Synopsis/Summary:
ERRI
crisis and counter-terrorism analysts have been warning
about economic warfare and the use of oil as a weapon since
at least 2001. Additionally, on several occasions, we have
reported about plans by terrorist non-state actors to use
various kinds of asymmetric warfare to defeat their enemies
in the West.
In brief, it has been the belief of ERRI analysts for some
time that oil is being used directly and indirectly "as a
strategic weapon" by both nation states and non-state
organizations in an attempt to coerce various policy changes
by the U.S. and allied governments.
Although purely economic and
normal "supply and demand" factors are undoubtedly involved
in the current petroleum situation, it increasingly appears
that the recent and dramatic run-up of oil prices could be
the result of a number of convergent and purposeful
strategies propagated by geo-political and ideological
opponents of the Western democracies in general and the
United States, specifically.
Notable in this assessment are
recent events and circumstances relating to the countries of
Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia.
Moreover, statements, threats, and attacks by terrorist and
insurgent groups are outlined to give the reader a better
understanding of how the current oil crisis has emerged.
Below and in the sidebar, you
will find numerous internal references and on-going analysis
of this emergent problem as it has developed. Additionally,
reports of various kinds of events, that led the world to
its current energy situation, are also included for the
reader's consideration.
Economic Warfare?: New Call By Al-Qaeda For Attacks on Oil
Targets
DUBAI, U.A.E.: An alleged Saudi wing of al Qaeda called for
attacks on U.S. oil sources across the world, saying targets
should not be limited to the Middle East and listing Canada,
Venezuela and Mexico as U.S. oil suppliers.
The threat appeared in the al Qaeda Organization in the
Arabian Peninsula's e-magazine, Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of Holy
War), which was posted on a Web site used by Islamist
militants.
"It is necessary to hit oil interests in all regions which
serve the United States not just in the Middle East. The
goal is to cut its supplies or reduce them through any
means," it said.
The group was behind the February 2006 failed suicide attack
on the world's largest oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia.
In 2003, al Qaeda militants launched a violent campaign to
topple the U.S.-allied Saudi royal family with suicide
attacks on compounds housing Westerners and on government
buildings. -- Source: Reuters, 11:17 a.m. EST, February 14,
2007
[ERRI counter-terrorism analysts said that "economic
warfare" has been a long-time Al-Qaeda goal, as established
by Ayman Zawahiri, who has repeatedly said that he believes
that this is an American "point of vulnerability."]
Previous ERRI reference:
"U.S. Intelligence Concerned That Al-Qaeda Plans To Attack
Oil Fields," on the net at:
http://www.emergency.com/2001/ter-advsry-sum.htm
-- Source: ERRI DAILY
INTELLIGENCE REPORT, EmergencyNet News Service, Wednesday,
February 14, 2007, Vol. 13, No. 045, which can
be found at:
http://www.emergency.com/enntext_file/INT13-045.html
Posted 3/2/2006 11:59 AM
Document: al-Qaeda encourages oil attacks
CAIRO, EGTYPT: al-Qaeda has encouraged its followers to
attack oil pipelines and facilities in Muslim countries and
tankers but not wells, according to a document posted on a
website by the group that targeted the world's largest
oil-processing complex in Saudi Arabia.
The document was at least a year old, but al-Qaeda's branch
in Saudi Arabia posted it earlier this week on an Islamic
militant Web forum to show the religious justification for
the Feb. 24 attempt to blow up the Abqaiq facility, the
Associated Press and USAToday reported.
"Targeting oil interests is legitimate economic jihad. In
this era, economic jihad is one of the best ways to spite
non-believers," said the document, written by Abdul Aziz bin
Rasheed al-Anzy, described by Saudi authorities as one of
al-Qaeda's key "ideologues."
Saudi police wounded and arrested al-Anzy in May 2005. The
document, though not dated, was written before then. Its
authenticity could not be independently confirmed.
"Oil is the basis of modern industry and the backbone of
industries in infidel countries. With it, America was able
to impose its dominance on the world," al-Anzy purportedly
wrote in the 63-page document, titled "The Ruling on
Targeting Oil Interests."
-- Source:
http://www.emergency.com/archives/03-01-2006_03-31-2006.htm
- Related reference:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-03-02-oil-document_x.htm
Oil Prices/Economic Warfare
Even for those not old enough to remember gasoline lines
from the oil shocks of the '70s, the sharp spike in oil
prices this year was enough to get anyone worried. The
climbing price of crude oil futures came to have such a
rattling effect on the stock market that CNBC started
including a box on screen with the current price per barrel
along with other market indicators like the Dow Jones
industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Oil prices have since eased to about $44 a barrel, but oil
is still in the news as questions remain about how low the
temperature might fall this winter, and whether that might
tax heating oil supplies...
07 January 2005
-- Top Ten (Most Significant) Emergency, Intelligence,
Military News Stories of 2004, which can be found at:
http://www.emergency.com/2004/topten_2004.htm
28 Sep 2004
Record Oil Prices Caused
by Conflicts/Insurgencies
NYC: Crude oil hit $50 per barrel in after-hours trading
in New York due to concerns about possible supply
disruptions in Nigeria, where rebels have threatened to wage
war against oil producers, and because of ongoing supply
concerns in Iraq and Russia. Analysts said instability in
the Middle East, political unrest in Nigeria, Africa's top
oil exporter, and damage to U.S. production from the
Caribbean's hurricanes were keeping traders on edge about
world supplies.
In related news, insurgents in Nigeria’s southern Niger
Delta reportedly will begin “a full-scale armed struggle” to
wrest control of the region’s oil riches from the government
on Friday, a rebel spokesman said today. Fears of disruption
in Nigerian oil supplies has already sent world prices
spiraling beyond 50 US dollars a gallon.
Moujahid Dokubo-Asari, leader of the Niger Delta "People’s
Volunteer Force," also warned that all oil company employees
would be legitimate targets and advised foreign embassies to
pull their nationals out of the oil region.
“We will target government infrastructure and oil company
personnel,” Dokubo-Asari reportedly said. “Oil facilities
will not be targeted since it will endanger the
environment.”
ERRI crisis analysts have previously reported on several
occasions about a "rising insurgency" in Nigeria...and
suggested that it could even be part of a larger plot to
increase world oil prices and engage in a kind of "economic
warfare" against the United States and her allies.
-- Source:
http://www.emergency.com/cntrterr.htm
07/11/2004 --
Infrastructure Vulnerabilities in the U.S.A. and 21st
Century Terrorism
One of the prime objectives
mentioned by several Al Al-Qaeda insiders (to include Ayman
Zawahiri, Abu Musab Zarqawi, and probable propaganda
mouthpiece Abu Hafs al al-Masri Brigade) is to damage the
economic strength of the United States. The terrorist intent
on this point is clear....
Petroleum refineries,
processing facilities, and pipelines have been the target of
terrorist events in several countries. Police reports in the
U.S.A. suggest that surveillance of these facilities has
been underway in recent months. Such surveillance has often
been noted as pre-attack indicator. ERRI analysts say that
they are concerned about terror attacks on such targets in
this country, in an effort to dramatically effect gasoline
prices...
-- Source:
http://www.emergency.com/pdf/Infrastructure%20Vulnerabilities.pdf
June, 2004 -- World World-Wide Terrorism
Reporting and
Predictive Threat Briefing
Economic Warfare??
...A new report from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies
says Al Qaeda's insurgency campaign against Saudi Arabia has
increased the price of crude oil by up to $10 (to more than
$40.00) a barrel and poses a continuing threat to the
Western economy. A purported Al--Qaeda statement claimed
Friday (04 June 2004) that high oil prices, which were
pushed up further by last weekend's deadly attacks on
foreign oil workers in Saudi Arabia, were "in the interests
of Muslims". The message was attributed to Abdul Aziz
alattributed al--Muqrin, who was identified as "the chief of
Alof Al--Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula."
Two deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia in the past month suggest
to ERRI analysts that Al Qaeda Qaeda-linked cells are
attempting to drive away Western oil workers, damage the
Saudi petroleum industry, and slow the world (particularly
U.S.) economy...
http://www.emergency.com/2004/terr_threat_assess_june2004.pdf
04 Dec 2003
PHILOSOPHY OF TERRORISM/ECONOMIC TARGETS
The Six Enemies of Islam, According to Ayman Zawahiri
CHICAGO, IL: Ayman Zawahiri, Usama Bin Laden's number
two and former leader of Egyptian Jihad, is quoted by the
London-based Arabic newspaper Al-Sharq-Awsat, as saying (1):
"In addition to the United States and Russia, the six
greatest enemies of Islam are...
-- the United Nations,
-- the friendly rulers [to the Western nations] of the
Muslim people,
-- the multinational corporations,
-- the international communications and data-exchange
systems,
-- the international news agencies and satellite media
channels, and
-- the international relief agencies, which are used as
cover for espionage, proselytizing, coup planning, and the
transfer of weapons."
The newspaper obtained this quote from a book written by
Zawahiri entitled "Knights Under the Prophet's Banner." (1)
ERRI analyst Clark Staten said that this statement is
extremely notable due to the fact that it clearly describes
an intended assault on the very technology which makes
the United States and her Western allies successful in many
spheres of world events...including but not limited to:
international business, banking and economic systems,
military affairs, academia, and service industries. It is an
acknowledgement by Zawahiri that these are the strengths of
the Western nations and he implicitly expresses a desire to
destroy these capabilities that give the Western
civilizations an advantage over strictly observant Islamic
nations.
Secondarily, and maybe more
fundamentally [pun intended], it also appears to express a
subliminal desire by Zawahiri to return to a long past
century (7th through 12th) when Muslim glory and prestige
was at its height, Staten said.
As one can see by reviewing the list of 'enemies' above that
at least some of these institutions may have already been
targets in various terrorist attacks that have taken place
in recent years. For instance, the World Trade Center was
both a home of "multinational corporations" and
"communications and data-exchange systems." Staten also said
that this statement by Zawahiri may provide a "future target
list" for Al-Qaeda operations.
Additional reference:
1. "Losing Bin Laden, How
Bill Clinton's Failures Unleashed Global Terror," Miniter,
R., Regnery Publishing, 2003, Pg. 49, 278
-- Source:
http://www.emergency.com/1999/bnldn-pg.htm
Attacks on Economic and Infrastructure Targets
...Perpetrated by mercenaries, ideological or religious
zealots-- it doesn't matter which -- corporations and
business networks will undoubtedly become future targets of
terrorism. More enlightened terrorists have discovered
(maybe already in some countries), or will discover soon,
that the path to the fear and chaos that they crave most may
be more easily achieved by a series of wide-scale attacks on
infrastructure/ economic (soft) targets, rather than by
attacking military and police forces.
These concepts, and the inherent threats thereto, will
become even more evident and viable in future megatropolis
cities where millions will live in what will be a very
fragile and easily combustible (in more than one sense of
the word) environment. It is believed that these future
societies of largely urbanized populations will be even more
vulnerable and susceptible to manipulation by insurgents
using terror and low intensity warfare tactics...
-- Source: December,
2002 -- Terrorism Threat Assessment and Asymmetric
Warfare Analysis (To Include Weapons of Mass Destruction)
Can be found at:
http://www.emergency.com/2003/TerrThrtAssessDec2002_files/frame.htm
18 May 2001 -
09:30CDT
COMMENTARY-OP/ED
Emerging Infrastructure Failures and the "NIMBY" Syndrome
By: C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst, Emergency Response & Research
Institute
...Becoming a National
Security Problem??
Our current dependence on foreign sources of petroleum
places the U.S.A. at a disadvantage and may subject it to
"economic terrorism" and what could be called "extortion,"
perpetrated by petroleum-producing countries in the future.
As America turns itself into an "information society,"
rather than a "smokestack economy," the issue of plentiful
and reliable electricity becomes increasingly important. Our
overall strategic superiority is often based in the
advantages that we obtain from our computer-based technology
and therein also lies a vulnerability that can be exploited
by enemies using asymmetric means...to include attacks on
our power grids and other infrastructure. We must build and
protect a reliable electrical system in America, if she is
to continue to grow and prosper...
-- Source:
http://www.emergency.com/2001/nimby-failure.htm
Fuel Crisis/Infrastructure Failures/WORLDWIDE
ERRI To Examine Oil as A "Weapon of Asymmetric Warfare"
By Paul Anderson
Chicago, IL (EmergencyNet News) -- According to Emergency
Response & Research Institute's (ERRI) executive director,
Clark Staten, the Chicago-based crisis institute has begun
an examination of the socio-economic and geo-political
implications of recent oil shortages and ever escalating
price increases. Staten, who has been studying "asymmetric
warfare" for several years, says that the current fuel
crisis has many of the earmarks of being an orchestrated
effort to use petroleum products as "weapon of economic
warfare." Further, Staten says, oil prices and the
availability of petroleum products are increasingly becoming
an emerging "national security problem."
"Asymmetric warfare theory says that an adversary uses
whatever weapons are available to attack the weaknesses of
of its intended victim...in this case, the weakness that may
be exploited is an seemingly unending thirst for vast
amounts of petroleum products by the United States and her
allies throughout the world," Staten said. "A close
examination of the larger issue would seem to suggest that
certain oil producers in the world, who are not friends of
the United States, may using oil as strategic weapon,"
Staten continued.
-- Source: 15 Jan
2001 -- Top Ten Emergency Service/National Security
Stories of 2000, which can be found at:
http://www.emergency.com/2001/2000_topten.htm
The War on Terrorism, the World Oil
Market and the U.S. Economy,
