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Sunni vrs. Shi'ite in Baghdad, Iraq - Conflict Map

Sunni vrs. Shi'ite in Iraq - Conflict Map

Source: http://www.mapsofwar.com/index.html

September, 2006. There now exists an 'arc' of domination by Shiite militias in the north of Baghdad. Sunni militias have carved out a few enclaves in Baghdad's south, and are now expanding into nearby areas. The pieces of the puzzle are slowly aligning themselves as Iraq's sectarian divide widens.

Predictions for the near future:

(1) Azamiyah is being surrounded and will eventually fall into Shiite control.

(2) The Sunnis are pursuing territorial ambitions to consolidate their control in the southern areas of Sadiyah, Dora, and Muradiyah. This will lead to a new 'river war' between the Sunni and the Shiite militias on the opposite sides of the Tigris.

(3) The growth of these 'neighborhood coalitions' will marginalize the influence of the soldiers and politicians in the Green Zone.

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ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

29 Jul 2006

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

By C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst

CHICAGO, IL: Iran and Ahmadinejad, just like any other "small-time bully," continue to believe that they are "winning" in the current multi-dimensional conflict in the Middle-East. We believe that Iran will continue its aggression in the region until it suffers a devastating defeat that awakens isolated and arrogant Iranian leaders to their very real vulnerability. Our most current analysis would suggest that they are currently winning, at least some extent. In this case, Tehran -- through its surrogate Hezbollah -- can win simply by "not losing."

Each day that Hezbollah continues their attacks on Israel, they gain credibility and political capitol in Tehran and Syria and visibility in the rest of the world. And...more importantly...they demonstrate that a committed and well armed "insurgent group," using unconventional weapons and tactics, can undertake attacks on a nation-state, without being immediately destroyed. This situation does not bode well for the future as a recognized terror organization show that they can engage in military acts that were previously limited only to countries.

How and why is this happening? Many experts, including those at ERRI, say that the rocket and terror attacks being carried out by Hezbollah is an example of 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare), or asymmetric warfare. Furthermore, and maybe more important in the overall equation, are the political and moral restraints being placed on Israel by other countries...many of whom either have a vested interest in selling weapons to the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah...or have political or religious conflicts with Tel Aviv.

While the number of different facets involved in this situation is staggering, the reality is that the Palestinians have essentially lost their battle in Intifada I and II. They were unable to defeat Israel or cause a change in their policies. Many of the former Palestinian leaders are either dead or in jail. Those left have fled to Damascus, Syria or are hiding in Syria, Lebanon, or Iran. The first tier of Palestinian "resistance to occupation" has now become almost irrelevant in the "larger game," though Islamo-facists continue to trumpet the "liberation of Palestinian lands," as their stated objective.

So, a second tier of combatants emerges...this time it is Hezbollah. Hezbollah, an organization that believes it successfully forced Israel out of Lebanon, rises as it is trained and armed for six years by a sponsors of a "holy war" to regain Islamic control of the Middle-East and ultimately to establish a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

The main causes of the conflict in the Middle-East have not yet been addressed:

▫ In our considered opinion, one of the major goals of this struggle is an attempt to establish the hegemony of Iran in the region. Please also remember that it is a publicly stated objective of Iran and Ahmadinejad to assure the complete destruction of Israel.

▫ Secondarily, there are also strong under-current of conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni branches of Islam as Tehran tries to assume control of the region and religion. This divergence is presently most evident in Iraq, where the Shi'ites and Sunnis have engaged in "tit-for-tat" attacks against each other since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

▫ Third, this is a geo-political battle that involves the overall distribution of land in the Middle-East. Jihadists believe that the entire region should be a bastion of Islam, without the taint of any other religion. Israelis and others believe that the Middle-East should be made up of "liberal democracies' that are tolerant of many religions. To the Islamists, politics are religion and religion is politics. The theocracy in Tehran should adequately demonstrate the Islamic model of an ideal "political-religious state." It is a model they want to export to other countries in the region.

▫ Finally, our assessment implies that the bewildering situation in the Middle-East is far more complex and difficult to explain than the limited space for this article allows. We will continue to monitor events in the Mid-East closely and bring you additional reports as the circumstances warrant...

Top Five World Economic Terror Targets

15 May 2006

Sidebar: Top Five World Economic Terror Targets

May 15, 2006: Al Qaeda has made it clear that it plans to defeat its enemies by destroying their economies. In theory, they can do a lot of damage. That's because there are five targets that, if destroyed or seriously damaged, would do significant economic damage to some of the world's most powerful economies. Some of them you may have never heard about, but Islamic terrorists have.

** Abqaiq Oil Processing Complex: This Saudi Arabian facility cleans up 6.8 million barrels of Saudi oil a day, and pumps it out to ship loading facilities. Abqaiq is one of the best guarded sites in the world. An unsuccessful al Qaeda assault last February resulted in security being improved still further. If Abqaiq were put out of action, the al Saud family, and the Saudi economy, would be in great danger.

** The Strait of Malacca is the narrow seaway providing the quickest passage between the Pacific and Indian oceans. Some 20 percent of all world trade moves through these straits, aboard some 130 ships a day. Lots of pirate activity, and sea traffic is vulnerable to naval mines and sinking large ships in shallower channels. This would disrupt some traffic. Near total shutdown of the straits would cause economic disruption worldwide, and especially in East Asia. Shipping costs would go up and there would be lots of shipping delays. Ultimate economic costs would run into the hundreds of billion dollars.

** The Druzhba Pipeline is, at 4,000 kilometers, the longest in the world. It travels through southern Russia, close to the volatile Caucasus. The pipeline supplies Ukraine and points west, including Germany. Moving 1.2 million barrels a day, taking it out of service would cripple the economies it supplies.

** The Strait of Hormuz are 34 kilometers wide, and each day 17 million barrels of oil pass through aboard tankers. The Straits are vulnerable to Iranian anti-ship missiles (bought from China) and naval mines. Terrorists could also plant naval mines, which are available on the black market.

** The Suez Canal is a smaller version of the Strait of Malacca, but is more vulnerable. At its narrowest point, it's only a thousand feet wide. Sink one or more ships, and 1.3 million barrels of oil has to find a different route each day, as well as millions of tons of other cargo. Worse, the canal is a major portion of the Egyptian economy. Thus a canal shut down could cause widespread political unrest in Egypt.

-- Source: http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htterr/articles/20060515.aspx