Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Service-Saturday, May 2, 1998 Vol. 4 - 122

CIA SAYS CHINESE NUKES ARE AIMED AT U.S. CITIES
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The Washington Times reported on Friday that a CIA report says that 13 of China's 18 long-range strategic missiles have single nuclear warheads aimed at U.S. cities. According to an intelligence document sent to top policy-makers about two weeks ago, the 13 CSS-4 missiles aimed at the United States -- with a range of more than 8,000 miles --indicate that China views the United States as its major strategic adversary.

Bill Gertz, who reports on intelligence matters for the Times, said in his article that the remaining five CSS-4s, along with scores of other shorter-range nuclear missiles, are targeted on countries closer to China, including Russia.

China does have a number of different strategic missiles that U.S. military and intelligence officials say are targeted on the United States or U.S. military forces deployed in Asia. China also has some 25 CSS-3 missiles with ranges of more than 3,400 miles, and it is developing two new ICBMs: the 4,500-mile range DF-31 and an advanced ICBM that will be able to hit targets up to 7,000 miles away. Other Chinese nuclear missiles include the 1,750-mile-range CSS-2 and the road-mobile CSS-5, which has a range of 1,100 miles.

In 1996, a Defense Intelligence Agency report stated that China was improving its CSS-4s and other long-range missiles with upgraded guidance systems and increased accuracy, propulsion and warheads, including the use of multiple warheads.

"The Chinese have been targeting the United States for many years," said Richard Fisher, a defense analyst with the Heritage Foundation. Fisher also said that the People's Liberation Army and the communist leadership view the systems as "deterrence against the United States."

It is known that in 1996 a Chinese general told a former Pentagon official that the United States would not intervene in Beijing's dispute with Taiwan because Washington cares more about Los Angeles than Taipei, Taiwan's capital. The remark was interpreted by the former official as a threat to use a nuclear missile attack against California, and he reported it to the president's national security adviser.

Fisher said the newer Chinese medium- and short-range nuclear missiles also are a threat and are believed to be "targeted on very important American and allied facilities in Asia." He added, "These constitute strategic systems for the PLA. And they are investing a great deal of effort in modernizing them."

Fisher warned, "As the administration is seeking to enter into wider and deeper cooperation in space and missiles with China, let's not forget that China has consistently refused to join regimes of civilized behavior in the strategic nuclear arena."

According to James Hackett, a former U.S. government arms control official, China's long-range missiles have the capability of reaching most of the United States "with the possible exception of Disney World" in Florida. He added, "They have produced great big nuclear warheads for those missiles. And the only feasible use is to destroy a big city. What they have built are city-busters that are targeted on major American cities."

The United States is believed to have some of its nuclear force targeted against Chinese missile silos.

(c) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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