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U.S. Studies Osama Bin Laden Video, CIA warns of Al-Qaeda plots

U.S. Studies Osama Bin Laden Video, CIA warns of Al-Qaeda plots

Posted: 08 September 2007 0350 hrs

WASHINGTON, DC: The US government said on Friday it was analyzing a copy of the latest video message from Osama bin Laden as the CIA warned Al-Qaeda was plotting fresh attacks on the United States designed to inflict massive casualties.

US authorities were examining a video said to be a message from Osama marking Tuesday's anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington that killed nearly 3,000 people, a senior US official said.

"I can confirm that USG has the video and it is currently being analyzed," a senior administration official told AFP, referring to the US government.

The video, reported late Thursday by US-based monitors that follow militant websites, would be the first such appearance by the Saudi extremist since October 2004, when he threatened new attacks against the United States just days before a US election.

CIA Threat Assessment

CIA Director Michael Hayden meanwhile warned in a speech that the intelligence agency believed Al-Qaeda was planning new, large-scale attacks on US targets.

"Our analysts assess with high confidence that Al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," Hayden told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Al-Qaeda is focusing on targets that would produce mass casualties, dramatic destruction and significant economic aftershocks," he added.

Original Discovery & Translation

The Al-Qaeda network's media arm, as-Sahab, announced the purported Osama video in a notice posted on jihadist forums at about 2115 GMT, according to SITE, a group which monitors extremist websites.

"Soon, God willing, a videotape from the lion sheikh Osama bin Laden, God preserve him," the notice in Arabic read.

A website used by Islamist militants that carried the notice showed a photo of Osama in which his black beard did not have the usual streaks of gray.

He was also not wearing a camouflage jacket as in some previous appearances. Instead, the top-half photo showed him wearing a white robe topped by a beige cloak, similar to the traditional dress of men in the Gulf region, and looking more like a Muslim cleric than a fighter.

The video of the soft-spoken Al-Qaeda leader, who has claimed credit for the 9/11 attacks, will be examined intently with every word and visual detail dissected by intelligence agencies in Washington and around the world....This Article continues at: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/298563/1/.html

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  ERRI Preliminary Assessment

CHICAGO, IL: While reviewing both the 07 Sep 2007 video-tape of Usama Bin Laden, and the transcript thereof...ERRI counter-terrorism analysts said that they were immediately impressed by both things that were contained in the video, and those that were was not on the tape:

Observations

1. Bin Laden's beard was one of the first and most apparent visual changes that was seen in this most recent as-Sahab publication. It had gone from long, untrimmed and grey, to trimmed and as dark as it was in some of his earlier pictures. Was this done to depict him as a younger, more healthy, and robust person?

2. Bin laden's clothing in this lateest tape was the second thing noticed by ERRI analysts. He is seen no longer was wearing the clothes of a battlefield commander, to include a camoflage jacket that he worn in many previous tapes and pictures. In this latest tape, he was seen wearing the clothes of the contemporary Middle-East citizen or those that might be worn by a modestly successful imam.

3. What was missing? ERRI analysts said that no weapon was displayed in this 09/07 tape. Bin Laden's normal image in previous tapes was almost always accompanied by that of a highly modified AK-47 assault rifle. It was omni-present in past tapes. In this latest tape, no weapon is displayed. Is this a "kinder," "gentler" Bin Laden?

4. Is the person depicted in the tape actually Bin Laden? Some physical changes in the person on the tape deserve more scrutiny, as they appear different than those in the most recently verified image of Mr. Bin Laden.

Discusssion of the Transcript

At least two ERRI analysts said that they wondered if these were Bin Laden's original words, or had they been written for him? Writing comparisons caused one analyst to even suggest that this speech may have even been written by Adam Yahive Gadahn, a.k.a. Azzam-the American (Azz?m al-Amr?ki), and simply read by Bin Laden. The tone, tenor, and idom of this speech appear somewhat different than some previous Bin Laden speeches. There are also fewer references to classic Islamic thought, and more attention given by Bin Laden to modern-day issues.

In this dissertation, he sounds even more political and less threatening than in past diatribes...to include the fact that there is no direct threat of any terrorist act in the speech. His purpose appears to be political division and to attempt to convince the world of both the rightenous of his cause as well as the illegitimacy of the position of the United States.

Furthermore, Bin Laden undertakes comment on many issues that would be seen as "partisian-politics" within the United States, taking a position in contradiction to that of the current administration in Washington. Many of Mr. Bin Laden's comments also appear consistent with extreme leftist/socialist/communist thought. And, UBL also takes what appears to be taking an anticapitalist/anti-globalist position...with his allegations and strong condemnation of corporate America.

His most current statements would again seem to make it clear that at least one of Mr. Bin Laden's stated objectives is to try to destroy the Western democracies via economic means. And finally, and most of all...his speech seems designed to promote further acrimony and divisiveness within the United States.

Food for Thought

Is Mr. Bin Laden running for some kind of office? Does his image change indicate that he now wants to be "a politician" rather than a holy warrior? Is it becoming clearer that Bin Laden actually wants to be "Caliph" of an emerging caliphate that he and Mr. Zawahiri have been planning for a long time? Or, is his image change just designed to make his propaganda more palatable to Europe and segments of the America population? Right now, there are more questions than answers about Mr. Bin Laden's latest video production.

Additional ERRI analysis will be forthcoming and additional facts will become apparent. Watch this page for more on this developing story...