Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment Services-Wednesday, December 16, 1998-Vol. 4, No. 350
LEAD FOCUS
OSAMA BIN LADEN SAID TO BE BEHIND NEW THREAT - PENTAGON
PLACES GULF FORCES ON "THREATCON CHARLIE"
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - The New York Times was reporting on Wednesday that Osama bin Laden, the dissident Saudi millionaire who has repeatedly threatened the United States, has ordered an attack sometime in the next few weeks. The newspaper said U.S. intelligence learned of the plans while covertly monitoring conversations between bin Laden and his operatives.
Diplomatic sources are saying on Wednesday that the United States has launched a comprehensive review of already very tight security measures around its embassies and military installations in the Gulf region for fear of a "terrorist" attack. The sources said various new measures had been introduced in recent days around U.S. facilities in several countries including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain where the United States has a large military presence.
One source said, "They (security experts) try to vary things and move things around to make it more difficult ... Such reviews and changes are ongoing all the time...but this time there was news of a plot."
The source confirmed the New York Times report and said U.S. intelligence had monitored conversations between bin Laden in Afghanistan and some of his supporters in which a plot was discussed.
Although a standard State Department warning statement referred to possible attacks in the Gulf, diplomatic sources in Kuwait said renewed attacks against "soft U.S. targets" elsewhere in the world were not excluded.
Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) senior analyst Clark Staten agreed, "Since Bin Laden has the greatest number of his assets in the Mid-East and Asia, and his anger is directed as U.S. forces in the Gulf region, that is probably his most likely target." "But, that shouldn't exclude the possibility of Mr. Bin Laden choosing a 'soft-target' elsewhere, including within the continental United States," Staten said. "Given Bin Laden's history, and his repeated threats of retaliation against the U.S., I would take these most current threats most seriously...and would urge caution and increased preparedness," he added. Staten, who has been studying Bin Laden for more than three years, correctly identified him as the mastermind behind the U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, within 36 hours of their occurrence.
The Pentagon said on Tuesday that U.S. military forces in the Gulf have been placed on high alert based on "significant, credible evidence" of possible imminent terrorist action against Americans in the region. The statement by U.S. Defense Department spokesman Ken Bacon in response to questions came a day after the State Department said U.S. diplomats and citizens in seven Gulf states could be in danger of attack, possibly within 30 days.
Bacon said, "Most of our forces in the Gulf are now in a threat condition called 'Charlie,' which is the third out of four threat conditions. The definition of 'ThreatCon Charlie' is that an incident has occurred or intelligence has been received indicating that some form of terrorist action is imminent." He said the next-to-highest level of U.S. military alert meant that troops would be largely confined to bases, would not move about in significant numbers and would be told to vary their movements when off base.
The DoD spokesman said: "We believe that we have significant, credible intelligence suggesting the possibility of imminent terrorist action in the Middle Eastern region." Bacon declined to be more specific, except to say that it covered the Gulf. He added, "We have increased our alert posture and we are taking other actions. Commanders will take a variety of steps to reduce the exposure of troops."
The United States has 24,100 military personnel in the Gulf region, including 2,400 Army troops in Kuwait. More than 5,000 Air Force personnel are in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and thousands of sailors and Marines are on 22 U.S. warships in the region.
Both the Defense and State departments officially refused to comment on reports that bin Laden might be at the center of the new threat. Bacon was asked on Tuesday about reports that bin Laden might be seriously ill, but he declined to confirm or deny them. He said, "I am aware of those reports and they are interesting reports. I think that when it comes to intelligence, it is better not to discuss the intelligence reports."
Previous EmergencyNet News Reports on
Osama Bin Laden
Nov. 5, 1998 - Indictments Announced; United States Puts $5 Million Bounty on Osama bin Laden's Head
Aug. 31, 1998 - Op/Ed; International Terrorism; Where Do We Go From Here?
June 30, 1998 - ERRI TERRORIST GROUP PROFILE - SPECIAL REPORT; ERRI Risk Assessment Services
July 25, 1997 - Vol. 3, No. 206 -- Osama Bin Laden Bides His Time; To Strike The U.S. Again?
February 21, 1997 - Vol. 3, No. 052 -- Saudi Dissident and Fundamentalist Supporter Threatens U.S.
(C) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998. All Rights Reserved. Further redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Corporate Security/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.
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