Emergency.Blog

Sunni vrs. Shi'ite in Baghdad, Iraq - Conflict Map

Sunni vrs. Shi'ite in Iraq - Conflict Map

Source: http://www.mapsofwar.com/index.html

September, 2006. There now exists an 'arc' of domination by Shiite militias in the north of Baghdad. Sunni militias have carved out a few enclaves in Baghdad's south, and are now expanding into nearby areas. The pieces of the puzzle are slowly aligning themselves as Iraq's sectarian divide widens.

Predictions for the near future:

(1) Azamiyah is being surrounded and will eventually fall into Shiite control.

(2) The Sunnis are pursuing territorial ambitions to consolidate their control in the southern areas of Sadiyah, Dora, and Muradiyah. This will lead to a new 'river war' between the Sunni and the Shiite militias on the opposite sides of the Tigris.

(3) The growth of these 'neighborhood coalitions' will marginalize the influence of the soldiers and politicians in the Green Zone.

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Lt. Col. "Buzz" Patterson (audio) interview on Saddam Hussein's links to terrorism, GWOT, Iraq and the role of bloggers

Lt. Col. "Buzz" Patterson (audio) interview on Saddam Hussein's links to terrorism, GWOT, Iraq and the role of bloggers

Lt. Col. "Buzz" Patterson, author of 3 books and top military advisor to President Clinton, recently made himself available for an extended interview with Regime of Terror. Patterson called upon his military/intelligence contacts and background as he talked about al-Qaeda's strength during 90's and today, the war in Iraq and wider Global War on Terror, bloggers and Saddam Hussein's support of terrorism.
Patterson predicts that the intelligence paper of the former Iraq regime, currently held in the HARMONY database and elsewhere, will "connect a lot of the dots" on Saddam Hussein's links to terrorism.
Lt. Col. Patterson also discusses al-Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri's trip to Baghdad in 1998 (in which he received $300,000, possibly from Saddam Hussein himself), Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's medical trip to Baghdad in 2002 and the terrorist training that took place in the Salman Pak camp.
His new book, "War Crimes: The Left's Campaign to Destroy Our Military and Lose the War on Terror ", is available for pre-order through amazon.com and is set for a January 16, 2007 release.
Interview is also available for download here.

URL: http://regimeofterror.com/archives/2006/08/interview_with_lt_col_buzz_pat/

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Editor's note: Also in this interview (link above), LtCol. Patterson discusses the Operation Bojinka Plot in the Philippines that involved Ramzi Yousef and a plan to bomb airplanes in mid-air, over the Pacific ocean. Various modifications of this plan have also been attributed to other more recent plots, including a recent London scheme to bomb U.S. airplanes leaving the U.K. and traveling across the Atlantic to the USA.

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ERRI's Clark Staten first compared the London plot to Operation Bojinka within hours of the announcement of police raids in London, on Thursday, August 10, 2006, at 03:33:31 AM CDT. That news release read:

VERY Preliminary Analysis of U.K. Terror Plot
By Paul Anderson, Correspondent

CHICAGO, IL: ERRI CEO and Senior Analyst Clark Staten said today that as preliminary details begin to filter in, the situation involved in the terrorist plot in the United Kingdom increasingly sounds just like a 1995 Al-Qaeda terror operation called "Bojinka."
Operation Bojinka was a plot to destroy 11 airliners on January 21 and 22, 1995. It was was developed by Al-Qaida operatives Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Shaikh Mohammed while they were in Manila, Philippines in 1994 and early 1995.
Six years before the Sept. 11 attacks, Philippine police took down an al Qaeda cell in Manila that, among other things, had been plotting to fly liquid explosives-laden planes into the Pentagon -- and possibly some skyscrapers. The CIA knew about the plot, known as Operation Bojinka. So did the FBI. "We told the Americans about the plans to turn planes into flying bombs as far back as 1995," a Philippine inspector says.

The bombs - January 1995

The "Mark II" "microbombs" had Casio digital watches as the timers, stabilizers that looked like cotton wool balls, and an undetectable nitroglycerin as the explosive.
Other ingredients included 5 milliliters of glycerin, xx ml of nitrate, xx ml of sulfuric acid, and minute concentrations of nitrobenzene, silver azide (silver nitride), and liquid acetone. Two 9-Volt batteries in each bomb were used as a power source.
The batteries would be connected to light bulb filaments that would detonate the bomb. The batteries were taken from children's toys. The watch was a database watch that had no arms. Murad and Yousef wired a SCR as the switch to trigger the filiments to detonate the bomb. There was an external socket hidden when the wires were pushed under the watch base as the bomber would wear it. The alteration was so small that the watch could still be worn in a normal manner.
Yousef got batteries past airport security during his December 11 test bombing of Philippine Airlines Flight 434 by hiding them in hollowed-out heels of his shoes. Yousef smuggled the nitroglycerin on board by putting it inside a contact lens solution bottle.
Staten said that the exact type of devices to be used in this most recent plot in England have not been confirmed, but sources close to the investigation are telling EmergencyNet News that the explosives to be used were "liquid chemicals" * that were to be carried on-board the planes in carry-on baggage.
EmergencyNet News continues to monitor events in England very closely and we will bring you updates as circumstances warrant..."

* Postscript: It was later found that the liquid bombs probably contained a TAPT-type substance...please see reference w/ graphics elsewhere on our blog, click here.

Additional references:

Series of EmergencyNet News "Real-Time" Reports Concerning An Attempted Bombing of American Airlines Flt. 63; 22 Dec 2001 to 08 Jan 2002, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2001/AA-63_bomb.htm

Peripheral Link: Thursday 12th April 2002, Emerging Asian Threat: Riduan Isamuddin (Hambali) -- The Next Terrorist Mastermind??, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2002/hambali.htm

Iran Now Ready for Talks; Facing Sanctions?

Iran Now Ready for Talks; Facing Sanctions? (Video) APTN (APTN), World Tue 22 Aug 2006 05:58 PM EDT An Iranian negotiator said Iran is ready for what he calls "serious" talks, but a a semi-official news agency in Tehran says the government won't stop its uranium enrichment program. (Aug. 22) (Video requires .mpg player and will open in new window.)

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

29 Jul 2006

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

By C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst

CHICAGO, IL: Iran and Ahmadinejad, just like any other "small-time bully," continue to believe that they are "winning" in the current multi-dimensional conflict in the Middle-East. We believe that Iran will continue its aggression in the region until it suffers a devastating defeat that awakens isolated and arrogant Iranian leaders to their very real vulnerability. Our most current analysis would suggest that they are currently winning, at least some extent. In this case, Tehran -- through its surrogate Hezbollah -- can win simply by "not losing."

Each day that Hezbollah continues their attacks on Israel, they gain credibility and political capitol in Tehran and Syria and visibility in the rest of the world. And...more importantly...they demonstrate that a committed and well armed "insurgent group," using unconventional weapons and tactics, can undertake attacks on a nation-state, without being immediately destroyed. This situation does not bode well for the future as a recognized terror organization show that they can engage in military acts that were previously limited only to countries.

How and why is this happening? Many experts, including those at ERRI, say that the rocket and terror attacks being carried out by Hezbollah is an example of 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare), or asymmetric warfare. Furthermore, and maybe more important in the overall equation, are the political and moral restraints being placed on Israel by other countries...many of whom either have a vested interest in selling weapons to the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah...or have political or religious conflicts with Tel Aviv.

While the number of different facets involved in this situation is staggering, the reality is that the Palestinians have essentially lost their battle in Intifada I and II. They were unable to defeat Israel or cause a change in their policies. Many of the former Palestinian leaders are either dead or in jail. Those left have fled to Damascus, Syria or are hiding in Syria, Lebanon, or Iran. The first tier of Palestinian "resistance to occupation" has now become almost irrelevant in the "larger game," though Islamo-facists continue to trumpet the "liberation of Palestinian lands," as their stated objective.

So, a second tier of combatants emerges...this time it is Hezbollah. Hezbollah, an organization that believes it successfully forced Israel out of Lebanon, rises as it is trained and armed for six years by a sponsors of a "holy war" to regain Islamic control of the Middle-East and ultimately to establish a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

The main causes of the conflict in the Middle-East have not yet been addressed:

▫ In our considered opinion, one of the major goals of this struggle is an attempt to establish the hegemony of Iran in the region. Please also remember that it is a publicly stated objective of Iran and Ahmadinejad to assure the complete destruction of Israel.

▫ Secondarily, there are also strong under-current of conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni branches of Islam as Tehran tries to assume control of the region and religion. This divergence is presently most evident in Iraq, where the Shi'ites and Sunnis have engaged in "tit-for-tat" attacks against each other since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

▫ Third, this is a geo-political battle that involves the overall distribution of land in the Middle-East. Jihadists believe that the entire region should be a bastion of Islam, without the taint of any other religion. Israelis and others believe that the Middle-East should be made up of "liberal democracies' that are tolerant of many religions. To the Islamists, politics are religion and religion is politics. The theocracy in Tehran should adequately demonstrate the Islamic model of an ideal "political-religious state." It is a model they want to export to other countries in the region.

▫ Finally, our assessment implies that the bewildering situation in the Middle-East is far more complex and difficult to explain than the limited space for this article allows. We will continue to monitor events in the Mid-East closely and bring you additional reports as the circumstances warrant...

Hezbollah's Arsenal; It's more lethal than everyone thought (?)

Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, EmergencyNet News Service, Sunday, July 23, 2006, Vol. 12, No. 203

MID-EAST CONFLICT

Hezbollah's Arsenal; It's more lethal than everyone thought (?)

"MID-EAST: As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to escalate in Lebanon, one of the most alarming discoveries since the beginning of the fighting has been the variety, as well as the capabilities, of the weaponry employed by Hezbollah.

Under the apt headline "Arming of Hezbollah Reveals U.S. and Israeli Blind Spots," the New York Times recently provided a sense of just how powerful Hezbollah has become since the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. As the Times explained, "the power and sophistication of the missile and rocket arsenal that Hezbollah has used in recent days has caught the United States and Israel off guard . . . both countries are just now learning the extent to which the militant group has succeeded in getting weapons from Iran and Syria."

There is good reason to be concerned. Since the fighting began, Hezbollah has inflicted more damage on Israel than Saddam Hussein's Iraq was able to inflict on Kuwait during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hezbollah has deployed a range of extremely sophisticated weapons against Israel. The most notable has been the Iranian C-802 Noor (Tondar) variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile that was used against an Israeli gunship off the Lebanese coast. Four Israeli sailors were killed, and the gunship was put out of commission.

The Associated Press reports that "Iran is believed to have supplied Hezbollah with up to 120 Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets, with ranges of 22 miles and 45 miles respectively," noting that it was a Fajr-3 that is thought to have been responsible for an attack on Haifa that killed 8 civilians. More recently, Israeli military officials have sought to destroy sites in Lebanon believed to house long-range Zelzal missiles of Iranian manufacture that they suspect are capable of hitting Tel Aviv. And while early reports that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was responsible for the attack on the Israeli warship were inaccurate, Hezbollah is still assumed to possess several UAVs.

Nor is Iran Hezbollah's only source of weaponry. The New York Times quoted anonymous officials as saying that "some of the rockets in Hezbollah's arsenal--including a 220-millimeter rocket used in a deadly attack on a railway site in Haifa on Sunday--were built in Syria. . . . Officials have since confirmed that the warhead on the Syrian rocket was filled with ball bearings--a method of destruction used frequently in suicide bombings but not in warhead technology." An intelligence official was quoted in the article as saying, "We've never seen anything like this."

Given the apparent intelligence failure surrounding both Hezbollah's acquisition of this advanced weaponry and the willingness of Iran and Syria to supply it, the question whether the capabilities displayed to date by Hezbollah represent the full extent and scope of its arsenal may be worth raising.

Moreover, even the group's more mundane weapons have undergone numerous improvements. The Times reports that U.S. and Israeli intelligence were "surprised by the advances that Hezbollah had made in improving what had been crude rockets--for example, attaching cluster bombs as warheads, or filling an explosive shell with ball bearings that have devastating effect."

While some of these advances have come about through experience and murderous innovation, it is undeniable that Hezbollah would not be able to threaten Israel to the degree that it does without the full and active support of Syria and Iran. Clearly, contrary to the prognostications of many, state sponsorship still plays a major role in the amount of force that a terrorist group like Hezbollah can bring to bear against Israel. This is particularly true if, as Time magazine reported on its website in June, Hezbollah's long-range weapons are "under the direct command of officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guards," the elite branch of the Iranian military.

According to the New York Times's unnamed intelligence sources, Revolutionary Guards probably "trained Hezbollah fighters on how to successfully fire and guide the missiles."

Given the sophistication and variety of Hezbollah's weapons and the role of Syria and Iran in supplying them, any lasting solution to the situation in Lebanon must involve the full disarmament or destruction of Hezbollah's arsenal, with a firm understanding that it will not be reconstituted."

-- Source: Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard, 07/31/2006, Volume 011, Issue 43

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Analyst note On Hezbollah Weapons

by C. L. Staten, ERRI analyst

CHICAGO, IL: It should be remembered that most of the weapons being used by Hezbollah in the current conflict were previously only available to a "nation-state," and were designed to be used in full-blown land conflict. Weapons that were originally designed to attack mass formations of (mounted and unmounted) troops are now being used to target innocent civilian populations

It would be our considered opinion that this is another step of the evolution of terrorism, asymmetric and/or 4th Generation warfare (4GW). What we are seeing is a transformation of "terrorist organizations" into something far more powerful and capable of inflicting massive damage and major loss of life. We believe that the ultimate effect of these latest events will eventually be shown to be "profound."

Furthermore, those who have been monitoring and reporting on weapons development in Iran/China/Russia and N. Korea are not surprised by the fact that the weapons mentioned above actually exist. In fact, ERRI and other experts are well aware of the capabilities of these weapons. The only matter of conjecture was whether or not these missiles/rockets had been transferred to Hezbollah. Recent events in the Middle-East would seem to remove any doubt about that, and confirm that more of these "stand-off" type weapons are in the hands of terror organizations than ever before.

[ERRI analysts first warned of this trend in January of 2004, when we said: "Increasingly, militants (except suicide/ homicide bombers) are reluctant to directly engage U.S. and Coalition military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, they are using indirect fire weapons such as unguided rockets, mortars, and IEDs. They believe that this allows them a better opportunity to escape the wrath of return fire by coalition forces." -- Source: Powerpoint, "World-Wide Terrorism; Predictive Analysis: January, 2004," By C. L. Staten, CEO and Sr. Analyst, Emergency Response & Research Institute.

[Editor's note: Please be advised that there appear to be some "technical errors" in the narrative about some of the weapons described above. We did not feel it appropriate to edit/correct the author's text in this review of it.]

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Confirmed: Abu Musab al-Zaqawi Killed in U.S. Task Force Raid

BREAKING NEWS - 08 Jun 2006 - 07:00CDT

EmergencyNet News Instant Update

Confirmed: Abu Musab al-Zaqawi Killed in U.S. Task Force Raid

WASHINGTON: U.S. officials have confirmed that the top al-Qaeda terrorist in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zaqawi was killed in a U.S. Task force bombing raid on Wednesday.

The raid was conducted in Baghdad after U.S. Intelligence received credible information that al-Zarqawi was meeting there with his spiritual advisor. al-Zarqawi was a Salafi Muslim militant who in September 2005 declared an all-out war on Shia Muslims in Iraq.

Zarqawi was a long time ally of Osama bin Laden and high-ranking member of the al-Qaeda terrorist network. His own organization, Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, was widely referred to as “al-Qaeda in Iraq”. Watch EmergencyNet News for additional information...

Command of the Grill Contest - Charity

20 May 2006

Marine Corp: Command of the Grill

NEW YORK CITY, NY: In 2005, active duty and reserve Marines at 10 military installations around the country took up their tongs in the ultimate battle of the barbecue. They marinated, seared, and sauced in an all-out battle for top grilling honors. This book showcases the winning recipes from the competition, along with steak recipes from famous former Marines like Lee Trevino and Ed McMahon.

They came. They saw. They grilled. Nearly 100 active duty and reserve Marines competed in a Command of the Grill™ competition at one of ten military installations around the country including Camp Pendleton and MCB Quantico. The ten winners of the semi-final contests will compete in an ultimate grill-off May 25, 2006, in Times Square in New York City.

All proceeds from the sale of the book go to charities that support wounded or killed U.S. Marines and their families. Want to learn more:
http://www.commandofthegrill.com/index.html

[Per usual, ERRI/EmergencyNet News did not receive ANY compensation, of ANY kind, in regard to the publication of this brief article. In fact, the inclusion was largely due to the fact that our CEO is both a military veteran and a Webber grill aficionado. Have a great weekend and enjoy a steak with your family or friends!]