Revised from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment
Services- Wednesday, September 16, 1998-Vol. 4, No. 259
LEAD FOCUS
SUMMARY/REVIEW OF GLOBAL CONFLICTS; ARE WE DISTRACTED?
By C. L. Staten, ERRI Senior Analyst
CHICAGO (EmergencyNet News) - With much of the American consciousness focusing on domestic
political scandals and a discussion of impropriety and impeachment, one must pause and
wonder whether or not our country is taking our eyes "off the ball." While the
political circus swirls in Washington and the cameras are focused in a different
direction, events in many other parts of the world would appear to have been forgotten.
Unfortunately, this may not be a good time to be distracted as crisis' embroil several
regions of the world. In order to better grasp the significance of these events, let's
review some important areas of conflict and financial difficulties in the world:
Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan
Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has announced a full-scale military alert and moved
additional troops into a position to quickly strike Afghanistan, where nine Iranian
diplomats were allegedly killed by Taliban militia members a few days ago. Increasingly
frightening rhetoric has been flowing from both Iran and the Taliban's Omar that they
would engage in open warfare in the near future. Troop movements would indicate that this
maybe a distinct possibility. Pakistani rebels support both sides in the conflict and some
factions could be expected to take sides if open conflict were to result. Combat could
easily escalate and spill over into Pakistan or other surrounding countries. All in all,
this border area is a tinder-box that could explode into open flames at almost any time.
Russia:
Russia financial banks have closed and the rouble has been in a slide for several weeks
now. Hardline nationalists and communists apparently are seizing the opportunity to regain
control of the government in the midst of the on-going economic crisis. Russia's economic
turmoil has drawn in several of the former Soviet republics, which are closely linked to
the Russian economy, despite efforts to reduce dependence on their neighbor. In the wake
of the Russian rouble decline, Ukraine has devalued its currency by 50 percent, the
Belarussian currency has crashed, Kazakhstan struggles to avert a Russian-type financial
meltdown, Moldova has appealed to the World Bank and IMF to bail out its finances, Georgia
and Armenia are fighting panic dollar buying and the Baltic States are laying off workers
at productions geared to the Russian market.
The Russian military is reportedly in disarray and frequent complaints would indicate that
many troops haven't been paid in months. Several incidents have occurred in recent days in
which, military personnel have taken hostages or engaged in combat with police. An
incident on a nuclear submarine, in which a number of people died immediately comes to
mind. Reports continue to surface of the possibility of the covert sale of Weapons of Mass
Destruction (Chemical, Biological, Chemical, Missiles) to rogue nations. Experts say that
the solution may not be much better... a recent compromise and the choice of former KGB
spymaster and known Iraqi supporter Primikov as Prime Minister, probably doesn't bode well
for future cooperation between the United States and Russian governments.
Albania/Kosovo:
Some are calling battles that have taken place in Tirana the worst in Albania in more than
a year. Special forces troops fought on Monday to retake a television station and other
government facilities that had been captured by opposition forces. The injuries and deaths
of several people were reported. This latest attack in the capitol follows weeks of
battles in the country-side and the use of tanks and artillery on civilian populations as
the government engages in suppression of members of the Kosovo Liberation Army and others
seeking independence/autonomy for the Kosovo province. Reports continue to surface of
massacres and mass graves in the Kosovo area.
Indonesia:
Indonesia's defense minister, Gen. Wiranto, warned Tuesday that the country's stability
and unity are under serious threat as angry demonstrations continued over the country's
mounting economic crisis. Unrest continues to grow among the general population as people
try to cope with higher prices for food and declining purchasing power as their currency
continues to devalue, during the country's worst economic crisis in three decades. Similar
disturbances took place in Jakarta, prior to the resignation of long time strongman
Suharto, which claimed at least 1,200 lives. Violence has reportedly begun to flare again,
despite B.J. Habibie's efforts at implementing economic and democratic reforms.
Malaysia:
Indications would suggest that Malysia may be headed in the troubled direction as Indonesia. Economic problems and increasing charges of political corruption and cronyism are plaguing the administration of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Islamic groups and students are reportedly becoming increasingly upset with a lack of political reforms and the high costs of food and other basic essentials. Civil unrest is a distinct possibility there in the near future.
Central Africa:
The U.S. embassy in the Ugandan capital of Kampala was closed on Monday (Sept. 14),
because of security concerns, a State Department official said on Tuesday. The official,
who asked not to be identified, declined to spell out the security concerns, but said the
embassy had also advised American citizens in Uganda to "use caution". The U.S.
official said he understood the British and Danish embassies in Kampala were also closed.
The New Vision newspaper reported that a total of five embassies were closed on Monday
following a series of bomb threats. Monday's action follows the closing of several other
embassies and missions in Central and Southern Africa, following the Aug. 7 simultaneous
bombings in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania, which killed more than 250 people, including
12 Americans.
Japan/Korea:
Accusations and counter-accusations continue as Japan accuses North Korea of shooting a
ballistic missile over it's territory. North Korea alleges that it launched a peaceful
booster that orbited a satellite that plays "revolutionary hymns," and Japan
alleges that it was a test of ballistic missile that could threaten Japan with nuclear or
chemical warheads. Meantime, the Japanese political, economic and banking systems are
under increasing scrutiny and provoking concerns about a "general breakdown." In
North Korea, people are allegedly eating grass and leaves in an effort to prevent
starvation as the military-industrial complex continues to spend the nation's money on
brinksmanship with South Korea and Japan.
Iraq:
Least we forget...Saddam Hussein and the ruling council in Iraq have recently, again,
stopped U.N. inspectors from searching for chemical and biological weapons and are
demanding the immediate withdrawal of all sanctions that prohibit Iraq from buying
whatever it wants. In the United Nations, a "toothless" resolution was passed,
which admonished Iraq for its misbehavior and suspended a review of these important
inspections. Hearings in Congress, involving former U.S. Marine and U.N. Inspector Scott
Ritter, revealed that there may have been a secret change in U.S. policy so as to not
confront Iraq over the inspections effort. Hussein has again broken his word, this time to
Kofi Anan and the United Nations. Meanwhile, Iraq continues to threaten and bluster... and
the stand-off goes on.
(C) Copyright, EmergencyNet News Service, 1998. All rights reserved. Redistribution
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