30 July 2006

ERRI Analysis Of Situation in Mid-East
by C. L. Staten, Sr. Analyst

CHICAGO, IL: Iran and Ahmadinejad, just like any other "small-time bully," continue to believe that they are "winning" in the current multi-dimensional conflict in the Middle-East.  We believe that Iran will continue its aggression in the region until it suffers a devastating defeat that awakens isolated and arrogant Iranian leaders to their very real vulnerability. Our most current analysis would suggest that they are currently winning, at
least some extent. In this case, Tehran -- through its surrogate Hezbollah -- can win simply by "not losing." 

Each day that Hezbollah continues their attacks on Israel, they gain credibility and political capitol in Tehran and Syria and visibility in the rest of the world. And...more importantly...they demonstrate that a committed and well armed "insurgent group," using unconventional weapons and tactics, can undertake attacks on a nation-state, without being immediately destroyed. This situation does not bode well for the future as a recognized terror organization show that they can engage in military acts that were previously limited only to countries.

How and why is this happening?  Many experts, including those at ERRI, say that the rocket and terror attacks being carried out by Hezbollah is an example of 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare), or asymmetric warfare. Furthermore, and maybe more important in the overall equation, are the political and moral restraints being placed on Israel by other countries...many of whom either have a vested interest in selling weapons to the Iran/Syria/Hezbollah...or have political or religious conflicts with Tel Aviv.

While the number of different facets involved in this situation is staggering, the reality is that the Palestinians have essentially lost their battle in Intifada I and II. They were unable to defeat Israel or cause a change in their policies. Many of the former Palestinian leaders are either dead or in jail. Those left have fled to Damascus, Syria or are hiding in Syria, Lebanon, or Iran. The first tier of Palestinian "resistance to occupation" has now become almost irrelevant in the "larger game," though Islamo-facists continue to trumpet the "liberation of Palestinian lands," as their stated objective.

So, a second tier of combatants emerges...this time it is Hezbollah. Hezbollah, an organization that believes it successfully forced Israel out of Lebanon, rises as it is trained and armed for six years by a sponsors of a "holy war" to regain Islamic control of the Middle-East and ultimately to establish a world-wide Islamic caliphate.

The main causes of the conflict in the Middle-East have not yet been addressed:

In our considered opinion, one of the major goals of this struggle is an attempt to establish the hegemony of Iran in the region. Please also remember that it is a publicly stated objective of Iran and Ahmadinejad to assure the complete destruction of Israel. 

Secondarily, there are also strong under-current of conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni branches of Islam as Tehran tries to assume control of the region and religion. This divergence is presently most evident in Iraq, where the Shi'ites and Sunnis have engaged in "tit-for-tat" attacks against each other since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Third, this is a geo-political battle that involves the overall distribution of land in the Middle-East. Jihadists believe that the entire region should be a bastion of Islam, without the taint of any other religion. Israelis and others believe that the Middle-East should be made up of "liberal democracies' that are tolerant of many religions.  To the Islamists, politics are religion and religion is politics. The theocracy in Tehran should adequately demonstrate the Islamic model of an ideal "political-religious state." It is a model they want to export to other countries in the region.

Finally, our assessment implies that the bewildering situation in the Middle-East is far more complex and difficult to explain than the limited space for this article allows. We will continue to monitor events in the Mid-East closely and bring you additional reports as the circumstances warrant... 
 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Organizational Profile and Q & A
Hezbollah (a.k.a. Hizbollah, Hizbu'llah)
Author: CFR.org Staff

Can be found at: 
http://www.cfr.org/
publication/9155/

Hezbollah in Profile
2002–03
No. 42,
2 June 2003
©Commonwealth of Australia
ISSN1328-8016

Can be found at:
http://www.aph.gov
.au/library/pubs/rn/2002-03/03rn42.pdf