11 January, 2007

INT13-011a -- Supplement to the EmergencyNet News Daily Intelligence Report

IRAQ Sit-Rep

The President's Address: Counterinsurgency in Iraq/Countering Iran

BAGHDAD, IRAQ: In war movies (and occasionally in actual battles) last minute rallies carrying the day, just as things look most desperate, are a frequent plot device. This is roughly President Bushs play with the troop surge he announced in his speech earlier on Wednesday (10 Jan 2007). Counterinsurgency however is not a sprint - it is a marathon run.

Dr. David Kilcullen, an Australian Lt. Colonel advising the U.S. government has described the goal of counterinsurgency as returning the insurgencys parent society to its normal mode of interaction, on terms favorable to us. The means are, in Kilcullens words, armed social work.* Other experts have variously described counterinsurgency as establishing legitimate authority by providing basic services, most notably ensuring the personal security the first priority of any government. This would be an enormous challenge in any circumstance, but in an insurgency an adaptive foe is devoting all of its energies to undermining the re-establishment of lawful order.

This is not a task that is accomplished quickly. Campaigns are measured at best in years and frequently in decades. While 20,000 troops dedicated to securing Baghdad may help on the ground it may hurt in that other crucial front the information war.

As international communication has become faster, counter-insurgency has become more difficult. Even successful counterinsurgency will include many setbacks. To citizens at home the news of these continual setbacks can create the image of an endless morass of violence and undermine public support for the war. The surge, along with more assertive confrontations with militias and terrorists, could actually lead to increased U.S. casualties. Ironically, in counterinsurgency sometimes that can be a good sign (casualties can indicate that the insurgents who prefer to avoid direct combat are being forced into it or that the counterinsurgent forces are operating deep in the insurgents territory).

While the President noted that violence would continue for some time, American support for the Iraqi endeavor and confidence that the President knows how to turn the situation around are very low. Consequently, even if the surge of troops does improve the situation on the ground, it will probably not lead to a perception of improvement among the U.S. public. Most importantly, it must be understood that the insurgents know this too, and are consciously trying to increase the perception that American troops are powerless to impose order in Iraq... -- Source: By Aaron Mannes, The Counter-Terrorism Blog, 10 Jan 2007. Article continues at: http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/01/the_presidents_address_counter.php


ERRI CEO's Comments on "Perceptions" and the War in Iraq
By Paul Anderson, EmergencyNet News Correspondent

* Definition:
perception (p?r-sep'sh?n) n.
The process, act, or faculty of perceiving.
The effect or product of perceiving.

Psychology:
Recognition and interpretation of sensory stimuli based chiefly on memory. The neurological processes by which such recognition and interpretation are effected.

Insight, intuition, or knowledge gained by perceiving. The capacity for such insight.

* Quotes About Perception:

"All propaganda has to be popular and has to adapt its spiritual level to the perception of the least intelligent of those towards whom it intends to direct itself." -- Adolf Hitler, in "Mein Kampf"

"We don't see things as they are. We see them as we are." -- Anais Nin, American writer (1903-1977)

"All perception of truth is the detection of an analogy." -- Author: Henry David Thoreau

"The real distinction is between those who adapt their purposes to reality and those who seek to mold reality in the light of their purposes." -- Henry Kissinger (1923 - )

"Four hostile newspapers are more to be feared than a thousand bayonets." -- Napoleon, Maxims

ERRI CEO and Sr. analyst Clark Staten said today that what he thinks that what Mr. Mannes is talking about is a matter of "perception"....in Iraq, on the streets of America, in the halls of Washington, and throughout the rest of the world. "Perception management and information operations are a great deal more important now than they ever were in any conflict in the history of the United States" Staten said.

"In our opinion, one of the most important issues that the U.S. and her allies are facing is that of maintaining the 'moral high ground' and convincing the world of the respectability of our intentions," Staten said. "In a time of diminishing natural resources (read oil) and ever greater world-wide consumption, our enemies in the world have been very successful in portraying the United States as a 'greedy capitalist robber baron' who invaded Iraq in order to acquire their abundant petroleum assets," the veteran analyst continued.

"Additionally, other opponents have framed the 'Global War on Terror' as a 'religious crusade' being carried out by a largely Christian United States against the 'downtrodden and oppressed' Muslim populations of the world," he added. "Particularly the radical fringe elements of Islam who favor the creation of a new caliphate in the Middle-East have been vehement in their attempt to depict America and her allies as 'invaders and occupiers,' who harbor dishonorable motivations and ignominious intent," Staten continued.

"And," Staten added, "The Al-Jazeera channels of the world have been almost exultant in their coverage of any perceived atrocity alleged to have been carried by U.S. or allied forces in Iraq...when in reality, and compared to previous major wars, there have actually been very few incidents of abuse or maltreatment of enemy combatants."

"Maybe more important than the foreign propaganda...political opponents in our own country have used the conflict in Iraq as a heavy stick to bash the Republican party in general and President Bush in particular....thus weakening the overall resolve of the country to sustain the long battle that will undoubtedly be required to win against the Islamo-facists of the world," Staten added.

"All-in-all, opponents of various kinds have been largely victorious in the information war and psychological operations that overarch (and undermine) the United States' continuing battle against extremists...we as a country, have not been very good at shaping the personal perception of our own citizens, nor much of the rest of the world," he continued.

"While our enemies in Iraq have not won a major battle against the U.S. military, they apparently did learn something from Ho Chi Minh and Viet Nam... namely that you can't defeat the U.S. militarily, but if you can create enough political dissent and social acrimony in the United States...you can force a withdrawal of U.S. forces and win your fight in that way," Staten said. "The most important battle of the war in Iraq was not fought in Iraq...but rather in the minds of our citizens and at ballot boxes all over America, he added.

"The reader would also be well served to read about General Andr Beaufre (1902-1975) and his studies and conclusions about the Algerian War of Independence (195462), and French involvement in in Indochina which resulted in the March 1954, defeat of French forces during the Battle of Dien Bien Phu," Staten recommended.

"Beayfre's involvement in these two conflicts allowed him to gain a very useful knowledge of people he called 'moral warriors' who exploited the strategic use of morality to influence the outcome of the wars in both Algeria and Viet Nam," he continued.(1)

"Although Beaufre was, at that time, fighting in what were being called 'wars of liberation' and against communism... the lessons to be learned about manipulation of world opinion while appearing to be the 'underdog who is fighting the colonialist oppressor' should be committed to memory by the United States and her allies," Staten added. "These same rhetorical games and information strategies, used by their opponents to diminish world opinion of the of France during its incursions into Viet Nam and Algeria are now being used to separate and isolate the sole superpower left in the world...the United States," he continued.

"If America hopes to turn this situation around with just a 'troop surge,' and not radical change her approach and implementation of information and perception management programs...it appears doomed to failure," Staten asserted.

"The true hypocrisies and devious ambitions of the Islamo-facists must be widely publicized and understood in Europe and the Islamic countries...and most of all, America's true altruism and unbridled advocacy of freedom and democracy must be allowed to shine through the doom and gloom of potential defeat that has been created by her detractors, where ever or whomever they might be," the long time military historian added.

"The terrorists are not the 'good guys' and the United States and her allies are not the 'bad guys'...this is ultimately the message that America must both understand and disseminate...or eventually, all lovers of true freedom will suffer terribly at the hands of these extremists," Staten concluded.

Recommended Reference:

1. "The 33 Strategies of War," by Robert Greene and Joost Elffers, published by Viking Books/Penguin Group, 2006
 

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