27 Jan 2005: Pentagon to Rethink Focus on Conventional Warfare

Pentagon Prepares to Rethink Focus on Conventional Warfare

27 Jan 2005

New Emphasis on Insurgencies and Terrorism Is Planned

WASHINGTON, DC: According to the Washington Post, in a by-lined article by Bradley Graham, the Pentagon has drafted terms for an ambitious reshaping of U.S. forces that would put less emphasis on waging conventional warfare and more on dealing with insurgencies, terrorist networks, failed states and other nontraditional threats, according to senior defense officials and others familiar with the confidential planning.

This proposed shift in strategic focus stems partly from a recognition that U.S. forces were inadequately prepared for the insurgency in Iraq and the wider hunt for terrorists around the world. But officials said it also grows out of a heightened perception of other potential threats.

The new thinking has emerged in a classified document being readied for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's signature by the Pentagon's policy branch in coordination with the Joint Staff and service representatives. The document, called the "Terms of Reference," sets the framework for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), which Congress has mandated to compel a comprehensive look at U.S. military strategy at the start of each presidential term. -- WP source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36459-2005Jan25.html

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY by Paul Anderson, ERRI/EmergencyNet News

CHICAGO, IL: The Emergency Response & Research Institute, and it's senior national security analyst Clark Staten, reached a similar conclusion in April of 1998. In an article entitled, "Asymmetric Warfare, the Evolution and Devolution of Terrorism; The Coming Challenge For Emergency and National Security Forces, Staten postulated that "The nature of global conflict is changing. It is the considered opinion of the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) that there is a general paradigm shift underway in regard to how future conflicts will unfold. This transition is one of form rather than substance. Mass violence, injuries and deaths will continue to occur, although we believe they will happen in different places and in differing ways than one might currently imagine."

Staten continued, "What is far more possible, however, in the coming decade, are an increasing number of "brush-fire" wars, counter-insurgency campaigns, hostage rescue operations, "drug wars," low intensity conflicts, urban combat, and "peacekeeping operations" that will require a vastly different set of tactics, equipment, training and skills than conventional military engagements of the past. Future conflicts, at least in the near term, may not involve commitments of massive numbers of troops to fixed battle zones, but will likely involve combating small units of fanatical terrorists using Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and other sophisticated tactics and technologies. As (former) Commandant of the of the Marine Corps General Charles C. Krulak, likes to say, the United States will often be fighting engagements that are more like Somalia, Haiti, and Bosnia than they are like Desert Storm." (Please see http://www.emergency.com/asymetrc.htm)

Maybe more remarkable was an article that went directly to the root of the current debate about QDR and force transformation. In an EmergencyNet News opinion article from 01/05/97 at 11:30CST, Staten wrote, "Our analysis of this issue is not complete at this time, but it would appear that it might be reasonable to discuss the very real possibility of responding to 7-10 (or more) Small Regional Conflicts (SRC) in a given time frame, rather than to focus solely on our larger commitment to major theater warfare. This estimate is based in the belief that the future will bring literally dozens of "brush-fire" conflicts and that "stateless warfare" may necessitate a larger number of responses of smaller (self-contained) specialized units of military force...in multiple locations simultaneously." It is thought that this is one of the first of the first recommendations concerning the need to transform the U.S. military in a manner similar to that which is currently being considered at the Pentagon. (Please see http://www.emergency.com/mrc2-src.htm )

In April of 1997, Staten first advocated an increase in the number of Special Forces, and planning and training efforts concerning "peacekeeping and nation building," both necessitated by what appeared to be an emerging trend towards unconventional (4th Generation) warfare and the number of humanitarian crises. He wrote, "If lessons learned in Haiti and Somalia are indicative, violence levels will continue to increase in any number of developing countries and effective law enforcement measures will need to be taken by the international community. These operations will frequently involve military/paramilitary action. Increasing numbers of peace keeping operations will probably also require greater anti/counter-terrorist capabilities and resources. Care, control, and policing of civilian populations could become an inherent and increasing problem in "peace-keeping" and "nation-building" operations. Additional training, consistent with these new missions should be provided to American troops, and greater use of larger numbers of special operations forces may also be anticipated." (Please see: http://www.emergency.com/stratknw.htm )

Unfortunately, seven years have passed between the original ERRI/EmergencyNet News analysis and recommendations and the current effort to renovate the way our military configures itself and carries out its mission in the 21st Century. Had these analyses been given greater attention, earlier, it is believed that a number of the current problems in Iraq and Afghanistan might have been resolved in the planning process.

Additional reference:
19 Feb 2001 - "Anticipating the Nature of the Next Conflict"
5 May 2002 - “Military Response to Fourth Generation Warfare in Afghanistan”