July 2006

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

29 Jul 2006

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East

By C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst

CHICAGO, IL: Iran and Ahmadinejad, just like any other "small-time bully," continue to believe that they are "winning" in the current multi-dimensional conflict in the Middle-East. We believe that Iran will continue its aggression in the region until it suffers a devastating defeat that awakens isolated and arrogant Iranian leaders to their very real vulnerability. Our most current analysis would suggest that they are currently winning, at least some extent. In this case, Tehran -- through its surrogate Hezbollah -- can win simply by "not losing."

Each day that Hezbollah continues their attacks on Israel, they gain credibility and political capitol in Tehran and Syria and visibility in the rest of the world. And...more importantly...they demonstrate that a committed and well armed "insurgent group," using unconventional weapons and tactics, can undertake attacks on a nation-state, without being immediately destroyed. This situation does not bode well for the future as a recognized terror organization show that they can engage in military acts that were previously limited only to countries.

How and why is this happening? Many experts, including those at ERRI, say that the rocket and terror attacks being carried out by Hezbollah is an example of 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare), or asymmetric warfare. Furthermore, and maybe more important in the overall equation, are the political and moral restraints being placed on Israel by other countries...many of whom either have a vested interest in selling weapons to the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah...or have political or religious conflicts with Tel Aviv.

While the number of different facets involved in this situation is staggering, the reality is that the Palestinians have essentially lost their battle in Intifada I and II. They were unable to defeat Israel or cause a change in their policies. Many of the former Palestinian leaders are either dead or in jail. Those left have fled to Damascus, Syria or are hiding in Syria, Lebanon, or Iran. The first tier of Palestinian "resistance to occupation" has now become almost irrelevant in the "larger game," though Islamo-facists continue to trumpet the "liberation of Palestinian lands," as their stated objective.

So, a second tier of combatants emerges...this time it is Hezbollah. Hezbollah, an organization that believes it successfully forced Israel out of Lebanon, rises as it is trained and armed for six years by a sponsors of a "holy war" to regain Islamic control of the Middle-East and ultimately to establish a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

The main causes of the conflict in the Middle-East have not yet been addressed:

? In our considered opinion, one of the major goals of this struggle is an attempt to establish the hegemony of Iran in the region. Please also remember that it is a publicly stated objective of Iran and Ahmadinejad to assure the complete destruction of Israel.

? Secondarily, there are also strong under-current of conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni branches of Islam as Tehran tries to assume control of the region and religion. This divergence is presently most evident in Iraq, where the Shi'ites and Sunnis have engaged in "tit-for-tat" attacks against each other since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

? Third, this is a geo-political battle that involves the overall distribution of land in the Middle-East. Jihadists believe that the entire region should be a bastion of Islam, without the taint of any other religion. Israelis and others believe that the Middle-East should be made up of "liberal democracies' that are tolerant of many religions. To the Islamists, politics are religion and religion is politics. The theocracy in Tehran should adequately demonstrate the Islamic model of an ideal "political-religious state." It is a model they want to export to other countries in the region.

? Finally, our assessment implies that the bewildering situation in the Middle-East is far more complex and difficult to explain than the limited space for this article allows. We will continue to monitor events in the Mid-East closely and bring you additional reports as the circumstances warrant...

Hezbollah's Arsenal; It's more lethal than everyone thought (?)

Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT, EmergencyNet News Service, Sunday, July 23, 2006, Vol. 12, No. 203

MID-EAST CONFLICT

Hezbollah's Arsenal; It's more lethal than everyone thought (?)

"MID-EAST: As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to escalate in Lebanon, one of the most alarming discoveries since the beginning of the fighting has been the variety, as well as the capabilities, of the weaponry employed by Hezbollah.

Under the apt headline "Arming of Hezbollah Reveals U.S. and Israeli Blind Spots," the New York Times recently provided a sense of just how powerful Hezbollah has become since the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. As the Times explained, "the power and sophistication of the missile and rocket arsenal that Hezbollah has used in recent days has caught the United States and Israel off guard . . . both countries are just now learning the extent to which the militant group has succeeded in getting weapons from Iran and Syria."

There is good reason to be concerned. Since the fighting began, Hezbollah has inflicted more damage on Israel than Saddam Hussein's Iraq was able to inflict on Kuwait during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hezbollah has deployed a range of extremely sophisticated weapons against Israel. The most notable has been the Iranian C-802 Noor (Tondar) variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile that was used against an Israeli gunship off the Lebanese coast. Four Israeli sailors were killed, and the gunship was put out of commission.

The Associated Press reports that "Iran is believed to have supplied Hezbollah with up to 120 Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets, with ranges of 22 miles and 45 miles respectively," noting that it was a Fajr-3 that is thought to have been responsible for an attack on Haifa that killed 8 civilians. More recently, Israeli military officials have sought to destroy sites in Lebanon believed to house long-range Zelzal missiles of Iranian manufacture that they suspect are capable of hitting Tel Aviv. And while early reports that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was responsible for the attack on the Israeli warship were inaccurate, Hezbollah is still assumed to possess several UAVs.

Nor is Iran Hezbollah's only source of weaponry. The New York Times quoted anonymous officials as saying that "some of the rockets in Hezbollah's arsenal--including a 220-millimeter rocket used in a deadly attack on a railway site in Haifa on Sunday--were built in Syria. . . . Officials have since confirmed that the warhead on the Syrian rocket was filled with ball bearings--a method of destruction used frequently in suicide bombings but not in warhead technology." An intelligence official was quoted in the article as saying, "We've never seen anything like this."

Given the apparent intelligence failure surrounding both Hezbollah's acquisition of this advanced weaponry and the willingness of Iran and Syria to supply it, the question whether the capabilities displayed to date by Hezbollah represent the full extent and scope of its arsenal may be worth raising.

Moreover, even the group's more mundane weapons have undergone numerous improvements. The Times reports that U.S. and Israeli intelligence were "surprised by the advances that Hezbollah had made in improving what had been crude rockets--for example, attaching cluster bombs as warheads, or filling an explosive shell with ball bearings that have devastating effect."

While some of these advances have come about through experience and murderous innovation, it is undeniable that Hezbollah would not be able to threaten Israel to the degree that it does without the full and active support of Syria and Iran. Clearly, contrary to the prognostications of many, state sponsorship still plays a major role in the amount of force that a terrorist group like Hezbollah can bring to bear against Israel. This is particularly true if, as Time magazine reported on its website in June, Hezbollah's long-range weapons are "under the direct command of officers of Iran's Revolutionary Guards," the elite branch of the Iranian military.

According to the New York Times's unnamed intelligence sources, Revolutionary Guards probably "trained Hezbollah fighters on how to successfully fire and guide the missiles."

Given the sophistication and variety of Hezbollah's weapons and the role of Syria and Iran in supplying them, any lasting solution to the situation in Lebanon must involve the full disarmament or destruction of Hezbollah's arsenal, with a firm understanding that it will not be reconstituted."

-- Source: Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard, 07/31/2006, Volume 011, Issue 43

======================================

Analyst note On Hezbollah Weapons

by C. L. Staten, ERRI analyst

CHICAGO, IL: It should be remembered that most of the weapons being used by Hezbollah in the current conflict were previously only available to a "nation-state," and were designed to be used in full-blown land conflict. Weapons that were originally designed to attack mass formations of (mounted and unmounted) troops are now being used to target innocent civilian populations

It would be our considered opinion that this is another step of the evolution of terrorism, asymmetric and/or 4th Generation warfare (4GW). What we are seeing is a transformation of "terrorist organizations" into something far more powerful and capable of inflicting massive damage and major loss of life. We believe that the ultimate effect of these latest events will eventually be shown to be "profound."

Furthermore, those who have been monitoring and reporting on weapons development in Iran/China/Russia and N. Korea are not surprised by the fact that the weapons mentioned above actually exist. In fact, ERRI and other experts are well aware of the capabilities of these weapons. The only matter of conjecture was whether or not these missiles/rockets had been transferred to Hezbollah. Recent events in the Middle-East would seem to remove any doubt about that, and confirm that more of these "stand-off" type weapons are in the hands of terror organizations than ever before.

[ERRI analysts first warned of this trend in January of 2004, when we said: "Increasingly, militants (except suicide/ homicide bombers) are reluctant to directly engage U.S. and Coalition military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, they are using indirect fire weapons such as unguided rockets, mortars, and IEDs. They believe that this allows them a better opportunity to escape the wrath of return fire by coalition forces." -- Source: Powerpoint, "World-Wide Terrorism; Predictive Analysis: January, 2004," By C. L. Staten, CEO and Sr. Analyst, Emergency Response & Research Institute.

[Editor's note: Please be advised that there appear to be some "technical errors" in the narrative about some of the weapons described above. We did not feel it appropriate to edit/correct the author's text in this review of it.]

Emergency Response & Research Institute
EmergencyNet News Service
6348 N. Milwaukee Ave. #312
Chicago, IL 60646
E-mail: webmaster@mail.emergency.com
Main Webpage: http://www.emergency.com

All currently on assignment...?

MIDDLE-EAST COVERAGE?

All EmergencyNet News correspondents and ERRI analysts are currently on assignment. 

Please subscribe to EmergencyNet News to receive the most current update...

Subscribe to EmergencyNet News NOW! Visit Google Checkout by choosing the service you desire and then clicking on Blue "Buy Now" Below

BREAKING: Series of Blasts Reported on Indian Commuter Trains

7/11 Blasts

EmergencyNet News *FLASH* Report
10:15CDT - 11 Jul 06

Series of Blasts Reported on Indian Commuter Trains

From the ERRI/EmergencyNet News Global Watchdesk
By C. L. Staten, Senior National Security Analyst

BOMBAY(MUMBAI), INDIA: In an incident that appears to be a repeat of the Madrid train bombings, seven explosions rocked Bombay's (Mumbai's) commuter rail network during Tuesday evening rush hour, ripping apart multiple trains. The first blast went off at about 18:30 local time (13:00GMT), during the peak of the evening rush hour in the suburbs on the busy Western Railway.

Officials also said the government is calling it a "terrorist incident." A senior Bombay police official, P.S. Pasricha, said the explosions were part of a "well-coordinated attack." The country's home minister told Indian television that authorities had information that an attack was coming but did not know the time or place.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombings, but the blasts came in quick succession a common tactic employed by Al-Qaeda and other "jihadist" militants that have repeatedly targeted Indian and other cities.

Witnesses reported seeing body parts strewn about stations, and Indian television news channels broadcast footage of bystanders carrying victims to waiting ambulances. The exact number of the stricken is not presently known.

Bombay's police chief said as many as 100 people are feared dead. Sadly, some rescue authorities said that the toll of dead and injured may yet rise as rescue operations continue. "We are busy in the rescue operation. Our first priority is to rescue the injured people," Bombay Police Chief A.N. Roy said.

EmergencyNet News is monitoring the rescue operations and investigation in Mumbai and we will bring you additional official details as they become available. Wire service, military, and emergency service agencies contributed to this report.

Additional reference, Mumbai Explosions

* 03/1/93-0600CST -- INDIAN BOMBINGS CAUSED BY "FOREIGN EXTREMISTS", ACCORDING TO POLICE, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/bombay.htm

* Crisis in Kashmir: 2001-2002, Series of EmergencyNet News "Real-Time" Reports Concerning Escalating Tensions Between Pakistan and India -- 13 Dec 2001 to 19 Jan 2002, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2001/crisis_in_kashmir2001.htm

Series of "Real-Time" Reports Concerning Multiple Train Bombings Madrid, Spain, 11 March 2004, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2004/Madrid_bmb031104.htm

© Emergency Response & Research Institute
EmergencyNet News Service
6348 N. Milwaukee Ave. #312
Chicago, IL 60646
E-mail: webmaster@mail.emergency.com
Main Webpage: http://www.emergency.com