Excerpted from EmergencyNet News Service Daily Report
09/02/96 - Vol. 2, No. 246

TROUBLE IN MEXICO
By Steve Macko, ENN Editor

This past week, coordinated rebel attacks were launched on Mexican police and army barracks in six different states in the Latin America country. These attacks resulted in the deaths of between 14 to 16 people and another 22 were wounded. The Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) took responsibility for the attacks. EPR first appeared on 28 June and, at first, was no taken very seriously because all of the first attacks were considered to be small-scale.

But the operations that took place on Thursday and Friday were anything but small-scale rebel attacks. Witnesses in the town of Tixtla described 30 gunmen with their faces covered with bandannas and wearing khaki uniforms. The attackers moved through the town's main square in combat formation and proceeded to open fire on the police.

One policeman, who traded fire with the rebels before he found himself outnumbered and seriously outgunned, said, "I didn't believe in them at all, but seeing them I realized that the guerrillas do exist. They are fanatical and dedicated, they have killing in their hearts ... it was a commando that knew about strategy and guerrilla war." Other witnesses who hid in shops in the town as the gunbattle was waged said that it was obvious that the rebels were well- disciplined. They specifically ordered civilians to get out of the way, saying they were only after the police and soldiers.

In another southern Mexico town, Huatulco, located in the state of Oaxaca, the rebels attacked a police station, a naval base, the town hall and one other public building. Seven people were killed and seven others were wounded in the attacks.

On Friday, the Mexican military set up roadblocks and searched the hills for the guerrillas. The Mexican newspapers said that the attacks were the most wide-ranging guerrilla action in decades. The papers also worried that the EPR could be a new threat to the country.

The Mexican government, later in the day, ordered tighter security at airports and coastal resorts. Dozens of suspected rebels were arrested in at least nine states. Mexican Interior Undersecretary Arturo Nunez said that the EPR was an arm of a Marxist group called the Clandestine Revolutionary Workers Party Union of the People (PROCUP). Nunez said, "It is a radical group which said it seeks power through violent means, which proclaims that a dictatorship of the proletariat should be installed in Mexico to construct socialism."

The EPR has called for a new Mexican government, a new constitution and leftist economic changes. As far as is known, it has not publicly called for a socialist dictatorship. However, one of the suspects who was arrested for having connections to the group said "the ideology of the EPR is of a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist type."

Nunez said that on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, less than 200 rebels took part in the attacks. Three soldiers, six policeman, two civilians and two guerrillas were killed.

The U.S. State Department did condemn the attacks by saying: "There can be no justification for violence in pursuit of political ends in Mexico. However, it is important to underscore that the United States does not consider these actions threatening to Mexican political or economic stability."

Mexican officials during the summer consistently downplayed the significance of the EPR. About two weeks ago, Nunez said that it appeared that the EPR had be confined to the state of Guerrero. On Friday, the perception of the threat changed. Federal police could be seen walking with dogs at Mexico City airport. Increased security was checking cars, trucks and buses along many highways in Mexico. Nunez said, "New actions by this group cannot be discounted." He added that the rebels "want attention, to generate a climate of anxiety, of uncertainty, to project an image abroad of a destabilized Mexico." Nunez also suggested that EPR may be financing itself with bank robberies and kidnaps for ransom.


How much is really known about the Popular Revolutionary Army?

They apparently first appeared on 28 June at a memorial service near Acapulco for peasants who were massacred by Guerrero state police in January of 1994. Very little is known about the size of the EPR. Best indications were given this past week when it was said that about 200 rebels took part in the attacks. It is believed, but not confirmed, that the group grew out of rebel bands that was led by one Lucio Cabanas, who hid in the hills of Guerreo in the 1960s and 1970s. They appear to have been trained to carry out operations with military precision, and have some modern weapons. Other than that, not much else is know, at this time.

There is a government concern that poor people living in the areas where the EPR is operating will sympathize and even join the rebel cause in southern Mexico. On Sunday night, in his state-of-the union address, Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo introduced new social programs aimed at offsetting the poverty that appears to be behind the violence. "Mexicans will not permit -- when our country is back on its feet, overcoming adversities -- the appearance of groups that use terrorism to assassinate, destroy or threaten," said Zedillo.

ERRI analysts have kept appraised of the EPR all summer, but like most analysts -- it was felt that the EPR held no significant threat. While ERRI would agree with the State Department assessment, the situation still does bear close monitoring until more is known about this group. They most certainly have the ability to cause great havoc in the rural and tourist areas in southern Mexico. More attacks by EPR are expected.

(C) EmergencyNet News Service, 1996. All rights reserved; contact ENN for redistribution rights.

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