January, 2006
MILITARY: 4th GENERATION WARFARE THEORY (4GW)


"Fourth-Generation War and Other Myths," by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II,
                     Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

Reviewed by C. L. Staten, ERRI CEO and Senior National Security Analyst

CHICAGO, IL: It would appear that there is a controversy brewing between various factions within the military, following a report: entitled "Fourth-Generation War and Other Myths," which can be found at: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=632

Dr Antulio J. Echevarria II, in a report that has just become available on the internet, critiques the theory of fourth-generation warfare, examining its problematic assumptions and logical flaws. He argues that this theory is hopelessly flawed and that its proponents undermine their credibility by subscribing to it.

According to DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR., Director of the Strategic Studies Institute, Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II provides a critique of the theory of 4GW, "examining its faulty assumptions and the problems in its logic. He argues that the proponents of 4GW undermine their own credibility by subscribing to this bankrupt theory. If their aim is truly to create positive change, then they—and we—would be better off jettisoning the theory and retaining the traditional concept of insurgency, while modifying it to include the greater mobility and access afforded by globalization."

Synopsis:

Fourth Generation War (4GW) emerged in the late 1980s, but has become popular due to recent twists in the war in Iraq, and terrorist attacks worldwide. In brief, the theory holds that warfare has evolved through four generations:

1) the use of massed manpower,

2) firepower,

3) maneuver, and now

4) an evolved form of insurgency:

that employs all available networks—political, economic, social, military—to convince an opponent’s decision makers that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly. Further, the theory contends that this last form characterizes the terrorists’ way of fighting today. Despite reinventing itself several times, the theory has several fundamental flaws that need to be exposed before it influences U.S. operational and strategic thinking.

A critique of 4GW is both timely and important because examining the theory’s assumptions exposes significant faults in other popular notions, such as the idea of non-trinitarian war, that might exert damaging influence over U.S. strategy and military doctrine. What we are really seeing in the war on terror and the campaign in Iraq and elsewhere is that the increased "dispersion and democratization of technology, information, and finance" brought about by globalization has given terrorist groups greater mobility and access worldwide. At this point, globalization seems to aid the non-state actor more than the state, but states still play a central role in the support or defeat of terrorist groups or insurgencies. We would do well to abandon the theory of 4GW altogether, since it sheds very little, if any, light on this phenomenon.

ERRI Preliminary Assessment

Much like this very cursory and introductory review, Dr. Echevarria's criticism would appear to be long on rhetoric and short on specifics about what is actually wrong with "4th Generation Warfare Theory" as advocated by Col. GI Wilson, Col. Thomas Hammes, author of "The Sling and the Stone," Martin van Creveld (Transformation of War), William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton, and various ERRI analysts. The nature of future warfare is a topic that deserves far more thought and insight than this brief article could ever hope to accomplish. We would hope to further address Dr. Echevarria comments in a more thorough, thoughtful, and objective way in the future.

It is also interesting to note that a majority of the authors and advocates of 4GW are primarily service members (active or retired) of the U.S. Marine Corp, while Dr. Echevarria obviously is a representative of the U.S. Army War College. We're not sure if this fact is of pertinence to this discussion, but we can verify that inter-service rivalries have existed as long as there has been more than one U.S. military service. We strongly encourage additional study and discussion of this important issue and welcome reasoned opposing viewpoints.

The report in .pdf format can be downloaded at: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB632.pdf

Published November 2005, Authored by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II
The SSI Publishing Team
Strategic Studies Institute
U.S. Army War College
(717) 245-4133

Comments regarding this report are invited and should be forwarded to:
Director, Strategic Studies Institute,
U.S. Army War College,
122 Forbes Ave,
Carlisle, PA 17013-5244.

** Additional references on this topic (available on the Emergency.com website):

February 24, 1998 -- "Testimony of Clark L. Staten, Executive Director and Senior Analyst, Emergency Response & Research Institute, Chicago, IL, Before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and Government Information, U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, 'Foreign Terrorism in the United States: Five years After the World Trade Center,' which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/senate98.htm

04/27/98 -- "Asymmetric Warfare, the Evolution and Devolution of Terrorism; The Coming Challenge For Emergency and National Security Forces," By: Clark L. Staten, Executive Director & Sr. Analyst, Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI), which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/asymetrc.htm

19 February 2001 -- "Anticipating the Nature of the Next Conflict," by Wilson, GI, Bunkers, F. and Sullivan , J. which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/Emergent-thrts.htm

24 Sep 2001 -- "WAR ON TERROR-2001; What We Expect in The Coming "War on Terrorism," by Staten, C. L., can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2001/war-on-terror-2001.htm

5 May 2002 -- “Military Response to Fourth Generation Warfare in Afghanistan,” By Greg Wilcox and Gary I. Wilson, can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2002/4gw5may02.htm

29 March 2003 -- "Urban Warfare Considerations; Understanding and Combating Irregular and Guerilla Forces During A 'Conventional War' In Iraq," By C. L. Staten, ERRI, which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2003/urban_warfare_considerations.htm

 

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Additional Internal link

Fourth Generation Warfare &
OODA Loop Implications of
The Iraqi Insurgency

By: G. I. Wilson, Greg Wilcox, Chet Richards
December, 2004

Additional External Links

1/10/06 On War #147: Critics of the Fourth Generation: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, by William S. Lind

1/10/06 4GW – Myth, or the Future of Warfare? A Reply to Antulio Echevarria, by John Sayen, Lt Col, USMCR (ret.)

Many references to 4GW, unconventional warfare, other unique military matters, and additional discussion can be found at:
http://www.d-n-i.net/

Saturday, May 08, 2004
"4GW -- FOURTH GENERATION WARFARE
4GW (fourth generation wafare) is the term used by military thinkers to describe conflict at the end of the 20th century...."
Additional explanation and review of this concept can be found at:
Global Guerrillas
By John Robb