**LEAD STORY**
The Federal Bureau of Investigation on Sunday released its preliminary statistics from its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. This report includes crime statistics from law enforcement agencies in the United States for 1995.
On one hand, the numbers were very good -- showing a two percent decrease in overall crime in 1995. This was the fourth consecutive year of an overall decrease. Violent crime categories, which include: murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, showed a four percent drop. The largest single category decrease was in murder -- which was down by eight percent.
On the other hand, while virtually all crime categories were down, theft showed a one percent increase. This is significant because it shows what is believed to be a future overall crime trend. This will be explained as we go along.
The greatest declines in crime were in large cities with populations of more than one million people. They showed an average of a six percent decrease. In cities with populations between 500,000 and 1 million -- there was an increase of one percent in overall crime. Suburban areas had a one percent decrease, but crime in rural parts of the country rose by three percent. This may also signal a shift in crime demographics from inner-cities to suburban and rural areas.
In regional parts of the United States, the Northeast portion of the country had a very large 4 percent decrease. Crime in the Midwest dropped two percent and the South and West each showed a one percent decrease.
In the nation's largest city -- New York City -- overall crime was down by almost 15 percent in 1995. Homicides dropped by 25 percent. Since 1991, the NYPD has almost cut the murder rate by a whopping 50 percent. In 1991, almost 2,000 murders were committed in New York. There were 1.170 homicides in the city in 1995.
In a statement that was released with the figures, United States Attorney General Janet Reno said, "Today's numbers are a further indication that aroused communities and energized federal, state and local law enforcement are working together to cut crime."
In specific categories -- forcible rape was down by six percent. Robbery showed a seven percent decrease. Aggravated assault was down by three percent. In property crimes -- auto theft was down by six percent and both burglary and arson had a five percent drop.
Not all cities fared well in the report. Atlanta, Georgia, regained its title as the most violent in the nation. Overall crime in Atlanta rose by five percent in 1995. A statistical analysis of Atlanta comes up strange. First, overall crime in U.S. cities has been going down -- Atlanta went up. In 1994, violent crime in Atlanta showed a ten percent decrease. The numbers somehow reversed.
A further analysis of Atlanta's 1995 numbers shows that despite 186 murders in the city, the lowest number in ten years, it still showed a statistical increase in violent crime. Atlanta outranked similar sized cities, such as Baltimore, Miami, St. Louis and Tampa.
The numbers in Atlanta were influenced by a five percent increase in forcible rapes. There were 8,859 aggravated assaults in the city and 5,260 robberies. Thefts were up by 11 percent.
It is believed that crime in Atlanta's public housing developments are driving the statistics upward. Some of the housing projects have become major drug selling points and a haven for street gangs. A stronger effort to reduce crime in Atlanta's housing projects will be needed.
Atlanta, however, was not alone in showing an increase. Most of the larger cities in the San Francisco Bay area also showed a marked increase. Violent crime in San Francisco was up by six percent, but property crimes were down by eight percent.
In San Jose, California, violent crime shot up 12 percent. Homicides rose by 14 percent and aggravated assault was up 13 percent. Oakland, California, apparently was not included in the national UCR report because of a software problem with the police department's new computer system has delayed its reporting. Oakland said that a manual count showed a one percent decrease in homicides.
While many law enforcement officials, politicians and analysts were applauding the statistics, other analysts were sending out a warning. Not included in the UCR report was the alarming rise in violence by teenagers that appears to be skyrocketing.
The man who has been trying very hard to get the warning out is the Dean of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University in Boston, James Alan Fox. Fox said, "We are facing a bloodbath of teen violence in the years ahead that will make 1995 look like the good old days."
Fox has said before and is still saying, "This calm before the crime storm won't last much longer."
The number of teenagers will increase by 17 percent in the coming years. Between the years of 1990 and 1994, the murder rate for teenagers rose by 22 percent. Fox said, "Over the next ten years, the teen population will expand by 17 percent, because there are now 39 million children under age 10, more than we've had since the 1950's when the baby boomers were in grade school."
As previously mentioned, the theft crime category showed a one percent increase. This, according to Carnegie-Mellon University Professor Alfred Blumstein, projects the anticipated surge in crime committed by youths. The increase in theft, said Blumstein, "is the first glimmer of the impact of the next generation. Because larceny, such as bicycle theft, stealing auto parts and shoplifting, is the crime of the youngest criminals. The peak age for larcenists is 15 or 16."
Blumstein added, "In the other crimes, what's going on among teenagers is being swamped by much larger numbers of older folks who are growing out of the high crime ages and giving up crime."
Analysts and several law enforcement agencies attribute the decline in crime to the community policing program, longer prison sentences for violent criminals, crackdowns on guns, declining unemployment and just a plain intolerance for crime on behalf of the public.
Criminalists at ERRI still contend that the greatest factor for the recent statistical decrease in crime is that violent criminals are being locked up in prison for longer periods of time. Most criminals released from prison are repeat offenders. When they are in prison -- they can't commit the crimes. The prison population in the U.S. has tripled in the past twenty years.
ERRI also agrees with James Alan Fox and other experts that say that a dramatic increase in crime is expected in the near future.
Professor Fox said, "Teens are not deterred by increased incarceration. They usually aren't locked up and most don't think they will be."
(Ed. Note: The Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) applauds law enforcement agencies and officers throughout the country, for their committment and hard work. We are sure that the reported reductions in crime are, at least in part, due to their diligence. We also strongly believe that having a larger number of them "on-the-street" also contributed to this reported decrease. And, we are sure that better vehicles and equipment, computerization, and community policing schemes have made our streets safer, in at least some communities.
We at ERRI will, however, continues to monitor changes in crime patterns, offenders, and crime in general, before we feel comfortable in declaring a victory in the "War on Crime.")
(c) Emergencynet News Service, 1996, All rights Reserved.
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