Hurricane Bertha Update
The situation in brief as of 8:00 p.m. (EDT) Monday, July 8, 1996:
Preliminary reports from federal disaster response personnel in the U.S. Virgin Islands indicate numerous homes
have been damaged, many of them still undergoing repairs from Hurricane Marilyn. All three airports are closed,
and navigational instruments at the airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico are operating only for emergency landings
on one runway. Air traffic control has been turned over to FAA controllers in Miami.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is responsible for coordinating the federal
government's disaster response efforts, has put its Emergency Support Team (EST) at FEMA headquarters in
Washington on 24-hour operations. The EST is continuing to alert, activate and deploy federal resources and
disaster teams as necessary and will make mission assignments to other federal agencies as special needs are
determined.
Among EST priorities over the next 24 hours are the development of contingency plans for the evacuation of the
estimated 2,800 tourists on St. Thomas.
The governors of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have submitted requests for Presidential disaster
declarations through the appropriate FEMA officials.
With the resources of FEMA Region IV headquarters in Atlanta fully committed to preparing for potential
emergencies connected with the Olympic Games, coordination of the disaster response to Hurricane Bertha will
be spearheaded by Region VI (Denton, Tex.), with Region VIII (Denver, Colo.) and Region X (Bothell,
Wash.), and additional FEMA Regions in reserve.
A FEMA Field Assessment Team (FasT) is en route to St. Thomas via military air transport. Two additional
FEMA damage assessment teams have been alerted for possible U.S. mainland duty.
FEMA's Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) task force in Nebraska has been placed on alert, replacing the
US&R task force from Metro-Dade County, Fla., which may be needed closer to home if Hurricane Bertha
strikes southeastern Florida.
The Department of Transportation has activated a Movement Coordination Center to manage transportation
logistics for response personnel and equipment deployed to the disaster areas as required.
The U.S. Public Health Service has designated Disaster Medical Assistance Teams from Texas, Ohio, Indiana
and Massachussetts to respond as required, as well as a Medical Support Unit from Dobbins Air Force Base in
Georgia.
The Internet has become an increasingly popular source of hurricane-related information. FEMA's World Wide
Web site (http://www.fema.gov) today experienced a ten thousand percent increase in use, registering
approximately 1 million accesses in a 16-hour period.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Office of Emergency Information & Public Affairs ---
Washington, D.C.
Information Available 24 hours a day . . .
... on the World Wide Web: http://www.fema.gov
... via fax-on-demand: phone in the U.S.A. (202) 646-FEMA (646-3362)
... via digital audio for broadcasters & print: contact eipa@fema.gov
TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE BASED ON 00Z AVN RUN...TURN BERTHA TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST. THIS CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. PREVIOUS RUNS DID NOT CAPTURE SUCH AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH AND INSTEAD KEPT A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA. THIS SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY THE THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 305/17. IN AGREEMENT WITH NEW GUIDANCE...A MORE DEFINITE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
LATEST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 965 MB AND AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THROUGH 48 HOURS. IN ANY EVENT...BERTHA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A CAT 3...MAJOR...HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A WEAKENING MAY BEGIN ONCE BERTHA TURNS NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.
AVILA