Economic Turmoil in Asia Raises Security Concerns

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EmergencyNet News Special Report

01/22/98 - 10:30CST

Economic Turmoil in Asia Raises Security Concerns
By: Clark Staten, ERRI Sr. Analyst

Thailand

Workers were warned yesterday to expect tough action by Thai government forces if they continued to take part in unruly protests supporting various labor movements.

The warning came after riot police and volunteers broke up a violent demonstration early yesterday by hundreds of employees of a auto parts company on the outskirts of the capital, injuring dozens and causing the arrests of 58 people. At least 12 policemen were also hurt in the melee.

It was the first time in several years that police had used force to disperse protesters, signalling a tougher stand against unrest as the country goes through its worst economic crisis in decades.

Indonesia

Jakarta's military has raised the spectre of an emerging "communist threat," following a bomb blast in the capital over the weekend.

Authorities said a bomb exploded in an apartment, in the capital, as it was being completed by an alleged 30-year-old member of an outlawed youth organization -- the People's Democratic Party. Police claim to have found several detonators, unfinished explosive devices and terrorist instruction texts in the apartment.

A senior army official was quoted as saying that "We consider communism to be a latent danger," but that the young communists may be exploiting current circumstances in Indonesia for purposes of facilitating a resurrection of the communist movement.

Authorities have also linked members of the "Peoples Democratic Party" to a string of recent riots -- claims denied by its jailed leaders. Tensions remain high in Jakarta as the rupiah continues to slide, raising fears of further price rises, hoarding of staple goods, and greater civil unrest.

PHILIPPINES

In the first signs of unrest over price increases due to the Asian currency crisis, gunmen on Tuesday fired shots at the Government's Energy Regulatory Board and threw a grenade at the headquarters of the country's largest oil company, Petron, which is jointly owned by the Government and Saudi Arabia's Aramco Corp.

No one was injured in the early morning attacks, which police suspect were committed by communist rebels. The latest attacks followed recent warnings from an economy minister that growing pessimism over the country's chances of weathering the financial turmoil could pose serious security risks.

Senior presidential adviser Ramon Montano blamed the attacks on "people who want to destabilise government and get political mileage out of this crisis".

ERRI Analysis

Unfortunately, reports like these are flooding in from various parts of the Asia and the Pacific Rim. Company failures leading to layoffs, coupled with currency devauation, which leads to increasing food and fuel prices can cause increasing civil unrest and violent demands for a return to the booming prosperity of the past five years in Asia.

Analysts at the Emergency Response & Research Institute say that they fear that opportunistic separatist and militant organizations will use the latest economic turmoil as justification for further provocation of civil unrest and terrorist attacks. Both Moslem extremist and Neo-communist forces can be expected to participate in these potentially destabalizing actions against existing governments. If history serves us well, any number of splinter groups will use the latest bad news in Asia to further their political and ideological goals. Extremists and militants thrive on the chaos that can be caused by Asia's economic woes.

Only rapid intervention by the international monetary fund, extensive government reforms, an end to corruption, and effective fiscal policies in the future can rescue these former Asian powerhouses from this evolving disintegration. Economic and security experts say that they had better begin these reforms sooner than later. To do otherwise could prove disasterous.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/ Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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