Excerpted from the ENN Daily Report - 11/07/96 - Vol. 2, No. 312

COULD THE TALIBAN BRING STABILITY TO AFGHANISTAN?
By Steve Macko, ENN Editor

If you want to freeze the blood of officials at the U.S. State Department, the Pentagon or at the White House all you have to do is merely mention the words: "Islamic fundamentalists." Visions of extreme, radical, militants will march through the heads of policymakers.

And why not? Ever since radical Iranians took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, followed by a number of terrorist bombings and hijackings in the early and mid-1980s. The mere phrase of "fundamentalist Islam" makes most Americans want to run to a bomb shelter or as in the case of most of the people who read this publication -- look for means of retaliation.

The Taliban, a Sunni Muslim religious militia captured the Afghan capital of Kabul in late September. The Islamic clerics and followers of this movement seized the capital after a two- year campaign against government forces. After taking Kabul, the Talban moved quickly to establish a new civil order in Afghanistan. Though their actions were seen as less physically brutal, they nevertheless were very harsh. The Taliban leadership closed down all of the girls' schools. Women were ordered not to go to work outside of the home. If women were to venture on the outside, they were to cover their bodies from head to toe -- or face beatings. All of this was in the name of a traditional Islamic code. Women all over the country are reported to be furious and depressed by the Taliban actions.

The neighbors of Afghanistan and Western governments are less concerned with the social and religious activities than they are about strategic questions. Analysts are being asked: Will the Taliban be a stabilizing or a disruptive force in a region of expanding Islamic influence that is now spreading from Pakistan to Turkey and through central Asia?

Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at the Council of Foreign Relations, said, "The answer is, yes. Most likely they will be both."

In the short term, the Taliban are expected to be a stabilizing force -- if they can hold onto power and there is still a question of that. They will stabilize Afghanistan that has been at some kind of war with itself or with outside invaders seemingly forever. After the Soviets withdrew in 1989 and the puppet communist regime folded in 1992, the tribes in the country resumed their everlasting battle against one another.

Historically, Afghans always battle each other for control of the country. When the country is invaded by outside forces, the tribes then combine forces to repel the invader -- and they usually are victorious -- they then turn on each other once again.

For the past four years, the tribes have been fighting a bloody civil war.

It was hoped that with the Taliban emerging as the single dominant force in the country, the devastation of war and the misery to million of refugees would finally come to an end. Recent pictures of the capital of Kabul, show a city reduced to virtual rubble.

Neighboring Pakistan, a country that is also going through political turmoil -- though not on the level of Afghanistan -- hopes that Afghan stability will allow the opening of safe trade routes to Central Asia, which would be an alternative to dealing with the outlaw state of Iran.

Other encouraging signs of the Taliban being in control is, as Rubin explains, "The Taliban do not have any links to Islam's international radicals. In fact, they hate them." As mentioned, the Taliban are Sunni Muslims, not Shi'ites like the Iranians.

"And they are not into exporting revolution," said Zalmay Khalilzad, who is an Afghan-born senior analyst at the Rand Corporation. As long as the new Afghan regime is not involved with international radicals, the U.S. apparently cares little about who governs the country -- as long as it is governed.

The bad news is that the Taliban are probably most unlikely to hold onto power in the long-term. They could anger the Pakistanis or the Uzbeks or the Tajiks. India is nervous about the Taliban. They worry about an alliance with Pakistan. Russia is worried about them, as well. They don't need anymore trouble on their southern border.

The Taliban Islamic beliefs are described as medieval and are said to be hopelessly incompatiable with modern Islam and with incorporation into a world economy. Afghanistan has always been one of the poorest countries in the world -- and to not attempt to involve itself in a modern world economy will only push Afghanistan further behind.

An interview with the Taliban foreign minister this past weekend on CBS' newsmagazine "60 Minutes" indicated a young individual who really had no experience and little knowledge of world events or of a world economy.

The Taliban is a movement that was born out of a civil war and its leadership has no experience in governing and apparently has no plans to modernize -- which, most likely means certain doom, because they would only be stuck in a rut and spinning their wheels. The populace would eventually grow inpatient and another civil war would start. Or in order to stem an uprising -- the Taliban government would have to become oppressive to maintain control.

Movements, such as the Taliban, rarely hold together. Internally they are doomed to split. Just like the Kurds.

"Revolutionary societies are never a source of stability, although they are invariably a source of exaggerated short-term hope," said Anthony Cordesman, who is a well-respected regional security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The questions will be: If the Taliban can hang on to power and then shift from being a movement to a government? Are they tolerant enough to reach out to other ethnic groups in order to establish a program of economic reconstruction?

The experts say that the odds are not in favor of the Taliban. They appear to not understand that you cannot hide yourself from the world and expect to thrive as a society in today's world.

Momentarily, the Taliban are in power. But it may be just that ... only for a moment.

(C) Emergencynet News Service, 1996. All rights reserved. Redistribution without permission prohibited.

Return to the Military Operations Page