tomahawk can be fired up to 1,500 miles by B-52H bombers. Details secret, but "CALCM" carries 2,000-pound warhead to damage even "hardened" (well-protected) targets.
Navy and Marine Corps F/A-18 attack jets can also fire an accurate stand-off land attack missile (SLAM) with a 488-pound warhead and range of more than 80 miles.
Laser-guided Bombs: Accurate bombs which follow laser beams to their targets. Different GBUs (guided bomb units) carry 2,000, 1,000 and 500-pound warheads and can be dropped by Air Force and Navy jets. There is also a 5,000-pound "bunker buster" version which can be dropped by F-15E jets now stationed in the Gulf.
JDAMS "drop-and-forget" bombs: Similar to laser-guided and television- guided bombs, but new "Joint Direct Attack Munitions" (JDAMS) allow pilots to drop them and leave the area quickly without guiding them. The bombs carry their own internal navigation systems and are guided to target by satellites.
Joint Stand-off Weapon: The U.S. Navy's new but lightly tested 1,065-pound "JSOW" glide bomb. Small number of $180,000 weapons believed to be in Gulf. Dropped by carrier-based F/A-18s, they use satellite positioning system and movable tail fins to glide accurately to targets up to 50 miles from drop point.
General Purpose "Dumb" Bombs: Older, unguided bombs ranging from 476 to 2,000 pounds, some carry clusters of small bomblets which can be released in flight to hit tanks or troops.
High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles: The 13-foot "HARM" missiles, carried by a range of Air Force, Navy and Marine jets, seek out radar signals emitted by missile defense units on the ground. They ride those signals to the source and destroy the radars. The missiles, with a range of more than 80 miles, cost
$284,000 each.
SHIPS AND PLANES
Aircraft carrier USS Enterprise carrying crew of 5,000 and more than 60 attack and other planes including F-14 and F/A-18 fighters, EA-6B electronic warfare jets and E-2C radar warning and control planes.
One Los Angeles Class attack submarine, the USS Carr, and seven cruisers and destroyers capable of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles are also in the Gulf.
B-52H bomber: Huge, eight-engine Air Force jets used in Vietnam War and updated periodically since. Fifteen are on the British base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. With a wingspan of 185 feet, they carry a crew of five and can fire up to 20 air-launched cruise missiles from far outside Iraqi airspace.
B-1B bomber: Four of the four-engined supersonic bombers are in Oman and could see their first military action after being built during the Cold War to drop nuclear bombs on the former Soviet Union. They cost $280 million each, carry a crew of four and are now modified to carry a range of conventional missiles and bombs.
None of the nation's $2 billion B-2 stealth bombers are in the region, but they presumably could be flown round trip from the United States to attack Iraq with large bomb loads if such an order was given.
BRITISH FORCES IN THE GULF
Britain has maintained a small but powerful strike force in the Gulf region since last January when Iraq's standoff over United Nations inspections of suspected weapons sites first brought London and Washington to the brink of military action.
The following is a reported breakdown of British firepower in the region:
-- 600 air force personnel and back up staff.
-- 12 Tornado fighter-bombers at Ali al-Salem air base, Kuwait
-- 6 Tornado reconnaissance aircraft at Al-Kharj air base, Saudi Arabia
-- 4 Jaguar fighter-bombers at Incirlik air base, Turkey
-- 1 VC-10 refuelling tanker in Turkey
-- 2 VC-10 refuelling tankers in Bahrain
-- Type 22 frigate HMS Boxer on patrol in Gulf region
-- RFA Brambleleaf auxiliary support ship in region
WHAT THE IRAQI MILITARY IS DOING
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein issued a decree on Wednesday assigning top aides to command four regions of the country to confront "foreign aggression" against Iraq.
The official Iraqi News Agency said: "An emergency presidential decree was issued today stating that four regional commands were set up to secure requirements of confronting and destroying any foreign aggression."
The agency said the four regional commands divided the country into northern, southern, central and "central Euphrates" districts, each assigned different armies.
The northern region was assigned to the vice-chairman of the powerful Revolutionary Command Council (RCC), Izzat Ibrahim. Iraq's first and fifth armies would be under Ibrahim's command "with all its financial and human potentials."
The southern region was assigned to RCC member General Ali Hassan al-Majeed, with the third and fourth armies as well as naval Gulf forces. The central region -- including Baghdad, Ramadi, Diyala and Saddam's hometown Tikrit -- would be assigned to Defense Minister General Sultan Hashem Ahmed and Iraq's second army.
The central Euphrates region -- covering Hilla, Diwaniya, Samawa and the Shi'ite shrine cities of Kerbala and Najaf -- would be commanded by RCC member Mohammad Hamza al-Zubeidi, who was assigned control of Iraq's border forces. Air force and air defense units were left under the control of Saddam in his capacity as commander in chief of the army.
The ERRI Watch Center is in full operation and will issue around-the-clock updates as events dictate.
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