Summary of Crisis Events-U.N. Weapons Inspections and Iraq-11/08/97 to 11/12/97
ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI
Risk Assessment Services Saturday, November 8, 1997
With military hostilities seemingly imminent against Iraq in the
next few days, the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research
Institute will be publishing a daily SitRep on the crisis.
A few important upcoming flashpoints that will happen on Monday:
1. U-2 spy plane flights are scheduled to resume
over central Iraq. Iraq has threatened to shoot down these
planes. However, ERRI strongly suspects the flights never were
totally suspended by the United States. Intelligence gathering is
continuing.
2. The United Nations Security Council will meet and
discuss the crisis on Monday. Most likely, a military response
will be approved.
Military operations could begin as early as Tuesday. This crisis
may be protracted. Saddam being Saddam in most liklihood will not
change his defiance after a first wave of bombing. The crisis
could very well become greater than it already is.
SATURDAY DEVELOPMENTS
---------------------
BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - A United Nations envoy who has just
returned from Iraq said that the current crisis could lead to a
violent confrontation. Also on Saturday, Iraq blocked American
members of United Nations arms inspection teams for the sixth
straight day.
Iraqi newspapers were reporting that President Saddam Hussein
chaired a meeting of the Iraqi leadership on Friday night during
which Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz was "given the
required instructions" before flying to New York City for
talks with the U.N. Security Council next week.
A member of a special United Nations mission which left Baghdad
on Friday said an Iraqi letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi
Annan insisted that U.S. members of the UNSCOM, the U.N. weapons
monitoring team in Iraq, had to leave the country. Jan Eliasson
said that the U.N. and Iraq were involved in a "chicken
race" that could have violent consequences.
Eliasson said, "The Americans have a phrase called chicken
race. I hope the Iraqis understand that their isolation could be
much worse than it is today." Eliasson added that the
three-man team of U.N. envoys which visited Baghdad this week
told Iraqi leaders during 12 hours of meetings that it was in
their own interests to withdraw their decision to expel the
Americans.
"Iraq will not, for the moment, withdraw their decision to
expel the Americans," he said.
In Washington, U.S. officials on Friday showed growing impatience
and dismay with the Iraqi government. They said they would wait
to hear the U.N. mission's report on Monday.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said she expected the
U.N. Security Council to take "firm action" and
President Bill Clinton, speaking earlier, said he saw no reason
for hope in the confrontation with Iraq.
Late on Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said,
"I think first we have to lower the rhetoric that has
surfaced in the last few days. There's an expression that anger
blows out the lamp of the mind." Cohen also said it was
important to focus on unity at the United Nations and among
Washington's allies, something that Saddam
"desperately" wanted to destroy.
Cohen added that the United Nations must remain firm in dealing
with Iraq because Saddam Hussein has been "lying and
deceiving" international inspectors as he tries to maintain
a deadly arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. He said,
"All of us has a stake in this." The SecDef said it
would be "a very big mistake" for Saddam to target the
U.N. surveillance flights set for next week.
United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) chairman Richard
Butler said that on Monday U.S. U-2 planes would resume
overflights of Iraq on behalf of the United Nations, despite an
Iraqi threat to shoot them down. Butler also told of a new breach
of the U.N. weapons monitoring system in Iraq, saying his
inspectors have been prevented changing cassettes in chemical air
samplers used to detect any banned chemical warfare activity.
An unnamed Pentagon official said on Friday that an attack on the
U-2 spy planes would be an "act of war."
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz claimed Friday that the
United States has used the U.N. spy planes to gather information
for attacks against Iraq, and declared: "I simply cannot
accept that. When a strange plane enters the Iraqi airspace, it
might be shot by the Iraqi anti- aircraft facilities."
On Monday, expect the United States and Great Britain to urge the
U.N. Security Council to declare Iraq in "material
breach" of a 1991 resolution which resulted in a cease-fire
in the Gulf War. Such a declaration in the past has paved the way
for military force against Iraq, on grounds that the cease-fire
terms have been violated. But obtaining Russian or French support
for such a move now would prove difficult.
Sources say that even if the U.N. Security Council fails to
approve support for military action, the United States will act
unilaterally.
Chanting "Down, Down, America!" thousands of Iraqis
rallied in Baghdad on Saturday to show support for Saddam Hussein
in his confrontation with the United States. About 3,000 people
gathered in the center of the city to demonstrate support for
Saddam, chanting "Victory to Iraq!" Most such
demonstrations are organized by the government.
U.S. FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF
REGION
--------------------------------------
The U.S. maintains a military force of about 20,000 troops in the
Persian Gulf region. Currently, there are about 12,500 naval
forces, including the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in the Gulf
with about 5,500 sailors aboard, along with about 50 attack
aircraft and 20 support planes. The Navy has two cruisers, four
destroyers and three guided missile frigates in the area, plus
one attack submarine.
The naval force includes about 2,100 combat-ready Marines in an
amphibious assault group led by the USS Peleliu (LHA-5, Tarawa
Class). This contingent includes assault helicopters and attack
planes.
There are about 1,500 Army soldiers in Kuwait. Currently, 120
U.S. Air Force fighters and other aircraft based mostly in Saudi
Arabia. The Air Force contingent is based at Prince Sultan Air
Base in central Saudi Arabia includes about 6,000 combat and
support personnel.
ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI
Risk Assessment Services Sunday, November 9, 1997
SUNDAY DEVELOPMENTS
-------------------
BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Only a day before the United
Nations Security Council is to meet to discuss the crisis, Iraq
once again refused to allow U.N. weapons inspections teams that
included Americans to do their job on Sunday.
On Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz reiterated that
Iraqi anti-aircraft sites were in a "standby mode" and
warned that they would fire on U.S. U-2 surveillance flights
scheduled to resume on Monday. The United States has said that
such a move could trigger a military response.
The ruling Baath party newspaper al-Thawra said anti-aircraft
weapons were on alert a day before U.S. U-2 spy planes used in
United Nations arms monitoring were to resume flights over Iraq.
Referring to the possibility of a U.S. strike against Iraq, the
paper said: "In the light of this possibility and
precaution, Iraq has put its air defensive systems on alert to
shoot at any hostile target that may appear in Iraqi spaces
whatever its kind and nationality."
Sunday was the seventh consecutive day that U.N. teams with U.S.
experts were turned back. Iraq is charging that the Americans are
spies and are trying to prolong the punishing economic sanctions
imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which sparked the
Gulf War.
Aziz was expected to leave Baghdad on Sunday for the United
States to discuss the crisis at the United Nations. It was not
known if he would address the full Security Council or speak
privately with some of its members.
An Arab diplomatic source said that Aziz would propose that Iraq
"open a dialogue" with the U.N. Special Commission on
how future inspections are conducted and by whom. A proposal
which will undoubtly be called unacceptable by the United States.
Aziz also will seek a timetable from the United Nations for the
lifting of the sanctions.
Sanctions will not be lifted unless UNSCOM gives a clean bill of
health on Iraq's prohibited arms. Aziz said, "This is an
endless game, an endless process that will last maybe for
decades."
Aziz has said that the American inspectors will be expelled from
Iraq if there is no breakthrough at the Security Council. There
are currently seven Americans among the 40 inspectors in Baghdad.
Aziz said Iraq wants the weapons teams "balanced" to
reflect the permanent members on the Security Council. These
include the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.
Which will be another proposal that will undoubtly be called
unacceptable by the United States because Iraq is in no position
to dictate who will and who will not be on the weapons teams.
Iraqi media on Sunday attacked Richard Butler, the Australian
head of the U.N. inspection program. In his last report to the
Security Council, Butler said Iraq was withholding information
from inspectors on biological and chemical weapons.
Government-run newspapers in Baghdad accused Butler of using his
position as a cover for "his pre-designed role to implement
the aggressive anti-Iraq scheme of the Americans." Iraq said
that Butler's approval of next week's U-2 flights was "to
detonate a crisis that justifies military confrontation."
U.S. President Bill Clinton met advisers at the White House on
Saturday to weigh options. Some U.S. officials have conceded
privately that there appeared to be little appetite at the United
Nations for a military response.
ISLAMIC JIHAD URGES ARABS TO
CHALLENGE THE U.S.
-----------------------------------------------
GAZA (EmergencyNet News) - A Palestinian terrorist leader accused
the U.S. on Sunday of terrorizing the world in its standoff with
Iraq over United Nations arms inspection and urged Arabs and
Moslems to challenge the United States.
Sheikh Nafiz Azzam said, "This gangsterly American act
doesn't only aim at hurting Iraq, but at terrorizing the entire
world and push everyone to give up to what America and Israel
want. Arabs and Moslems are required to stand up against the
American injustice and the American arrogance."
Azzam urged Palestinians to halt negotiations with Israel and
boycott a U.S.-backed Middle East and North Africa economic
conference next week in the Gulf state of Qatar attended by
Israel.
ERRI DAILY IRAQ INTELLIGENCE
REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services Monday, November 10, 1997
MONDAY DEVELOPMENTS
-------------------
BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - No incident was reported when U.S.
U-2 spy flights, contracted to United Nations arms monitors,
resumed over Iraq on Monday. Shortly before Iraq's Deputy Prime
Minister Tareq Aziz left Paris for a U.N. Security Council
meeting on the crisis, the U.N. announced that no ground
inspections would take place in Iraq on Monday.
The Iraqi government confirmed that a spy plane did cross its
border from Saudi Arabia but was out of range of anti-aircraft
missiles. An Iraqi military spokesman said, "The U-2 plane
left our international airspace at 11.28 a.m. (0828 GMT). It left
from the same place it had entered Iraqi airspace. It has
returned to Saudi Arabia. Our defenses are ready being prepared
to confront the situation."
Some reports said fighter planes were accompanying the U-2s in
case Iraq carried out its threat to attempt to shoot them down.
The United States has threatened to retaliate if its planes are
shot down. Monday's U-2 mission flew over Iraqi airspace for
three hours. U-2 planes can fly up to 14 miles high -- 70,000
feet, but it was not known how high the plane flew over Iraq and
what its exact flight path was.
In Baghdad on Monday, radio programs were interrupted to
broadcast the military spokesman's comments and for the playing
of the Iraqi national anthem. About 3,000 women chanted
"Down with America" and burned a U.S. flag at a
government-organized rally in Baghdad.
Iraq vowed on Monday that the United States will be defeated in
its confrontation with Iraq. The al-Thawra newspaper, which is
owned by the ruling Baath Party, said that the United States does
not realize "what a strong and decisive will stands behind
Iraq's decision" to bar American weapons monitors. It added:
"It will surely realize that when its arrogance ends in a
new defeat."
The Iraqi government newspaper al-Jumhouriya urged France, China
and Russia to intervene and suspend U-2 flights until after the
U.N. Security Council meeting on Iraq due to begin later on
Monday. A good question would to this request would be: Why?
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said on Sunday that a
confrontation over U.N. arms inspections might be inevitable,
saying the Iraqi people had "to choose between sacrifice or
slavery."
On Monday in Paris, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine met
Aziz and told him Iraq must stop hampering U.N. arms inspections.
Aziz is expected to ask at the United Nations for steps towards
easing sanctions and that inspection teams better reflect the
composition of the Security Council and include fewer Americans.
The two men met for 45 minutes at the ministry during a stopover
by Aziz in the French capital on his way to United Nations
headquarters in New York. Vedrine told Aziz steps taken by Iraq
against U.S. members of the arms inspections team were
"unacceptable."
In Tehran, a senior Iranian official said that Iran opposed U.S.
military action against Iraq, but urged Baghdad to stick to U.N.
resolutions rather than give Washington "excuses" for a
strike.
The Iraqi National Congress, whichis a London-based opposition
group, said Iraq has put its military units on alert, canceled
military leaves and has dispersed its tanks into small units,
some of them hidden in civilian areas. There was no confirmation
of the report.
ANALYSIS OF IRAQI ANTI-AIRCRAFT
WEAPONS
---------------------------------------
Western defense experts say that Iraq's anti-aircraft defenses
include three missiles that could shoot down an American U-2 spy
plane. Experts said three types of Iraqi surface-to-air missiles
could hit the single- engine U-2, whose top speed is slower than
a commercial airliner.
The missiles are the SA-2 that can reach 98,000 feet, the more
modern SA-6 that reaches 79,000 feet and, if the U-2 is flying
below its maximum height, the SA-3 that reaches 65,000 feet.
American U-2 spy planes are based near Saudi Arabia's Red Sea
coast, far from the Iraqi border. The U-2 usually flies with a
large escort of fighters, airborne warning and communications
systems, electronic warfare aircraft, planes carrying high speed
anti-radiation missiles, and search and rescue aircraft.
ISRAEL PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE IRAQI
ATTACK
-----------------------------------------
JERUSALEM (IINS News Service-Israel-11/10) - The IDF is preparing
for the possibility that Iraq might try an aerial attack against
Israel, using non- conventional weaponry such as chemical or
biological warfare.
The Air Force units charged with preventing an aerial attack have
been alerted since the 1991 Gulf War and are on the alert for a
drone aircraft that might try to enter into Israel's airspace
with non-conventional weaponry on board.
The London Times reported on Sunday that Iraq is developing a
secret project, which entails a pilotless aircraft that would be
dispatched to spray chemical or biological agents over Israel.
The unit is operated by a long-distance remote control unit.
The "Weapon of the Day of Judgement" is being designed
by engineers in Iraq to replace the surface-to-surface missiles
used in the Gulf War.
The Iraqis took an M-18 plane and are equipping it for it
900-kilometer (540-mile) flight. Although the plane would be
limited to several tens of kilograms of weaponry, due to fuel
needs for the flight, experts have already stated auxiliary fuel
tanks could be added to permit a larger cargo of a
non-conventional substance. Experts estimate the plane could make
it to Israel in about two hours.
The M-18 pilotless plane is also capable of flying at very low
altitudes, and this increases Israeli fears of it not being
detected by radar systems.
ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI
Risk Assessment Services Tuesday, November 11, 1997
TUESDAY DEVELOPMENTS
--------------------
BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - For the eighth time, United Nations
arms monitoring teams called of inspections in Iraq on Tuesday
when American members were barred again from taking part in the
inspections. In New York City, diplomats at the U.N. continued to
look for ways to end the crisis situation.
The United States said that it was pursuing diplomacy at least
for now, and said that it wanted the U.N. Security Council to
threaten Iraq with "serious consequences" and impose
travel sanctions on officials blocking U.N. inspectors.
In Baghdad, Iraqi citizens have flocked to presidential palaces
to volunteer as human shields in case of a U.S. attack. The Iraqi
government newspaper al-Jumhouriya said: "Any American
aggression against Iraq would be nothing but a little annoyance
for the Iraqi people and would be far less than the 33-nation
aggression." That last part was a reference to the 1991 Gulf
War when U.S.-led forces drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait.
The newspaper al-Qadissiya threatened that if the United States
attacked, the Iraqis would teach it "tough lessons."
In China, where Russian President Boris Yeltsin was visiting, his
spokesman said Russia adamantly opposed military strikes against
Iraq under cover of the U.N. Security Council, and China
supported that position.
In Cairo, the government newspaper al-Ahram said Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak had reiterated his country's opposition
to the use of force.
U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen has postponed an Asian trip
because of the crisis and the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz
remains in the Gulf. There was talk at the Pentagon of a second
aircraft carrier being sent to the region to join the Nimitz.
At the United Nations, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz
has sought a full hearing before the Security Council but Russia
and France, usually sympathetic to Iraq, both said there would be
no dialogue until Baghdad rescinded its ban on the Americans.
Aziz charged on Monday that the United States had cut off all
hope of easing sanctions by its alleged insistence that the
current Iraqi leadership had to go before any embargoes could be
lifted.
The Washington Times was reporting on Tuesday that Iraq was ready
to buy five electronic warfare radar systems from Eastern Europe
that would give it the capability of detecting and shooting down
radar-evading aircraft. Citing anonymous sources, the paper said
U.S. officials were told of the pending deal last month by the
CIA. The Times said a group of Bulgarian arms dealers was working
with Czech military officials to arrange the sale of five
systems, known as Tamara, for up to US$375 million.
ERRI ANALYSIS
--------------------
This situation is even more difficult than it appears on the
surface. There is no easy answer here and policymakers may have
to begin thinking about a moral decision to end this crisis.
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said at the United Nations
on Monday that sanctions do not scare the Iraqi government.
Really meaning that they don't scare Saddam. I think that we can
take his word for it and say that it's true. The United Nations
could probably impose economic sanctions on everything -- food,
medicine, soaps, cars -- everything and it will not matter to
Saddam. Why? Because he doesn't care what hardships or sacrifices
that the sanctions would impose on the Iraqi people. He simply
doesn't care and he's already been preparing them to make
sacrifices. Sanctions WILL NOT WORK.
Next comes the possibility of military action. This analyst has
come to the conclusion that any military action short of an
invasion of Iraq by allied forces WILL NOT WORK. The
U.S. and its allies can reduce Iraq to rubble or back to the
stone age and Saddam will not budge from his defiance. Why?
Because he doesn't care what happens to his citizens or his
troops. Military action could kill thousands of people and he'll
just go on CNN and point out the atrocities being done to the
Iraqi people by the United States.
We could bomb electrical grids, water plants -- we can bomb
anything we want but it will not change his position because the
only thing Saddam cares about is Saddam. He doesn't care what
happens to his people. The allies launched one of the most
intensive bombing campaigns in the history of warfare during the
Gulf War and he didn't budge. Why would he budge today?
It must be understood with what and who we are dealing with.
Saddam is no different from a psychopath killer that can be found
in any prison. Saddam is not like the head of state of most
countries. He's proven it in the past, several times.
The only way to reach Saddam is to touch Saddam himself. He is
the one that must feel pain and discomfort. Inflicting pain and
discomfort on anyone or anything other than Saddam himself
doesn't mean anything.
Giving in to the current Iraqi demands is unacceptable. Diplomacy
and economic sanctions won't work. Military action short of
taking over the country won't work. There's only one real
solution and that is to go after the one single obstacle --
Saddam.
Policymakers will have to make a choice. Continue this situation
as it is or make a hard moral decision on how to deal with the
problem.
Analysis/Opinion by S. Macko, EmergencyNet News
ERRI DAILY IRAQ SITUATION REPORT-ERRI
Risk Assessment Services Wednesday, November 12, 1997
WEDNESDAY DEVELOPMENTS
----------------------
BAGHDAD (EmergencyNet News) - Just hours before a United Nations
Security Council vote on a resolution condemning Iraq, the Iraqi
government once again barred a a U.N. team of weapons monitors on
Wednesday that included Americans. It was the ninth time in ten
days that Baghdad has turned back the arms inspectors.
The Iraqi move came as the U.N. Security Council prepared to vote
on a U.S. and British resolution that would ban Iraqi officials
who interfere with the inspectors from traveling abroad, condemn
Iraq for its threatened expulsion of American inspectors and
suspend further reviews of economic sanctions against Iraq until
the inspectors certify that the Iraqi government is cooperating.
Iraq said on Wednesday that it would not bow to any
"oppressive" United Nations resolution aimed at forcing
Baghdad to rescind its decision banning Americans from taking
part in U.N. arms inspections. The ruling Baath Party newspaper
al-Thawra said in a front page editorial: "Even if America
is able to gain ... a new oppressive resolution or a vicious
international cover to strike against Iraq, it would not force it
to retreat from its decision."
The editorial added: "Iraq is completely ready to endure
more sacrifices in order to realize its legitimate demands."
On Tuesday, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf vowed
again to expel the American inspectors and shoot down a U.S.
surveillance plane used by the United Nations over Iraq. He said
in Baghdad, "We will defend our country and we will defend
our people to our best."
Several hundred Iraqi civilians were reportedly camped out on the
grounds of Saddam's main palace in Baghdad to shield it from any
U.S. attack.
This series of EmergencyNet News special reports was researched and is presented by the EmergencyNet News team, under the leadership of Steve Macko, Managing Editor.
(c) All materials - Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1997. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
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