ENN Special Report
06/02/97 - 11:30CDT
Iran's Quest For Nuclear Weapons
Continues in Bushehr
By C. L. Staten, ERRI Senior Analyst
Chicago, IL (ENN) -- Various pundits continue to hearld the
election of a supposedly moderate Shiite Muslim cleric Mohammad
Khatami in recent Iranian polling. Trial balloons of various
kinds, regarding closer communications and warming relations
between the United States and Iran, are also being floated by any
number of diplomatic operatives on both sides of the Atlantic.
Some have gone so far as to suggest that all sanctions against
Iran be withdrawn, and that Iranian monetary assets, frozen in
American banks, be released.
Meanwhile, in the city of Bushehr, Iran, a joint Russian/Iranian
construction project continues. The workers are in the process of
building a "commercial nuclear power plant" that is to
be used only for the "civilian purposes of electrical
generation." Energy experts, on the other hand, have begun
to question the rationality and motivations of Iran building and
using a more expensive nuclear alternative, when it has vast
supplies of local natural gas and other petroleum resources that
could be used for the less costly generation of electricity.
Several analysts say that it is likely that the Bushehr plant is
being built for other "less than peaceful" purposes.
"It is not known conclusively whether Iran now has an active
military nuclear program, although evidence gathered by several
intelligence services tends to support the notion,"
according to David Schwarzbach, former staff member of the
Natural Resources Defense Council.1
Schwarzbach, probably correctly, points out that Iran observed
the Allied Coalition's rapid victory over Iraq during Desert
Storm with great interest, and undoubtedly reached a conclusion
that they could not hope to compete with Western conventional
forces, should a conflict between them occur.
In light of this revelation, Iran must have concluded that its
only real alternatives must involve the development and
production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)...like chemical,
biological, or nuclear weapons. And, finding themsleves unable to
purchase a working nuclear device, the next most viable
alternative for Iran was to begin the production of its own
covert nuclear infrastructure. At least some would say that the
Bushehr reactor is a key step in the advancement of that
strategy.
Schwarzbach, and others, like analysts at the Emergency Response
& Research Institute (ERRI), have reached a conclusion that
Iran's already cash-strapped and overburdened economy can
ill-afford this development of costly nuclear power, unless its
purpose is not the production of electricity, but rather the
intimidation of its neighbors and preparation for a possible
confrontation with its percieved enemies 1.
[r.e. the United States, Israel, and other allies]
While many diplomats are most hopeful that some change will occur
in the geo-political stance and terroristic actions of Iran,
others say that they are doubtful and will have to wait and see
if the election there makes any meaningful difference. They point
out that the president of Iran is still religiously and
politically subordinate to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his
theocratic regime, who have not shown any inclination for a
change in Iranian policy. In response to the issue, State
Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said on Monday (05/26/97)
that it was too early to judge Khatami, "His actions will be
more important than his words," Burns told the Reuter's News
service.
If Iran is serious about opening a dialogue and decreasing
tensions with the United States and her allies, a discontinuation
of the Bushehr reactor project could serve many nations well.
Short of that, strict observation and monitoring of Iran by the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United States, or
some other similar organization, might give reassurance to
potential opponents of any "peaceful" Iranian nuclear
program. Certainly, the possible covert development of nuclear
weapons by Iran bears close scrutiny and will continue to be a
point of contention and concern by defense officials in the
United States and elsewhere.
Reference:
1 -- "Iran's Nuclear Puzzle", by D. A. Schwarzbach,
Scientific American, June, 1997, Pgs. 62-65
(C) EmergencyNet News Service, 1997. All rights reserved.
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