BREAKING NEWS

Edgartown, MA (EmergencyNet News) -- President Bill Clinton just announced a "military attack" on the camp of Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan. The President also announced a strike on a "chemical munitions" facility that may have been used by the terrorists. A target in Sudan was also mentioned in the one-minute announcement.

President Clinton said that the attacks were justified by "compelling evidence" that terrorists were expected to strike U.S. interests in the near future.

President Clinton announced that he is enroute from Martha's Vineyard to Washington in order to receive additional military briefings from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the strikes against terrorist forces.

LEAD FOCUS

From the ERRI Watch Center

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - United States military forces, acting on what intelligence officials called "compelling evidence" that more attacks on U.S. interests were imminent, bombed a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan and a pharmaceutical plant in Sudan that was suspected of making chemical weapons. The Zhawar Kili camp in Afghanistan, described by one senior intelligence official as a "terrorist university," was known to be a training ground for the followers of Saudi multi-millionaire Osama bin Laden, an anti-American terrorist leader. The Zhawar Kili training camp is in a remote region of Afghanistan, about 90 miles south of the capital of Kabul.

Intelligence officials said that they have sufficient evidence to believe that bin Laden was behind the bombing attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam that killed more than 260 people, including a dozen Americans.

The Shifa pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, Sudan was heavily guarded. Intelligence officials said there was no record of it ever having produced any pharmaceuticals. It was selected as a target because bin Laden has dealt with plant officials in the past and was known to be seeking to purchase chemical weapons for use in further attacks on U.S. citizens and facilities.

The raids took place at about 1330 EDT, about 1930 hours local time in Sudan and 2200 hours local time in Afghanistan. U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said the attacks were timed to reduce the number of innocent civilians, who might have been killed or wounded in the attacks. Cohen said he could not release many details about the attacks. He would not say, for example, whether the raids were air strikes, ground attacks, or a combination of both. He said secrecy was necessary because U.S. forces may launch additional attacks against bin Laden's terrorist network in the near future.

Missiles launched against Sudan came from U.S. Navy vessels in the Red Sea, and the missiles launched on Afghanistan came from ships in the Persian Gulf. POTUS ordered the strikes based on the unanimous recommendation of his national security team. Some reports said that up to 70 Tomahawk missiles were fired at the targets.

At least 21 people were killed and more than 30 wounded at the terrorist bases in eastern Afghanistan. The Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) said the Taliban Islamic movement had taken out 21 bodies from the site near Khost, and the death toll could rise. The identity or nationality of those killed in the attack was not known and there was no information where the wounded were taken for treatment.

Cohen said that the attacks took place on Thursday because there was evidence that terrorists were moving forward with plans to attack other American embassies and citizens. The attack on the Afghanistan camp was also coordinated to coincide with a large gathering of suspected terrorists there.

One intelligence official said, "We have reason to believe that the camp was going to have a larger number of people there than usual."

According to the Secretary of Defense, the camp can train as many as 600 terrorists at once. Cohen said the purpose of the raids was to "disrupt, and hopefully destroy" bin Laden's terrorist infrastructure, thus slowing his ability to attack American targets.

Ackowledged terrorism expert and ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten said, "We believe that these strikes were correctly made as a premptive measure and in an attempt to disrupt bin Laden's infrastructure and command and control facilities in Afghanistan ... additionally our prolonged studies of bin Laden and his terrorist network would suggest that these strikes were supported by the evidence that he had organized, supported and encouraged terrorist attacks on several occasions."

Cohen said bin Laden was not himself a target of the raids. He said, "We were targeting his infrastructure, not him." U.S. law prohibits assassinations of foreign leaders.

Bin Laden was unharmed, according to a spokesman for Afghanistan's Taliban rulers.

A United Nations spokesperson said several relief workers in Afghanistan, which is mostly controlled by Taliban militia, left as a result of the U.S. warning.

Pakistan went on high alert after the U.S. strike in neighboring Afghanistan. Although it isn't yet clear whether Pakistan cooperated with the attack, there had been a number of local media reports that the United States asked the government for permission to stage its attack from Pakistani soil.

Experts said that any Tomahawk missiles fired at Afghanistan had to fly over Pakistani territory.

Officials increased security at the U.S. Embassy and other Western embassies, anticipating possible retaliation. Local newspapers had predicted there would be a U.S. assault on the stronghold of terrorist financier Osama bin Laden within 24 hours. The Pakistani military was placed on high alert.

On Friday, an Italian military officer and a Frenchman, both working for the United Nations, were shot in Afghanistan. The Italian Defense Ministry said the officer, 42-year-old Carmine Calo, was hit by a bullet in the chest while in a military vehicle. He was undergoing surgery. No further details were immediately available. Calo is a lieutenant colonel in the Italian army. He was serving on the U.N. Special Mission to Afghanistan (UNSMA), which is based in Islamabad. A Frenchman working for the United Nations in Afghanistan was also shot and wounded while in the military vehicle with Calo.

UNITED STATES

From the ERRI Watch Center

CHICAGO (EmergencyNet News) - Alarm bells are ringing this morning throughout the Emergency Response & Research Institute's (ERRI) operations watch center. Incident reports continue to pour in regarding Thursday's strike on terrorist bases in Afghanistan and Sudan. Our preliminary analysis of these reports would suggest that American emergency response and military agencies should be placed at a heightened state of alert for possible terrorist retaliation.

ERRI's threat assessment computer records the incidence of on-going terrorist events, reported threats, previous situational analysis, and the current level of anti-U.S. rhetoric and then, using a series of "expert algorthyms", issues a statistics-based threat assessment. Output is then examined by ERRI human analysts and given additional consideration in regard to overall threat planning and warning efforts. It is through this process that the following information was developed.

This following analysis was issued on 08/19/98 by ERRI:

"Recent radical statements by Mid-east extremist groups, that they will again attack American targets, should be given great credence at this time. ERRI's most recent assessment of international events and threats would suggest that associates/allies of Osama Bin-Laden can probably be expected to attempt to strike American government buildings, military installations, high-visibility corporate facilities, or large gatherings of citizens, in any area where they may find vulnerability. We are presently concerned about attacks in CONUS (Continental United States) or in some unlikely place like Central or South America, where "softer targets" might be found. It is unlikely that they will try to attack an American facility that is obviously in a high-state of readiness," Staten said.

"Previous statements by Bin Laden would suggest that he believes that he can accomplish his primary objective of driving American military and diplomatic personnel from the Mid-east through the use of bloody terror tactics. In previous statements, Bin Laden has held out a October 3, 1993, battle in Mogadishu, Somalia, that killed several U.S. soldiers, and the subsequent American withdrawal of that region, as an example of what can be accomplished if he and his forces can cause the United States to suffer a sufficient number of casualties. Our analysis would suggest that Bin Laden believes that political circumstances in Washington may distract or even weaken American resolve to take decisive action to halt his actions and that he can intimidate America into making a Mid-East withdrawal. In other words, Bin Laden sees America as particularly vulnerable at this time," the author of 'The Emergency Response Guide to Terrorism' said."

Assessment Following Missile Attacks:

In light of Thursday's raids, we believe that the likelihood of retaliatory attacks sponsored by the Osama Bin Laden organization, the Egyptian Jihad, or other related and sympathetic extremist groups may have, in fact, escalated. Our continuing assessment of threat levels since the Cruise missile strikes would seem to indicate that insurgent groups may target highly visible U.S. government organizations or corporate buildings that are closely associated with the United States. It is also probable that they will target those that do not have sophisticated security systems or personnel in an advanced state of preparedness. Although "suicide attacks" are possible on even hardened targets, it is more likely in the near term that extremists will target "soft targets" that do not require extensive planning or organization and can be struck rapidly.

Conclusions:

By Jim Denney, ERRI Senior Analyst

LOS ANGELES (EmergencyNet News) - Osama bin Laden is not Muramar Kadafi. The tactics that worked on Kadafi may not work on bin Laden. The circumstances are different, combat does not frighten him and we can expect him to react offensively within the next few days:

* Bin Laden is a proven soldier.

* He is a combat veteran who expects to be attacked and anticipates retaliation for his actions.

* He is not just a terrorist; he is also an experienced tactical warfighter.

* He has at least 9 years of experience in guerilla warfare.

* He is in an offensive posture, not defensive

* As a combat veteran and leader of a fighting force, he has lost soldiers, friends and associates in action and accepts those combat losses as any commander would.

* He has a global following that includes personnel, family and supporters in the United States.

* He is well funded and has access to relatively sophisticated technology, including digital satellite communication and encrypted computer email capability

* In addition to governmental soft targets, he has 4 million Americans travelling, living and working on foreign soil to choose from.

*****

NEW YORK CITY (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. military strikes at "terrorist-related" bases in Afghanistan and Sudan prompted a tightening of security on Thursday in New York City. Officials said potentially sensitive places such as embassies, government buildings and religious institutions were being more carefully guarded by police even though there had been no specific threat in New York.

Mayor Rudolph Giuliani told a news conference: "There is no intelligence of a specific target. This is a precautionary measure that is taken and unfortunately we have had to take these precautions whenever bombings or attacks occur in other parts of the world."

New York City Police Commissioner Howard Safir told the same news conference: "We are talking about high priority locations that might be targets -- embassies, consuls, government buildings, religious institutions. We're talking about heightened security in the city."

Safir called the procedure "Condition Bravo" and said the NYPD would coordinate operations with federal authorities and the United Nations.

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FBI ISSUES TERRORISM ADVISORY

From the ERRI Watch Center

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The Federal Bureau of Investigation is reportedly pulling some of its investigators out of East Africa and will be sending a SWAT team there as a security measure after the U.S. military strike against terrorist targets in Sudan and Afghanistan. FBI Director Louis Freeh abruptly cut short his visit to a bombing site in Nairobi on Friday to return to Washington.

In the United States, the FBI warned local law enforcement agencies and the U.S. Justice Department warned its 117,000 employees to take precautions against possible terrorist retaliation for the U.S. strikes. But Justice and FBI officials emphasized there were no specific threats to domestic targets.

A new group of 115 FBI agents and specialists is scheduled to leave for Kenya and Tanzania on Friday to assist in the investigation of the 7 August bombings of the embassies there. But after POTUS announced the military strikes Thursday, that airlift was canceled. In addition, some of the 250 FBI agents and lab examiners already in East Africa are returning this weekend on normal rotation and will not immediately be replaced.

Instead, the FBI is dispatching one of its Special Weapons and Tactics squads to enhance the security of its personnel in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam.

National security adviser Sandy Berger said, "The FBI has issued an alert to all local law enforcement officials about the heightened degree of concern that they ought to manifest in their work."

LEAD FOCUS

For more than a year, analysts at the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute have been developing a profile of terrorist financier Osama bin Laden. What is it in his personality that drives his hatred for the United States? Some experts say that it is fear for his life and a strong desire to change the government in his native country that stokes bin Laden's anger against the West.

Many people forget that bin Laden was trained as a guerrilla leader by Western experts and he fought against the Soviet occupation forces in Afghanistan for many years before turning against his trainers. In the 1980s, bin Laden was known as a Saudi benefactor who took care of widows and orphans in Afghanistan.

Bin Laden spent millions supporting the Afghan guerrillas, financing thousands of volunteer foreign soldiers who came to Afghanistan from throughout the Islamic world, and creating a network of guest houses and charities to support them and their families. This is how he developed the network of terrorists that he has today.

But with the end of the Soviet occupation in 1989, his struggle became the struggle against the United States, the dominant power in the world and in the Middle East. In 1989, bin Laden returned to his native Saudi Arabia and began to support militant Islamic groups opposing moderate Islamic governments.

His fanatical rage against the United States took root during the 1991 Gulf war, with the continuing presence of U.S. troops on the sands of his native Saudi Arabia. One expert said that he regarded that as an occupation of the Islamic holy places by the United States and bin Laden swore vengeance against what he called "the crusaders" of Christianity trespassing on Mecca and Medina.

Kenneth Katzman, a former CIA analyst who is the Congressional Research service's resident expert on Middle Eastern terrorism, said, "What this man thinks about every day is: How do I get the U.S. out of my home in Saudi Arabia, and how do I get those corrupt pharaohs out of power?"

One Afghan expert said, "He sees himself as a visionary who wants to change the Saudi kingdom into his own version of Islamic democracy."

Bin Laden has, however, admitted that he admires several virtues of the Western social system. He said once in an interview: "They have democracy. They have freedom" but what annoys him is "the Western dual standards."

He has said: "They want democracy for their own people but for us they prescribe dictatorships and monarchies," referring to the ruling royal family in his native Saudi Arabia.

It is known that bin Laden is obsessed with his desire to change the Saudi government and describes it as "corrupt and inefficient" which he says "works against its own people." He said he turned against the United States when the Americans sent their troops to the kingdom.

Western intelligence agencies blame him for carrying out a bomb attack against U.S. military barracks in Saudi Arabia in 1996 that killed 19 U.S. servicemen.

Bin Laden has said: "It is no use talking to the Americans now ... their troops are occupying our holy lands (in Saudi Arabia), how can we talk to them."

Earlier this year, his group faxed letters to U.S. embassies in London and Islamabad, threatening to "strike U.S. targets anywhere in the world." U.S. officials responded by increasing security around U.S. installations in what they considered to be high risk areas like the Middle East and Pakistan. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were not fortified because Washington did not see East Africa as a high risk zone.

One Western diplomat said, "This gave bin Laden's group the opportunity to go for those targets."

According to supporters of bin Laden, it's not just ideology that motivates him. They say that recently there have been several attempts on his life by agents of the Arab governments. He survived the attempts but a Taliban official says he has "become very edgy and nervous."

Afghanistan's Taliban militia has given refuge to bin Laden in the southwestern part of the country where he has been living for more than a year now. A Taliban official explained, "He feels that Western intelligence agencies are providing information to the Arab governments that want to eliminate him ... this is why he has become more anti-Western now."

Late on Friday, a Pakistani newspaper reported that bin Laden had vowed retaliation against the United States after missile strikes on his operations in Afghanistan. The English-language daily "The News" reported that bin Laden, in a message read by his Egyptian ally Ayman al-Zawahiri, said: "The war has just started and the Americans should wait for an answer."

Zawahiri speaking by a satellite telephone told the newspaper that the terrorist financier also said: "Tell the Americans that we aren't afraid of bombardment, threats and acts of aggression. We suffered and survived Soviet bombings for ten years in Afghanistan and we are ready for more sacrifices."

The Newspaper quoted Zawahiri, head of an Islamic Jihad (holy war) organization and wanted by Egyptian government, bin Laden had escaped American attacks and was safe in Afghanistan. Zawahiri said, "The whole Muslim Ummah (community) must change its attitude and fight the challenges posed by America and its agents. We should strengthen Laden's hands in his struggle."

Also on Friday Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, also reported a statement from bin Laden's spokesman saying: "The battle has not started yet. The response will be with action and not words."

His only mistake was that once he openly declared war on the United States and showed that he had the means to carry out his war -- he'll now live the rest of his sorry life with a big bulls-eye on his back.

*****

TERRORISM/POLITICAL VIOLENCE

UNITED STATES

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Hugh Shelton says that terrorism is a new kind of warfare. After preparing for decades for Soviet tanks to roll across Western Europe, is this new war something that the U.S. military can win? Can it stop terrorists from hitting Americans at home?

Government officials answer those questions by saying U.S. forces are prepared to use any means at their disposal in this intensified war against terrorism, even if it means that the terrorists use chemical, biological or other kinds of weapons.

In reality, such questions cannot be answered with certainty. But what does seem likely is that the war on terror will take a further toll on Americans somewhere.

ERRI risk analyst Steve Macko, a long-time advocate of being tough as possible on international terrorists, said on Friday, "It's not so much whether or not the U.S. has the means to fight the war on terrorism ... it's more of a matter of whether or not the policymakers have the political will. This is a nasty, dirty business we're talking about. It's not for the faint-hearted."

Former CIA director Robert Gates said, "We should expect future attacks against Americans, whether at home or abroad. This is a protracted conflict."

The United States and its interests abroad have been a target of terrorists for years. What has changed now is the nature of the terrorist threat. Instead of relying on individual states such as Iran or Syria for financial support, terrorists now use "transnational" networks not tied to any specific nation, either for resources or for ideology.

Vincent Cannistraro, a former National Security Council intelligence director and terrorism expert, described the threat as "a privatization of international terrorism."

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT NEWS

RIYADH (EmergencyNet News) - Diplomats said on Saturday that the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia has tightened its already strict security measures and warned Americans to beware possible attacks after U.S. military strikes in Sudan and Afghanistan. A diplomat who works near the U.S. mission said, "All the streets leading to the U.S. embassy are now closed to the public and only diplomatic cars can pass. Security has become visibly tighter."

About 35,000 Americans including about 4,500 military personnel, are based in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. embassy in Riyadh issued a new security message on its telephone hotline urging Americans to be careful and keep a low profile.

The message said: "The Department of State urges U.S. citizens travelling or residing abroad to review their security practices, to remain alert to the changing situation and to exercise much greater caution than usual." The message was part of a worldwide caution from the State Department "in light of recent U.S. military strikes against terrorist targets in Afghanistan and Sudan, and possible threats to Americans and American interests overseas. Large crowds and other situations in which anti- American sentiments may be expressed should be avoided. U.S. diplomatic posts worldwide are taking appropriate security precautions."

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SECURITY NEWS

UNITED STATES

LOS ANGELES (EmergencyNet News) - Multinational corporations are looking for ways to protect overseas employees and property that could become targets of retaliation for the U.S. missile strikes on suspected terrorist sites in Sudan and Afghanistan. Ian Lesser, a Rand Corp. senior analyst specializing in terrorism, said as government installations such as embassies and military bases increase security, U.S. companies operating in other countries could become targets for terrorism.

Lesser said, "Terrorists will always look for relatively soft targets and to the extent that security at official U.S. installations gets better, businesses should take appropriate measures."

The recent terrorist bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania have prompted companies to review security measures and, in some cases, halt work. Unocal Corp. suspended work on a proposed natural gas pipeline that would cross Afghanistan to connect gas fields in Turkmenistan with markets in Pakistan and India.

Clark Staten, chief executive officer of the Emergency Response and Research Institute, said that after the U.S. attacks in Afghanistan and Sudan, the ERRI operations center was swamped with calls from people wanting information about the threat of terrorist attack.

Companies like ERRI can help clients anticipate situations in which a company might become vulnerable to attack. Staten explained that ERRI attempts to do for companies what the CIA and FBI does for the government -- anticipate and point out the most important security incidents over next 24 hours.

*****

From the ERRI Watch Center

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - People all over the nation's capital on Friday saw increased security as Washington tried to reduce any opportunities to terrorists who may be thinking of retaliating for Thursday's U.S. military strikes against terrorist-related targets in Afghanistan and Sudan. The additional precautions included extra police, closer inspections of identification and packages and new barriers at some building entrances.

An FBI spokesman reiterated on Friday, "We're not aware of any overt threats" against Americans at home or against national symbols, such as government buildings or the popular Washington monuments. The FBI nonetheless issued a general security warning after POTUS announced the cruise missile attacks Thursday afternoon.

A statement issued by the FBI on Friday said: "It is reasonable and prudent to conclude that yesterday's action by the United States elevates the risk to U.S. interests worldwide."

At the Pentagon, spokesman Glenn Flood said, "We have beefed up and we want to be seen as having a heavy presence. This will continue until further notice."

The Pentagon and the military as a whole moved from "Threatcon Normal" to "Threatcon Alpha," which is defined as "a general threat of possible terrorist activity against installations, building locations and/or personnel, the nature and extent of which are unpredictable." Pentagon security guards searched workers and others with building passes who would ordinarily be passed through. Black-clad SWAT teams roamed the grounds with automatic weapons.

At the State Department, cars and trucks were parked across the entrances to two driveways. The horseshoe-shaped drives were long ago closed to ordinary traffic as a precaution against car bombers, but are usually blocked only by temporary metal barriers. The uniformed division of the U.S. Secret Service added guards around various diplomatic missions.

The agency that manages federal buildings nationwide, the General Services Administration, sent out an internal security advisory Thursday suggesting that guards increase their patrols and more carefully check bags of anyone going inside.

The U.S. Energy Department added more guards at its building doors and conducted closer checks of employee and visitor identification and belongings. The Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department similarly increased security.

LEAD FOCUS

The United States launched a major new push in the war on terrorism this week, but officials and analysts caution that satellites and missiles cannot build a firewall against religious fanatics with explosives. Pentagon leaders have been making it clear that Thursday's strikes by U.S. Navy Tomahawk missiles against "terrorist-related" targets in Afghanistan and Sudan were just an opening volley in a high-tech strategy to find and engage terrorists on their home turf.

Friday's message by White House National Security Adviser Sandy Berger was: "We are going to be on offense as well as defense."

But many experts say that the U.S. war on terrorism is an uneven one, a classic case of two sides playing by different rules. It is folly, they say, to picture a terrorist as a confused young zealot with a death wish.

John Steinbruner of the Brookings Institution in Washington said, "It would be a major mistake to underestimate these people. They are not primitives. Many have college degrees and have watched Tom Clancy movies."

Steinbruner and others experts say that would-be terrorists these days -- in hundreds of small "cells" around the world -- are closely linked, well- financed and well-armed, often with ties to drug cartels and in possession of good fake travel documents.

Clark Staten, Executive Director of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute (ERRI), said, "We live in a dramatically changing time ... never before in the history of the United States of America have we faced a declaration of war from an individual. And, never before have we in America taken such a threat seriously. Although any number of the "psychologically challenged" have previously made threats against the U.S., few have ever had the wherewithal to actually undertake any of their threats. Today, that may not be true. We are entering an age of fanatical "shadow-warriors" ... guerilla-fighters with religious, political, ideological, racial, or ethnic motivations and the very real capability to cause disproportionate harm to the United States and her allies. It is the dawning of the age of non-state actors, transnational insurgency, and assymetric warfare."

Military analyst Mike Palaschak said the strike by some 50 missiles on a suspected terrorist training base in Afghanistan bought time in thwarting alleged plans for new anti-U.S. attacks by supporters of exiled Saudi millionaire Osama Bin Laden, now living in Afghanistan.

Palaschak, who is also with Brookings, said, "But it is pretty easy and safe to hit a large, fixed target like that base with missiles when you have intelligence on it. That is a lot different from getting constant, good intelligence on individuals in countries that may be protecting them. These people play by murderous rules and we are constrained by democracy and diplomacy."

While satellites and computers of the top secret National Security Agency (NSA) are good at picking up and sorting out millions of telephone conversations on Earth, the NSA concedes that terrorists have learned to be more careful on the telephone in recent years.

When Ronald Reagan became POTUS in 1981, the 444-day Iran hostage crisis came to an end. In his inaugural address, he vowed "swift and effective" retaliation against terrorists. Unfortunately, it was a promise on which he was able to deliver very little. Reagan, along with his successors, discovered there always seemed to be reasons to refrain from retaliation: the intelligence was too inconclusive or the prospective loss of civilian life too great.

In an editorial in Saturday's New York Times, former CIA director John Deutch said: "We must insist on superior intelligence that will warn of potential terrorist actions. We must insist on tough and prompt responses to such acts and on developing an effective capability to manage the consequences of these acts when they occur."

This week, the administrations top advisers said intelligence windfalls not only pinpointed the perpetrators of the bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, they also exposed plans for new terrorist attacks on U.S. interests. This is what was able to make POTUS feel reasonably comfortable about launching punishing military strikes against terrorists.

According to John Deutch, "Acts of international terrorism are essentially attacks on our national security, and a decision to retaliate does not require the same standard of proof as a conviction in an American court of law arising from domestic terrorism like the Oklahoma City bombing. What is required is that the President and his senior foreign policy team have the opportunity to weigh information presented coolly and objectively by the intelligence community."

In refraining from the use of force against terrorists, especially in Lebanon, Reagan disappointed some close advisers. On several occasions, he was tempted to retaliate but felt too many innocent lives would have been lost. One exception occurred in April 1986 when Reagan ordered the bombing of Tripoli and Banghazi after he concluded that Libyans were responsible for the murder of two U.S. soldiers at a Berlin disco.

In general, however, Reagan and his successors found talk about a "swift and effective" response was easier than actually carrying it out.

National Security adviser Sandy Berger expressed frustration over the dead ends in the Khobar Towers investigation. He said, "We have a number of different theories ... information that leads in a number of different directions."

But Berger and other officials described no similar frustration following the East Africa bombings on 7 August. Early on, intelligence concluded that Saudi-born millionaire Osama bin Laden and his allies were responsible. They also concluded that plans for additional attacks on Americans were imminent. Berger said information gathered from various sources all pointed to bin Laden.

The National Security Advisor said, "Rarely do numerous sources converge so uniformly and persuasively as they did in the course of our investigation into the responsibility for these terrorist acts. Based on this information, we have high confidence that these bombings were planned, financed, and carried out by the organization bin Laden leads."

***** 

TERRORISM/POLITICAL VIOLENCE

UNITED STATES

EDGARTOWN, MASSACHUSETTS (EmergencyNet News) - POTUS on Saturday banned all financial transactions between U.S. companies and Saudi exile Osama bin Laden in what U.S. officials called a limited first step toward disrupting the wealthy militant's far-flung financial empire. The order blocking any business dealings between Americans and bin Laden came two days after the United States launched missile attacks on targets in Afghanistan and Sudan that were believed part of a "terrorist" network organized by bin Laden.

Two senior U.S. officials admitted that the President's executive order was unlikely to have an impact on much of bin Laden's fortune, estimated at US$300 million, because they did not believe a large number of his assets were subject to U.S. jurisdiction. But they said the U.S. would consult with its allies and try to get more countries to take similar action against a financial empire they say bin Laden is using to fund a vast terrorist network.

One of the unnamed officials said, "It is a first step. No one anticipates that this is going to have an enormously disruptive effect immediately. But its benefits to us in hindering his operation and the degree to which this hems him in over time, especially if we get the cooperation of allies, could well be significant."

Bin Laden is said to have his money invested in a wide array of interests, including agriculture companies, banking and investment firms, construction companies, and what one official called export-import firms that "hide many sins." The official said the objective is to build a "financial trail" identifying where bin Laden's money is and work to contain it.

The action by POTUS effectively added bin Laden's name and several related organizations to an executive order prohibiting U.S. transactions with "terrorists who threaten to disrupt the Middle East peace process." In addition to bin Laden, these groups were named: the Islamic Army, the Islamic Salvation Foundation, the Islamic Army for the Liberation of the Holy Places, the World Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders, and the Group for the Preservation of the Holy Sites. It named two individuals as well, whom officials said were lieutenants to bin Laden. They were Abu Hafs al-Masri and Rifa'i Ahmad Taha Musa.

U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen, in an opinion article published in the Washington Post on Sunday, said the strikes should not be seen simply as a response to the 7 August bombings at U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, but as "the long-term fundamental way in which the United States intends to combat the forces of terror."

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT NEWS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

AMMAN (EmergencyNet News) - The fortress-like U.S. Embassy in the Jordanian capital, Amman, had its second bomb scare in less than a week on Saturday. Embassy sources said the mission received a telephone call warning that a bomb was planted in the premises of its large compound in the affluent district of Deir Ghubar in western Amman.

The embassy is closed to the public for the weekend, but sources said the compound was evacuated until authorities confirmed the threat was false. The embassy compound in Jordan is spread over 12 acres and surrounded by a high, thick stone fence. It was opened in 1994 at cost of $50 million. It has steel doors and bulletproof windows. Visitors are always escorted by a member of the permanent staff, which includes 125 full-time Americans and 230 Jordanians.

Besides the embassy, the compound also houses the offices of the U.S. International Agency for Development, the ambassador's residence, the U.S. Marine house, the U.S. Information Service and its cultural center, the consulate and the American Club, which includes a large outdoor swimming pool.

Also on Saturday, news reports said that security at the U.S. Embassy in Colombo, Sri Lanka, has been noticeably increased.

***

KUWAIT CITY (EmergencyNet News) - A U.S. diplomat said on Sunday that the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait has temporarily closed its consular section as part of heightened security measures following U.S. military strikes in Sudan and Afghanistan. An embassy spokesman said, "The U.S. embassy is continuing normal operations with some adjustments in the consular section in view of the current security situation."

In June, the U.S. embassy in Kuwait urged Americans to maintain a high level of alertness after terrorist financier Osama bin Laden threatened to target U.S. citizens in the Gulf. There are some 8,000 U.S. civilians and some 3,500 military personnel in Kuwait.

*****

SECURITY NEWS

UNITED STATES

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - The U.S. Park Police on Saturday installed concrete barriers around the Washington Monument and were searching the bags of tourists because of heightened security following U.S. missile attacks on terrorist sites in Afghanistan and Sudan. The barriers were put up because the Washington Monument is among the capital's few major public memorials that a vehicle can park near.

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ASIA AND PACIFIC

ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES (EmergencyNet News) - Philippine troops increased security around potential extremist targets on Sunday after reports linked local Moslem guerrillas to Islamic militants blamed by the United States for bombing its embassies in East Africa. The military and police beefed up patrols in commercial centers and around churches in Zamboanga and on nearby Basilan island as part of the alert.

Zamboanga and Basilan, in the southern Mindanao region, have been targets of bomb attacks in recent years blamed by the military on the local Moslem fundamentalist Abu Sayyaf group. Several people were killed in the attacks. Manila newspapers on Sunday cited intelligence sources as linking local Moslem militants to anti-American Saudi exile Osama bin Laden and his followers, whom the United States have accused of playing a key role in the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Tanzania earlier this month.

The Philippine Daily Inquirer, quoting an unnamed intelligence source, said bin Laden was a "frequent visitor to the Philippines, particularly in Mindanao," and had local business interests. The newspaper quoted its source as saying bin Laden had financed the training in Pakistan of about 200 Filipino Moslems in the late 1970s, some of whom may have fought against Soviet forces when they occupied Afghanistan.

The source told the newspaper: "Some of these Filipino Moslems have returned to Mindanao and are being watched by our military intelligence people."

The Manila Times newspaper said local intelligence sources suspected bin Laden's group "may be providing logistical and training assistance" to the Abu Sayyaf. An army spokesman said the military had intelligence reports that some members of the Abu Sayyaf group had undergone foreign training but he would not elaborate.

The Abu Sayyaf is fighting for an Islamic state in the Philippines' southern islands. Unlike the mainstream Moro National Liberation Front which also fought for separatism but entered into a peace deal with Manila in 1996, the Abu Sayyaf has shunned talks with the government.

Manila police, acting on requests from the United States, have increased patrols in the area around the embassy since the Africa bombings.

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SECURITY NEWS FOR TRAVELERS

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

KHARTOUM, SUDAN (EmergencyNet News) - The British embassy in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum was on alert Sunday after coming under attack from a stone throwing mob of up to 500 people on Saturday. The attack was against the British government's support for the recent U.S. missile strikes. The demonstrators smashed windows and tore up the British flag during the 20 minute attack on the building, while embassy staff hid inside.

Although Britons are being urged to travel to Sudan only if their visit is essential, the Foreign Office said there were no plans to bring the 12 embassy staff out of Sudan as about 200 Britons remained in the country.

The Embassy said: "British nationals in Sudan should exercise vigilance and caution and undertake no unnecessary journeys."

LEAD FOCUS

The intention of most terrorists is to achieve their goals through a change of government policy. But what are the demands or the motives of those who planted bombs in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam?

During terrorism's heyday in the 1970's, acts of political violence such as hijackings, kidnappings and bombings were usually accompanied by a quick claim of responsibility. Germany's Red Brigades, the Palestinian Black September group and the Irish Republican Army all wanted their names to be known and feared. They also wanted their goals put on the world's agenda.

Even though the United States has now officially pinned the blame of the terrorist bombings in Kenya and Tanzania on the Osama bin Laden terrorist network, no credible group has come forth and claimed responsibility? Why is that?

Professor Simona Sharoni of American University in Washington believes the lack of a claim and the date the bombings occurred -- August 7th -- are themselves clues to the perpetrator. That date, says Professor Sharoni is the anniversary of the arrival of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia. They were originally sent to help defend Kuwait against Iraq in the 1990 Gulf War -- U.S. troops have remained on Saudi soil for the past eight years. Most terrorism experts believe the 1996 truck bombing of a building housing U.S. military personnel in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia was linked to the person reported to be the prime suspect in the Kenya and Tanzania bombings -- a Saudi millionaire living in Afghanistan: Osama bin Laden.

According to Sharoni, this was, in a way, claiming responsibility because the message was in the choice of a particular date and there was the clue as to which groups carried out the attacks. The Amercian University professor said that the omission of the detail that it happened on the eighth anniversary of the deployment of troops in Saudi Arabia would have opened a whole discussion, that would not be around the act itself but the political context. And even without claiming responsibility it didn't take to much to try and find them.

Sharoni said, "And what's more important for them is the message to the broader audience. It's a whole different logic in my view that underlies this new phenomenon, that basically means signalling the United States that as long as it has troops in the Gulf and particularly in Saudi Arabia, where the most sacred Islamic sites are, its emisarries are not going to be safe anywhere else. There are signs that the presence of those forces for the past eight years in Saudi Arabia is an abomination."

Even though there was no actual claim of responsibility for the African bombings, can the actual claim be derived from the anniversary date? And is the message from the bombings for the U.S. to remove its troops from Saudi Arabia?

Professor Sharoni says yes, and thinks that if analysts were to follow the attack on the Khobar Towers in Dharan and then the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, a pattern emerges. In all three cases, there hasn't been a claim of responsibility by the group carrying out the attack. And in all cases there's been a connection to U.S. deployment of forces in Saudi Arabia.

By acting anonymously, it creates a whole debate. The debate about what could be the reason to strike against the United States? It opens a public debate about U.S. foreign policy, about the perception of the United States as a leader on the world stage and about U.S. presence in Saudi Arabia.

The deputy director of Cairo's al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Mohamed Sayed Sa'id, says that the bombings in Africa were meant to send the message that the terrorists have a global reach and they are not a meager or small-sized organization.

Many experts believe the African bombings are related to issues in the Middle East. They note several terrorist groups have targeted U.S. interests in order to protest U.S. policies in the region.

Professor Sayed says a number of these groups met earlier this year in Central Asia and agreed to form a united front. He says some of these groups strongly object to the U.S. military presence in the Arab world and in particular in Saudi Arabia, which is home to the two holiest shrines in Islam.

Other groups object to a recent international extradition agreement that has seen many dissidents returned home for trial and prison. Some of these dissidents have already been convicted of terrorism, but others have not been tried, causing protests from human rights groups.

A researcher at the al-Ahram Center, Halla Moustafa says because of U.S. policies, Islamists are gaining support in the region, following several years of setbacks.

Professor Moustafa says the U.S. government is perceived as favoring Israel in the peace process and this perception is reducing its diplomatic effectiveness in the region. U.S. officials dispute this assertion and say they are equally frustrated with the lack of progress in the peace process, but say privately they fear the stalemate may continue until there is a change of government in Israel. Arab leaders say they fear a resurgence of violence in the region if the crisis is not defused.

Professor Sayed notes that despite the frustration most people in the Middle East reject terrorism because violence goes against their religion and hurts their political causes.

Sayed said, "I think events of this nature are universally condemned in the Arab and Islamic world because they continue to pollute the image of Islam and they are intended to reverse the rising sympathy within the United States with the plight of the Palestinian people and the need for justice for the Palestinians."

Virtually all analysts in the Middle East region acknowledge violence -- like the bombings in Kenya and Tanzania -- disrupt normal life for a period of time and divert the attention of world leaders from cooperation on the joint pursuit of long-term strategic goals. They say that may well serve the interests of those for whom those long-term goals represent a threat.

Many Muslims throughout the world are concerned that whether terorist attacks are anonymous or not -- radical Islamists tend to be blamed. This, they say, only further fuels the Western tendency to equate Islam with violence.

***** 

TERRORISM/POLITICAL VIOLENCE

EUROPE

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - The Times newspaper in London was reporting that terrorist financier Osama bin Laden had intended to meet other terrorist leaders last week at a camp that was attacked by U.S. missiles, but called off the conference because he suspected a U.S. raid was being planned. The newspaper cited Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, as the source for its report.

Atwan told the Times that a spokesman for bin Laden had telephoned him after the U.S. attack and said a special conference had been planned for last Friday at the training camp near the town of Khost in Afghanistan that was hit by U.S. cruise missiles. The conference would have brought together bin Laden with other Islamic militants, including those responsible for the assassination of Egypt's President Anwar Sadat.

But, according to the London paper, bin Laden suspected he was about to be attacked when diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad were ordered to leave the previous Sunday. Atwan told the Times: "There was going to be a meeting at Khost last Friday, but it was cancelled because bin Laden knew a raid was being planned by the Americans. He called it off."

***

LONDON (EmergencyNet News) - The British government said on Sunday it had evidence that Osama bin Laden, the terrorist believed to have masterminded the attacks on U.S. embassies in east Africa, was trying to acquire chemical and biological weapons. British Defense Secretary George Robertson said Britain also had evidence bin Laden was responsible for the bombs in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam and that he planned more atrocities.

Robertson spoke out in defense of the U.S., which has come under attack over its missile strikes on targets in Sudan and Afghanistan. The Sudanese have called on the United Nations Security Council to investigate the strike on a factory in their capital Khartoum, which they say was only producing medicines.

Robertson warned international terrorists that there would be "dire" consequences if British embassies were bombed. He said he had spoken to U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen and insisted the Americans had "compelling evidence" that the Khartoum factory, flattened in the missile strike, had been producing chemical weapons.

Citing no comment of intellligence matters, the British Ministry of Defense declined to give further details of the evidence the government had of bin Laden seeking to acquire chemical and biological weapons.

Robertson also warned terrorists that Britain would defend its embassies around the world in the same way as the United States. He said, "We have given the same indications and the same warnings to international terrorists who would threaten our embassies that the consequences would be dire on them if they did it."

Although Britons are being urged not to travel to Sudan unless their visit is essential, the Foreign Office said there were no plans to bring the 12 embassy staff out of Sudan as about 200 Britons remained in the country.

On Sunday, there were indications that bin Laden may be outliving his welcome in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's Taliban rulers said they were restricting the movements of bin Laden, but only to protect him. A Taliban said bin Laden would be allowed to travel only "in Taliban controlled Afghanistan and he will be provided security by Taliban fighters".

***

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

KANDAHAR, AFGHANISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - A Pakistan-based Afghan news service said on Monday that Afghanistan's Taleban Islamic movement has told Saudi exile Osama bin Laden not to make threatening statements against Americans after the recent U.S. strikes. Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) quoted Mullah Mohammad Omar, the supreme leader of the Taleban militia, that he had expressed his "anger" to bin Laden on Sunday over his threats of retaliation against the United States.

Bin Laden had said last week that a war had started and Americans should wait for an answer after their attacks. Speaking from the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, Omar said: "I sent a message to bin Laden yesterday making it clear to him not to make military and political statements against anyone from our soil. I am angry because Osama is making anti- American statements from our soil and I stressed on him not to do so. He (Bin Laden) has broken his promise of not using our soil for making such statements because he had been stopped from doing so in the past as well. There cannot be two different and parallel emirates (or governments) in Afghanistan."

Omar said bin Laden had agreed to "obey" the Taleban's instructions and promised not to make any further statements against America.

*****

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

WASHINGTON (EmergencyNet News) - Newsweek magazine reported on Sunday that a confession to Pakistani authorities by a suspect in the U.S. embassy bombings in Africa was a key factor in the decision for POTUS to order strikes against terrorist sites in Afghanistan and Sudan. Newsweek said that another factor providing the President with the evidence he wanted of involvement by militant Saudi exile Osama bin Laden in the 7 August bombings was an intercepted mobile phone conversation between two of bin Laden's lieutenants that implicated them in the bombings.

In its latest edition, Newsweek said that before ordering the military action POTUS sought firm evidence of bin Laden's involvement in the bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam.

Mohammad Sadik Odeh, a 33-year-old Palestinian, was arrested on 7 August when he arrived in the Pakistani city of Karachi from Nairobi. He reportedly told Pakistani authorities he was involved in the bombings and said he was working for bin Laden. He was later flown back to Africa for questioning by Kenyan police and the FBI in Nairobi, where U.S. officials say he retracted his confession. But ERRI analysts have suspected all along, despite U.S. attempts to downplay Odeh's value, he has been singing like a canary to investigators.

Newsweek said that Odeh told Pakistani investigators that "he built a bomb for the embassy in Tanzania on orders from Ali Saleh, an Egyptian extremist long linked to bin Laden. He said the attack on the Nairobi embassy was organized by Ali Saleh and four other men; an Egyptian named Abdur Rehman, a man from the Comoros named Haroon and two Kenyans of Yemeni extraction named Fahd and Sheikh Babamand." He also named people involved in organizing the bomb in Tanzania.

The weekly news magazine also said that in a meeting on 12 August of the so-called Small Group of senior military and security officials involved in planning the strikes, "Clinton had set a tough standard of proof." It added he wanted it to be evidence that the Small Group members "would regard as conclusive."

SECURITY NEWS FOR TRAVELERS

N.AFRICA-MIDDLE EAST-S.ASIA

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - Amid fears of an additional U.S. strike on Afghanistan, foreign nationals are said to be fleeing that country and heading for Pakistan. Westerners working on several oil exploration projects in Balochistan, a province of Pakistan, have left their posts. Reports from the northwestern border province say foreigners have been advised to leave or to stay in their hotels.

United Nations officials and relief workers have left Afghanistan for Islamabad, and most Western consulate personnel are either already in Islamabad or on their way there.

All materials (C) Copyright, EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1998 - unless indicated otherwise by title, mark or description. All Rights Reserved. Further redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.

The ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT is a subscription publication of the EmergencyNet NEWS Service, which is a part of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute. This publication specializes in Security/Terrorism/Intelligence/Military and National Security issues.

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