ENN DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Monday, July 21, 1997 Vol. 3 - 202
OVERVIEW OF THE IRISH REPUBLICAN
ARMY/CEASE-FIRE
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
On Saturday, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) announced a new
cease-fire. The terrorist group's correct title is the
Provisional IRA, a name that it took in 1976 after it split from
the mainstream organization to take up the war against "the
occupying army" in what the British call Ulster and the IRA
calls "an illegal statelet."
The exact size of the IRA is not known. However, security
analysts estimate that the group probably has no more than a
couple of hundred of what are called "volunteers" who
will shoot the guns and detonate the bombs. The aim of the IRA is
to end British rule in Northern Ireland and reunify the province
with the Republic of Ireland. It garners its support from the 40
percent Roman Catholic minority in Northern Ireland and says that
the British treat the Catholics as second class citizens.
Politically, it is growing in power. Seven years ago, its
political arm, Sinn Fein, only won ten percent of the vote in
local elections. In the recent 1 May British elections, Sinn Fein
won 16 percent of the vote.
It was during the 1970s civil rights disturbances, otherwise
known as "the troubles" when the IRA or
"Provos" as they are known, really came into being. At
first, the organization cast itself as the foremost as a defender
of Catholic enclaves against rioting Protestants. Then it turned
to the offensive. "The troubles" have left 3,200 people
dead and have turned Northern Ireland into an armed fortress.
The IRA has fired home-made mortar bombs at #10 Downing Street
and at London's Heathrow airport. They have shot, bombed and
killed hundreds of people. The group has forced Britain to guard
Northern Ireland with up to as many as 20,000 troops. Police
stations are forced to hide behind armored iron sheeting and
grilles to fend off mortar bombs and rockets.
Currently, hundreds of IRA militants sit in British jails after
being apprehended by a sophisticated British army and
intelligence service and Northern Ireland's Royal Ulster
Constabulary (RUC) police force. But one British security chief
conceded that the IRA is really an impossible foe to beat. He
explained, "It's like a starfish. Cut off one bit and it
just grows again."
In late August of 1994, the IRA declared a cease-fire. But when
the British government insisted that group hand over its weapons
to prove its commitment to democracy, months and months of
wrangling excluded the political arm Sinn Fein from the peace
negotiations.
In February of 1996, the IRA abandoned the cease-fire and
detonated a huge bomb that killed two people in London's
Docklands commercial and residential district in the east end.
That attack was followed by the bombing in Manchester city center
and a British army base in Germany.
Though, the IRA has declared a new cease-fire, its weapons are
still held in safe houses by IRA quartermasters who only hand
them out to the "volunteers" when the shadowy Army
Council, the group's top body, authorizes an offensive operation.
A special "Decommissioning Committee" will have to be
set up to operate alongside the political negotiations in order
to oversee any IRA surrender of weapons that only they know the
size and location of. The authorities can only guess at the size
and location of the IRA arsenal.
Security analysts say that nothing will force the IRA to hand
over their guns and there is no precedent in Ireland's bloody
history for a peaceful arms surrender - ever. It would be like
trying to disarm American citizens. It can't be done. Any
surrender of weapons will have to be voluntary.
Many experts in Northern Ireland believe that the weapons held by
the IRA and the main Loyalist extremist groups could be passed on
to splinter factions if any settlement is not to their liking.
And any settlement will most certainly not be to the liking of
everyone. There just will not be any way to possibly come up with
an agreement that would satisfy all of the extremists on either
side.
The amount of weapons that could be passed on is believed to be
formidable and of sufficient sophistication and quantity to keep
the groups fighting well into the next century.
Analysts say that the IRA has the biggest stock of weaponry,
including three tons of Semtex plastic explosive and hundreds of
automatic weapons. Jane's Defense Review recently said: "In
terms of assault rifles, for instance, the IRA has an over-supply
and will not be obliged to import further large quantities for
the foreseeable future."
The IRA is said to have machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades
and at least one SAM-7 surface to air missile which has never
been used and may possibly be defective. Most of the weapons were
smuggled in from Libya or from IRA sympathizers in the United
States. Much of the arsenal is hidden in rural southern Ireland
and is moved piece by piece for operations.
The poor west Belfast suburbs and the Bogside area of Londonderry
provide fertile recruiting grounds for young men and women who
blame London for the high unemployment and blight of those
aforementioned areas. The IRA also recruits in what are called
the "tough" areas of Dublin and even in the Irish bars
of London's Irish districts.
According to security analysts, the strength of the IRA is
provided by its oral history that is steeped in anti-British
hatred. Every IRA death is an anniversary and is celebrated with
graveside rhetoric.
Like a Chicago street gang, IRA discipline is considered to be
unforgiving. Members who have left the organization, informers
and opponents are beaten with baseball bats or, just like the
17-year-old youth this weekend before the cease-fire went into
effect, are shot through the knees in punishment. Some are just
simply murdered.
The group's structure is cell-like, similar to the Algerian FNLA
insurgents or Peru's Shining Path rebels. The motto of the IRA
is: "Our day will come."
The history of guerrilla warfare in Northern Ireland is filled
with splits and schisms. There are breakaway groups on both sides
of the sectarian divide. On the IRA side, there is the Irish
National Liberation Army (INLA), which split from the IRA in
1976, because it was felt the Provos weren't radical enough.
Masked members of the INLA were on the streets of Belfast this
month during the rioting over Protestant parades. It was most
likely the INLA that opened fire on Northern Ireland security
patrols.
The INLA is said to have deep Marxist roots. Its membership is
considered to be very small but fanatic and believes that only
force will drive the British out of Northern Ireland. Its biggest
operation was the 1979 bombing in the British parliament parking
lot which killed Airey Neave, who was a confidant of Margaret
Thatcher.
The enemies of the IRA are Loyalist groups, such as the Ulster
Volunteer Force (UVF), the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF) and the
Red Hand Commando. Even these groups have subgroups that have
split from them, such as the Loyalist Volunteer Force, which
broke from the UVF and UFF to continue what it calls a war to
fight any moves that could weaken Northern Ireland's British
status. The Loyalist Volunteer Force is thought to be responsible
for a series of bombings at Sinn Fein offices which failed to
kill anyone. Security analysts fear that this group is radical,
committed and lethal.
The following is the U.S. State Department profile of the IRA:
Irish Republican Army (IRA)
a.k.a.: Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), The Provos
Description: Radical terrorist group formed in 1969 as
clandestine armed wing of Sinn Fein, a legal political movement
dedicated to removing British forces from Northern Ireland and
unifying Ireland. Has a Marxist orientation. Organized into
small, tightly knit cells under the leadership of the Army
Council.
Activities: Bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, extortion, and
robberies. Before its 1994 cease-fire, targets included senior
British Government officials, British military and police in
Northern Ireland, and Northern Irish Loyalist paramilitary
groups. Since breaking its cease-fire in February 1996, IRA's
operations have included bombing campaigns against train and
subway stations and shopping areas on mainland Britain, British
military and Royal Ulster Constabulary targets in Northern
Ireland, and a British military facility on the European
continent.
Strength: Several hundred, plus several thousand sympathizers.
Location/Area of Operation: Northern Ireland, Irish Republic,
Great Britain, and Europe.
External Aid: Has received aid from a variety of groups and
countries and considerable training and arms from Libya and, at
one time, the PLO. Also is suspected of receiving funds and arms
from sympathizers in the United States. Similarities in
operations suggest links to ETA.
(c) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1997. All Rights
Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
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