July 2007

NIE: Terrorist Threats to the US Homeland

18 July 2007

National Intelligence Estimate
Terrorist Threats to the US Homeland

FROM: OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

The Estimate, Terrorist Threats to the US Homeland, followed the standard process for producing National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs), including a thorough review of sourcing, in-depth Community coordination, the use of alternative analysis, and review by outside experts. Starting in October 2006, the NIC organized a series of roundtables with IC experts to scope out terms of reference (TOR) for the Estimate. Drafters from throughout the Community contributed to the draft. In May, a draft was submitted to IC officers in advance of a series of coordination meetings that spanned several days. The National Clandestine Service, FBI, and other IC collection officers reviewed the text for the reliability and proper use of the sourcing. As part of the normal coordination process, analysts had the opportunity--and were encouraged--to register ?dissents? and provide alternative analysis. Reactions by the two outside experts who read the final product were highlighted in the text. The National Intelligence Board, composed of the heads of the 16 IC agencies and chaired by the ODNI, reviewed and approved the Estimate on 21 June. As with other NIEs, it is being distributed to senior Administration officials and Members of Congress. The report in .PDF format can be found at: http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070717_release.pdf

Update: At Least Eight Dead, 800 Injured in Japanese Quakes

July 17, 2007

UPDATE: Deadly quake rocks Japan, shuts reactors

A Powerful earthquake killed at least seven people and injured nearly 800 in western Japan yesterday, destroying nearly 300 homes, sparking mudslides and setting off a fire at a nuclear plant. In the hardest-hit areas, houses were reduced to rubble and a bridge was nearly cracked in two by the force of the mid-morning earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.8.

Five elderly people died in hospitals in the worst-hit city, Kashiwazaki, on the Sea of Japan, said officials at the Kashiwazaki Chuo and Kariwa-gun Sogo hospitals. An official at Chuo hospital said two of the dead were women in their 80s. NHK said they had been buried in separate buildings.

Television footage showed flames and smoke shooting out of a nuclear power plant in Kashiwazaki (picture - left), although there was no apparent risk of a radiation leak. Plant officials said the fire erupted in the area that supplies electricity to the plant and that the four reactors automatically shut down following the jolt.

Tokyo Electric Power Company shut down three generators at the nuclear power plant, the world's biggest. "The fire occurred at a transformer, which is not located close to the reactors," said a company official, Yasushi Hasegawa.

The Government set up a crisis centre after the earthquake, which was strong enough to shake skyscrapers in Tokyo, more than 200 kilometres from the epicentre off the coast of Niigata province. This story continues at: http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/deadly-quake-rocks-japan-shuts-reactors/2007/07/16/1184559704102.html

2nd Earthquake Rocks Japan; At Least Seven Dead, 800 Hurt

16 July 2007 - 10:30CDT

Japan Shaken By Second Quake in a Day, Atomic Reactor Damaged

JAPAN: Two earthquakes struck Japan today, damaging a nuclear reactor, toppling houses and causing a fire. Seven people were killed and more than 800 were injured by the first quake, NHK television reported on its Web site. Niigata prefecture appears to be the worst hit region of Japan.

A second magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck in the Sea of Japan 457 kilometers (284 miles) northwest of Tokyo at 11:17 p.m. local time, the U.S. Geological Survey reported on its Web site. The earlier quake, around 250 kilometers northwest of Tokyo, had triggered tsunami warnings and caused buildings to sway for several minutes around 10:15 a.m.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said that a nuclear reactor at its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant in Niigata was damaged by the first quake. Two cracks opened in its reactor No. 6, causing radioactive water to leak into the ocean, the company said on its Web site. The leaked water had no effect on the environment, according to the power company.

Learn more about this emerging story from Bloomberg News: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aeyBuZPjpSbM&refer=energy

Taliban Says Bigger Attacks Are Coming...

July 13, 2007 16:37 PM EDT

Exclusive: Terror Commander: New Attack Will Dwarf Failed Bomb Plot

As senior intelligence and law enforcement officials met again today in the White House Situation Room to deal with the "summer terror threat," a top terror commander said an attack was coming that would dwarf the failed bombings in London and Glasgow.

Taliban military commander Mansour Dadullah, in an interview broadcast on ABC News' "World News With Charles Gibson," said the London attacks were "not enough" and that bigger attacks were coming.

"You will, God willing, be witness to more attacks," he told a Pakistani journalist in an interview conducted just four days ago... Article continues at: http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/07/terror-commande.html

-- Source: ABCNews, Brian Ross and Maddy Sauer, July 13, 2007 16:37 PM EDT

Al-Qaeda Calls For "Holy War" Against Pakistan

Jul 11, 4:36 PM (ET)

Al-Qaeda Calls For "Holy War" Against Pakistan

 CAIRO, EGYPT: Al-Qaeda's No. 2 issued a new videotape on Wednesday calling for Pakistanis to join the jihad, or holy war, in revenge for the attack by Pakistan's army on a radical mosque. Ayman al-Zawahri's 4-minute, 24-second address was entitled "The Aggression against Lal Masjid" and entirely focused on the recent clashes between Islamic students and Pakistan's army at the mosque.

The video was released by al-Qaeda's multimedia branch, as-Sahab. Its authenticity could not immediately be confirmed, but two U.S.-based terrorism monitoring groups also reported it.

"Muslims of Pakistan: your salvation is only through Jihad," al-Zawahri said in the video, which was subtitled in English. "Musharraf and his hunting dogs have rubbed your honor in the dirt in the service of the Crusaders and the Jews," he said, referring to Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, who has come under strong internal criticism by fundamentalists for his handling of the clashes at the mosque.

Al-Qaeda's new video came as Pakistani commandos cleared the warren-like Red Mosque complex (Overhead Photo - Right) of its last die-hard defenders Wednesday and the army said it counted the bodies of 73 suspected militants. The commandos went in after unsuccessful attempts to get the mosque's militants to surrender to a weeklong siege mounted by the government following deadly street clashes in Islamabad with armed supporters of the mosque on July 3. Article continues at MyWay.com: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070711/D8QAJV5O0.html

Bush Administration Official Denies New Threat and Meeting

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:23am EDT

White House: No specific terror threat against US

WASHINGTON, DC: The Reuters news service is reporting that the Bush administration said on Wednesday there was no specific, credible terrorism threat against the United States and denied that an emergency meeting had been called. ABC News reported on Tuesday that the White House had called an urgent multi-agency session for Thursday to discuss a potential new al Qaeda threat on U.S. soil (See related stories and links elsewhere on this blog)

White House officials said it was a regularly scheduled meeting and not attended by the most senior national security officials. "There continues to be no credible, specific intelligence to suggest that there is an imminent threat to the homeland," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. "There is no emergency meeting," he said.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff had told the Chicago Tribune's editorial board his "gut feeling" was that the United States faced an increased risk of attack this summer. Fratto said he was not aware that Chertoff had made those feelings known to President George W. Bush... -- Source: http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-07-11T142318Z_01_N11392127_RTRIDST_0_USA-SECURITY-THREAT.XML

Al-Qaeda Attack Cell On the Way?

July 10, 2007 18:30 PM

New Intelligence Suggest Al-Qaeda Cell May Be On the Way

ABC News is reporting that "new intelligence suggests a small al Qaeda cell is on its way to the United States, or may already be here. The White House has reportedly convened an urgent multi-agency meeting for Thursday afternoon to deal with the new threat." The meeting will address ways to minimize or counter the threat, and steps to harden and protect government facilities.

"It suggests they have information that the cell or cells coming this direction want to attack a government facility," Brad Garrett, a former FBI agent and ABC News consultant, said.

ABC also reports that "Law enforcement officials say the recent failed attacks in London have provided important new clues about possible tactics. And officials say the London attackers use of the Internet left important clues that are being used to decode other e-mails that had initially been deemed unimportant but are now taking on new significance. A senior administration official said the level of concern of a new terror attack is now higher than it has been in some time". Read all about it: http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/07/al-qaeda-cell-i.html

Additional reference:

"Officials Worry of Summer Terror Attack," ABCNews, on the net at: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3363551

U.S. Govt Concern About Potential Al Qaeda Attack on US Homeland This Summer," Counter-Terrorism Blog, on the net at: http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/07/us_terror_july_10.php#trackbacks

Department of Homeland Security: http://www.dhs.gov

ERRI Counter-Terrorism Page: http://www.emergency.com/cntrterr.htm

Red Mosque Cleric Killed As Assault Ends Stand-Off

Siege Cleric Killed as Rebel Red Mosque falls

Last Updated: 16:37pm BST 10/07/2007

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN: The chief cleric of the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad has been killed after Pakistani special forces launched a bloody assault on his compound.

The body of Abdul Rashid Ghazi (left), who earlier had predicted that his "martyrdom was certain", was discovered in a basement this afternoon.

Around fifty of his Islamist followers have also been killed in the offensive to reclaim the mosque, which the Pakistani authorities say is now 90 per cent complete.

Pakistani commandos stormed the mosque compound before dawn today in an attempt to end an eight-day stand-off between militants and the government...

Story continues at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/10/wpak410.xml

Major Heatwave Moving East

08 July 2007

Heat Advisory

CHICAGO, IL: As hot and humid air moves from the Western United States into the Mid-West and East, ERRI emergency analysts have chosen this weekend to issue a heat advisory for multiple locations in the continental U.S.

Go here to download an official Heat Index Chart from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/heatindexchart.html

-- A (printable) temperature/humidity index from the same source in .PDF format can be downloaded/viewed from the ERRI servers at: http://www.emergency.com/2007/NCDC_Heat_Index_Charts.pdf

-- A brief review of the 1995 Chicago Heatwave, the ERRI warning, and general precautions concerning heat injuries can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/heatwave.htm

Downer sounds terrorism alert - Indonesia

July 09, 2007 12:00am

Downer Sounds Terrorism Alarm

  CANBERRA: Australinans have been told to stay away from Indonesia because of an imminent terrorist attack against Western interests in Bali or Jakarta. Security agencies detected a sudden rise in "chatter" between known terrorist groups late on Saturday night.

The chatter, picked up by Australian electronic intercepts, indicated an attack - linked to the recent arrest of Jemaah Islamiah leader Abu Dujana - was to take place.

"These attacks could take place at any time and could be imminent," the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade warned. "Australians should consider this information carefully when considering travel to Indonesia."

Australia's electronic spying agency, the Defence Signals Directorate, closely monitors phone calls and radio traffic inside Indonesia. Australian Federal Police agents in Indonesia have access to the intercepts and other material.

It is understood Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer was shocked when he saw the latest intelligence material and decided to go public, despite potential damage to relations with Indonesia. Indonesia always complains when Australians are warned to avoid their country, but after the two Bali bombings and attacks in Jakarta the Government is taking no chances...

Article continues at: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22039852-662,00.html

Al Qaeda's No. 2 says end of West imminent

04 July 2007

Al Qaeda's No. 2 says end of West imminent

(CNN) -- In a newly released videotaped message similar to a "fireside chat," al Qaeda's second-in-command issues advice and directives for the Muslim world, terrorism expert Laura Mansfield said Wednesday.

Al Qaeda's second-in-command Alman al-Zawahiri urges Muslims around the world to continue their fight against the West.

In the one-hour, 34-minute video, titled "The Advice of One Concerned," Ayman al-Zawahiri includes clips from other videos and news broadcasts, including one from al-Furqan, the video production arm of the Islamic State of Iraq, according to Mansfield, who obtained the video.

Al-Zawahiri says in the message that the defeat of the West is imminent, and that "the enemy" is trying to forestall the inevitable, Mansfield said.

"The good omens of the new dawn of victory have begun to loom on the horizon, with Allah's permission and will," he says.

"And the stage preceding victory is normally, in the history of nations, the stage in which there is most seen an increase in conspiracies, plots and inciting of discord in an attempt by the enemy, who has begun to see his defeat approach, to push back and delay the defeat as much as he can."

Al-Zawahiri does not reference the recent terrorism incidents in the United Kingdom in the video...

Article continues at: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/07/04/zawahiri.video/index.html