01 November 2004 - Special Report - Supplement to INT10-304 ERRI Continues to Try to Assist in Understanding of U.S. Military "Transformation"    By C. L. Staten, CEO and Sr. National Security Analyst,  Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI)    CHICAGO, IL: During the past week we have featured several articles discussing various parts of so-called "revolution in military affairs," and/or what is also being called "military transformation" by some experts. Our purpose in featuring the articles is to show our support and to help to facilitate a climate for a concept or concepts that we have been advocating for several years. Namely, that the structure, training, doctrine and leadership must shift from the previous "cold-war mentality" to one that will be effective in the face of asymmetric and unconventional warfare that we expect in the 2000's.    On 04/27/98, we wrote; "The nature of global conflict is changing. It is the considered opinion of the Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) that there is a general paradigm shift underway in regard to how future conflicts will unfold. This transition is one of form rather than substance. Mass violence, injuries and deaths will continue to occur, although we believe they will happen in different places and in differing ways than one might currently imagine" (1).    Current events would suggest that our estimate that; "What is far more possible, however, in the coming decade, are an increasing number of "brush-fire" wars, counter-insurgency campaigns, hostage rescue operations, "drug wars," low intensity conflicts, urban combat, and "peacekeeping operations" that will require a vastly different set of tactics, equipment, training and skills than conventional military engagements of the past. Future conflicts, at least in the near term, may not involve commitments of massive numbers of troops to fixed battle zones, but will likely involve combating small units of fanatical terrorists using Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and other sophisticated tactics and technologies. As former Commandant of the of the Marine Corps General Charles C. Krulak, liked to say, the United States will often be fighting engagements that are more like Somalia, Haiti, and Bosnia than they are like Desert Storm." (2)    On 24 Sep 2001, only eleven days after the horrendous and earth-shaking attacks on the WTC, Pentagon, and on a field in Pennsylvania, we spoke to the issue of "What We Expect in The Coming "War on Terrorism"(3). In that article we quote three seemingly pertinent cliches' that are relevant to the advocacy of the "transformation" of our military.    They include:    A. "We have to learn from the mistakes of others, we may not live long enough to make them all ourselves..."    ERRI translation and comment: We need to rapidly immerse ourselves in the "Lessons Learned" by the Israeli Defense forces, Indian and Pakistani counter-terrorist forces, the Russian Defense Ministry, and Philippine military and police forces, among others...as they have been fighting this type of guerilla war in urban areas for several years.    B. "Those who don't learn from History are doomed to repeat it."    ERRI translation and comment: The long and bloody history of conflict in Afghanistan should provide a roadmap for areas and strategies to avoid. Much can be learned from the Russian experience in that region.    C. "America's military forces are famous for wanting to prepare to fight the last war...not the next one."    ERRI translation and comment: While some leaders have advocated a "revolution in military affairs," this war on terrorism will probably require new and unconventional tactics that will be comprised of both high and low-tech solutions. To attain success, it is believed that HUMINT (human intelligence) must be dramatically improved, and that abilities be developed to enable new highly mobile and extremely lethal forces to be rapidly deployed to multiple "hotspots" simultaneously.(4)    Apparently, Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, USA, tends to agree with us concerning this need for renovation of both our attitudes, doctrines, and forces structures. Gen Hughes in a major analysis entitled "GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO THE UNITED STATES AND ITS INTERESTS ABROAD" (5) said, "The abrupt end of the Cold War, the rapid spread of western values, ideals, and institutions, and the dramatic personal, societal, and global changes underway as a result of the global village phenomenon and broad technology proliferation, are changing fundamental concepts, beliefs, and allegiances in many areas of the world. Those peoples, groups, and governments who are unable to cope with or unwilling to embrace these changes frequently resent the dominant role played by the United States in the international security environment, and attempt to undermine US and western influence and interests. Two aspects of this condition are particularly noteworthy. First, although there is not at present an ideology that is both inimical to our interests and widely appealing, one could conceivably arise under the rhetoric of providing a counterpoint to western culture.    Second, the perception of western political, economic, and especially military "dominance" means that many of our enemies will choose asymmetric means to attack our interests -- that is, pursuing courses of action that attempt to take advantage of their perceived strengths while exploiting our perceived weaknesses. At the "strategic" level, this probably means seeking to avoid direct military confrontation with US forces; at the operational and tactical levels it means seeking ways of "leveling the playing field" if forced to engage the US military."    Finally, military analysts Greg Wilcox and USMC Col. G. I. Wilson are further explaining some of the many facets of this emerging issue and the implications thereof in two major articles (6) (7) that that explain Fourth Generation Warfare and it's impact on the configuration and training of future U.S. forces and policy.    We will continue to examine this process of modernization of our thinking, national policies, military forces, and explore the ways that the United States and her allies can effectively battle the scourge of global terrorism, win at asymmetric and 4th Generation warfare, and better prepare for the defense of the democracies in the coming decade.    References:    (1) Asymmetric Warfare, the Evolution and Devolution of Terrorism; The Coming Challenge For Emergency and National Security Forces, Staten, C. L. -- can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/asymetrc.htm  (2) Ibid  (3) "WAR ON TERROR-2001; What We Expect in The Coming "War on Terrorism," excerpted from 24 Sep 2001-INT/ESR Vol. 5-7, No. 273, and can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2001/war-on-terror-2001.htm  (4) Ibid  (5) GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO THE UNITED STATES AND ITS INTERESTS ABROAD,  Statement For The Senate Select Committee On Intelligence, 05 February 1997, whicih can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/glblthrt.htm  (6) “Military Response to Fourth Generation Warfare in Afghanistan,” 5 May 2002, Wilcox, G and Wilson, G. I., which can can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2002/4gw5may02.htm  (7) "Anticipating the Nature of the Next Conflict," 19 Feb 2001, Wilson, G.I., Bunkers, F., and Sullivan, J.P. -- which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/Emergent-thrts.htm    Other helpful reading:    'Urban Warfare Considerations; Understanding and Combating Irregular and Guerilla Forces During A "Conventional War" In Iraq," 29 March 2003, which can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2003/urban_warfare_considerations.htm    Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, 10:00 a.m., Tuesday, February 24, 2004  Testimony of Mr. George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency  Mr. Robert S. Mueller, III, Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)  Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby (USN), Director, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)  http://intelligence.senate.gov/0402hrg/040224/witness.htm      Emergency Response & Research Institute  EmergencyNet News  6348 N. Milwaukee Ave. #312  Chicago, IL 60646  (773) 631-3774 - Voice/Messages  (773) 631-4703 - Facsimile  http://www.emergency.com - Main webpage  sysop@mail.emergency.com - E-mail