November 2008

Daring Mumbai attacks reveal any city's vulnerability

Thu Nov 27, 2008 8:22pm IST

ANALYSIS - Daring Mumbai attacks reveal any city's vulnerability

By Luke Baker

LONDON (Reuters) - Whatever group lies behind the attacks in Mumbai, security experts say one thing has been made abundantly clear: a massive city can be reduced to mayhem if a group of men is well-enough armed and prepared to die.

Rather than hijacking planes as in Sept. 11, or smuggling delicately wired car bombs into a city, the Mumbai gunmen chose a frontal style of armed assault, killing more than 100 people, wounding around 250 and causing immense panic in a thriving city of 13 million.

Security specialists say the attack was probably months in the planning and appears to have been finely tuned in its execution, but it ultimately relied on only an estimated 25 gunmen lightly armed with assault rifles and hand-grenades.

Their ability to roam around and sustain the attack, while all the while being willing to die in the onslaught, made it all the more difficult to combat and far more drawn out than an instantaneous suicide bomb attack might have been.

"It's virtually impossible to stop 20 guys with guns from attacking anywhere in the world if they are prepared to die," said Sajjan Gohel, an analyst with the Asia-Pacific Foundation, an independent security and intelligence group based in London.

"That is the thing about the fedayeen strategy," he said, using an Arabic term used to describe self-sacrificial gunmen who have operated in Iraq, Kashmir and across the Muslim world.

"It's even more effective than a suicide mission. With a suicide mission, you blow up your explosives and you're gone. With a fedayeen attack, you try to last out as long as possible, killing as many people as possible," he told Reuters...

-- Source/continues: http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/
idINIndia-36745520081127

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ERRI Retrospective - 1998

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Who's Behind the Mumbai Massacre?

Friday, Nov. 28, 2008

Who's Behind the Mumbai Massacre?

By Simon Robinson, Time Magazine

MUMBAI, INDIA: Even as the siege of Mumbai was still going on, the finger-pointing began. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said "external forces" were behind the attacks, a thinly veiled reference to India's neighbor and longtime foe Pakistan. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee went further, telling reporters that "elements with links to Pakistan" were involved. But Pakistan's president and prime minister both condemned the attacks and rejected any talk of Pakistani involvement. Pakistani officials also announced that the head of the powerful Inter Services Intelligence organization -- often accused of orchestrating terror attacks on India -- would travel to India to offer assistance in investigating the Mumbai attacks.

There has been one claim of responsibility: a group calling itself the Deccan Mujahideen, which e-mailed news organizations on Thursday claiming it had carried out the attacks. The group, previously unknown, may be connected with (or even an alias of) the Indian Mujahedeen, which claimed responsibility for several terror strikes earlier this year. Indian terror experts say that both are likely to have connections to, or simply be renamed versions of, older Indian militant groups such as the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba or the Students Islamic Movement of India.

Yet the scale and sophistication of the Mumbai attacks ? which appear to have involved dozens of militants using assault rifles, grenades and explosives to simultaneously attack multiple targets ? raise suspicions of involvement by more than one group, and if so, involving an unprecedented level of coordination.

"This is an operation of a very new type in India," writes Walid Phares on his well-respected counterterrorism blog "The 'emirs' have sent these armed elements in their 20s to strike at Indian psyche. One goal is to sink the Pakistani-Indian rapprochement. The goal is to target India as a power engaged in the war on terror but also to further destabilize the region, including Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan."

-- Source/continues: http://www.time.com/time/world/
article/0,8599,1862733,00.html

(Includes group profiles of possible terrorism groups involved in the Mumbai attacks and pictures of the various incident scenes)

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ERRI counter-terrorism analyst note: As we continue to examine the available facts that are coming in from the Mumbai incidents, it is starting to look like there may be assailants from several different countries involved.

Although we continue to maintain an open mind about the identity, organization and motive of the perpetrators, it is increasingly looking like a "hybrid" group of assailants, who may have been specially put together for this operation.

The ultimate sponsor of these attacks has not been determined at the time of this report. Speculation, so far, has focused on an off-shoot of the Indian Mujahideen, SIMI, or Lashkar-e-Toiba as possible backers of the attacks. These theories have not been confirmed by the Indian government at this time.

The level of training and organization of the synchronous and coordinated Mumbai attacks also appears to far exceed that of most recent terror events, short of those previously carried out by Al-Qaeda or its associates.

As far as we can ascertain at this time, the weapons and explosives used appear common-place and can be found in every terror training camp throughout the world.

What is different is the duration of the event, and the taking of hostages. Moreover, there are no suicide/homicide bombs...but rather attackers who are prepared to violently engage counter-terrorism forces and eventually die in the process.

Of course, the scale of this operation is staggering and was designed to grab the world's attention. It has successfully done so... Watch EmergencyNet News for more analysis, as more facts become available...

Indian Forces Assault Besieged Jewish Center in Mumbai

Thursday, November 27, 2008

URGENT: Indian Forces Assault Besieged Jewish Center in Mumbai

MUMBAI, India: Masked Indian commandos dropped from helicopters Friday onto the roof of a Jewish center in Mumbai where Muslim militants were holed up, possibly with hostages, as sharpshooters kept up a steady stream of fire at the five-story building.

The assault was punctuated by gunshots and explosions from within the building as the forces cleared the building floor-by floor. Elsewhere in the city, commandos scoured two luxury hotels for suspected Muslim attackers still holed up more than a day after a chain of attacks across India's financial center by the militants left at least 119 people dead.

Hundreds of people had been captive in the two hotels, many locking themselves in their rooms or trying to hide as the gunmen roamed the buildings...

-- Source/Continues: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,458524,00.html

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Friday, November 28, 2008

URGENT: Nearly 2 Dozen Captives Released From Mumbai Oberoi Hotel

MUMBAI, India: Masked Indian commandos dropped from helicopters Friday onto the roof of a Jewish center in Mumbai where suspected Muslim militants were holed up, possibly with hostages, as sharpshooters kept up a steady stream of fire at the five-story building.

The assault came as commandos freed nearly two dozen captives from the nearby Oberoi hotel as they searched the building for attackers still holed up more than a day after a chain of attacks across India's financial center by the militants left at least 119 people dead.

Security officials insisted their operations, which had been going on for nearly two days, were almost over. "It's just a matter of a few hours that we'll be able to wrap up things," Lt. Gen. N. Thamburaj told reporters....

-- Source/continues: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,458564,00.html

'Free our Muhajideen' demand Bombay terrorists

November 27, 2008

'Free our Muhajideen' demand Bombay terrorists

MUMBAI, INDIA: The gunmen holding dozens of hostages in two of Bombay's luxury hotels are demanding the release of 'Muhajideens' held in Indian jails before they free their prisoners.

Speaking from inside the Oberoi hotel where at least half a dozen foreigners are being held hostage the man, identifed as Sahadullah, told India TV he belonged to an Indian Islamist group seeking an end to the persecution of Indian Muslims and added: "We want all Mujahideens held in India released and only after that we will release the people."

He said: "There are seven of us inside hotel Oberoi."

The demands came as the death toll in the terror attacks rose to 101, with six foreigners among the dead, according to police. Another 287 people have been injured.

-- Story continues at the Timers of London:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5242602.ece

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ERRI ananlyst comment: These latest demands, if true, may further reinforce a theory that the Mumbai attacks may be associated with the "Indian Mujahideen" and or SIMI -- a radical Muslim student organization.

Hostage Incidents and Firing Continues in Mumbai

20:30 CST - 26 Nov 2008

Hostage Incidents and Firing Continues in Mumbai

MUMBAI, INDIA: Terror has reigned all night in the commercial city of Mumbai. Shooting and explosions have occurred at ten different locations.

Officially unconfirmed reports suggest that as many as 11 police officers have been killed in this series of attacks. Civilian casualties include as many as 87 dead and more than 180 wounded. Police say there may have been 20 or more perpetrators involved in the various incidents.

An unknown number of hostages are still being held at two hotels, according to both media and emergency service sources in India. Local media reported that gunmen were still holding dozens of hostages at two five-star hotels, the Oberoi and the Taj Mahal. Some "Westerners" may be included among the hostages, though that allegation has not been verified by official Indian sources.

A previously little-known [or unknown] organization calling itself the "Deccan Mujahideen" sent an e-mail to news organizations claiming responsibility for the attacks. ERRI counter-terrorism (CT) experts say that the group may be associated with, or an off-shoot of, the Indian Mujahideen and/or Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LeT) terror groups.

Watch EmergencyNet News for more on this still developing story...

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Emergency.Com/Emergency.Blog References:

Profile: Lashkar e-Tayyiba (Lashkar e-Toiba) [Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LT) (Also LeT)] , November 14, 2006 15:29 CST, Terrorist Group Profile; Can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/archive/2006/11/entry_25.htm

Summary and Chronology of Bombay (Mumbai) Train Bombings, 11 July 2006, Can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2006/Mumbai_train_bmbing_11Jul2006.htm

03/1/93-0600CST -- INDIAN BOMBINGS CAUSED BY "FOREIGN EXTREMISTS", ACCORDING TO POLICE, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/bombay.htm

Mumbai Death Toll Continues to Climb; At least 58 Dead

15:00 CST - 26 Nov 2008

Mumbai Death Toll Continues to Climb; At least 58 Dead

MUMBAI, INDIA (EmergencyNet News): Sketchy reports coming from India suggest that a number of hostages have been taken in at least one hotel in S. Mumbai, India. Indian police and paramilitary troops are said to have surrounded two hotels where incidents and "firefights" are still on-going at the time of this report.

Other reports, coming from medical and emergency service sources, say that at least 58 people have been killed in a series of terror attacks in India's leading banking and commerical center. Among the dead are believed to be at least five police officers, including a senior counter-terrorism official. ERRI counter-terrorism analysts said that the death toll in Mumbai is expected to continue to rise.

Terror events have occurred in a number of locations, including a cinema, train station, and tourist hotels, police officials said. Unconfirmed reports say that one or more terror cells may also be engaged in "drive-by" shootings and/or throwing grenades indiscriminately. There are reported to be at least seven (7) separate incidents or locations where attacks have taken place.

There is a fire seen burning at the the Taj Mahal hotel and there may be a concurrent hostage incident there involving "Westerners," though that has not been confirmed by Indian officials at the time of this report. There is one or more reports suggesting that the perpetrators demanded to know "where are the westerners" as they moved through a hotel.

The situation in Mumbai is still on-going at this hour and being described by police officials as "dynamic and fluid," with reports of gunshots and explosions continually being received the by emergency services...

EmergencyNet News is monitoring events in Mumbai closely and we will bring you additional updates as circumstances may warrant...

BREAKING NOW: Series of Deadly Terror Attacks Reported in India

From BBC, 18:19 GMT, Wednesday, 26 November 2008

Mumbai (Bombay) rocked by deadly shootings/Grenade Attacks
[Series of Suspected Terror Attacks Being Reported...]

INDIA: Gunmen have opened fire at a number of sites in the Indian city of Mumbai (Bombay), killing at least two people.

Police said the shootings appeared to be terrorist attacks.

A number of people were reported injured when gunmen opened fire in a train station and at a restaurant popular with tourists.

Shootings were also reported in other parts of the city near two hotels and a hospital. At least two suspected grenade attacks were reported.

Sajjad Karim, an MEP for the North West of England who is in Mumbai, told the BBC he had seen a gunman opening fire in the lobby of Taj Mahal Palace Hotel.

He said he had seen people fall before fleeing to a restaurant, where the doors had been barricaded. "All I saw was one man on foot carrying a machine gun type of weapon - which I then saw him firing from," he said.

-- Source:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7751160.stm

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ERRI counter-terrorism analysts said that other unconfirmed reports suggest that the death and injury toll may rise from what is being reported by the BBC above. Other accounts from the region say that there were "multiple people down" and that the attacks may be much worse than initially believed . The assailants have apparently targeted tourist attractions and transit systems. EmergencyNet News is gathering additional information and we will bring you more details as circumstances warrant...

FEDS: AL QAIDA PLANNING HOLIDAY SUBWAY ATTACK

Last updated: 11:28 am - November 26, 2008

FEDS: AL QAIDA PLANNING HOLIDAY SUBWAY ATTACK

From: AP/Via NY Post

WASHINGTON, DC/NEW YORK, NY: Federal authorities are warning law enforcement personnel of a possible terror plot against the New York City subway system during the holiday season.

An internal memo obtained by The Associated Press says the FBI has received a "plausible but unsubstantiated" report that Al-Qaeda terrorists in late September may have discussed attacking the subway system.

FBI spokesman Richard Kolko confirmed only that his agency and the Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin last night to state and local authorities, and the information is being reviewed.

Department of Homeland Security spokesman Russ Knocke said the warning was issued as a routine matter, but added that there may be an increased police presence in New York and other large metropolitan areas.

The report indicates that Al-Qaeda terrorists "in late September may have discussed targeting transit systems in and around New York City. These discussions reportedly involved the use of suicide bombers or explosives placed on subway/passenger rail systems," according to the document.

"We have no specific details to confirm that this plot has developed beyond aspirational planning, but we are issuing this warning out of concern that such an attack could possibly be conducted during the forthcoming holiday season," states the warning, which is dated Tuesday.

While federal agencies regularly issue all sorts of advisory warnings, the language of this one is particularly blunt.

Intelligence and homeland security officials are working with local authorities to try to corroborate the information "and will continue to investigate every possible lead," the memo says...

-- Source/continues: http://tinyurl.com/erri943

Gang Threat Could Top Al Qaeda, Mr. President-Elect

November 17, 2008 b - 11:43:00

Danger Room Debrief:
Gang Threat Could Top Al Qaeda, Mr. President-Elect

By Noah Shachtman, Wired.com

This is the second of our Danger Room Debriefs, where we ask some of the smartest folks in the military, intelligence, and homeland defense fields to outline under-the-radar security issues, and point the way towards potential, often-unorthodox solutions.

Today we hear from John P. Sullivan, the co-founder of the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning group. He's a lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department, focusing on emerging threats. Sullivan co-edited Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorism Network.

While the public and media are occupied with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the potential conflict with Iran, the downward spiral in Pakistan, and a global economic meltdown, a new, rapidly-evolving danger - narco-cartels and gangs - has been developing in Mexico and Latin America. And it has the potential to trump global terrorism as a threat to the United States.

Mexico is gripped by a set of inter-locking, networked criminal insurgencies. Daily violence, kidnappings, assassinations of police and government officials, beheadings and shoot-outs are the result of violent combat between drug cartels, gangs, and the police. The cartels vying for domination of the lucrative drug trade are seeking both market dominance and freedom from government interference. Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, and other border towns are racked with violence. Mexico City itself is not immune. An infusion of police and military remains stymied as corrupt officials chose to side with the cartels.

The drug mafias have abandoned subtle co-option of the government and are instead embracing active violence to secure safe havens to ply their trade.

This de facto 'criminal insurgency' threatens the stability of the Mexican state. As the L.A. Times noted yesterday, it is already starting to reverberate north of the Rio Grande in America. Money fuels global expansion, and transnational organized crime has learned it can thrive in the face of governmental crisis...

-- Source/continues at: http://blog.wired.com/defense/
2008/11/john-p-sullivan.html

'Top 50 Homeland Security Blogs'

E-Justice weblog identifies 'Top 50 Homeland Security Blogs'

November 11, 2008

The weblog e-Justice has posted a list of links to what the site considers to be the "Top 50 Homeland Security Blogs."

The list is divided into five categories:

· Government.

· Strategists, Theorists, and Analysts.

· Academic and Research.

· Blogs Offering a Variety of Opinions and Views.

· Homeland Security Blogs by Specific Issue.

View the "Top Fifty" list: http://www.criminaljusticeusa.com/blog/2008/top-50-homeland-security-blogs/

-- Source of this post: http://tinyurl.com/erri851

[Emergency.com Editor's note: Emergency.blog and our Homeland Security page come in at #26 & #27 on this list, under the heading of "Academic and Research Blogs."]

Internet Attacks Grow More Potent

November 9, 2008

Internet Attacks Grow More Potent

By JOHN MARKOFF, NY Times

SAN FRANCISCO, CA: Attackers bent on shutting down large Web sites -- even the operators that run the backbone of the Internet -- are arming themselves with what are effectively vast digital fire hoses capable of overwhelming the world?s largest networks, according to a new report on online security.

In these attacks, computer networks are hijacked to form so-called botnets that spray random packets of data in huge streams over the Internet. The deluge of data is meant to bring down Web sites and entire corporate networks. Known as distributed denial of service, or D.D.O.S., attacks, such cyberweapons are now routinely used during political and military conflicts, as in Estonia in 2007 during a political fight with Russia, and in the Georgian-Russian war last summer. Such attacks are also being used in blackmail schemes and political conflicts, as well as for general malicious mischief.

A survey of 70 of the largest Internet operators in North America, South America, Europe and Asia found that malicious attacks were rising sharply and that the individual attacks were growing more powerful and sophisticated, according to the Worldwide Infrastructure Security Report. This report is produced annually by Arbor Networks, a company in Lexington, Mass., that provides tools for monitoring the performance of networks...

-- Source/continues: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/
technology/internet/10attacks.html

Obama Wins Presidential Election

Obama Wins Presidential Election

• CNN, NBC and Fox News have all projected that Senator Barack Obama will be the 44th president of the United States.
• Sen. McCain has called President-elect Obama to concede the election.
• President-elect Obama is expected to deliver his acceptance speech at a rally in Chicago's Grant Park shortly...

Vote today for the candidate of your choice...

We encourage you to vote today for the candidate of your choice...

 

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