ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT
EmergencyNet News Service
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Vol. 13, No. 039
"We'll Help You Better Understand Your World..."
INDEX:
-- Panic Warning Over [WMD] Attack
-- Jihadi Forum Outlines Use of Poisons for Terrorist Attacks
-- IRAQ: Al-Qaeda Announces 'U.S. Helicopter Cemetery'
-- Iran vows to target US interests if attacked
-- A chilling message for the infidels; An interview with Abu Bakar Bashir
Current U.S. National General Terror Alert Level - (YELLOW) ELEVATED
Aviation Sector Alert Level USA = Orange/High
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Panic Warning Over Attack
LONDON, ENGLAND: Britain would be paralysed by mass panic if the country came under attack with weapons of mass destruction. A think tank has warned that the country is likely to prove "brittle", especially in the face of a chemical or biological strike by terrorists.
A report by Chatham House says the Government needs to act now and counter the psychological frailties the country could show.
The conclusion follows the warning last year by MI5 Director General Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller that terrorist groups would in future almost certainly attempt to use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) weapons against the UK.
"A good deal of the effect of a terrorist attack in the United Kingdom using CBRN could prove to be self-inflicted by the victims of the attack - the general public, business leaders and government officials - or magnified by alarmist media," the report said.
"The United Kingdom might prove to be rather brittle in the face of a CBRN attack - there might be a demoralising sense of defencelessness, particularly if unknown and invisible agents and pollutants are used, and possibly even widespread panic - and it seems reasonable to assume that terrorists might hope for such brittleness in order to expand the effect of their attack."
The report said that there was little to deter highly-committed terror groups from seeking to use such weapons.
They could well regard the risks involved in handling such materials as worth taking, while deploying their weapons may be as simple as carrying a small bag into a crowded sports stadium or shopping arcade.
"The desired 'effect' might be no more than some hundreds or thousands of deaths, or the destruction of a few buildings, all of which would be magnified by the terrorist's 'propaganda of the deed'," it said.
The report warns that between them, CBRN now offered a range of capabilities to suit almost any terrorist group "from the largest to the smallest, from the almost casual to the most organised, and from the poorest to the best funded". - Source: SkyNews, 09:24, Thursday February 08, 2007, can be found at: http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1250627,00.html
EDITOR'S NOTE: ERRI analysts reached similar conclusions about a psychological reaction to a WMD attack and warned about the possible implications of a "Psychogenic Component" of a CBRN attack in 1997. Please see: "Emergency Response to Chemical/Biological Terrorist Incidents, 08/07/97," which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/cbwlesn1.htm
Jihadi Forum Outlines Use of Poisons for Terrorist Attacks
By Abdul Hameed Bakier
Jihadi attempts to procure lethal and destructive weapons are endless. It is especially disturbing when they attempt to experiment with and acquire chemical and biological weapons. One recent post on a jihadi website outlined a user's attempts at mixing chemical components to create deadly substances for terrorist purposes. The post, titled "The War of Poisons," was authored by a user with the pseudonym "Wajeh al-Qamar," who explained how to use different poisons against Americans in order to push them out of the Arabian Peninsula (http://alsayf.com, July 30).
Al-Qamar instructs fellow jihadis to mix cyanide with any type of body lotion that enlarges skin pores. According to al-Qamar's theory, the skin will then absorb the cyanide in three to five seconds. Al-Qamar claims that experiments have already been completed on rabbits, which he explains have a similar blood pressure to humans. In the experiments, the cyanide-lotion mix quickly killed the rabbits. As part of this plot, al-Qamar suggests that jihadis smear the door handles of cars owned by Americans with small quantities of the cyanide-lotion mixture, or spray it in the air-conditioning vents of their cars or houses.
In addition to the cyanide-lotion mix, al-Qamar suggests that jihadis use malathion and propoxur to poison Americans—insecticides that are available from farming markets and can be easily purchased. According to al-Qamar, the insecticides, after being mixed with a third poisonous substance, would have a dangerous effect on the target, although it will not necessarily result in death. Al-Qamar then says, "I vowed to invent stronger poisons than cyanide," and moved to explain how to pollute groceries of an American shopper with sodium peroxide and sodium oxide by injecting the fluids into their food products. Al-Qamar discusses other deadly substances that can be extracted from plants and explains how to transform them into either fluid or aerosol form. Al-Qamar acts as if he is an expert on chemicals since he uses medical terms to label the degree of health hazards that each substance might cause.
Regardless of the likelihood or effectiveness of the above terrorism strategies, they display the danger posed by jihadi use of the internet. If a jihadi with experience in chemical weapons was able to establish contact with a willing recruit in Europe, the United States or elsewhere, he would be able to transmit the necessary knowledge needed for a chemical attack. Moreover, direct contact between a handler and a recruit is not even necessary since the jihadi forums contain hundreds of documents outlining various methods to kill large numbers of people. The recruit does not have to be a member of al-Qaeda, but only a sympathizer willing to pursue the organization's ideology.
-- Source: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370227
MILITARY NEWS
IRAQ Sit-Rep
IRAQ: Al-Qaeda Announces 'U.S. Helicopter Cemetery'
Group Claims to Have "Better SAMs"
Fallujah, IRAQ: Islamist insurgents are now able to kill United States soldiers in the air as well as on the ground, al-Qaeda's putative leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Falluji, has claimed in an interview with the Islamist website 'Islammemo'. "In the next month, you will see a real US military helicopter graveyard," al-Falluji said. He claimed insurgents have downed 15 helicopters while the US military says it has lost six aircraft in less than three weeks.
"We inform Muslims that the coming days will be more difficult for the invaders," al-Falluji warned, inviting soliders from the Iraqi army to surrender. "Sunni mosques are open to those who want to turn themselves in and join the resistence," he added.
"We have at our disposal new technology that enables us to bring down aircraft but cannot give any further information for security reasons," al-Falluji concluded. He is the head of a formation calling itself the Islamic Iraqi State, which al-Qaeda in Iraq is part of.
An unnamed Iraqi military expert told the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat that the US military helicopters have mostly been shot down by high-tech rockets launched obtained recently by Sunni guerrillas. "They are able to hit aircraft that are carrying out surveillance flights because they have acquired state of the art ground to air missile technology," the expert said.
Many armed groups in Iraq have acquired these locally, according to unnamed security sources quoted by a-Hayat. Three Chinook and two Black Hawk US military helicopters have been shot down since 20 January, as well as civilian aircraft belonging to a US company.
Guerrillas also appear to be using other types of weapon such as several new, more powerful kinds of explosive device. Some of these, such as the latest generation Katiusha rocket have made and altered in Iraq have been made and modified in Iraq, according to the security sources.
INFORMATION OPERATIONS- IRAN
Iran vows to target US interests if attacked
TEHRAN, IRAN/NEW YORK, NY: Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, says the Islamic republic will target United States interests around the world if it comes under attack, state television reports.
Iran and the United States are locked in a dispute over Iran's nuclear program, which the US says is being used to build atomic bombs.
US officials say they want diplomacy to end the stand-off but have not ruled out force if diplomacy fails.
Iranian state television quoted Ayatollah Khamenei as saying Iran will react to any attack. "The enemies know well that any aggression will lead to a reaction from all sides in the Iranian nation on the aggressors and their interests around the world," he said.
"We believe that no one will make such an unwise and wrong move [to attack Iran] that would endanger their country and interests.
"Some say that the US President is not the type who acts based on calculations or thinks about the consequences of his action. "But even these people can be brought to their senses."
The comments by Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came on the same day that another top official, Tehran's ambassador to the United Nations, Javad Zarif, warned in a column in The New York Times that efforts to isolate Iran would backfire on the United States, increasing sectarian tensions in the volatile Middle East, including Iraq.
The United States is reaping "the expected bitter fruits of its ill- conceived adventurism," he said.
"But rather than face these unpleasant facts, the United States administration is trying to sell an escalated version of the same failed policy. It does this by trying to make Iran its scapegoat and fabricating evidence of Iranian activities in Iraq," he said.
The United States and Iran have been in an increasingly tense standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. The tensions have worsened recently because of U.S. allegations of Iranian influence in Iraq.
US President George Bush has said he has no intention of invading Iran, though he has pledged to step up pressure on the Islamic republic over its nuclear program and what the US calls Iran's meddling in Iraq.
Iran insists its nuclear program is purely civilian and says it is not backing militants in Iraq.
CULTURAL UNDERSTANDING
A chilling message for the infidels
An interview with Abu Bakar Bashir
INDONESIA: Just six weeks before last Saturday's terrorist atrocity in Bali, in a jail cell in Jakarta, I interviewed Abu Bakar Bashir, the alleged spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), al-Qa'eda's main ally in the region, and the group on which western attention is focused in the hunt for culprits.
Bashir was celebrating the news that an Indonesian court had agreed to reduce his 30-month sentence for conspiracy in the 2002 Bali bombings by more than four months, meaning that he will soon walk free.
Ever since the first bombings, in which 202 people died, Indonesian authorities have been woolly in their response to terrorism for fear of alienating a largely anti-American population. Nothing illustrates this better than the appeal court's judgment on Bashir's early release - they took the decision even though he was implicated in a JI plot to overthrow Indonesia's previous government, and despite independent testimony from senior JI operatives in custody that he had approved the 2002 bombings.
At 66, Bashir is a lanky, bespectacled Hadrami, who, like Osama Bin Laden, traces his family back to the Hadramawt region of Yemen. Surrounded by acolytes - including known JI bombers - serving him dates, he answered questions with a strong voice and easy laugh.
Scott Atran: What are the conditions for Islam to be strong?
Abu Bakar Bashir: The infidel country must be visited and spied upon. If we don't come to them, they will persecute Islam. They will prevent non-Muslims converting.
SA: What can the West, especially the US, do to make the world more peaceful?
ABB: They have to stop fighting Islam. That's impossible because it is sunnatullah [destiny, a law of nature], as Allah has said in the Koran. If they want to have peace, they have to accept to be governed by Islam.
SA: What if they persist?
ABB: We'll keep fighting them and they'll lose. The batil [falsehood] will lose sooner or later. I sent a letter to Bush. I said that you'll lose and there is no point for you [to fight us]. This [concept] is found in the Koran.
SA: Have you met Osama Bin Laden?
ABB: No, no. I want to though. After my release, I hope I can meet him.
SA: Where will you find him?
ABB: If he still exists - but how could I? I have sympathy for his struggle. Osama is Allah's soldier. When I heard his story, I came to the conclusion that he's mujahid, a soldier of Allah.
SA: You will always be on his side?
ABB: His tactics and calculations may sometimes be wrong, he's an ordinary human being after all. I don't agree with all of his actions. Osama believes in total war. This concept I don't agree with. If this occurs in an Islamic country, the fitnah [discord] will be felt by Muslims. But to attack them in their country [America] is fine.
SA: So this fight will never end?
ABB: Never. This fight is compulsory. Muslims who don't hate America sin. What I mean by America is George Bush's regime. There is no iman [belief] if one doesn't hate America.
SA: How can the American regime and its policies change?
ABB: We'll see. As long as there is no intention to fight us and Islam continues to grow there can be peace. This is the doctrine of Islam. Islam can't be ruled by others. Allah's law must stand above human law. There is no [example] of Islam and infidels, the right and the wrong, living together in peace.
Source: http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=2&subID=46&WT.srch=1
Dr. Scott Atran is a specialist in Islamist groups, teaches at the University of Michigan. A full version of his interview with Abu Bakar Bashir appears on the website of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation
Reference: "The Emir: An Interview with Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, Alleged Leader of the Southeast Asian Jemaah Islamiyah Organization," can be found at: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2369782
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